$TMV (+1.45%)

📊 𝐄𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐛𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐞

• Q2 Revenue: €182.7 million (-1.4% cc)

• ARR: €736.8 million (-0.1% cc)

• Enterprise ARR: +8.3% cc

• Adjusted EBITDA: €78.9 million

• Adjusted EBITDA margin: 43.2%

⠀

🎯 𝐀𝐮𝐬𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐤

• 2026 guidance confirmed

• Revenue growth (cc): 0% to +3%

• Adjusted EBITDA margin: approximately 43%

⠀

📌 Key Points

• DEX business is undergoing the expected turnaround; enterprise customers are renewing contracts for the long term

• TeamViewer ONE is gaining significant momentum and driving cross-selling and upselling

• SMB customer churn stabilizes; growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year

• AI adoption rises to 49,000 customers; ServiceNow partnership strengthens the long-term growth story

⠀

💬 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭-𝐀𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐚𝐠𝐞

“Our business has reached a turning point: As expected, we are seeing a turnaround in the DEX business and stabilization in the SMB segment. With this momentum, we are well on track to accelerate growth in the second half of the year and confirm our full-year forecast.”

Tuesday:

$BMW (-0.65%) BMW lowers its forecast. Developments in the Middle East and China, in particular, are weighing on the company’s annual targets. In China, the auto market reportedly slumped by 20% overall in May. This is fueling further discount wars there, from which German automakers tend to stay out.

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/bmw-muenchen-krise-gewinnwarnung-sparprogramm-li.3500059

Thursday:

In the Fed’s first interest rate decision under Kevin Warsh, the interest rate remains unchanged. For the first time in a long while, this decision was also unanimous. Warsh emphasizes, above all, the Fed’s role in keeping inflation in check.

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/fed-leitzins-154.html

Friday:

The German defense contractor $RHM (-0.14%) Rheinmetall is looking to enter the weapons production market in Japan and is exploring a potential investment. The plan is to potentially produce weapons for the Japanese domestic market as well as for export.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/expansion-rheinmetall-prueft-einstieg-in-die-waffenproduktion-in-japan/100234399.html

The German software company $TMV (+1.45%) TeamViewer has once again received an award from Gartner for its AI platform, TeamViewer One. The platform combines remote access with AR. It also features an integrated AI agent named “Tia” that independently resolves IT issues. However, what will be particularly interesting is a look at the Q2 figures and whether this technological leadership can also be translated into growth.

https://www.finanztrends.de/news/teamviewer-aktie-0-3-prozent-guidance-bremst-kurs/

Like every Sunday, the most important news from the past week.

Tuesday:

$BOSS (+0.12%) Hugo Boss makes 6% less turnover, but exceeds market expectations with 905 million euros in the first quarter. The annual targets are confirmed.

https://www.finanzen.net/amp/schwaches-auftaktquartal-hugo-boss-aktie-verliret-ziele-2026-nach-schwachem-q1-bestaetigt-15658976

Wednesday:

The figures from $TMV (+1.45%) Teamviewer are in line with expectations, overall sales are more or less stagnant. The company confirms its sales forecast and expects growth in the second half of the year in particular.

https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten-amp/EQS-News-TeamViewer-Q1-2026-Umsatz-im-Rahmen-der-Erwartungen-Enterprise-ARR-um-8-Prozent-cc-gewachsen-Prognose-fuer-das-Gesamtjahr-bestaetigt/38312224

Thursday:

Industrial orders in Germany increase significantly by 5% compared to the previous month. However, the effects of the Iran war are hardly reflected in the March data. Experts are also talking about possible pull-forward effects due to the Iran war.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-industrie-ueberrascht-mit-kraeftigem-auftragsplus/100223114.html

Friday:

Germany also reported a trade surplus in March. Exports amounted to 135.8 billion euros and imports to 121.5 billion euros. Exports to EU countries grew. However, less was exported to the USA and China.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/konjunktur-deutsche-exporte-wachsen-produktion-geht-zurueck/100223455.html

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/21xqwzbxw48?is=zGsPQgv-ZDcN6BX2

The reporting season starts again and $GS (+0.25%) Goldman Sachs reports the best quarter in 5 years. Profit rose to USD 5.4 billion. Profits rose in equity trading in particular, benefiting from the volatile environment.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/quartalszahlen-goldman-sachs-vermeldet-bestes-quartal-seit-fuenf-jahren/100215039.html

Wednesday:

As Germany's largest oil supplier, Norway is currently benefiting enormously from the Iran war. The country's oil exports rose by 68% compared to the previous month. This is mainly because the price of Brent crude has risen significantly.

https://m.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/live-ticker-zum-iran-israel-beginnt-angriff-auf-mullahs-696036f24d1d5f581eeb0751#69df6c8175f529c19cc2be07

Thursday:

GDP in the UK grew by a surprisingly strong 0.5% compared to the previous month. Economists had expected only 0.2%, meaning that the economy is in good shape shortly before the outbreak of the Iran war.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/konjunktur-britische-wirtschaft-waechst-stark/100217434.html

Inflation in the eurozone has risen more sharply than originally expected. Instead of 2.5%, the inflation rate in March was 2.6%. The ECB's target is 2.0%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/ezb-inflation-im-euro-raum-steigt-noch-staerker-an-als-erwartet/100217448.html

Friday:

Short squeeze at $TMV (+1.45%) TeamViewer - TeamViewer presents a new AI tool in cooperation with Bechtle and the share shoots through the roof. This also has to do with the still high short seller ratio, but they are slowly covering their positions.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/20746489-beachtet-teamviewer-aktie-bestaetigt-positiven-trend-5-33-17-04-2026

The most important dates for the coming week:

Wednesday: 12:00 Buba report (DE)

Thursday: 15:45 S&P Manufacturing (USA)

Friday: 10:00 ifo expectations (DE)

#bundesbank
#industriedaten
#ifo
#erwartungen
#news

Can you think of any other dates?

Does anyone remember the movie "Seven"?

$TMV (+1.45%) apparently thought that the "Gwen-Box" would be a great mascot...

And because I have to work with the Bums, this monster now looks into my soul every day. *help plz* 😱

The $TMV (+1.45%) share, now the largest position in our portfolio, continues to fall. It is noticeable that short selling continues to increase.

The short selling ratio is now over 10% and the short sellers are continually adding to their positions. We are doing the same, only we are increasing our holdings further.

The most interesting thing is who is shorting the shares. It is mainly funds that only look at the chart and use trends to trade.

This makes the purchase by value investor Harris Associates all the more exciting. It now holds more than 3% of the shares and mainly buys shares that it believes are fundamentally undervalued.

https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten/EQS-PVR-TeamViewer-SE-Veroeffentlichung-gemaess-40-Abs-1-WpHG-mit-dem-Ziel-der-europaweiten-Verbreitung/38144319

It is clear that the trend points to a further fall in share prices. However, if you ignore the chart (in our view, the astrology of share trading), you will find a valuation that would only be justified if the company no longer generates any sales in 10 years at the latest. The company currently has a KCV of around 4, a forward P/E ratio in the 5 range and a dividend yield of 25% could be paid from the cash flow.

Even with years of 0% growth, we believe this is a valuation that perhaps logistics companies had for a short time during the coronavirus crisis.

With our $TMV (+1.45%) Teamviewer investment, we are still somewhat perplexed about the current valuation and why this phase has lasted so long. Now there is also the sell-off from seemingly all software providers, which is further depressing the share price.

However, we have the feeling that the already incredibly favorable valuation of Teamviewer is not being taken into account by the market.

Anyone who currently buys shares for 10,000 euros will achieve a potentially distributable cash flow of 2,500 euros per year with these shares.

What are the future prospects? Will remote maintenance still be needed at a time when AI is taking over all tasks? We think more urgently than ever, Teamviewer already has the solution to the dystopian horror scenarios with its remote maintenance software. Just imagine Terminator, but with the Teamviewer remote maintenance software installed.

What do you think about the Teamviewer case, but also about the sale of software providers in general?

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/4ZThZYix0C8?si=sUkcM25twrQFcVyI

Monday:

Things are still not going so well in the US manufacturing sector. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to a value of 47.9 in December 2025. This is the lowest value in 2025 and was below expectations.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-47-9-december-2025-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302649307.html

Tuesday:

Saudi Arabia opens domestic market to foreign investors. The capital market is opened to all types of foreign investment.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DTK_PZujonx/?igsh=ZXd0aW85YTFldXls

Significantly less inflationary pressure. In December, the inflation rate fell to 1.8%. For 2025 as a whole, the average inflation rate was 2.2%, the same as in 2024.

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/konjunktur/inflation-deutschland-202.html

Wednesday:

The unemployment rate in Germany continues to rise to 6.2%. This means that a total of 2.908 million people were registered as unemployed in December.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/beschaeftigung-mehr-arbeitslose-im-dezember-quote-steigt-auf-62-prozent/100189239.html

Friday:

$TMV (+1.45%) Teamviewer can rise significantly in pre-market trading. This is due to preliminary figures on turnover and EBITDA margin. Teamviewer can meet the forecast here. Turnover in 2025 was probably 767 million euros. The acquisition of 1E was a particularly positive surprise, with revenue growth also achieved for the first time.

https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten-amp/EQS-News-TeamViewer-erfuellt-pro-forma-Topline-Prognose-fuer-Geschaeftsjahr-2025/38083000

Good news from the EU. After 25 years, the free trade agreement with the Mercosur states (Paraguay, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay) is likely to be adopted. Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Paraguay next week for this purpose.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/freihandel-eu-staaten-stimmen-fuer-mercosur-abkommen/100189360.html

The US labor market report was worse than expected. This was well received for the time being, as it makes a further interest rate cut more likely.

https://de.marketscreener.com/boerse-nachrichten/maerkte-usa-schwacher-us-arbeitsmarktbericht-daempft-zinssenkungshoffnungen-ce7e59d3d880f621

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Monday: 10:30 Sentix survey (EUR)

Tuesday: 14:30 Inflation data (USA)

Wednesday: 14:30 Producer prices (USA)

#sentix
#inflation
#erzeugerpreise
#eu
#usa

Can you think of any other dates?