Volkswagen Non-Voting Pref Shares

Disposed of VW after long consideration. The effective loss was around 25-30%. I don't feel like sitting it out, as I've said goodbye to individual shares anyway and it no longer fits in with my investment strategy.

What do you think about $VOW3 (-1.43%)? Do you think the share will recover or will it continue to fall? I'm currently thinking about shifting the money into something else

Report on the political and economic situation in Germany

After prolonged tensions and disagreements over the economic policy course, particularly with regard to the debt brake and investmentsChancellor Olaf Scholz effectively ended the traffic light coalition on November 6, 2024 with the dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) ended. The FDP then withdrew from the government and left the previous coalition with the Greens and the SPD broke up. Scholz sharply criticized Lindner's financial policy and accused him of using one-sided austerity policy the urgently needed modernization and promotion of growth in Germany.

In order to clarify the situation and "secure" the confidence of the Bundestag Scholz held a vote of confidence for January 15, 2025 has been announced. Should he lose this, the path for new elections would already be open end of March 2025 would be free. The CDU/CSU however, are calling for a quicker vote and are banking on new elections as early as January. Until the new elections, Scholz would form a minority government with the Greens lead.

The upcoming new elections could lead to a clear change of direction in Germany. Currently, the CDU/CSU dominate the opinion polls with around 32%. Voters who are disappointed with the previous traffic light coalition could now switch to a more conservative, more business-friendly program program. It is assumed that the election campaign topics will primarily focus on economic policy issues. At a time when Germany is struggling with weak economic growth, investment laziness and infrastructural challenges issues surrounding the debt brakefinancing public investment and ways to revive the economy could play a central role.

The political instability could short-term put pressure on the DAX $DAX under pressure in the short term. The index recently reached 19,275 points, a record high. Especially the sectors automotive industry ($VOW3 (-1.43%) | $MBG (-0.53%) | $BMW (-1.54%) ), the energy sector ($RWE (-0.87%) | $EOAN (+0.26%) ) and infrastructure companies could be affected by increased volatility due to their dependence on government increased volatility but this would also be limited.

At the heart of the crisis is the question of whether the debt brake can be loosened to allow urgently needed investments in infrastructure, education and digitalization to be financed. The possibility of a new government pursuing a looser fiscal policy could have a positive effect on the German economy and remove barriers to investment. reduce barriers to investment reduce barriers to investment.

A clear economic policy signal after the new elections could boost the confidence of investors and the long-term growth prospects of Germany. Election campaign topics such as structural reforms, improvement the competitiveness and investments in a sustainable infrastructure could lead Germany into a phase of sustainable growth.

Unfortunately, the political crisis comes at a time of geopolitical change, particularly with Donald Trump's return to the White House. Germany's role on the international stage, especially in transatlantic transatlantic relations and in trade issuescould be influenced by this realignment. The possibility of punitive tariffs or changes in US policy could economic policy decisions and investment decisions German companies even more difficult.

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/daFPRwE-j8E?si=rm959Ks8BvcSsCC6

Sunday:

Strong competition is causing profits in China's automotive industry to slump. In addition, data continues to point to high deflationary pressure and subdued demand for credit. China's economy is probably recovering more slowly than expected. The quarterly figures for car manufacturers and the luxury industry have already hinted at this development.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-chinas-industriegewinne-brechen-ein/100083447.html

Monday:

As Israel has spared Iran's oil facilities, the price of oil falls significantly. The markets are thus pricing in an increasing escalation of the conflict.

https://www.t-online.de/finanzen/aktuelles/wirtschaft/id_100518666/oelpreis-sinkt-aktuell-trotz-angriff-auf-iran-schwaches-china-als-ursache.html

Tuesday:

$GOOGL (-5.23%) Alphabet once again surprises analysts in a positive sense. Revenue increases by 15 %. Cloud and advertising business in particular drive the result. YouTube is also growing faster than expected. Quarterly revenue increased to USD 88.27 billion.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/tech-konzern-cloud-geschaeft-und-werbeeinnahmen-schieben-alphabet-an/100082032.html

Real estate prices in the USA 🇺🇸 reach a new all-time high. Prices rose by a further 4.2 % in August compared to the previous year. In Germany, on the other hand, prices have corrected in recent years. In New York City, prices have even risen by 8.1%. Followed by Las Vegas, Chicago, Cleveland and Detroit.

https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/case-shiller/

Wednesday:

$VOW3 (-1.43%) VW presents its figures and, as expected, they are poor. The operating margin in Q3 is still at 3.6%. The forecast for the year as a whole is 5.6%. VW must therefore deliver strong figures in Q4, otherwise a further forecast reduction is imminent. Cost savings seem unavoidable after these quarterly figures. However, wage negotiations with the IG-Metall trade union are due to start right now.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/volkswagen-vw-gewinn-bricht-im-dritten-quartal-dramatisch-ein/100081845.html

$KGX (-2.89%) Kion is growing in terms of turnover and is increasing EBIT significantly. The company's cash flow is also increasing. In particular, lower-margin old orders were processed, which increased EBIT.

https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten-amp/EQS-News-KION-Group-erzielt-starkes-Ergebnis-und-steigert-Profitabilitaet-in-den-ersten-neun-Monaten-des-GJ-2024/36628115

Inflation in Germany rose to 2.0%, which is exactly in line with the ECB's target. The main reason for this is a slight increase in energy prices in October. However, the effect is likely to be reversed again next month due to the sharp fall in oil prices.

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/die-inflation-in-deutschland-steigt-auf-2-prozent-110078902.html

Thursday:

The Bank of Japan leaves key interest rates unchanged. This was expected and prevents further distortions due to the carry trade, among other things.

https://ch.marketscreener.com/kurs/wahrung/EURO-JAPANESE-YEN-EUR-JPY-4592/news/Japanische-Notenbank-halt-Zinsen-stabil-48215141/

Friday:

$AAPL (+0.52%) Apple records growth in sales and profits, but the share still loses ground, this has to do with a cautious forecast. Turnover will only increase in the low to medium percentage range. Investors are also concerned about a decline in sales in China.

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/ikonzern-mit-zahlenvorlage-apple-aktie-sinkt-dennoch-apple-mit-zuwaechsen-bei-umsatz-und-gewinn-13968697

Key dates for the coming week:

Tuesday: Presidential election (USA)

Wednesday: 11:00 Producer prices (EU)

Thursday: 13:00 Interest rate decision (UK)

What other important dates can you think of?

#uswahl
#trump
#harris
#uk
#eu

Withdrawal from the automotive sector now only missing $VOW3 (-1.43%) and $MBG (-0.53%) but I'm still hoping for a few percent 😅

Volkswagen Opportunity $VOW3 (-1.43%) .

Volkswagen group, is the largest automotive company in the world. It owns companies such as: Audi, SEAT, Škoda, Cupra ... It also owns luxury car companies such as: Lamborghini, Bentley or Bugatti.

It currently has a capitalization of 48B Euros, with a PER of 3.16. It has never been so low in relation to the PER.

The most surprising thing is that it holds 75% of the shares of $P911 (-2.39%) which has a capitalization of 64B, about 48B belong to Volkswagen.

This means that the entire capitalization of Volkswagen is Porche shares. And all the other companies mentioned at the beginning have a capitalization of 0.

Just imagine saying that Audi or Lamborghini are worth 0. It's crazy!!!

Just like that into Volkswagen.

I see it as risky in the short and medium term, but in the long term I am convinced that I can look forward to nice dividends.

...let's see what happens