Hugo Boss
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Dates week 33
As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.
Also as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/Jo7cv6cxIg8?si=c1Uqneo64xq-qDbo
Monday:
Contrary to the industry trend $BOSS (-0.61%) HUGO BOSS grows in Q2. Sales increase by 1%, and the 27% growth in profits is particularly impressive. The annual forecast was also confirmed.
The $DHL (-0.9%) DHL Group also surprised positively. Although the logistics group's turnover fell due to customs uncertainty, profits increased thanks to cost-cutting measures. EBIT improved by 6% to 1.4 billion euros in Q2.
https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/dhl-group-positive-ueberraschung-20384361.html
Tuesday:
Data from the ISM index for the services sector fell short of expectations. This led to major setbacks in the US on Tuesday afternoon. While almost all data (business activity, prices, supplier deliveries) improved, there was a setback in the area of expectations.
Thursday:
In a narrow decision, the Bank of England has also already decided to cut interest rates to 4%. This could be a harbinger of an interest rate cut in the US.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yprwyxjlxo.amp
These are the most important dates in the coming week:
Tuesday: 14:30 Inflation data (USA)
Thursday: 11:00 Economic data (EUR)
Thursday: 14:30 Producer prices (USA)
Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments
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Something completely different
Not only $UNH (-0.25%) and $NOVO B (-0.2%) .
Today I would like to introduce interested derivatives traders to a very risky, but also extremely lucrative opportunity on a German second-line stock, as was the case with AMD a few weeks ago.
A discount certificate on $BOSS (-0.61%)
Why and what it can do
@Klein-Anleger1 MK2014
I believe the new investor Frasers Group now has 25% and options on the total over 5%. If they exercise them and get over 30% a takeover bid is due. They also want to vote against the dividend and prefer to invest the money in growth.
The discounter has a base of €50 and a cap of €55. This means that if the share rises to at least €55 by December 19, it will be worth €5. That would be around 900% worthless below €50. In between 1 to 1. Hot trade, but if it works!!! The first exciting date is the quarterly figures on Tuesday.
I have risked a small position.
Hügö Böss as Ahmed says
Fraser increased its stake in the Hugo Boss Group to over 25%.
The British retailer is now demanding that the HB Group suspend future dividends.
In addition, HB is to start a 2% buyback and retirement of existing shares.
Fraser has further PUT options to grow to over 57%.
Dates week 20
As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.
Also as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/gGuvm-ufS6g?si=n_oieHiKS3DMhl4K
Tuesday:
At $BOSS (-0.61%) HUGO BOSS performed worse in the first quarter than in the previous year. Sales fell to 999 million euros from 1.014 billion in the previous year. Profit also fell from 57 to 52 million euros. However, there were special effects in the previous year, and the Group believes it is still on track for its annual targets.
Good news for future inflation. Producer prices, a leading indicator of inflation, have turned out to be lower than expected. In the eurozone, prices fell by 1.6% month-on-month. Compared to the previous year, the increase was 1.9 %; experts had expected 2.5 %. Lower energy prices are primarily responsible for the decline.
https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten-amp/Eurozone-Erzeugerpreise-fallen-staerker-als-erwartet/37359135
Wednesday:
The Fed demonstrates its independence. Despite Trump's calls for interest rate cuts, the Fed leaves key interest rates at 4.25 - 4.5%.
Thursday:
The Bank of England cuts interest rates and welcomes news of a trade deal with the US, although it has not been informed of the details. The prime rate is cut from 4.5% to 4.25%.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c33zve8zmg6t
These are the most important dates for the coming week:
Tuesday: 14:30 Inflation data (USA)
Thursday: 14:30 Producer prices (USA)
Friday: 16:00 Consumer Confidence (USA)
Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇
Hugo Boss: Uncertainties could weigh on outlook
Hugo Boss reported sales of 999.0 million euros (-1.5 percent) for the first quarter. The consensus was 974.0 million euros. Adjusted EBIT fell by 11.6 percent to 61.0 million euros. The market was expecting 50.0 million euros.
For the year as a whole, the fashion group is forecasting sales of between 4.2 billion euros and 4.4 billion euros. EBIT is expected to be between 380 million euros and 440 million euros. The Baader analysts' model is based on 4.3 billion euros or 386.1 million euros. There are a number of uncertainties for the rest of the year, including the US tariffs. It is therefore not entirely clear whether the targets are really realistic.
The experts maintain their buy recommendation for Hugo Boss shares. The price target remains unchanged at 45.00 euros.
The experts at Warburg also maintain their buy recommendation for Hugo Boss shares. The target price here is 69.00 euros. The latest quarterly figures are above the analysts' estimates.
Hugo Boss shares (WKN: A1PHFF, ISIN: DE000A1PHFF7, Chart, News) gained 6.0 percent to 38.59 euros. Over the past twelve months, the share price has fallen by almost 20 percent.
https://www.4investors.de/nachrichten/boerse.php?sektion=stock&ID=183476
Why I would not invest in LVMH & Co. at the moment
First of all: I don't want to talk down anyone's investments here. Everyone has their own strategy - that is important and right. Nevertheless, I am sharing my personal assessment of luxury stocks such as LVMH, Christian Dior, Moncler, Prada, etc.
In the years 2020 to 2023 - during and after the pandemic - the luxury sector experienced a real boom. Restrictions in everyday life, no restaurant visits, canceled vacations - many people suddenly had more money in their bank accounts that they actually wanted to spend. And what happened? The luxury companies' marketing machines were running at full speed. Influencers, FOMO, exclusivity - luxury became the new must-have.
T-shirts that might cost 1 dollar to produce were sold for 500-1000 dollars. Bags without a logo were suddenly considered worthless. And champagne only Moët, please - nothing else. You either belonged - or you didn't. Clever hype, without question. The companies were delighted. Record sales, new stores, more staff.
But now? Inflation, price rises, economic headwinds. Official inflation may be 0.3-0.4 % - in reality, we are all feeling something completely different. Housing, food, travel - everything is becoming significantly more expensive. And this is having an impact: the middle class, which helped fuel the luxury boom, is slowly returning to its senses. A Gucci shirt for 1000 dollars? No longer bought. Many items end up on platforms second-hand at a 90% discount - in the hope of getting at least a fraction of the money back.
Of course, there is always a small target group that can and wants to afford real luxury - no question about it. But the mass hype? Over in my opinion. Similar to watches, Pokémon cards, expensive wine & whiskey - it was a trend. And trends pass.
The current economic and geopolitical outlook does not exactly point to a new boom in this sector. There is also a growing awareness: Paying $1,000 for a shirt that's already crumbling after seven washes doesn't exactly seem like a smart decision to many, looking back.
I don't want to make a blanket statement here: "Luxury is bad" - on the contrary, I love beautiful things just as much. But for me, it's not an investment, it's a desire, a pleasure - like a nice car or a good watch.
Conclusion: The current weakness of LVMH & Co. comes as no surprise to me. It will be interesting to see what happens next. But my capital is flowing into other sectors for the time being.
$MC
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$1913
$BOSS (-0.61%)
$RMS (-0.5%)
$CDI
#luxus
#luxusmarken
Dates week 12
As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming week.
Also as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/cpIdQFYiLeY?si=gaKXoxc1Q7c_VbNC
Sunday:
Due to industrial overcapacity, deflation is depressing prices in China. Prices there fell by an average of 0.7% compared to the same month last year. The reason for the decline was probably a high basis for comparison from the previous year, as well as government programs to boost consumption.
Monday:
$HFG Hellofresh shocks the markets with a sales warning, down more than 10%. Analysts at JP Morgan continue to see the price target at 15 euros. This is because EBITDA is expected to rise again. Hellofresh is dispensing with expensive marketing campaigns, which hurts sales but may increase profits.
Tuesday:
$VOW3 Volkswagen is struggling with a drop in sales and profits. Overall, 2.3% fewer vehicles were sold. Sales for 2024 increased minimally by one percent to 324.7 billion euros. Profit fell from 17.8 to 12.3 billion euros.
Wednesday:
$P911 (-0.74%) Porsche earns significantly less. Similar to VW, profits are down by around 30%. The dividend is to remain stable. Turnover is also expected to stagnate in 2025.
Not only is Rheinmetall's share price rising $RHM (+1.97%) Rheinmetall is rising, sales are also increasing significantly. Rheinmetall could grow by 34% in 2024. Growth of 25-30% is also expected for 2025. Rheinmetall achieved sales of just under 10 billion euros in 2024. The order backlog grew to 55 billion euros. The dividend is set to rise from 5.70 to 8.10 euros per share.
$TMV Teamviewer is celebrating its 20th anniversary, which means the tech company from Göppingen has been around longer than the average lifespan of a German company (around 12 years). Click here for a summary of the company's history:
US inflation data comes in lower than expected, market bounces back. Compared to the same month last year, prices rose by 2.8%. An increase of 2.9% was expected.
Thursday:
The fashion group $BOSS (-0.61%) Hugo Boss from Metzingen wants to increase its dividend to 1.40 euros per share. At 4.31 billion euros, turnover was three percent above the previous year's figure and higher than ever before. Declining sales in China were a particular burden on the Group. Profit therefore fell by 17% to 217 million euros. In the coming year, turnover is expected to stagnate, but profitability is set to increase.
Companies such as $DTG (-1.31%) Daimler Truck fell significantly after Donald Trump announced that he would relax the emissions regulations for trucks. Daimler in particular has invested billions of dollars in recent years to make its trucks environmentally friendly.
With the inflation rate in the USA already below expectations, producer prices are also below expectations. This is particularly interesting, as producer prices are a leading indicator for inflation in the future.
https://www.ariva.de/amp/usa-erzeugerpreise-steigen-weniger-als-erwartet-11567717
Friday:
As with $VOW3 VW, BMW's profits are also on the decline. BMW achieved a profit of 7.7 billion euros, 37% less than a year ago. Turnover fell by 8.2% to 142 billion euros. China is the main problem for BMW.
These are the most important dates for the coming week:
Wednesday: 04:00 Interest rate decision (Japan)
Wednesday: 19:00 Interest rate decision (USA)
Thursday: 12:00 Interest rate decision (BoE)
Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇
Repurchase HUGO BOSS
Following the quarterly figures for HUGO BOSS, the company is on a clear downward trend. We have used the loss to make a purchase.
Things are generally going badly for the fashion industry at the moment. HB stands out positively in our view. The company was able to increase sales and cash flow last year, bucking the industry trend. However, the share is currently 50% below the price level at which we made a partial sale.
The new campaign with Beckham should also increase profitability. In our view, the sales forecast is cautious, as the company recently had to lower its forecast. We believe that there could be one or two positive surprises here.
What do you think?
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