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524I checked my watchlist again this morning. Among others, there are $IREN (-1.47%) and $RKLB (+1.68%) have dropped significantly from their ATHs.
How are things looking for you guys? Are you buying at these prices, selling, and still confident in the company, or is certain news getting you down?
P.S.: I’m not invested, but I’m seriously considering it.
$IREN (-1.47%) soared today. The reason was a potential partnership with Anthropic.
IREN’s stock soared 12.5% to $43.69 in morning trading today. The move was triggered by reports that the company has been shortlisted for Anthropic’s $15 billion data center project. This news served as a strong company-specific catalyst for the stock, which had previously been under significant selling pressure for nearly two weeks.
The move was significantly amplified by the momentum of a technical short squeeze. Short interest in IREN had risen to about 18.7% of the free float, and the put/call ratio in the options market reached its highest level of the year—conditions that, based on experience, typically precede sharp upward corrections following positive news. Over the previous five trading days, the stock had lost about 28% of its value, leaving it heavily oversold and thus ripe for a rebound.
The broader market also provided a supportive environment: The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% in today’s trading, and the S&P 500 gained 0.4%. This reflected a risk-on sentiment from which high-beta stocks in the AI infrastructure sector benefited. Competitors in the AI data center and Bitcoin mining segments, such as CoreWeave and Nebius, operate in the same market environment and have also benefited in recent weeks from rising expectations regarding hyperscaler spending. Analyst sentiment toward IREN remains clearly bullish, with a consensus “Buy” rating and an average price target of $81.75, which is significantly above the current trading level.
The combination of the report that Anthropic had shortlisted the company, a high short interest with potential for short covering, and a positive overall market environment thus led to today’s above-average price movement. This has offset part of the steep decline that had pushed the stock well below key moving averages—despite an unchanged long-term growth thesis based on significant contracts with Microsoft, Nvidia, and Dell.
Nvidia announced a new partnership model for Neoclouds (specialized GPU cloud providers): Nvidia acts as a financial backstop and commits to leasing back unused GPU capacity at a fixed price. In return, Nvidia receives a share of its partners’ cloud revenue in addition to hardware revenue.
$NBIS (-3.09%)$USCTF (-3.31%)$CIFR (-2.06%)$WULF (-0.46%)$APLD (-2.4%)$KEEL (-3.2%)$CORZ (-0.91%)$HIVE (-2.29%)$BTDR (-2.18%)$CLSK (-1.92%)$MARA (-2.45%)$HUT (-0.65%)$RIOT (-2.15%)
$IREN (-1.47%) has so far not named as a participant—but has had a strategic partnership with Nvidia since May covering up to 5 GW of AI infrastructure, a $3.4 billion cloud contract , and Nvidia holds the right to purchase up to 2.1 billion IREN shares .
Adopting this model seems like a very logical step, since IREN will require extremely high investment costs (>$100 billion) to expand its entire pipeline.
In my view, this would be very positive in the short to medium term.
The biggest risk with $IREN (-1.47%) and other Neocloud providers is not demand, but rather the financing of their expansion plans, which run into the billions. A backstop from Nvidia would mitigate precisely this risk: Banks are much more willing to grant loans when the world’s largest chipmaker guarantees capacity utilization—this would provide significant security and more favorable, virtually lower-risk financing. However, the revenue share would directly impact the profit margin . In the long term, companies would thereby cede part of their overall potential to Nvidia—essentially trading long-term profitability for medium-term security.
$IREN (-1.47%) has the founders and co-CEOs Daniel and Will Roberts, respectively, 9,099,328 RSUs (Restricted Stock Units—shares that are transferred only after a vesting period). Together, this amounts to approximately 18.2 million shares worth approximately $700–800 million —depending on the share price on the valuation date—and represents approximately 5% dilution for existing shareholders.
Key facts:
The FinX community is reacting to this extremely critically —and the core criticism is justified: The package is purely time-based. Previous grants to the same CEOs were tied to share price targets, whereas this time, all that’s required is to remain in office for four years. The two-year lock-up period per tranche effectively ties the founders to the stock price until 2033. While this does motivate the founders to drive up the stock price—since they profit directly from its level—it is significantly less effective than genuine performance-based thresholds. From a governance perspective, this is a clear drawback, and existential for the fundamental investment case .
Source:
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/iren-nasdaqgs-iren-approves-800-231421785.html
Watchlist:
$IREN (-1.47%) Target 34€
$NBIS (-3.09%) Target 180€
$RKLB (+1.68%) Target 70€
$PLTR (-2.76%) Target 95€
$NOW (-2.56%) Target 85€
$NU (-1.71%) Target 10€
$IREN (-1.47%) under pressure from $META (-0.85%). That said, the NeoCloud market is large enough. $IREN (-1.47%) A specialist would be $META (-0.85%) a generalist. Specialists have greater opportunities but also face greater risk. The level of $IREN (-1.47%) is interesting for follow-on purchases, in my opinion
Hey everyone,
First post on this occasion:
The board of $IREN (-1.47%) is simply giving the two co-CEOs 18.2 million RSUs worth nearly 800 million dollars. While the stock is under pressure due to Meta Cloud rumors, the Roberts brothers are cashing in big time.
I’m not a fan of this at all—what do you think?
A very weak signal at this stage.
July 1, 2026: Bloomberg reports that $META (-0.85%) a cloud infrastructure business to provide external customers with access to AI computing power and AI models . The plans are still in the works and could change. These statements are based on information from insiders; META has not yet commented on the matter.
The stock has risen by +12%, while Neocloud shares are simultaneously falling by as much as -15% at the same time ($IREN (-1.47%)$NBIS (-3.09%)$CRWV (-1.25%)).
According to the report, two options are on the table:
What could this news mean?
The move would be a new source of revenue for Meta—today, nearly all of its revenue comes from advertising. The initiative could reduce Meta’s dependence on advertising revenue and put it in competition with $AMZN (-0.63%) AWS, $MSFT (-1.19%) Azure, $GOOGL (-0.73%) Cloud, $IREN (-1.47%) , $NBIS (-3.09%) , $CRWV (-1.25%) and other Neocloud providers.
The idea is obvious: Zuckerberg said in May that entering the cloud market was “definitely an option” if they were to overbuild—and SpaceX and xAI have recently paved the way by selling computing capacity.
In the short term, this could mean that Meta actually has excess computing power due to overprovisioning, which could be interpreted as a sign that capital expenditures are nearing a peak. On the other hand, in the short term, it could also be more lucrative for $META (-0.85%) to resell the highly sought-after GPU computing power at a substantial profit.
Source:
The $META (-0.85%) share has not been performing for some time now, despite the growth spurt resulting from the use of AI. The analysts' current price target is currently +35%. The market is punishing Meta for its very high investments in AI infrastructure. This is understandable, as high expenditure puts pressure on margins. However, the market is largely ignoring the potential return on these investments. If the AI offensive works, it will not only protect the core business, but also make it significantly more profitable. Why I $META (-0.85%) attractive and what reasons speak for a positive future:
1. the core business
Social media has become the central advertising channel of the global economy, growing by >30% per year. Today, companies of all sizes search for and find their customers primarily on Instagram, Facebook and, in the future, Threads. Usage is habit-based and cross-platform; users are not active on either TikTok or Meta, but usually in parallel.
$META (-0.85%) has a reach with its apps that can hardly be replicated. This makes the advertising business highly profitable and extremely scalable. Even without new products, this is an excellent business.
2. two major monetization levers are only just beginning
WhatsApp and Threads have been built up for years, but have hardly been monetized until now. That is now changing:
- WhatsApp Business and cloud solutions are becoming an infrastructure for commerce and customer service
- Threads is gradually building an advertising model and ideally complements the Instagram ecosystem for text-based reach as a competitor to X.
Neither of these are bets on new markets, but the logical expansion of existing user relationships.
3. meta AI
Skepticism about the massive investments in AI infrastructure and models is understandable. Strategically, however, I see it differently: Meta is the first major operational (software) beneficiary of AI, not because it sells models, but because AI makes its own advertising machine better.
Better targeting, automated ad creation and more efficient playout increase the return on ad spend for advertising customers. This leads directly to higher budgets for Meta. A cycle is created: more investment in infrastructure leads to more computing power, which leads to better models, better models lead to better ads, better ads lead to more revenue, and more revenue finances the next round of investment.
In addition, Meta wants to use AI specifically for personal AI and for the development of new, independent apps. The massive expansion of its own cloud capacity is a double competitive advantage. Firstly, it accelerates the training and improvement of the company's own models (Llama, Muse Spark). Secondly, computing power itself becomes digital gold because it is the key bottleneck in the market. If you have capacity, you can develop, implement and scale products faster.
Theoretically, Meta could also rent out excess capacity to third parties and thus build up an additional cloud business. However, I don't see this as a strategic direction. The real value lies in consistently using the infrastructure for your own ecosystem and thus increasing the distance to competitors.
The feedback to Other Bets is also particularly interesting. The further development of AI glasses and the VR business not only benefits from the company's own AI infrastructure, it also strengthens the core business. Both areas provide additional, context-rich usage data and create new areas of interaction that further improve targeting, personalization and ultimately the monetization of the advertising platform.
4. financial strength allows strategic patience
$META (-0.85%) finances these investments largely from its own free cash flow. The company has low debt and is highly profitable. This gives the management the opportunity to think long-term, even if the market fears short-term pressure on margins.
Risks that I consciously take:
- Around 98 percent of sales depend on the advertising market. In a recession, the first thing to be cut is marketing, which would hit Meta directly.
- Regulation in the EU around personalized advertising remains an ongoing issue.
- Although the regulatory risk of increasing minimum ages for use has a negative impact on user numbers, it only has a marginal economic impact on Meta because minors do not account for a significant proportion of revenue.
- The allocation of capital is heavily dependent on Mark Zuckerberg, and the success of the AI expenditure has not yet been proven.
These points are well known and weigh on the valuation. Nevertheless, the risk/reward ratio is positive for me.
I am holding $META (-0.85%)because I get two things at the same time. Firstly, a core business that is hardly vulnerable even without AI and generates enormous cash flows. Secondly, a cost-intensive but strategically correct AI offensive, the success of which has hardly been recognized by the market to date. If Meta succeeds in making the advertising platform noticeably more efficient through AI, improving its models and applications and monetizing WhatsApp and threads, I believe that large share price gains are realistic in the long term.
No investment advice
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$NVDA (-0.71%)
$AMZN (-0.63%)
$MSFT (-1.19%)
$NBIS (-3.09%)
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