Even though I $KTN (+0.32%) Kontron $ZAL (-2.37%) Zalando and $VER (+3.01%) Verbund still have potential. With the drop in prices, capital can soon be deployed more profitably. I also expect a backlash from the EU and all other affected countries in the next few days, which could result in another downward jolt.

According to the motto that only realized profits are real profits, I am waiting to see what happens over the next few days...

@Epi I need an insider tip on when would be a good time to top up your certificate😅

Zalando $ZAL (-2.37%) has big plans and wants to take over its smaller rival About You by the summer. This majority takeover is a strategic step to strengthen its market position and expand its reach in online retail. Zalando intends to squeeze out the remaining shareholders of About You. The amount of cash compensation that will be offered as part of this squeeze-out is still unknown. However, Zalando assures to make an "appropriate offer" after the deal is finalized. On Friday, About You shares remained stable at 6.66 euros, which is higher than Zalando's offer of 6.50 euros. This could make the negotiations even more exciting, as it gives shareholders an incentive to consider whether or not they want to accept the offer.

In the USA, Mercedes-Benz $MBG (-2.59%) also has big plans and wants to significantly expand its military vehicle business. The head of the Special Trucks division sees huge opportunities in this area and wants to significantly increase market share. The focus is on developing innovative solutions for military applications and expanding the product range. However, details of the specific plans have not yet been published. With this expansion, the company wants to position itself in a growing market that could become increasingly important in the coming years. With these steps, Mercedes-Benz wants to secure its competitiveness in a rapidly changing environment and open up new areas of business.

Sources:

https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/handel/zalando-uebernahme-von-about-you-soll-im-sommer-abgeschlossen-sein-a-17a3ea76-7de7-421a-894f-d54ab99e140e

https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/autoindustrie/mercedes-benz-special-trucks-chefin-moechte-geschaeft-mit-militaerfahrzeugen-ausbauen-a-ae007afa-6c16-4b98-a144-2ad64fe43e05

The analyst conference of Zalando ($ZAL (-2.37%) ) began with a presentation by co-CEOs Robert Gentz and David Schröder.

Robert Gentz emphasized that Zalando had achieved its strategy and financial targets last year, despite a challenging market. He emphasized the adaptation to customer needs and the investments in the platform. Gentz pointed out that Zalando is transforming from a platform to an ecosystem in order to gain a larger market share. In the B2C area, Zalando wants to become the first port of call for high-quality fashion and lifestyle, while strong growth is targeted in the B2B area. David Schröder added that Zalando plans to merge with ABOUT YOU, which is an important step forward.

Gentz mentioned that 2024 is the first year since the pandemic in which e-commerce penetration in Europe returns to its long-term growth trend. He was optimistic about the long-term opportunities in a EUR 450 billion market. The GMV increased by 4.5 % to EUR 15.3 billion and sales by 4.2 % to EUR 10.6 billion. The adjusted EBIT exceeded expectations by more than EUR 30 million and reached EUR 511 million, which corresponds to a margin of 4.8 %.

At the end of the year, 51.8 million active customers were served, an all-time high. Spending per customer remained stable at around EUR 295. The gross margin in the B2C business rose by more than 200 basis points to 43.5%.

Sales of EUR 953 million were achieved in the B2B business, an increase of 11.5 % compared to the previous year. The adjusted EBIT amounted to EUR 23 millionwith a margin of 2.4 %. Schröder emphasized the goal of promoting a more sustainable fashion and lifestyle industry and achieving net-zero emissions in its own operations and private labels by 2040.

Robert Gentz addressed the three strategic pillars for the B2C business: Differentiation through quality, lifestyle expansion and inspiration and entertainment. Zalando aims to be the quality leader in European e-commerce for fashion and lifestyle. The company expanded its range to include new brands such as Versace and On Running. The loyalty program has been improved and rewards customers for commitment and purchases. To date, almost 10% of customers participate in this program.

Gentz mentioned the expansion into new markets such as Portugal, Greece and Bulgaria. Zalando plans to enrich the product detail pages to improve conversions. In the area of lifestyle expansion beauty and sport are highlighted as important growth areas. Beauty recorded strong, double-digit growthand new brands such as Armani are being added to the range. In the sports segment, the focus is on sub-segments such as running, outdoor, fitness and soccer. Zalando plans to deepen its offering in these areas in order to strengthen its credibility and expertise.

In the area of inspiration and entertainment, Zalando is testing various formats, including Stories on Zalando. A personalized discovery feed in the Zalando mobile app is planned for 2025.

David Schröder explained the progress made in the B2B area, where Zalando wants to become the operating system for fashion in Europe. In the logistics area, Zalando now serves 12 markets and enables retailers to sell on 10 different channels. He cited Pepe Jeans as an example of the success of ZEOS solutions. Zalando has started a new partnership with NEXT to develop advanced fulfillment capabilities. In the software area, Zalando is working on strategic partnerships with leading sales channels, integrators and store systems.

Robert Gentz addressed the outlook and mentioned the planned acquisition of ABOUT YOU. More than 90% of the shares of ABOUT YOU have already been secured. This takeover will enable Zalando to pursue a dual-brand strategy and expand its B2B offering. In the long term, synergies of around EUR 100 million per year on an EBIT basis are expected. An adjusted EBIT margin of 10% to 13% is targeted for 2028. GMV and sales growth of 4% to 9% is expected for 2025, as well as a further improvement in adjusted EBIT to EUR 530 to 590 million.

In the subsequent Q&A session, the analysts addressed the following topics:

Anne Critchlow from Berenberg asked about the GMV trend in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter and marketing costs. David Schröder replied that the start of the year showed similar positive momentum to the fourth quarter. Marketing costs of 10% of sales in the fourth quarter are not expected to be the new normal level for 2025. Zalando plans to continue to manage its investments based on ROI and expects marketing costs to be in the higher single-digit range.

Jürgen Kolb asked about the expectations for the gross margin and fulfillment costs in 2025. David Schröder explained that Zalando has made a big step in 2024 towards an adjusted EBIT margin of 6% to 8% in 2028. A smaller step is expected for 2025, with the focus remaining on efficiency improvements and the gross margin.

Luke Holbrook from Morgan Stanley asked about the progress of the loyalty programin which 10% of customers are currently participating. Robert GentzCo-CEO, replied that the program will be expanded to 16 countries this year and marketed more strongly, which will lead to accelerated expansion. Holbrook also asked about performance in the first quarter.

David Schröder clarified that the start of the year was similar to the end of the year, with growth in the fourth quarter amounting to 4.8%.

Another analyst asked about the impact of ZMS (Zalando Marketing Services) on the operating result in 2025. David Schröder replied that the loyalty program will have a positive impact on customer numbers and spend per customer, which will translate into lower marketing spend in the long term. However, there will be a temporary accounting effect in the mid double-digit million range in connection with deferred revenue.

An analyst from Bernstein asked about the drivers for the growth of 4 % to 9 % in 2025. Robert Gentz explained that both active customers and GMV per active customer will contribute to growth. The retail business will remain strong, but an increase in the partner business is also expected. With regard to ZMS, Robert Gentz said that the company will achieve double-digit growth in 2024. double-digit growth and expects the same for 202515 . In the long term, Zalando is aiming for a corridor of 3% to 4% for ZMS. David Schröder emphasized the one-stock-pool strategy in which the entire inventory is pooled in one infrastructure to serve multiple channels. The acquisition of ABOUT YOU makes this concept even more attractive.

Another analyst from Stifel inquired about the effects of the trade conflict between the USA and China. Robert Gentz replied that Zalando does not see any immediate impact due to its European base and its mainly Asia-based supply chains. With regard to Chinese companies operating in Europe, Zalando's focus is on high-quality e-commerce with branded products.

He also asked about TikTok stores. Robert Gentz replied that Zalando is curiously watching this and cooperating with TikTok in the UK to learn.

An analyst from UBS asked about the capacities following the commissioning of the warehouse in Paris and the construction of the warehouse in Frankfurt. David Schröder replied that the capacities are sufficient to cover the growth plan until 2028. The partnership with NEXT helps Zalando to understand the requirements of large customers and to develop additional capabilities.

An analyst from RBC asked about the integration costs and synergies of ABOUT YOU. David Schröder replied that Zalando is aiming for long-term synergies of 100 million euros per year on an EBIT basis.

An analyst from Deutsche Bank asked about major brands in the sports and beauty sectorsthat Zalando would like to have on its website. Robert Gentz replied that in the sports sector it is more about expertise in certain sports, while in the beauty sector it is about attracting new brands.

In summary, Zalando is successfully driving forward its ecosystem strategy and has achieved its financial targets for 2024. There are exciting plans for 2025 to further develop the strategy in the areas of B2C and B2B. The planned acquisition of ABOUT YOU fits perfectly into this strategy and offers additional growth opportunities.

I am curious to see how the share will continue after the recent recovery.

Goldman lowers target for Adidas

The US investment bank Goldman Sachs has lowered its target price for Adidas $ADS (-10.97%) from 280 to 270 euros and left the rating at "Neutral". Analyst Richard Edwards has revised his operating earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 slightly downwards following the recently published quarterly figures. These adjustments are the result of earnings that did not quite meet expectations. In addition, the risk-free interest rate in its valuation model has been raised, which has also contributed to analysts becoming more cautious. At Adidas, it remains to be seen how the company will react to these new challenges and whether it can succeed in consolidating or even expanding its own market position.

Relief Therapeutics talks ended

In a surprising turn of events, talks about a merger between Relief Therapeutics and Renexxion have been terminated. The biopharmaceutical company has announced in a recent press release that the negotiations have not led to a satisfactory outcome. Relief Therapeutics is known for its innovative therapies, which have attracted considerable interest in the healthcare industry. The termination of these discussions could have far-reaching implications for the company's future strategy and growth. It remains to be seen how Relief Therapeutics plans its next steps and whether other partnerships may be on the horizon to further expand its product range.

Zalando wants to continue its growth course

The online retailer Zalando $ZAL (-2.37%) is optimistic and expects further growth in sales and operating profit in the current year. The company plans to achieve between four and nine percent more sales and is targeting an increase in adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) to between 530 and 590 million euros. These forecasts are slightly above analysts' expectations and reflect solid growth. Last year, Zalando already recorded sales of just under 10.6 billion euros, which corresponds to an increase of over four percent. The operating result also rose by an impressive 46 percent to 511 million euros. The positive growth forecast has encouraged investors, which is reflected in a pre-market rise in Zalando shares of up to 1.99 percent. It will be exciting to see how Zalando can realize its ambitious goals and which strategies will be used to achieve them.

Sources:

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/analyse-flash-goldman-senkt-ziel-fuer-adidas-auf-270-euro-neutral-14295811

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/relief-therapeutics-aktie-gespraeche-ueber-fusion-mit-renexxion-beendet-14295853

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/zuwaechse-zalando-aktie-profitiert-zalando-strebt-weiteres-umsatz-und-gewinnwachstum-an-14295718

The profit forecasts for the current financial year have risen for 21 of the 40 DAX companies.

According to research by Handelsblatt, analysts have raised their profit estimates for these 7 of the 40 DAX companies by at least five percent in the last three months.

Handelsblatt sheds light on the prospects of these seven companies and their shares with a view to their prospects: the development of earnings this year, the resulting changes in valuation - and how analysts are positioning themselves.

Below is a brief overview, details with further information can be found at "Handelsblatt"

$ENR (-3.42%) The earnings forecasts for Siemens Energy shares are rising most rapidly

$DBK (-6.39%) Deutsche Bank share: Rising profits cause valuation to fall sharply

For $QGEN Qiagen: Difficult times after the pandemic are over

$VNA (+8.1%) Vonovia makes billions in profit after billions in losses

$ZAL (-2.37%) Zalando: Takeover gives new share price potential

$MTX (-2.31%) MTU: Global market leader generates stable earnings

$DTE (+0.36%) Deutsche-Telekom: Unusually strong vote from analysts

Source / Graphics: Handelsblatt, 18.02.25

$ZAL (-2.37%) Zalando's share price has already doubled again in the last 12 months from its low. But there is still plenty of room for improvement 📈

With $YOU (+0.53%) the market share will be further expanded 👆

https://de.investing.com/news/press-releases/eqsnews-about-you-holding-se-vorstand-und-aufsichtsrat-von-about-you-unterstutzen-offentliches-ubernahmeangebot-von-zalando-deutsch-2858330

Total return

1.425,88 €

True time-weighted rate of return

24.37 % That's my balance sheet from January! I am very happy with that! I have sold all my short-term trading positions. I built up my first positions for February yesterday and today. These are derivatives on $ADYEN (-7.26%) (MG9L2B) purchase yesterday at 4.15 $ZAL (-2.37%) ( UG0W0H) Buy today at 5.84 $NOC (-1.11%) (HT21L8) purchase day before yesterday at 1.10 I have planned purchases in $FTNT (-8.58%) ( JT7XG3) $AMZN (-6.32%) ( MJ5V94) $ADS (-10.97%) (ME44Y2) and for a little longer $AXON (-2.13%) (Ht1KYH) I am keeping the remaining powder dry in case there are great opportunities like last Monday.

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week. As well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/6kS3uOc3Gyo?si=ylP3Ik3aaxt4tQ6Q

Monday:

The Dutch pension fund ABP sold all of its $TSLA (-3.59%) Tesla shares. However, the reason for the sale is not Elon Musk's political statements. It was his remuneration model and the working conditions at Tesla. According to Tesla, Musk is entitled to a 56 billion dollar share package that Musk has been fighting over with American courts.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/fonds-etf/tesla-europas-groesster-pensionsfonds-verkauft-alle-tesla-aktien/100100218.html

Tuesday:

$ST5 (-5.23%) Steico exceeded expectations in terms of turnover 376.3 million euros instead of 375 million euros. However, profits were slightly lower than expected. Steico manufactures sustainable insulation materials.

https://www.ecoreporter.de/artikel/steico-mehr-umsatz-weniger-gewinn-aktie-legt-zu/

Producer prices in the USA are less hot than expected. Year-on-year, producer prices rose by 3.3%. However, analysts had expected an increase of 3.5%. Producer prices are regarded as a leading indicator for inflation.

https://www.ariva.de/news/usa-erzeugerpreise-steigen-weniger-als-erwartet-11501258

Wednesday:

The German economy remains in a permanent slump. According to initial estimates, GDP shrank by 0.2% in 2024. This means that GDP has shrunk for two consecutive years (2023: 0.3%). This was last seen in 2002 and 2003 and resulted in Agenda 2010. It is striking that comparable political players were in government in 2002 and 2003, as well as in 2023 and 2024.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/bip-daten-deutsche-wirtschaft-schrumpft-erneut-minus-von-02-prozent/100100833.html

New DAX record at 20,609 points. The reason for the rise is a decline in core inflation in the USA. This reduces the risk of a restrictive monetary policy by the Fed. Core inflation was expected to be 3.3 %, but was actually 3.2 %.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/dax-aktuell-dax-steigt-nach-us-inflationsdaten-auf-neuen-rekord/100100826.html

Thursday:

As the Swiss luxury group $CFR (-4.77%) Richemont presents strong figures, the entire luxury goods sector takes off. Even $KER (-5.3%) Kering and $MC (-4.43%) LVMH were also able to make significant gains. The Christmas quarter went much better than expected.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/commerce-brands-unicorns/richemont-mit-knaller-zahlen-lvmh-kering-und-co-starten-durch-20373118.html

Also $ZAL (-2.37%) Zalando reported a strong final quarter and exceeded its profit targets in Q4. EBIT is likely to rise to 510 million euros, whereas a maximum of 480 million euros was originally forecast.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/online-modehaendler-zalando-uebertrifft-mit-schlussspurt-gewinnziel-fuer-2024/100101118.html

In his first days as President of the European manufacturers' association ACEA, Ola Källenius is campaigning against the CO2 sanctions imposed on car manufacturers. His argument is that we need a market-driven path to decarbonization and not one driven by EU sanctions.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autoverband-acea-ola-kaellenius-wehrt-sich-zu-beginn-seiner-amtszeit-sich-gegen-co2-strafe/100101161.html

Friday:

Trump is likely planning to make cryptocurrencies a national priority and wants to give crypto insiders a voice in the government to do so.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DE6ZsF6R-5v/?igsh=bjgyMGVhemZjMWZx

Industrial production in the US rises by a surprising 0.6% in December. Experts had only expected an increase of 0.2%. Mining and the production of utilities also increased.

https://www.n-tv.de/ticker/Industrieproduktion-in-den-USA-steigt-im-Dezember-ueberraschend-um-0-9-Prozent-article25496778.html

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Monday: 08:00 Producer prices (DE)

Tuesday: 14:30 Inflation data (Canada)

Thursday: 14:30 Unemployment figures (USA)

Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇

#termine
#inflation
#kanada
#erzeugerpreise

UBS raises Zalando to 'Buy' with target up to 40 euros + Interest rate prospects move Wall Street + US inflation data give Bitcoin a boost + Drägerwerk earns more than expected operationally - sales disappoint

UBS raises Zalando $ZAL (-2.37%)to 'Buy' with target up to 40 euros

• The major Swiss bank UBS has upgraded Zalando from "Neutral" to "Buy" and raised its price target from 28 to 40 euros.
• Analyst Yashraj Rajani is significantly more optimistic than the market consensus in his buy recommendation published on Thursday.
• His forecast for the operating result (EBIT) for 2025 is 8 percent higher, even if he expects the online retailer's outlook to be conservative again.
• Zalando is probably in an "upgrade cycle" and is likely to gradually set itself ever higher targets.
• Rajani sees the takeover of About You as an enormous opportunity for value creation.

Leading index rises significantly again

• Investors on Wall Street also reacted positively to the inflation figures, especially in the particularly interest-sensitive technology sector.
• The Nasdaq 100 broke above its 50-day line and is now starting to tackle its consolidation trend from the record in mid-December.
• The core rate of inflation (excluding energy and food), which is particularly important for the Fed's monetary policy, surprisingly fell slightly at the end of 2024.
• This alleviated concerns that the Fed could halt its interest rate cut in 2025 or perhaps even have to raise the key interest rate in the future.

Drägerwerk $DRW3 (-11.45%)earns more than expected in operating terms - sales disappoint

• The medical and safety technology group Drägerwerk did not increase net sales as much as expected last year.
• However, the operating result was better than expected.
• Sales stagnated at 3.37 billion euros, as the SDax-listed company surprisingly announced on Wednesday evening in Lübeck.
• Adjusted for the effects of the strong euro, turnover would have risen by 0.6 percent.
• The Group had recently forecast currency-adjusted growth of between one and three percent.
• The margin based on earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) would have amounted to 5.8 percent (2023: 4.9 percent), slightly higher than recently forecast.
• However, Dräger also benefited from positive one-off effects.
• In 2025, net sales are expected to increase by between one and five percent excluding the impact of currency translation and the operating margin is expected to be between 3.5 and 6.5 percent.
• Following the announcement of the figures on Tradegate, the Dräger share price recently rose by 1.5 percent compared to the Xetra close.
• The share thus tested the interim high from mid-October.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 07:30 TSMC annual results
• 11:55 Unitedhealth quarterly figures
• 12:30 PNC Financial Services | First Horizon quarterly figures
• 12:45 Bank of America quarterly figures
• 13:30 Morgan Stanley quarterly figures
• Untimed: U.S. Bancorp Q4 figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:00 Fraport traffic figures December | Richemont Trading Update 3Q
• 17:45 Vinci Q4 sales
• Unspecified time: Aker ASA Q4 salesz

• Economic data

08:00 DE: Consumer prices (final) December PROGNOSE: +0.4% yoy/+2.6% yoy Preliminary: +0.4% yoy/+2.6% yoy Previous: -0.2% yoy/+2.2% yoy HICP PROGNOSE: +0.7% yoy/+2.8% yoy Preliminary: +0.7% yoy/+2.8% yoy Previous: -0.7% yoy/+2.4% yoy

08:00 UK: GDP month November PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy/+1.1% yoy previously: -0.1% yoy/+1.3% yoy Three-month rate PROGNOSE: -0.1% yoy/ n.a. previously: +0.1% yoy/+1.1% yoy

08:00 UK: Trade Balance November PROGNOSE: -17.9 bn GBP previous: -19.0 bn GBP | Industrial Production November PROGNOSE: 0.0% yoy/-1.5% yoy previous: -0.6% yoy/-0.7% yoy

14:30 US: Retail Sales December FORECAST: +0.5% yoy previous: +0.7% yoy Retail sales ex motor vehicles FORECAST: +0.4% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy

14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) PROGNOSE: 210,000 previous: 201,000 | Philadelphia Fed Index January PROGNOSE: -6.0 previous: -16.4

14:30 US: Import and Export Prices December Import Prices FORECAST: -0.1% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy

16:00 US: Inventories November PROGNOSE: +0.1% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy

Hello Community,

I'm in the process of revising my portfolio and would like to get your opinions and advice. Here is my current thinking:

Portfolio allocation:

Equities (75%):

80 % ETFs (core investments):

MSCI World

NASDAQ 100

DAX

20% individual stocks:

Alphabet $GOOGL (-3.55%)

Apple $AAPL (-6.25%)

Alliance $ALV (-0.37%)

Ahold Delhaize $AD (+2.17%)

Coca-Cola $KO (+0.82%)

LVMH $MC (-4.43%)

Bonds (15 %)

Gold (5 %)

Bitcoin (3 %)

Cash (2 %)

Background

Investment objective:

I am 35 years old and aim for financial freedom at the age of 50 to 55, with a target of €2000 net per month in retirement.

Strategy:

A balanced portfolio construction that includes both high-growth companies and stable dividend stocks, supplemented by diversifications in ETFs, bonds, gold and Bitcoin.

Adjustment considerations:

To make my portfolio more robust, I plan to make the following changes:

Buy:

ASML $ASML (-7.33%) Leader in the semiconductor sector with great long-term growth potential due to trends such as AI and electromobility.

Johnson & Johnson (J&J) $JNJ (+1.02%) : Stable dividend stock (~2.5%), ideal as a defensive anchor in the healthcare sector.

Sell:

Ahold Delhaize $AD (+2.17%) : Good dividend growth, but limited growth prospects.

Unilever $ULVR (+4.45%) : Defensive character, but lower future potential compared to J&J.

Zalando $ZAL (-2.37%) Cyclical consumer stock with increased volatility and questionable growth path.

Coca-Cola $KO (+0.82%) : Good dividend, but limited growth opportunities - could be replaced by more innovative stocks such as ASML.

Questions for you:

1. how do you rate my new core allocation (MSCI World, NASDAQ 100, DAX)? Should I add anything?

2. do you think the inclusion of ASML and Johnson & Johnson makes sense?

3. what do you think of the sell candidates (Ahold Delhaize, Unilever, Zalando, Coca-Cola)? Would you do anything differently?

4. do you have any other ideas or recommendations on how I can make my portfolio more diversified and robust?

Thank you very much for your support and your opinions!