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The weak dollar exchange rate against the euro for months now is having a noticeable impact on German companies. Numerous companies are expecting significantly lower profits in the second quarter and a continuing burden from the unfavorable exchange rate.

At the end of February, the euro was still trading at around 1.05 dollars, and some were even expecting the currencies to reach parity. But the opposite has happened: Since the threat of high US tariffs in March, the US currency has been weakening, with one euro currently costing 1.17 dollars - a 14% appreciation of the euro.

Large companies with strong foreign operations are particularly affected by this. "In the Dax, that's almost all of them," says Jörg Held, Head of Portfolio Management at the fund company Ethenea. He warns that the weakness of the dollar is "becoming a measurable profit killer". Many experts believe that the negative impact of the currency constellation will not disappear for the time being.

Companies' results will come under pressure in two ways: products from export-oriented companies such as $P911 (+0.77%) Porsche become more expensive when their price is converted into dollars. Their competitiveness is weakened because competing products from companies in other currency areas with lower exchange rate fluctuations become comparatively cheaper.

"A ten percent appreciation of the euro reduces the profit growth of European companies by three to five percentage points over the course of a year," calculates Ulrich Stephan, Chief Investment Strategist at Deutsche Bank.

• BASF
  $BAS (+5.65%) has lowered its forecast for 2025 by eight percent and now expects an adjusted profit of between 7.3 and 7.7 billion euros. Currency effects already depressed earnings in the second quarter. The negative effect on earnings is primarily due to the translation of earnings generated abroad into euros. In February, the world's largest chemical company was still expecting an exchange rate of 1.05 dollars per euro for the year as a whole. BASF is now assuming 1.15 dollars.

• SAP $SAP (+2.85%) sees a "significant headwind in the profit and loss account this year" due to the development of exchange rates, as CFO Dominik Asam says. Every percentage point by which the dollar depreciates leads to a loss of around half a percentage point in growth for SAP.

• Wacker Chemie
  $WCH (+2.99%) expects the current exchange rate level to continue. The rule of thumb within the Group is that a depreciation of the dollar against the euro of one dollar cent will have an impact of around minus three million euros on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization without hedging.

Analysts expect the weak dollar to affect other DAX companies. JP Morgan, for example, has just withdrawn its buy recommendation for Airbus shares $AIR (+0.43%) shares, partly because the exchange rate is putting pressure on profit margins. The aircraft manufacturer mainly produces in the eurozone, while the majority of its revenue is generated in dollars.

The real beneficiaries of the weak dollar are based in the USA. For example, the world's largest healthcare group Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+0.12%) has just raised its forecast for 2025. The second quarter was stronger than analysts had expected. In international business, however, Group sales grew almost solely due to the positive impact of the dollar.

The current weakness of the dollar as the world's leading currency is not only affecting companies that trade with the USA: All companies, regardless of whether they export to Asia, Oceania, Africa or South America, are affected, as the majority of international payment transactions and trade contracts are still settled in US dollars.

Experts expect the dollar to weaken further.

"In our view, we are only at the beginning of the bear market for the dollar," says Laurent Denize, co-investment manager at Oddo BHF. Many banks are assuming that the 1.20 dollar per euro mark could soon be reached.

There are several reasons for this: the tariff and trade dispute, the associated changeable and unpredictable policy in the US, the high level of new debt and, finally, US President Donald Trump's public criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. All of this is undermining confidence in a reliable US policy - and: "All of this is tarnishing the image of the US dollar," says foreign exchange expert Sonja Marten from DZ Bank.

The discussion about a possible de-dollarization has been gaining momentum for months. This refers to the debate about whether the US dollar is losing its nimbus as the world's reserve currency. "For the first time in a long time, we believe this discussion is actually justified," says Marten. In her opinion, investors looking for alternatives to the dollar will inevitably end up in the eurozone.

If this happens, the euro will continue to gain in value as money flows from dollar to euro investments.

The trend towards the euro is likely to be fueled by the fact that the European Central Bank has probably almost reached the end of its cycle of interest rate cuts after eight cuts in the last two years. The financial markets are only pricing in a further small interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points by the end of next year.

By contrast, market participants in the US are expecting four interest rate cuts totaling one percentage point by the end of 2026, according to data from the financial news service Bloomberg. The interest rate level between the two currency regions is therefore likely to converge.

The result: the previous advantage for investors in the USA of receiving more interest for their investments there would disappear. This would make dollar investments (even) less attractive in future and, in turn, create further potential for the euro - to the chagrin of export-oriented companies from the eurozone with a strong international presence.

Source (excerpt) & chart: Handelsblatt, 25.07.25

00:00:00 Introduction

00:03:50 WisdomTree Europe Defense ETF (WKN: A40Y9K)

00:27:58 Rheinmetall (WKN: 703000)

00:38:58 Airbus (WKN: 938914)

00:49:20 Hensoldt (HAG000)

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/6ykwFYV8kqqbTrzAHOqMXw?si=7BU7fBseTh2zHOqH8wpksQ

YouTube

https://youtu.be/QSxG1aJezKU

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/101-rheinmetall-airbus-hensoldt-wisdomtree-europe-defence/id1695869891?i=1000718065836

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#etf
#etfs
#podcast
#spotify

Hello everyone,

My husband and I are about to buy a house. The new house is supposed to cost €750,000... plus costs such as the kitchen, floors, garden, utilities, etc., of course.

We have done some calculations and are thinking about using between €125,000 and €150,000 of our €225,000 capital so that we get a good interest rate and the monthly installment is not too high, as the construction will take 2 years (with demolition of the old house) and we are also paying rent.

However, we both have a good cash flow, around 10-11k net per month together.

What do you think? What should I sell and when? Get half of everything out quickly? Stop loss everywhere so that we don't take another crash with us? I think we'll have to pay the first installment in the fall, the purchase of the property and ancillary costs.

Maybe someone has some experience :)$AIR (+0.43%)
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This video will also be released as a podcast on Monday.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v86I0dXXyiE

Half of the year is now over. Incidentally, since July 2, we are closer to the year 2050 than to the year 2000 - just saying.

How could it be otherwise, June was also quite volatile in the middle, but the S&P500 regained everything and closed June with +2.12%. YTD, however, it is still at -7.36%.

In June, I recorded a loss of 0.32%. This corresponds to a value of around €380. It has to be said that I received fewer dividends, as getquin does not deduct withholding tax. But more about the dividends later.

The Dax (-1.11%) was finally worse than my portfolio this month. However, the HSBC MSCI World (+0.68%) beat me this time. Well, the DAX still has a bit of a head start. However, the MSCI is catching up considerably over the year. Nevertheless, I still have a slight lead of around 4%.

My high and low performers in June were (top 3):

Nintendo ($7974 (+2.76%) ) +14,96%

Airbus ($AIR (+0.43%) ) +9,91%

Texas Instruments ($TXN (+2.03%) ) +9,63%

McDonald's ($MCD (+0.61%) ) -9,24%

Procter & Gamble ($PG (-0.02%) ) -9,63%

Nestle ($NESN (+1.62%) ) -10,17%

Texas Instruments $TXN (+2.03%) is among the top 3 stocks again. But still only just over 0% for the year. The customs hullabaloo has simply taken its toll.

Airbus $AIR (+0.43%) is of course benefiting from the Boeing disaster and the defense division is also doing quite well.

Nintendo $7974 (+2.76%) has finally released the Switch 2 and is rising and rising and rising. I would have bought more six months ago... You're always smarter afterwards.

Dividends:

In June, I received €277.64 net from a total of 26 distributions.

Compared to June 2024 (€130.83), this was an increase of 112.21%.

Now comes July. The announcement of the distribution from the Global Dividend Growth ETF is not quite as bad as expected. The worst month of the year has thus changed to October.

Investments:

I still haven't finished building up my nest egg. I still haven't received the bill for the car repairs, so I still have a lot to put aside for that. In the meantime, it could come slowly so that I can finally get it off my plate. Apart from that, my nest egg is growing but it will take some time before it is at a satisfactory level. However, it should reach €10,000 by the end of December, provided nothing serious unforeseen happens.

Purchases and sales:

There were no sales in June.

I bought or increased Hershey (2 shares) and Pepsi (2 shares)

savings plans (125€ in total):

• Cintas $CTAS (-0.09%)
• LVMH $MC (+1.63%)
• Microsoft $MSFT (+0.59%)

Goals 2025:

My goal is still to have €130,000 in my portfolio at the end of the year. This target is to be achieved by reinvesting the dividend, making payments and, of course, increasing the share price. The share price increase is of course impossible to predict in any way, so the motto is: if the share price falls or does not rise enough, more cash is needed.

This comes from selling useless stuff on eBay, additional income from e.g. "neighborhood help" etc.

The worse the share price, the more additional cash has to be raised.

Target achievement at the end of June 2025: 44.44%

Who would have thought that I should actually be at least 50%. I'm not, which means I'm lagging a little behind the optimal path again. But what can't be done, can still be done.

How was your June?

Do you have any particular goals for the second half of the year?

If you're interested in a mid-year review from me, please let me know in the comments.

If you liked the report and would like to read more, feel free to follow me,

If you're not interested, feel free to keep scrolling or use the block function.

Hello everyone!

My parents are in the process of selling my grandparents' house. It will probably fetch around €275,000. My parents will soon both be 60 years old.

They had initially considered buying another property nearby. But they have moved away again. The lack of flexibility and the time and risk involved with tenants put them off.

I also told them more about investing in the stock market. They were very open and interested, even though they said they had an unfounded fear of shares etc.

Now my question to you. What is the best way to invest the money? I think dividends would be very nice as my parents like the passive income like from a property. But it should also be very well diversified across countries and sectors.

I personally have developed 2 solutions. You can give your opinion as to whether you think the solutions are good or, of course, if you have completely different ideas.

1. the ETF solution

15% $XEOD (-0%) Call money ETF. Div. 1.9%

15% $TDIV (+0.62%) VanEck Divi Leaders. Div 3.5%

10% $TRET (+0.7%) Global Real Estate. Div. 3.7%

7,5% $VHYL (+0.56%) Allworld High Div Yi. Div 3.1%

7,5% $PEH (+0.75%) FTSE RAFI EM. Div 3.9%

5% $EWG2 (+0.13%) Gold

5% $SEDY (+0.98%) iShares EM Dividend. Div 8.0%

5% $JEGP (+0.16%) JPM Global Equity Inc Div 7.1%

5% $EEI (+0.48%) WisTree Europ Equity Inc Div 6.3%

5% $IHYG (+0.12%) High Yield Bond. Div 6.1%

5% $EXXW (+1.21%) AsiaPac Select Div50 Div 5.5%

15% Rest German Divi Shares approx. div 2.5%

=100% with 3.7% dividend.

275k ×3,7% = 10.175€

With full taxation 27.99% = 7327€

On average per month: 610€ dividend

With 2k tax-free allowance: 657€ dividend per month

I find it very well diversified, you have overnight money, you have the USA and Europe well represented, but also 12.5% emerging markets ETF. In terms of sectors, finance will be at the forefront. Followed by real estate and energy. I think that's fine.

2. the equity solution

I have selected 34 strong dividend stocks. In the list they are roughly divided into GICS sectors.

15% $XEOD (-0%) Overnight ETF. Div 1.9%

12% $EQQQ (+0.95%) Nasdaq100 ETF. Div 0.4%

5% $EWG2 (+0.13%) Gold

2% $O (+0.44%) Realty Income 6.0%

2% $VICI (+0.41%) Vici Properties 5.6%

2% $OHI (-0.3%) Omega Healthcare 7.2%

2% $PLD (+0.64%) Prologis 4.1%

2% $ALV (+4.93%) Allianz 4.35%

2% $HNR1 (+2.17%) Hannover Re 3.4%

2% $D05 (+3.43%) DBS Group 5.5%

2% $ARCC (+0.66%) Ares Capital 9.3

2% $6301 (+0.94%) Komatsu. 4,2%

2% $1 (+2.48%) CK Hutchison 4.6%

2% $AENA (+0.29%) AENA. 4,2%

2% $LOG (+0.85%) Logista 7.3%

1,5% $AIR (+0.43%) Airbus 1.8%

1,5% $DHL (+3.71%) DHL Group 4.8%

1,5% $8001 (-0.62%) Itochu 2.8%

2% $RIO (+0.99%) RioTinto plc 6.4%

2% $LIN (+0.47%) Linde 1.3%

2% $ADN (-1.77%) Acadian Timber 6.7%

3,5% $BATS (+0%) BAT 7.0%

2% $KO (-0.21%) Coca Cola 2.9

2% $HEN (+2.87%) Henkel 3.0%

2% $KVUE (-1.75%) Kenvue 4.1%

2% $ITX (+1.46%) Inditex 3.6%

2% $MCD (+0.61%) McDonalds 2.6%

2% $690D (+1.84%) Haier Smart Home 5.6

3,5% $IBE (+0.03%) Iberdrola. 4,1%

1,5% $AWK (+0.16%) American Water Works 4.4%

1,5% $SHEL (-0.57%) Shell 4.1%

1,5% $ENB (+0.58%) Enbridge 6.5%

2% $DTE (-4.21%) Deutsche Telekom 2.8%

2% $VZ (+0%) Verizon 6.8%

2% $GSK (+0.38%) GlaxoSmithKline 4.2

2% $AMGN (+1.32%) Amgen 3.5%

2% $JNJ (+0.12%) Johnson&Johnson 3.5%

= 100% with 3.5% dividend

275k ×3,5% = 9625€

With full taxation 27.99% = 6930€

On average per month: 577€ dividend

With 2k tax-free allowance: 624€ dividend per month

I also think this solution is cool because you can select the largest companies or strong dividend payers in the individual sectors or countries yourself. And of course you can also select shares with which you have a connection. However, I have focused on shares from the USA, England and Germany because of the withholding tax. Spain is also well represented because of my parents' ties to this country. It's also cool that the NasdaqETF also includes the Microsoft, Amazon, etc. compounders.

What do you think?

Eurofighter GmbH:

Eurofighter GmbH is a consortium responsible for the development, production and support of the Eurofighter Typhoon. The companies involved include Airbus, BAE Systems and Leonardo.

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MTU Aero Engines is a German engine manufacturer and plays a central role in the development and production of the EJ200 engine for the Eurofighter.

$MTX (+0.53%)

The partners in the Eurofighter consortium are planning to increase annual production of the fighter aircraft from 14 to 20 aircraft and are even considering an increase to 30 aircraft in the long term, should corresponding orders be received. According to Jorge Tamarit Degenhardt, CEO of Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug GmbH, the increase in annual output by six aircraft is to be realized within 36 months.

As the manager explained to journalists at the Paris Air Show on Wednesday, sales campaigns for the fighter aircraft are currently underway in Turkey, Portugal, Austria, Saudi Arabia and Poland. For the British Ministry of Defense, the campaign in Saudi Arabia is a "must", as it is an important location for BAE Systems, where around 7,000 people are employed.

Tamarit Degenhardt basically sees an export potential of more than 100 machines, but conceded that the German position could represent an obstacle to exports to Turkey. In addition, further orders could come from the Eurofighter nations.

The CEO of Eurofighter GmbH expects the order for 20 additional Eurofighters for the German Air Force, which the then Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a year ago at the ILA air show in Berlin, to be placed after the summer break.

The Long Term Evolution (LTE) of the Eurofighter has not yet been implemented in the 20 aircraft of Tranche 5. Observers do not want to rule out the possibility that there will be further demand for LTE Eurofighters, especially as they will then be better equipped for use with unmanned platforms. When asked, the Eurofighter manager said that there is currently no timeline for the integration of the Taurus cruise missile into the German Eurofighters. These are to replace the outdated Tornados as the carrier platform for the stand-off weapon.

According to Tamarit Degenhardt, the Eurofighter represents the "Combat Mass" of the European Air Force. Around 80 percent of combat missions are flown with the aircraft. He expects the global fleet of Eurofighters to reach 1 million flight hours by the end of the year.

Lars Hoffmann

https://www.hartpunkt.de/eurofighter-nationen-wollen-die-produktion-hochfahren/

Luftwaffe - new Eurofighters to receive Arexis self-protection system from Saab

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https://www.hartpunkt.de/luftwaffe-neue-eurofighter-sollen-selbstschutzsystem-arexis-von-saab-erhalten/

New in the depot. $AIR (+0.43%)