Digital asset investment products saw inflows of USD 619 million last week, indicating that the initial market reaction to the Iran crisis is supportive for this asset class. Early optimism is particularly evident, with an impressive USD 1.44 billion flowing into these products in the first three days of the week. However, investor sentiment weakened noticeably later in the week, which is reflected in outflows totaling USD 829 million on Thursday and Friday, even though the published labour market data was significantly weaker than expected. This decline in inflows indicates that investors are acting more cautiously in the short term and are taking possible economic uncertainties into account. Nevertheless, rising oil prices are offsetting potential declines in inflation that could result from the weak labor market figures, meaning that the general market optimism is not completely interrupted. Overall, capital flows show that despite geopolitical tensions and short-term volatility, an overwhelmingly positive attitude towards digital asset investment products prevails, with investors continuing to see opportunities in this emerging asset class and willing to accept the risk.

$BTC (+1.84%)
$ETH (+1.47%)
$SOL (+0.21%)
$XRP (+1.58%)

How to invest in crypto:

$BITC (+0.8%)
$CETH (-0.37%)
$XRRL (+0.2%)
$SLNC (-0.83%)

The war could give the $BTC (+1.84%)-price for reasons that go beyond simple safe-haven demand.

Consider, for example, a scenario that now seems at least plausible: a prolonged disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with rising energy prices and increasing pressure on the public finances of energy-importing countries. In such an environment, confidence in the reliability of the global financial infrastructure itself becomes a relevant variable.

2022 has shown that even the currency reserves of AAA-rated countries can be frozen overnight for political reasons. The structural characteristics of $BTC (+1.84%) - no sovereign issuer, no counterparty and settlement that works independently of the correspondent banking infrastructure - turn from theoretical advantages to practical ones precisely when this infrastructure comes under pressure.

Gold has always reacted to such developments, which is why the price has recently risen by 3.5 percent. Increasingly #bitcoin institutional investors are taking a similar view - this week's capital inflows provide clear evidence of this. The current conflict did not create the safe haven thesis of $BTC (+1.84%) but it has provided the clearest practical test so far in this market cycle.

$BITC (+0.8%)

I'm having a discussion with friends and would like to hear what you think.

I currently hold around 0.208 BTC. Some of it was bought over the years, but some of it also came as a gift from family (birthday, Christmas, etc.).

The total amount of money I have invested in Bitcoin is around €5,536.

If I do the simple math:

€5,536 / 0.208 BTC = about €26,600 per BTC.

For me, that honestly feels like my "real" entry price, because that's the money I actually put in myself.

But now comes the point where the discussion started.

I exchanged some altcoins for Bitcoin in November 2024, when the price was already relatively high. As a result, some people say that my average price should actually be much higher, in some cases closer to 70k, because this exchange practically counts as a new purchase.

Others say the same thing:

The Bitcoins I received as a gift shouldn't actually be included in the average because I didn't pay anything for them.

In the end - depending on how you do the math - I end up with completely different "entry prices".

Once around 26k,

sometimes significantly higher due to the trades,

or theoretically even lower if you look at the gifts differently.

So I'll just ask around:

How would you calculate your entry?

- Just your own invested money?

- Include every trade at the price at the time?

- Or are donated coins simply a bonus without an entry price?

I just realized that the "average entry" is much less clear than I always thought.

😂😆😂😆

$BTC (+1.84%)
$ETH (+1.47%)
$SOL (+0.21%)
$XRP (+1.58%)
$PEPE (+1.55%)
$ADA (+2.87%)
#crypto

$BTC (+1.84%) has remained remarkably stable despite the geopolitical escalation surrounding Iran. While oil prices and volatility have risen significantly and stock markets have come under pressure, Bitcoin has risen by around 7% since the start of the conflict and has stabilized above USD 70,000.

This is remarkable in that Bitcoin has historically often served as a source of liquidity for selling during geopolitical shocks at the weekend. This time the market developed differently.

One important reason lies in the market structure prior to the escalation. Over the past five months, it is estimated that large market participants ("whales") have seen net outflows of around 30 billion US dollars. As a result, many speculative exaggerations have already been flushed out of the market. Valuation and leverage indicators had normalized significantly even before the geopolitical risk increased again.

The capital flow data also confirms this development. After five weeks of ETF outflows totaling around four billion US dollars, investment products on digital assets recorded net inflows of over one billion US dollars again in the first five days of March alone. Investors are therefore not retreating, but are increasing their allocation despite the uncertainty.

However, the macroeconomic environment remains difficult. Weaker labour market data in the US, rising energy prices and persistent inflationary pressure are limiting the US Federal Reserve's scope for rapid interest rate cuts. A combination of weaker growth and stubborn inflation is a difficult environment for traditional risk investments.

For #bitcoin however, it is precisely these factors that may become more relevant. Rising government debt, energy-driven inflation and the increasing politicization of the global financial system underscore characteristics of Bitcoin such as self-custody and independence from government issuers.

A phase of consolidation remains likely in the short term. A sustained breakout above USD 72,000 would be necessary to clearly brighten the technical picture. Nevertheless, the current market phase shows that Bitcoin is increasingly being perceived less as a fragile risk asset and more as a macroeconomic hedging instrument. (Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares' Head of Research)

With the CoinShares Bitcoin ETP $BITC (+0.8%) you can invest in Bitcoin.

Now that $BTC (+1.84%) and altcoins have been bullish about the conflict in the Middle East and are now showing a breakout from the downtrend, one should zoom out and visualize the structure of the trend.

LILA - The price is still in a falling trend channel

YELLOW - Continuation pattern (bearish wedge)

WHITE - The most recent price movement suggests a fake-out like in mid-January

GREEN - The first bottom was formed at $60K

RED - A crucial area that could provide support and will be reached before the end of the downtrend

Projection

A V-shaped recovery, which is currently being hinted at, is extremely rare to see at the end of a bear market.

It is likely that the $60K mark will be broken and the bottom will be found in the $50K area - this would correspond to a classic 5-stage downtrend.

However, if another continuation pattern becomes visible in this area, it would go to the $38K area...

What is your strategy? Buy the dip, blunt savings plan or wait for a bottom?