The listed company Marathon Digital Holdings
$MARA (-3.48%) has 15,574 Bitcoin
$BTC (-0%) for 1.53 billion USD acquired.

In the last bull run, Bitcoin broke through the 20 day SMA (blue) on the daily chart several times and tested the 50 day SMA (yellow) line. If we close several days above the 50 Day SMA, then we could see a similar behavior of the Bitcoin price as 4 years ago until it goes higher again in January and February. That's the theory, but of course nothing is guaranteed. Historical patterns are sometimes broken.

I remain curious and am eyeing a (re)purchase at $COIN (+0.27%) , $MSTR (+8.98%) and of course $BTC (-0%)

(Not Financial Advice)

Hedging against the decline of the EU/euro?

Hello everyone,

I am a fan of Andreas Beck (see interviews with him on YouTube).

He invests his cash and crash reserves in Swiss government bonds, among other things.

The advantage: the currency is the Swiss franc (solid currency) and it also pays a bit of interest.

My investment case:

• The EU will soon have a new Greece problem, but this time with a completely different house number: France
• In my view, reforms in France are virtually impossible. Later retirement due to demographics and the streets are already burning
• In addition, there is an incentive system to exploit DE's stupidity (or rather its financial solidity). Others go into debt and DE will pay/be liable for it

For me this means: Bearish Euro. Save yourself who can.

I find US T-bills quite interesting, but to be fair, the US also has problems. In my view, Switzerland is the island of bliss :)

But now the question of all questions arises:

How can I invest in Swiss government bonds?

Even via CapTrader I haven't found anything (although TWS is also creepy from a UX point of view, maybe I just didn't find it).

Trade Republic offers a few bonds, e.g. Nestle. But it's not so failsafe.

According to my research, there is a money market ETF for it $CSBGC3 but it is probably only tradable in Switzerland?

P.S. I am already invested in alternatives such as $BTC (-0%) I am already invested, but in my opinion it is too volatile for a crash reserve. $GOLD (-0.26%) does not yield any interest.

Now I am looking for

• Opportunities to invest in Swiss government bonds & the Swiss franc
• If that doesn't work: Do you have other hedging ideas against the euro's decline?

Looking forward to your opinions!

A request from @opportunity_expert_583 under a contribution from @WinStreak77 for a detailed explanation of my view on $BTC (-0%) which I am of course happy to comply with. Of course, this is only my humble and unprofessional opinion. You are welcome to judge for yourself.

1. extreme volatility

Smaller assets usually fluctuate a little more. You will hardly ever $MSFT (-1.05%) (unprovoked) correction of 50% within months. However, this is not uncommon with small stocks.

I don't think this is a problem. Like everywhere else, you have players who are driven by "FOMO" and invest in the market without reflection or experience. But I don't want to blame an asset for the investors' lack of experience and possibly even education. In addition, as has now been sufficiently researched and proven, not only most private investors but also professional investors never catch the right time to buy and sell. Consequently, one would have to conclude from this assumption that every purchase is a bad purchase, regardless of the investment.

Incidentally, volatility is only a minor problem for investment horizons of over 5 years (as of today), even for headless investors.

Re 2. speculation instead of fundamentals

The equation of BTC and crypto assets is significantly disqualifying due to the inability to participate in the discourse. Please inform yourself urgently. Then argue further.

Re 3. regulatory uncertainty

Risk and return are inevitably indirectly proportional. This is not a vice of Bitcoin. Other assets (real estate, gold, ...) can and have already been subject to economically unattractive market phases as a result of regulation. These events are always unpredictable, otherwise they would be priced in.

4. lack of intrinsic value

Even gold does not have its market cap due to its intrinsic value. Only a small percentage (I'd have to google) corresponds to actual economic/technical utility. The majority is held as a speculative/investment asset (see USA, China, Russia, ...). Now you can't compare BTC to the intrinsic value of a stock. Of course not, so it is not the same asset class. Or should we, for example, declare Apple worthless because you can't live in app stores, or real estate because it doesn't produce goods, or works of art because you can only eat a few of them?

5. technical and security risks

In my opinion, we need to differentiate here. Yes, wallets, or rather private keys (thank you for demonstrating the ignorance of the above-mentioned author with this choice of words) can be lost. But again, as in point 1, this is due to the inability of the actors and not to the worthlessness of an asset. Gold jewelry can also be stolen. But that doesn't make my wedding ring worthless. An expensive vase can also be broken. However, I wouldn't exactly declare a Ming vase to be junk.

Yes, there are technical risks, but the BTC network has been stable and trouble-free for years. Disruptions and hacks are also possible with large corporations, nations, ... cannot be ruled out. Just as your cash is not insured beyond the deposit security at the bank.

To the given conclusion:

Real estate is also subject to value instability. Just take a look at the dependency on interest rates and the current modernization trends. And for the masses, owning an apartment building remains a distant prospect.

Now to my conclusion:

However, perhaps my view is also based on the fact that I have been in the BTC market for around 6 years and have of course also made my attempts at walking with alt-coins or buying and selling BTC and have learned from them.

I don't see BTC as a panacea, but rather as another way to diversify my capital. After all, whether we like it or not, we are all sitting at the same table and playing the game of capitalism. The only question is who plays and wins, and who turns away stubbornly and complains that everyone else is profiting through active acceptance. Our economy works by expanding the money supply. And all amateur Dirk Müller-Crahs prophets will inevitably be right at some point when the market corrects. However, there will still be a global economy afterwards, and there was one now, which is driven by the expansion of the money supply. So why shouldn't an asset like BTC constantly grow in value as it depreciates? Or perhaps I should rather say that its value will remain stable in the long term. Let's all take a look at the charts of the global economy and look for the end of the world in 2008. Of course, there will visibly be corrections at some point. And these too will disappear in the noise of exponential growth caused by monetary expansion.

Why it might make sense to sell now $BTC (-0%) to sell and lock in profits

Bitcoin $BTC (-0%) and other cryptocurrencies are known for their high volatility. While the prospect of further price rises can be tempting, there are several reasons why it might be wise to lock in profits now:

1. market overheating:

If bitcoin $BTC (-0%) makes large gains after a strong rally, there is a risk of a correction. Historically, rapid rises are often followed by setbacks.

2. macroeconomic uncertainties:

Rising interest rates, inflation or geopolitical tensions could put pressure on risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.

3. regulatory risks:

States and regulatory authorities are increasingly tightening the rules for cryptocurrencies. New laws could have a negative impact on market sentiment.

4. realizing profits:

"Profits are not real profits until they are realized." Anyone who has invested early on should consider taking at least some of the profits in order to reduce the risk.

5. portfolio balance:

A sharp rise in bitcoin holdings can throw portfolio management off balance. Risks can be better spread by selling.

Conclusion:

The crypto market offers opportunities, but harbors considerable risks. Securing profits and protecting capital is a smart strategy - especially in uncertain market phases. Don't forget: Always act according to your personal risk tolerance and investment goals.

Are we going to 0 now? $BTC (-0%)

My answer: wait, drink tea and buy cheap (if you haven't already)

My opened swing positions:

2x leverage at $SOL (-2.22%) @$190

2x leverage at $ETH (-2.37%) @$3400

I saw a post on Instagram the other day and am quoting the content here. What do you think?

What about $BTC (-0%) on a hardware wallet? That can't be controlled, can it?

Quote:

In the EU, the MiCa regulation will come into force on December 31, 2024.

Here are 3 things that will change:

• Exchanges must verify that you are the owner of the wallet you are sending BTC to when making withdrawals.
• For deposits on exchanges, you must be able to prove where your BTC came from (when and where purchased).
• Stablecoin providers require a license and must be covered 1:1 at all times.

El Salvador caused a global sensation in 2021 when it became the first country to introduce $BTC (-0%) introduced it as a legal tender. This decision under President Nayib Bukele aimed to position the country as a pioneer in Bitcoin adoption. Now, however, under a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Bitcoin is de facto losing this status.

Details of the IMF agreement:

On December 18, 2024, an agreement was concluded between El Salvador and the IMF that includes an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program in the amount of 1.4 billion US dollars. This program is intended to mobilize additional financial support from the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and other regional development banks, resulting in a total financing package of over USD 3.5 billion during the program period. The aim of the agreement is to strengthen El Salvador's financial stability and economic resilience.

The main points of the program are:

• Reducing the budget deficit and ensuring the sustainability of public debt.
• Improved reporting, implementation of anti-corruption measures and reforms to strengthen governance.
• Increasing banks' liquidity reserves to better manage risk.
• Restrictions on Bitcoin and related projects:
• Use of Bitcoin in the private sector remains voluntary.
• State involvement is greatly reduced; the Chivo wallet is abolished.
• Bitcoin can no longer be used to pay taxes.

El Salvador has thus finally given in to international pressure.

However, apart from the fact that Bitcoin loses its status as legal tender, not much has changed for El Salvadorans. The obligation to accept Bitcoin in businesses has not been pursued in the past anyway and was practically voluntary - although required by law. The vast majority still pay in US dollars anyway and those who want to pay with Bitcoin can still do so if the merchant accepts it.

Furthermore, El Salvador still buys one Bitcoin a day as a state reserve. It is not yet known whether this will continue.

What do you think of El Salvador's decision?

Sources:

https://www.blocktrainer.de/blog/bitcoin-kein-gesetzliches-zahlungsmittel-mehr

Ende der Bitcoin-Nation El Salvador für 1.4 Mrd. USD IWF-Kredit - Crypto Valley Journal

El Salvador reduziert Bitcoin-Verpflichtungen im Rahmen eines IWF-Kreditabkommens