The current sentiment in the financial markets is tense. Tech stocks are under pressure, cryptocurrencies are faltering, and even many dividend-paying stocks are not immune to the general uncertainty.

But what exactly is happening in the markets right now?

Several factors are currently at play:

● Interest rate fears: Uncertainty about the future of monetary policy is causing investors to adopt a cautious stance.

● Technology and AI: Following sharp price increases, valuations are increasingly being called into question. This has led to profit-taking and market corrections.

● Inflation: Concerns that inflation will prove more persistent than expected are weighing on expectations.

● Cryptocurrencies: Even Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing significant volatility. This shows how quickly risk appetite can change.

● Dividend Stocks: Even supposedly defensive investments are not immune to price declines.

But one thing should not be forgotten:

A stock market correction is not automatically a crisis. Falling prices do not necessarily mean that companies are suddenly performing worse or that long-term business models are no longer working.

Right now, it’s especially important to distinguish between short-term market movements and long-term corporate developments.

What investors should take away from such phases:

1. Not every dip in price is a reason to sell.

2. Quality should be more important in the long term than the highest possible dividend yield.

3. Broad diversification remains crucial.

4. Liquidity and a well-thought-out strategy create room to maneuver.

5. Emotional decisions are rarely good decisions in the stock market.

Personally, I believe that such market phases also offer an opportunity to critically examine one’s own strategy and refocus on what really matters.

The stock market isn’t a sprint—it’s a marathon.

Those who invest for the long term shouldn’t question their entire strategy with every correction. At the same time, you should never ignore risks.

I’d be interested to know:

How do you assess the current market situation? Are we seeing a healthy correction, a major revaluation, or the beginning of a prolonged period of weakness?

Let’s have an objective discussion. Especially in uncertain times, education, sharing experiences, and keeping a cool head are more important than ever.

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#Geldanlage
#Dividenden
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#LangfristigInvestieren
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#Aktienmarkt
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$BTC (-3.24%)
$NVDA (-1.98%)
$META (+2.47%)
$TSLA (-1.87%)
$MSFT (+0.54%)
$ETH (-3.97%)
$SOL (-5.83%)
$XRP (-4.23%)

Hi everyone,

Given the continued price declines of $BTC (-3.24%) , I’m wondering if it might make sense to buy now.

What do you think?

Thanks in advance for your comments :)

U.S. inflation came in higher than expected in October. This has put a 0.5 percentage point interest rate hike in December on the table. $BTC (-3.24%) has declined, but is proving relatively resilient in the face of this headwind.

Our base scenario at CoinShares remains a trading range between $60,000 and $90,000, as long as the broader conditions do not change significantly. So far, there have been no clear catalysts for a sustained breakout. Shifting interest rate expectations, stronger institutional inflows, or renewed buying by large Bitcoin holders could change the picture. (Text by CoinShares’ Head of Research, James Butterfill)

The recent sell-off among $BTC (-3.24%)miners was driven less by Bitcoin than by AI. Since the hash price has barely recovered, the miners’ growth now depends on AI hosting. It already accounts for about one-third of revenue and is expected to rise to nearly half by the end of the year once new contracts come online. As a result, stock prices are at the mercy of their tenants’ financial situations: Bonds issued by CoreWeave, Core Scientific’s main tenant, at times yielded over 15 percent—a clear warning sign—despite Nvidia’s existing commitment to purchase unused capacity. Even if CoreWeave is saved, this serves as a warning to other heavily indebted “neoclouds” that have entered into commitments with miners.

Political factors also weighed on the situation. Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa plans to impose a moratorium on new data centers until the state legislature establishes a legal framework—a development that is unlikely to occur before the second half of 2027. This benefits miners who already have permits or have locations outside of Texas. In addition, the Democratic majority in Congress is likely to rein in Trump’s foreign policy, which would ease pressure on oil prices and inflation. And despite the Democrats’ reputation for being critical of crypto, Bitcoin remained stable after the election because regulation by the SEC and CFTC reduces dependence on a crypto-skeptical Congress.

My mathematical calculation for the next crypto bull run, based on the assumption that $ETH (-3.97%) 3x $BTC (-3.24%) outperformed. I don’t think anyone can imagine ETH prices at $15,000 right now. Feel free to post your own calculations here as well.

The Chart Mechanics (Capital Rotation)

Historically, the ratio between Ethereum and Bitcoin has moved in fixed cycles between two extreme zones: the lower accumulation zone (“ETH accumulation”) and the upper distribution zone (“BTC accumulation”). After every multi-year downtrend, the ETH/BTC ratio has rebounded from the lower zone by around +200% (3x) .

The Calculation in Detail

• Starting point: Bitcoin at $80,000, Ethereum at $2,500. This currently results in a historically low ETH/BTC ratio of 0.03125.
• The outperformance (+200% / 3x): If the ETH/BTC ratio rises by +200% into the upper chart zone, as it has in previous cycles, the ratio will increase from 0.03125 to 0.09375.

Depending on how strongly Bitcoin itself gains in the next liquidity cycle (toward 2028/2029), this double leverage will result in the following scenario:

Conservative scenario (BTC +100% / 2x to $160,000):

$160,000 × 0.09375 = $15,000 per ETH (6x multiplier)

Chart scenario (BTC +200% / 3x to $240,000):

$240,000 × 0.09375 = $22,500 per ETH (9x multiplier)

Context & Investment Focus

Even if Bitcoin “only” doubles (+100%) in the next bull run due to its high market capitalization, a normal rebound of the ETH/BTC ratio to 0.09375 would be enough to push Ethereum to $15,000 . Fundamentally, this rotation is driven by increasing institutional tokenization (stablecoins, bonds, funds) on the Ethereum network.

Not investment advice 🐊

About three-quarters of the wealthy investors surveyed view $BTC (-3.24%) as relevant to the financial system in the long term.

According to CoinShares, an average of 77 percent agree with the statement that #bitcoin cryptocurrencies will play a significant role in the global financial system in the future as confidence in fiat currencies declines. Support is particularly high in the U.S. and the United Kingdom. In Germany, it stands at 77 percent.

A follow-up question in the report shows that about three-quarters consider an investment in $BTC (-3.24%) as a hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies.

These results reflect the beliefs of the respondents—not a guarantee of hedging effectiveness. However, they show that many high-net-worth investors $BTC (-3.24%) from a long-term, macroeconomic perspective as well.

$BITC (-4.12%)

Will Trump become a politically weakened president, or will he react unpredictably to the limits imposed on him? In my assessment, $BTC (-3.24%) a Democratic majority in both chambers of Congress has largely been priced in, which leaves room for a rebound once the uncertainty subsides. The expected outcome therefore need not lead to another sell-off.

The bigger concern is slower crypto regulation. The CLARITY Act, which aims to establish clearer rules for digital assets, is likely to face an uphill battle. Investigations into companies with ties to Trump could also tie up political capital and lead to negative headlines across the entire industry. However, the administration remains in office, and regulatory progress already made—including the GENIUS Act for payment stablecoins—will not simply disappear.

The impact is likely to vary significantly by asset class. We expect U.S. crypto stocks to react more sensitively than #bitcoin—particularly exchanges, token issuers, and companies that rely on new regulatory approvals. Established, compliant providers could gain a competitive advantage if regulators disproportionately target weaker competitors. Miners with existing data centers are also likely to remain in high demand among AI hyperscalers.

(Text by CoinShares’ Head of Research, James Butterfill)

$BITC (-4.12%)

Podcast Episode 171: "Buy High. Sell Low."

Subscribe to the podcast so no new taxes are introduced.

00:00:00 AVD at TR

00:30:05 Fitness & Martial Arts

00:43:50 AI Tax

01:06:03 Internet Tax

01:11:50 Good for U.S. Stocks

01:13:30 Bitcoin Holding Period

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1uyGjm9aYrL30GwTLcd0Af?si=woqPMsKcRmGPt57pd86xEQ

YouTube

https://openyoutu.be/XI8S67utP60

(The video has glitches and poor quality because there were issues with the new laptop. The audio is working, though. Everything will be better next time.)

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/171-das-kaufe-ich-2027-im-altersvorsorgedepot-bei-trade/id1695869891?i=1000800243283

#etf
#etfs
#bitcoin
#btc
$BTC (-3.24%)

Things really heated up on the stock market yesterday. I'm curious to see what Wall Street will do today... Will it keep plummeting toward the Earth's core, or might there be a recovery or a bigger bounce?! We'll have to wait and see. At least there was a bit of a recovery in pre-market trading 😁

There was some serious buying yesterday 💪

First tranche of $MU (-2.7%)

additional purchases of $NVDA (-1.98%) , $BTC (-3.24%) , $META (+2.47%) , $GOOGL (-1.54%) and $MELI (+1.42%)

🔥🚀💰