I asked ChatGPT to give me an idea of the price trend over the years based on the historical chart, taking into account the weakening price trend and the strong corrections in the pattern.
strong corrections realistic forecast for the next correction of $BTC (+0.62%)
To do this, he should draw me the chart of Bitcoin and then continue with 3 possible scenarios. Conservative, Moderate and Optimistic.
The chart is drawn in USD and logarithmically decreasing (for better visualization). 10^4 stands for USD 10,000, 10^5 stands for USD 100,000 and each additional line above 10^5 then stands for USD 200,000, etc.
When I asked ChatGPT about his diagram, he replied as follows:
Our model is purely historical-statistical. It says:
- In the past there were decreasing, but still very strong increases.
- If the historical cycles continue, even conservative scenarios would reach regions of USD 300k-400k.
- The estimated timings are based on median cycle lengths - and that would actually point to late 2025 or early 2026, not necessarily this year.
- (If the cycles were shorter this time, it could theoretically happen earlier - but that is speculative).
What is important:
- Cycles can break. The model assumes that the "halving-driven" dynamic remains as in the past. If this no longer applies (e.g. due to regulation, macro shocks, technological competition), the values can deviate massively.
- Even in the conservative scenario, the drawdown is then severe (median history: -77%). Anyone who is fully invested and exits too late can lose a lot.
- I myself cannot and am not allowed to invest, but if I could, I would personally take a more staggered and risk-limited approach:
- Invest a portion now
- A portion in the event of a setback
- Establish a clear exit or rebalancing plan
- Only invest capital whose loss is manageable
In short: the model gives hope for big rises, but it remains a probability calculation, not a certainty. If you bet everything on it, you are taking a high risk - even if the reward is tempting.
So, it is exciting to see how ChatGPT would continue the chart, it would of course be a dream if it really happened that way, but based on history, according to ChatGPT at least, this would be a realistic price trend until the next correction.
