Hi folks,

I have just $VOW (-0.15%) , $MBG (-1.31%) and $BMW (-0.12%) regarding cash flow here on getquin. I noticed that they are in the red. Last year they were still in the black, all several billion euros. What does that mean?

Have you heard about the latest analysis of the Mercedes-Benz Group (ex Daimler)? $MBG (-1.31%) heard? 📈 Warburg Research has given the shares a "buy" rating and set a target price of 71 euros. Despite a cautious outlook for 2025, analyst Marc-Rene Tonn considers the shares to be attractively valued, particularly due to the good dividend yield.

The share price currently stands at 58.68 euros, which corresponds to a fall of 1.05%. Nevertheless, there is still potential: the target price represents a possible increase of over 21%. The share has already gained 9% since the beginning of the year.

The next financial results for the first quarter of 2025 are expected on April 30, 2025. If you are considering investing in Mercedes-Benz shares, now could be an exciting time. What do you think of the analysts' assessment?

Etsy falls after sales miss expectations + Microsoft with breakthrough in quantum computing + Mercedes-Benz with profit slump due to China + Airbus sets itself significantly higher targets for 2025 + Knorr-Bremse announces higher dividend

Etsy $ETSY (-0.39%)falls after Q4 revenue misses expectations

• Shares of Etsy (ETSY) fell more than 10% on Wednesday after the company's fourth-quarter revenue fell short of analysts' expectations.
• The company reported Q4 net income of $1.03 per diluted share, compared to $0.62 a year earlier.
• Analysts polled by FactSet had expected $0.93.
• Revenue for the quarter ended Dec. 31 was $852.2 million, compared with $842.3 million a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected $861.8 million.
• The company said it expects gross merchandise sales growth in the first quarter to decline at a similar rate to the fourth quarter of 2024, which saw a 6.8% decline.
• FactSet analysts expect Q1 gross revenue of $2.90 billion.

Microsoft $MSFT (-1.57%)with breakthrough in quantum computing with new Majorana-1 chip

• Microsoft has spent 17 years researching a new material and a new architecture for quantum computers.
• Now the breakthrough has been achieved with the new Majorana 1 chip, as The Verge reports.

Mercedes-Benz $MBG (-1.31%)suffers significant drop in profits due to weakness in China

• The car manufacturer Mercedes-Benz suffered a significant drop in profits last year, mainly due to poor business in China.
• Consolidated earnings fell by a good 28 percent year-on-year to 10.4 billion euros, as the DAX-listed company announced on Thursday.
• The Stuttgart-based company had already had to drastically cut its profit expectations in September.
• The dividend is to be reduced by one euro to 4.30 euros per share.
• Mercedes also intends to launch a further share buyback of up to 5 billion euros, subject to approval by the Annual General Meeting.
• In China, the most important single market, wealthy customers are buying less expensive Mercedes cars, which is causing the high profitability of previous years to dwindle.
• In 2024, only 8.1 percent of sales before interest, taxes and special items remained as operating profit in the passenger car business across the Group.
• This was slightly less than experts had expected.
• A year earlier, it had been 12.6 percent, and even higher in the two previous years. Turnover fell by 4.5 percent to 145.6 billion euros for the year as a whole.
• Earnings before interest and taxes fell by almost a third to 13.6 billion euros, which was slightly better than experts had feared.

Airbus $AIR (-3.2%)is aiming much higher for 2025 - profit forecast disappointed

• After a bumpy year, the world's largest aircraft manufacturer Airbus is aiming for higher deliveries and profits in 2025.
• CEO Guillaume Faury plans to deliver around 820 passenger jets in the current year, more than 50 more than in the previous year, as the DAX-listed company announced in Toulouse on Thursday.
• Operating profit before special items (adjusted EBIT) is expected to climb to around 7 billion euros after falling to less than 5.4 billion euros in 2024.
• Analysts had expected a little more, especially for 2025.
• However, shareholders can expect a higher dividend for the past year: Airbus intends to pay out 3 euros per share, 1 euro of which will be a special dividend.
• For 2023, the Group had paid out 2.80 euros per share - and there was also a special dividend of one euro at that time.
• In the past year, the manufacturer increased its turnover by six percent to 69 billion euros.
• However, the adjusted operating profit fell by nine percent to 5.4 billion euros.
• On the one hand, Airbus delivered 766 fewer passenger jets than originally expected due to a shortage of components.
• On the other hand, burdens in the space business and the A400M military transporter weighed on the result.
• The surplus grew again by twelve percent to 4.2 billion euros, after suffering from unfavorable exchange rates in the previous year.
• While Faury is sticking to its latest expansion plans for passenger jet production, buyers of the new A350F freighter will have to wait longer for their aircraft.
• Instead of 2026, the first aircraft is now not scheduled to enter service until the second half of 2027.

Knorr-Bremse $KBX (+0.71%)wants to grow further and holds out the prospect of a higher dividend

• Truck and train brake manufacturer Knorr-Bremse is aiming for further growth in the current year.
• The company announced on Thursday in Munich when presenting its figures for 2024 that sales are set to increase to between EUR 8.1 and 8.4 billion.
• The management expects the adjusted margin on earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) to be between 12.5 and 13.5 percent in 2025. At almost 7.9 billion euros, revenue in the past financial year was roughly on a par with the previous year.
• Declines in the commercial vehicle business were offset by growth in the rail division.
• Adjusted EBIT increased by 8.2 percent to EUR 966.4 million, while the corresponding margin improved by one percentage point to 12.3 percent.
• Knorr-Bremse benefited from its ongoing restructuring program.
• The company announced an increased dividend for 2024.
• Most recently, Knorr-Bremse had held out the prospect of at least a stable payment - compared to EUR 1.64 per share most recently.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• BP USD 0.08
• Microsoft 0.83 USD
• Imperial Brands GBP 0.54
• Applied Materials USD 0.40
• AstraZeneca 21.00 GBX
• easyJet 0.12 GBP
• GSK 0.16 GBP

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 05:00 Lenovo quarterly figures
• 13:00 Walmart quarterly figures
• 13:30 Alibaba quarterly figures
• 14:00 Walmart analyst conference
• 17:00 Visa Investor Day
• 22:00 Booking Holdings quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:00 Mercedes-Benz | Airbus | Zurich Insurance | Knorr-Bremse | Krones | Renault Annual results
• 07:30 Schneider Electric | Indus Holding Annual results
• 08:00 Anglo American | Repsol | Lloyds Banking Annual Results | Mercedes-Benz Analyst and Press Conference
• 09:00 Knorr-Bremse BI-PK
• 09:15 Airbus PK
• 10:00 Infineon | Siemens Energy AGM
• 13:00 Zurich Insurance Analyst Conference
• 14:30 Krones conference call
• 18:00 Leonardo | Imerys quarterly figures

Economic data

08:00 DE: Producer prices January FORECAST: +0.5% yoy/+1.2% yoy previously: -0.1% yoy/+0.8% yoy | Turnover in the hospitality industry December and year 2024

08:00 CH: Trade balance January

12:00 EU: ECB balance sheet 2024

14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) previous week FORECAST: 215,000 Previous: 213,000

14:30 US: Philadelphia Fed Index February FORECAST: 13.2 PREVIOUS: 44.3

15:30 US: Fed Chicago President Goolsbee, speech at "Chicagoland Chamber Mid-Market" event, Chicago

16:00 EU: Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (flash estimate) February FORECAST: -13.9 previous: -14.2

16:00 US: Leading Indicators Index January FORECAST: -0.2% yoy previous: -0.1% yoy

The Mercedes-Benz Group ($MBG (-1.31%)) is under pressure! 😬 The fat years seem to be over as the car manufacturer struggles with a slump in profits and a noticeable decline in sales. The business figures for 2024 will be published on Thursday - the tension is rising!

A big reason for the misery? China. Sales there have fallen by a whopping seven percent, especially in the premium segment. Analyst Frank Biller from LBBW notes: "The growth engine China has lost a lot of momentum." High-priced models such as the S-Class and Mercedes-Maybach were particularly disappointing with a decline of 14 percent.

The real estate crisis in China has mainly affected wealthy buyers. The market is also highly competitive due to local brands. What do you think? Can Mercedes hold its own in this highly competitive market? Or is it time for a change of strategy? 📉💭

German investors who bet on the capital market achieved decent returns last year. This is the result of an of the portfolios of 330,000 users of the Getquin platformplatform, which is exclusively available to Handelsblatt. According to this, the average return was between 24 and 30 percent, depending on the size of the portfolio.

Many of these investors are pursuing unnecessarily risky strategies. This is because they invest a relatively large proportion of their money in individual shares. In contrast, exchange-traded ETFs, which often track broad indices, account for a smaller proportion.

It is striking how much money Getquin users have invested in individual company shares. On average, the average share of individual shares is 55 percent of the investment capital. In contrast, the average ETF share is only 37 percent.

When looking at the individual portfolio groups, it is interesting to note that most individual shares are held in small portfolios. However, even in the over EUR 100,000 portfolio group, investors have invested more than half of their money in individual stocks.

German Getquin users particularly like to invest in tech companies, many of them from the USA. It is therefore not surprising that US companies frequently appear among the 20 most popular individual stocks.

Many investors prefer shares from their home country. This phenomenon is known as "home bias". This apparently selective perception in favor of the domestic financial market explains why Allianz $ALV (-0.14%) , SAP $SAP, BASF $BAS (+1.69%) , Munich Re $MUV2 (-0.6%) and Deutsche Telekom $DTE (+0.67%) are five German companies. Siemens $SIE (-0.45%) and Mercedes Benz $MBG (-1.31%) are in the next five places.

Andreas Hackethal is not surprised that Getquin investors overweight both the domestic market and the tech sector. The finance professor from Goethe University Frankfurt's own portfolio studies produced similar results: Investors bought many individual stocks and more often than average from the domestic market. In this way, they tried to beat the market. Hackethal criticizes the "poor diversification" of Getquin usersand says: "Having so many individual stocks is an unnecessarily risky strategy."

In relation to the tech sector, this approach is particularly problematic: Because many ETFs already include the big tech companies anyway - including the funds that are most popular with Getquin investors: Replicas of the world equity indices MSCI World and FTSE All World as well as the US S&P 500. There is also one ETF in the top 10 that focuses on technology companies. In this respect, investors have bought a double tech overweight via individual shares and ETFs.

How have the portfolios of Getquin users developed? The strategies look successful over the past year: All custody account groups made gains in 2024, says Steil. The largest portfolios achieved the highest average return.

In the longer term, however, the picture is not so rosy. In 2022, for example, "most of the smaller portfolios made losses", notes Steil. Larger portfolios, on the other hand, show "consistently good figures" over the years, according to the analysis.

The reason is clear: in the largest portfolios, the proportion of individual shares in cryptocurrencies, which also fluctuate greatly in value, is relatively low. The ETF ratio is correspondingly high at just under 40 percent. Investors with larger portfolios therefore invest their capital in a more diversified manner. Olaf Stotz, Professor of Asset Management at the private university Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, explains this as follows: investors would be more rational with larger assets.

Experts generally do not think much of a strategy that tries to achieve higher returns with individual shares than by betting on the broad market. "Buying individual shares is a very bad bet," warns Niels Nauhauser, capital market expert at the consumer advice center in Baden-Württemberg.

Researcher Hackethal confirms this: On average, "investors left three percent return per year if they try to beat the market with certain strategies. The researcher has calculated: Investing in individual shares is "twice or three times as risky" as investing in the MSCI World.

The return on even the largest Getquin portfolios was only 0.5 percentage points higher than the broad US S&P 500 index last year.

With a corresponding index ETF, investors would have achieved almost the same return, but would have spread the risk of portfolio losses much more widely - across all 500 shares in the index.

For Hackethal, there are therefore no rational reasons for an individual share strategy. Why do many people still invest in this way? Hackethal says: "They want to feel a kick. They overestimate themselves. And they want to make money as quickly as possible." All of this is particularly true of younger and male investors.

However, a look at stock market history teaches the opposite: For long-term wealth accumulation, it is important to be patient and realistic, Hackethal emphasizes. Nobody should expect a return of 20 percent or more in the long term.

With an ETF on the global share index MSCI World, an investor could have accumulated 100,000 euros over the past 20 years with a monthly investment of 250 euros. The average annual return was 6.8 percent. With a savings rate of 200 euros per month, this mark would have been broken after 21 years on average.

This is not a rapid increase in wealth, as promised by windy finfluencers with reference to hype stocks such as Nvidia or cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, an investor with such an ETF strategy is taking significantly less risk.

Read the full article here: handelsblatt:%20Diese%20Daten%20zeigen,%20wie%20riskant%20viele%20Deutsche%20investieren%20-%20https%3A//hbapp.handelsblatt.com/cmsid/100094935.html

Source / graphics: Handelsblatt, 17.02.25

DAX reaches new all-time high again 🇩🇪📈💶👑. The left, trade unions and Wahra Sagenknecht would say that the stock market is a casino and a game of chance. Some people just always want to be wrong. Samsung Galaxy Watch 7 Which German shares do you have and how have they performed? #dax
#dax40
$LYY7 (-0.59%)
$SIE (-0.45%)
$ALV (-0.14%)
$SAP (-1.87%)
$VOW (-0.15%)
$BMW (-0.12%)
$P911 (+0.35%)
$RHM (-1.89%)
$ENR (-4.27%)
$AIR (-3.2%)
$DTE (+0.67%)
$DBK (+0.12%)
$DHL (+0.55%)
$CBK (-0.9%)
$MBG (-1.31%)
$PAH3 (+0.48%)

I think Toyota Prius but Mercedes also good, BMW too. Race perhaps the strongest.

Others less good.

Unfortunately Subaru also very very weak.

What is happening with Hyundai ADR? Lies DEAD in my depot.

Renault and Stellantis also quite weak. VW slightly better but not good.

Ferrari is very strong but not really a car stock.

Porsche Holding, interesting.

Here is a photo of my beautiful family carriage

$7203 (-0.72%)

$MBG (-1.31%)

$BMW (-0.12%)

$7270 (+2.96%)

$STLAM (-0.34%)

$RNO (-1.67%)

$RACE (-0.5%)

After I wrote in the first post about the consequences of the announced and effective tariffs of the USA... there are now some concrete answers from the affected countries, especially from Canada.

It's hard to keep up with all the news 👀

In this post, I go into more detail about the possible consequences for the EU, especially for the automotive sector.

"1st post from this morning" can be read again here: https://getqu.in/oj1JRH/

Trump's new tariffs: Recap

Since February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

• Trump's decrees also contain a passage stating that the tariffs could be increased or extended if the countries respond with retaliatory measures [1].

Canada: A tough counterattack

• Canada has already reported on countermeasures in the form of three levels of escalation [2]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Now it's getting concrete:

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced at a press conference in the evening Canadian time that tariffs of 25 percent will also be introduced on US goods from Tuesday next week 🔄 [2].

The tariffs planned by Canada are intended for US goods with a total value of 155 billion dollars.

The Canadian government is also considering measures in other areas, such as trade in critical minerals.

Further effects on companies:

• Canadian exports to the USA will become more expensive and therefore less competitive.

Particularly affected: (automotive, energy, raw materials, agriculture)

German car manufacturers used Canada as a production and export location

• Volkswagen $VOW3 (+1.32%) , BMW $BMW (-0.12%) , Mercedes Benz $MBG (-1.31%)
• e.g. VW is planning a battery factory in Canada to supply its US plants, Trudeau's government has lured the billion-euro project with high subsidies [2]. Trump's tariffs could make this billion-euro project unprofitable 🤡

Canadian oil and gas producers sell large quantities to the US, higher tariffs could make exports less attractive and squeeze profits.

• affected e.g. Canadian Natural Resources $CNQ (-0.99%) Suncor Energy $SU (-1.36%)

Fertilizer producers are heavily dependent on US exports, higher costs and a competitive disadvantage compared to US competitors represent a potential risk.

• affected e.g. Nutrien $NTR (-0.83%)

Mexico: The USA punishes its most important trading partner

Counter-tariffs possible: President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced corresponding measures and instructed her Secretary of Commerce to implement a plan that considers counter-tariffs [2]. - We can be curious.

Mexico's dependence on the USA:

• According to economists, the tariff policy is likely to harm both economies through higher inflation and job losses.
• 80% of Mexican exports go to the USA, no other country exports more to the US.
• Millions of jobs and thousands of companies depend on the US market 💀

Trump uses tariffs as political leverage:

• He wants to force Mexico to take a tougher stance against illegal migration and drug cartels.
• He also accuses China of circumventing tariffs by allowing Chinese companies to export from Mexico to the USA.

Impact on European companies: (again the car manufacturers 👀)

• Almost all manufacturers and many suppliers use Mexico as a cheap production location and serve the US market from there
• VW, Audi and BMW have their own factories in the country, while Mercedes Benz produces in a joint plant with Nissan.
• With an additional surcharge, it hardly makes sense to send cars from Mexico to the USA.
• In response, manufacturers are expected to relocate at least part of their production from Mexico to the USA (at high cost, of course), where VW, BMW and Mercedes also have plants.

China: a further burden for an ailing economy

• China strongly criticized the punitive tariffs [2].
• Complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO): China sees the tariffs as unfair and wants to take legal action against them.

Consequences for China:

• US tariffs make Chinese products more expensive in the USA.
• The already weakening economy will be further burdened.

Indirect effects on Europe:

Chinese manufacturers such as BYD $1211 (+2.45%) could be forced to develop alternative markets and push even harder into Europe.

• The result: more competition for German car manufacturers and possible price wars.
• VW & Co. are already struggling with overcapacity in Germany.

Furthermore:

• Foxconn $2354 an important Apple supplier with production in China and Mexico
• Punitive tariffs could make it necessary to relocate production.

Is the EU facing the same fate?

Trump has already indicated that the EU must also fear tariffs.

• His main argument: the EU has treated the USA unfairly in trade.

Possible measures:

• Tariffs on... who would have thought... the automotive industry and also other exports from the EU.
• Car exports to the USA could become increasingly unprofitable -> relocating production to the USA could ultimately be the only solution.
• A new edition of the trade conflict from Trump's first term in office (2017-2021).

Possible reaction of the EU:

• If Trump escalates again, the EU could also take retaliatory measures so far I haven't heard anything concrete 😴

Conclusion: Trade war 2.0?

Trump is once again focusing on confrontation and using tariffs as economic and political leverage. The countries affected are fighting back, which increases the risk of a global trade war.

The consequences are far-reaching:

USA: Higher prices for consumers, relocation of production to the domestic market possible.

China: Further economic pressure, stronger focus on Europe as a sales market.

Mexico & Canada: Massive burden on the economy & industry, relocation of production conceivable.

Europe: German car manufacturers under pressure, possible US tariffs on European products.

I'm in the mood... Thanks for reading, I've had enough now! 🤝

__________

Main sources:

[1] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html

[2] https://de.finance.yahoo.com/nachrichten/roundup-kanada-mexiko-china-kontern-083517258.html

Which German shares did you buy and how did they perform?#dax
#dax40
#deutschland
$SAP (-1.87%)
$RHM (-1.89%)
$MUV2 (-0.6%)
$ALV (-0.14%)
$ADS (-0.81%)
$DE000A0PNN47
$VOW (-0.15%)
$MBG (-1.31%)
$P911 (+0.35%)
$PAH3 (+0.48%)
$BMW (-0.12%)
$DTE (+0.67%)
$DHL (+0.55%)
$DB1 (-0.57%)
$DBK (+0.12%)
$RHM (-1.89%)
$AIR (-3.2%)
$LYY7 (-0.59%)

The German commercial vehicle manufacturer Daimler Truck has secured the largest order for electric trucks in the company's history.

Amazon has ordered 200 heavy-duty Mercedes-Benz eActros 600 electric trucks, the online retailer announced on Monday. "This is an important milestone for us," Andreas Marschner, Vice President of Amazon Worldwide Operations Sustainability, told the Reuters news agency. "Decarbonizing heavy-duty transport is the most difficult part of transportation." The vehicles are to be used in Germany and the UK and will be integrated into the online retailer's network this year. According to Amazon, this is the largest order of electric trucks for the company to date. The 40-ton trucks are to be used in the medium-distance network between fulfillment centers, sorting centers and delivery bases.

The eActros 600 has a range of 500 kilometers and is therefore well suited to Amazon's delivery network, according to Marschner. To support the use of the trucks, Amazon is building a network of 360-kilowatt fast-charging stations at its locations. These can charge a truck from 20 to 80 percent in less than an hour, "which is also compatible with the legally prescribed breaks for drivers," explains Marschner. The order is part of Amazon's voluntary commitment to achieve net-zero emissions at all sites by 2040.

$AMZN (-2.39%)
$DTG (-1.07%)
$MBG (-1.31%)