Today an overview of what can happen to a trader like me. The day before yesterday I fell flat on my face with a derivative on $TUI1 (-1.21%) with a loss of 35%. Today my derivative is up $ADYEN (-0.84%) 60%. So the joys and sorrows are so close together. Let's see what else the day brings.

This morning the TUI AG ($TUI1 (-1.21%) ) FY or Q1 2025 earnings webcast was also held this morning, and I would like to summarize the key points for you.

The first quarter was strong, with revenue up 13% and underlying EBIT up significantly to 51 million euros, mainly driven by the strong performance of Holiday Experiences.

Hotels & Resorts recorded growth of 60 million euros, with a 3% increase in bed numbers, a 2% increase in occupancy and a strong 5% increase in daily rate. The cruise business also performed well, with an increase of 14 million euros despite some refinancing costs. Here, capacity rose by 10%, occupancy by 1% and rates by 4%. TUI Musement also grew by 9 million euros, with the 12% growth in experiences being particularly noteworthy.

Markets & Airlines recorded a decline of 30 million euros. However, there were also positive developments: Dynamic Packaging grew by 18% and app sales by 40%. The integration of Ryanair in December has already shown initial success and further airlines and dynamic connections are set to follow.

In the hotel sector, new locations were opened in Asia, including a Robinson Club in Vietnam and the first TUI Blue Hotel in Indonesia.

Financially, this was the second time that TUI recorded a positive first quarter. The company received a BB rating from Fitch, which represents a positive development in financial stability. The refinancing was completed and the KfW facility was formally removed from the balance sheet.

EBIT development was largely driven by the product sides, in particular hotels and cruises. The decline in Markets & Airlines is attributable to investments in the summer. Cash flow and working capital remained stable, despite the seasonally lower revenue and payments from the summer. Investments were higher this quarter as there were some disposal proceeds in the previous year and hotel projects were postponed.

Bookings for the winter are positive and summer bookings are up 4% year-on-year. The company confirms its forecast for the full year 2025, with revenue growth of 5 % to 10 % and EBIT growth of 7 % to 10 %.

In the following analyst Q&A session, an analyst from Morgan Stanley started after the current trading session. He wanted to know whether the slowdown in bookings in Germany compared to December's figures was a cause for concern. He also asked why hotel average daily rates (ADR) were increasing more in the second half of the year than in the first quarter. The answer was that TUI is benefiting from its global hotel portfolio and rising demand, particularly from America, the Middle East and Asia. In Germany, the focus is on margin protection and volumes are being managed accordingly.

Another point was the rating upgrade, which the analyst addressed. He wanted to know how this would affect the interest expenses of 400 million euros. TUI explained that the improved rating has a direct impact on the costs of the credit facility and will lead to savings in leasing and asset financing in the long term.

An analyst from Bank of America asked about the benefits from the FTI insolvency. The answer was that it is difficult to quantify what impact this will have, but it isbut it is expected that there will be a positive impact.

Richard Clarke from Bernstein asked about the inclusion of Ryanair. He wanted to know if this is in addition to existing capacity. The answer was that capacity will be kept flat while growth will be achieved through dynamic packages such as with Ryanair. It was emphasized that any additional business activity will increase profitability.

Another question related to cruise capacity utilization, which is slightly lower compared to 2019. The response here was that it is expected to return to 2019 levels.

The analyst also asked about a possible dividend payment, to which TUI replied that a dividend strategy will only be presented at the end of 2025, after the financial situation has been stabilized.

An analyst from Deutsche Bank asked about the operating trends in the West region. TUI explained that it does not see a need to sell more firm capacity to protect margins. Instead, growth should come from dynamic package products, as is being done in other countries.

I hope you enjoyed the summary.

Stay tuned!

$TUI1 (-1.21%) The quarterly results and outlook for 2025 are all good, everything in positive territory, yet the shares are trading at almost -8%? Isn't that exaggerated?

Is there an opportunity to buy more?

I'm still holding on to my shares, I'm still up 40% at the moment.

What do you think about the future of TUI? It looks like it's waking up strongly after the COVID crisis.

Regards

Tui gains at the start of winter + UBS positive on Delivery Hero + Mediamarkt parent Ceconomy significantly increases sales and operating profit

TUI $TUI1 (-1.21%)
grows at the start of winter and reduces losses

• Tui, the world's largest travel group, has started the winter season with clear growth.
• In the first financial quarter to the end of December, the Group counted 3.7 million customers, six percent more than a year earlier, as it announced on Tuesday before the start of its Annual General Meeting in Hanover.
• For the rest of the year, smaller increases are expected so far: Tui has so far registered two percent more bookings than in the previous year for both the winter as a whole and the summer season.
• Prices rose by four percent. "We are on track for further growth for the year as a whole," said Tui CEO Sebastian Ebel.
• In the travel-weak months of October to December, turnover jumped by 13 percent to around 4.9 billion euros.
• Before interest, taxes and special effects (adjusted EBIT), Tui earned around 51 million euros, more than eight times as much as a year earlier.
• The bottom line was a loss of a good 85 million euros for shareholders.
• Tourism companies are usually in the red in winter.
• They make their profits in the peak travel season in summer.

UBS positive on Delivery Hero $DHER (-3.81%)

• Shares in online food delivery services are in demand on Monday.
• MDax leader Delivery Hero made it back above the technically significant 21-day moving average thanks to price gains of 5 percent.
• This is an important trend indicator for the short-term development.
• The same applied to the shares of cooking box mail order company Hellofresh , which rose by 2.6 percent.
• In Amsterdam and London, the shares of industry colleagues Just Eat Takeaway and Deliveroo met with buying interest, as shown by price gains of 2.9 and 1.3 percent respectively.
• The major Swiss bank UBS continues to recommend buying Delivery Hero.
• The confirmed price target of 55 euros implies a doubling of the current share price.
• Analyst Jo Barnet-Lamb wrote that data showed a stabilized market share for the subsidiary Baemin in South Korea in January.
• Market growth there remained in the double-digit percentage range in December.
• The focus remains on a possible gradual recovery story for the company in 2025.
• One trader also saw advance praise for Delivery Hero's upcoming quarterly figures this Thursday as a possible price driver for the sector.

Mediamarkt parent company Ceconomy $CEC (-2.01%)significantly increases turnover and operating profit

• The Mediamarkt and Saturn parent company Ceconomy has achieved a leap in operating profit thanks to a strict cost-cutting program.
• The SDax company increased its earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) adjusted for special effects by almost 13 percent to 279 million euros in the three months to the end of December compared to the previous year, as it announced in Düsseldorf on Tuesday.
• Analysts had expected roughly that much.
• Currency and portfolio-adjusted sales increased by almost a tenth to 7.6 billion euros, exceeding the average analyst estimates.
• The Executive Board is sticking to its known targets for the current financial year 2024/25 (until the end of September).
• Adjusted for currency and portfolio effects, Group sales are set to increase "moderately".
• Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) adjusted for special effects, on the other hand, are expected to increase "significantly".
• Last week, rumors of renewed interest from Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com boosted Ceconomy's share price.

• The news agency Bloomberg reported that the Beijing-based company had recently approached the company and had begun to sound out major shareholders of the Düsseldorf-based company with a view to a possible deal, citing people familiar with the matter.

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Japan stock exchange holiday

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Visa USD 0.59
• ASML Holding USD 1.59

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 12:00 DuPont quarterly figures
• 12:30 Humana quarterly figures
• 13:00 Coca-Cola | Marriott International annual results
• No time specified: American International Group | Lyft | Gilead Sciences Quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:00 Ceconomy | Tui | Unicredit | AMS-Osram annual results
• 07:10 Norma Group preliminary annual results
• 07:45 Kering annual results
• 08:00 Cancom | BP annual results | Tui PK
• 09:00 Ceconomy analyst conference
• 11:00 Tui AGM | Ceconomy PK
• 19:00 Deutsche Börse | Telekom Austria Annual Results

Economic data

• 07:30 FR: Unemployment rate 4Q PROGNOSE: 7.5% Q3: 7.4%
• 08:00 DE: Domestic tourism December and year 2024
• 11:30 DE: Auction of 2.40% German government bonds maturing in April 2030 (volume EUR 5bn)
• 16:00 US: Fed Chairman Powell, hearing in the Senate Banking Committee
• 18:00 DE: ECB Director Schnabel, participation in IAB panel
• 19:00 Deutsche Börse | Telekom Austria annual results
• 21:30 US: Fed New York President Williams, speech at Pace University Economics Society event

No time specified:

• US: President Donald Trump receives Jordan's King Abdullah II at the White House
• EU: End of the two-day international summit on artificial intelligence, Paris

$TUI1 (-1.21%)

The major hurdle of €8 has been overcome. If the figures are correct in 1 week, there will be a further increase, the short sellers will have to buy more and this will drive the price even higher.

26.11.2024

BICO with poor quarterly figures + Trump's tariff threats weigh on stock markets + Tui wants to further reduce debt and invest

BICO Group
$BICO (-4.29%) delivers very poor quarterly figures

• Net sales amounted to SEK 495.5 million (587.6), which corresponds to a decline of -15.7% compared to the same quarter last year.
• Organic sales growth for the quarter amounted to -12.6% (16.7%). From Q1 2024, BICO reports all organic growth figures in constant currency
• The gross margin amounted to 53.1% (52.8%). As of Q1 2024, BICO has switched to functional reporting and the comparative figures have been adjusted
• Adjusted EBITDA amounted to SEK 39.6 million (94.7), which corresponds to a margin of 8.0% (16.1%)
• EBITDA amounted to SEK 37.0 M (89.5), which corresponds to a margin of 7.5% (15.2%).
• Net profit/loss for the quarter from continuing operations amounted to SEK -247.5 M (-40.1), which corresponds to earnings per share from continuing operations before and after dilution of SEK -3.49 (-0.57)
• Cash flow from operating activities amounted to SEK 45.0 million (3.6)

On his first day in office, US President-elect Donald Trump intends to impose high import tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada as well as additional tariffs on goods from China. This will be one of his first executive orders on January 20, Trump explained on the Truth Social platform, which he co-founded.

Tariffs of 25 percent are to apply to goods from Mexico and Canada. The US President-elect justified this with immigrants who bring crime and drugs across these two borders into the USA. Until this stops, the tariffs should remain in force. Both Canada and Mexico have the power to solve the problem. "We hereby call on them to use their power, and until they do, it's time for them to pay a very high price," Trump explained. Additional tariffs of ten percent are to apply to goods from China. Trump also justified this with the fact that drugs such as the deadly fentanyl were entering the USA from the country. Although China has announced that it will take action against this, it has not done so. US President Joe Biden, who is still in office, met China's head of state Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Community (Apec) summit in the Peruvian capital Lima just over a week ago. Xi had assured Biden there that he also wanted to work together with the future US administration under Trump.

With the share price of TUI $TUI1 (-1.21%) Sebastian Ebel is not satisfied. However, the Tui CEO will not be boosting the share price with a dividend payment for the time being; his focus in the use of free cash flow is on investments and debt reduction. "Our goal is to reduce our net leverage to well below 1x. When we present our figures for the financial year in December, you will see that we have already taken a big step towards this goal," Ebel told the Börsen-Zeitung. The rating has not yet returned to pre-crisis levels. "These components are the basis for formulating a sustainable dividend policy, which is an entrepreneurial decision that we will make in due course," said Ebel. (Börsen-Zeitung)

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Johnson & Johnson USD 1.24

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

13:00 Analog Devices quarterly figures

13:30 Abercrombie & Fitch quarterly figures

22:30 HP Inc quarterly figures

No time specified: Dell | Best Buy | Autodesk | Macy's Quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Siemens Healthineers detailed annual results and annual report

Untimed: Stratec - Analyst conference on the occasion of the German Equity Forum

Economic data

• 11:00 FI: ECB Governing Council member Rehn, hearing in the parliament's economic committee
• 15:00 US: FHFA House Price Index 9/24
• 16:00 US: Consumer Confidence Index November PROGNOSIS: 113.0 previous: 108.7
• 16:00 US: New Home Sales October FORECAST: -2.4% yoy previous: +4.1% yoy
• 20:00 US: Fed, minutes of the FOMC meeting, November 6 and 7

$SOL (+2.97%)

Sometimes you also need luck 🍀:

On New Year's Eve 2022, I opened a new securities account with Finanzen.zero because I was curious about the shares that were given as a gift (you can always try it).

As a condition, I had to deposit €100. Done, done.

The gift share was a $TUI1 (-1.21%) TUI share for around €3.30. Disappointed, I sold the share and put the €100 into Solana. Let's see what happens, you can't do anything with the €100 anyway.

I also had €50 left on TR and put it into Solana at the same time.

With the 150€ investment I am now 1500% in profit. I currently have around 2500€ in Solana, which is by far my best coin in terms of percentage profit.

🙂

23.10.2024

IBM with strong profit growth but sales disappoint + Tesla share jumps after quarterly figures + Musk promises two million robotaxis per year + Coca-Cola exceeds expectations in the third quarter + TUI picks up speed: Break made and share price continues to rise

Strong demand for software has IBM $IBM (-0.47%) a surprisingly high quarterly profit. The artificial intelligence (AI) developed by the IT group is trustworthy and powerful, said CEO Arvind Krishna on Wednesday. He expects similar growth rates for the annual financial statements as in the past quarter. He is also confident of achieving the full-year target for free cash flow, which was raised to twelve billion dollars a few months ago and is used as an indicator for the dividend amount. Thanks to the growing demand for profitable AI software, IBM made a net profit of 2.30 dollars per share in the past quarter. The volume of the AI order book, which includes orders and booked sales related to this technology, has grown by one to three billion dollars in recent months, emphasized CEO Krishna. However, due to a weakening consulting and infrastructure business, total sales fell short of expectations at 14.97 billion dollars. The gloomy economic outlook had an impact here, explained IBM CFO James Kavanaugh in an interview with the Reuters news agency.

The electric car manufacturer Tesla $TSLA (-4.32%) earned more in the past quarter than Wall Street had expected. The share price jumped by more than nine percent at times in after-hours trading in New York on Wednesday. In terms of turnover, Tesla just missed analysts' forecasts. Revenue rose by eight percent year-on-year to just under 25.2 billion dollars. The market had expected an average of around 25.4 billion dollars. The money that Tesla earns from the sale of CO2 certificates to car manufacturers with combustion engines also played a role here. In the pure car business, turnover rose by two percent to a good 20 billion dollars. On the bottom line, Tesla's profit rose by 17 percent year-on-year to around 2.17 billion dollars. Adjusted earnings per share amounted to 72 US cents - while analysts had only expected 58 US cents. Tesla increased deliveries in the past quarter by six percent to just under 463,000 vehicles. The lion's share of this was made up of around 440,000 cars from the more affordable Models 3 and Y. However, the new electric pickup "Cybertruck" now follows them in third place in the ranking of electric vehicles sold in the USA, Tesla announced without providing a specific sales figure.

Elon Musk is backtracking on his bold promises to make Tesla the leading provider of self-driving cars. At least two million vehicles of the specialized robotaxi model "Cybercab" will be built annually, "maybe four million in the end", Musk said at the presentation of fresh quarterly figures. He qualified that the forecast was his "best possible estimate". Moreover, every current Tesla electric car will be able to drive autonomously anyway.

https://de.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/TESLA-INC-6344549/news/Musk-verspricht-zwei-Millionen-Robotaxis-pro-Jahr-48147007/

The Coca-Cola Co. $KO (+2.3%) beat analysts' estimates of USD 0.75 with earnings per share of USD 0.77 in the third quarter. Sales of USD 11.9 billion above expectations of USD 11.63 billion. Coca-Cola exceeds expectations in the third quarter with organic sales growth of nine percent, although net sales declined slightly. The Group is more optimistic for 2024 and is raising its forecast for organic sales growth to ten percent.

The TUI share $TUI1 (-1.21%) gains more than one percent to 7.62 euros on Wednesday. The next resistance level is the psychologically important 8 euro mark. If further buyers come onto the scene, it could continue above this level towards 9.50 euros. A horizontal resistance can be identified there - the November 2022 high was around EUR 9.48.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/tui-nimmt-fahrt-auf-break-geschafft-kurs-steigt-weiter-20368747.html

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

BAE Systems GBP 0.12

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

07:00 Hyundai quarterly figures

07:30 LG Electronics quarterly figures

12:00 UPS quarterly figures

12:30 Honeywell quarterly figures

13:00 American Airlines quarterly figures

14:00 Dow Inc quarterly figures

No time specified: Harley-Davidson | Valero Energy | ResMed | Hasbro | Southern Company | Northrop Grumman | Weyerhaeuser Quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

06:45 Equinor ASA Quarterly figures

07:00 Beiersdorf | Siltronic | Takkt | Amadeus Fire quarterly figures | Renault sales 3Q

07:30 Orange SA | Symrise Trading Update 9 months | Danone sales 3Q

08:00 MTU | LPKF Laser | Villeroy & Boch | Anglo American | Barclays Quarterly Figures | Hermes Turnover 3Q | Unilever | Relx | London Stock Ex. Trading Statement

17:45 Vinci | Accor 3Q sales

18:30 Valeo 3Q sales

Without time information: Sodexo | Dassault Systemes quarterly figures | Atos sales 3Q

Economic data

• 08:00 JP: Machine tool orders 9/24 (final)
• 08:45 FR: Business Climate Index October PROGNOSIS: 98 previously: 99
• 09:15 FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing | Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing
• 09:30 DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (1st release) October FORECAST: 50.6 PREVIOUS: 50.6 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (1st release) FORECAST: 47.6 PREVIOUS: 47.5
• 09:30 DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing (1st release) October FORECAST: 40.7 PREVIOUS: 40.6
• 10:00 EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing Eurozone (1st release) October FORECAST: 51.5 PREVIOUS: 51.4
• 10:00 EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing Eurozone (1st release) October FORECAST: 45.3 PREVIOUS: 45.0 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (1st release) FORECAST: 49.8 PREVIOUS: 49.6
• 10:30 UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing | Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 245,000 Previous: 241,000
• 15:45 US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Services (1st release) October FORECAST: 55.3 PREVIOUS: 55.2
• 15:45 US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (1st release) October FORECAST: 47.5 PREVIOUS: 47.3
• 16:00 US: New Home Sales September FORECAST: +0.6% yoy previous: -4.7% yoy

02.10.2024

Middle East escalation drives oil and armaments, airlines weak + Boeing considers billion-euro capital increase

Oil stocks benefited from the news of a possible conflagration in the oil-rich Middle East, as this is associated with the risk of a shortage of the raw material. Chevron $CVX (-0.58%) , Exxonmobil $XOM (-0.73%) and ConocoPhillips $COP (-3.4%) gained up to 2.4 percent in New York. In Europe Totalenergies $TTE (-1.26%) and Eni $ENI (-0.63%) rose by up to 1.4 percent. In times of war, it is also not unusual for arms manufacturers to see share price gains. In the USA, for example Lockheed Martin $LMT (+2.16%) and RTX $RTX (-1.21%) recorded gains of around 2.7 percent in some cases, while in Europe Rheinmetall $RHM (-1.89%) was particularly popular in Europe, with a rise of more than 5 percent. BAE Systems $BA. (-0.14%) were 3 percent higher.

The situation was different for shares in tourism groups and airlines. For the latter, the risks of higher kerosene prices are increasing. Some travel destinations may also be canceled for the time being and the risk of terrorist attacks is increasing. Investors in Tui $TUI1 (-1.21%) saw their share price fall by 2.5 percent. For the share price of Lufthansa $LHA (-0.44%) fell by more than 2 percent. IAG $IAG (-1.73%) lost 3.9 percent. Shares in US airlines such as American, Delta and United Airlines fell by up to 2.4 percent.

The US aircraft manufacturer Boeing $BA (-1.57%) is considering a capital increase in the double-digit billion range in its ongoing crisis, according to insiders. The company is considering issuing new shares worth at least 10 billion US dollars (just under 9 billion euros), the Bloomberg news agency reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The fresh money from shareholders is intended to fill the manufacturer's coffers, which are becoming ever emptier as a result of years of ongoing crisis with flight bans and production restrictions as well as the recent strike by tens of thousands of employees. A Boeing spokesperson declined to comment. According to insiders, it is likely to be at least a month before Boeing gets serious about such a capital increase

Economic data, quarterly figures

Stock market holiday in China

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Cisco Systems USD 0.40

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Grenke new business 3Q

09:00 Gea Group Capital Markets Day

No time specified: Totalenergies Investor Day - 2024 Strategy & Outlook

Economic data

• 11:00 EU: Labor market data August Eurozone Unemployment rate Forecast: 6.4% Previous: 6.4%
• 14:15 US: ADP Labor Market Report September Private Sector Employment PROGNOSE: +128,000 jobs previous: +99,000 jobs

First day of vacation, 32°C and a 30km walk towards Stuttgart. I was able to find over 35 stock companies along the route.

Highlight, $BTC (+0.82%) Bitcoin logo on the wheel arch of the Jeep.

In addition to the car brands, $MBG (-1.31%)
$DTG (-1.07%)
$VOW (-0.15%)
$BMW (-0.12%)
$VOLV B (-0.41%)
$TSLA (-4.32%)
$1211 (+2.45%)
$P911 (+0.35%)
$F (-0.67%)
$8058 (+0.45%) I was able to discover numerous other companies that were new to me.

New for me was $6971 (+0.59%) Kyocera, a manufacturer of electronic devices from Japan and $WLK (-0.94%) Westlake Chemical from the USA.

From Germany there were also $SIX2 (-0.48%) Sixt $DTE (+0.67%) Telekom $TUI1 (-1.21%) Tui $AGCO (-2.38%) (Fendt) $256940 Eberspächer (supplier to the automotive industry) $SIE (-0.45%) Siemens $EBK (+1.26%) ENBW $DHL (+0.55%) Post and $ALV (-0.14%) in the process.

Other companies:

$CAT (-2.26%) Caterpillar $HEIA (+0.74%) Heineken $HOG (-0.68%) Harley Davidson $PM (+1.84%) Philip Morris $NKE (-0.48%) Nike $AAPL (+0.26%) Apple $005930 Samsung $UPS (+0.29%) UPS $SHEL (-1.69%) Shell $V (-0.16%) Visa $MA (-0.3%) Mastercard $KER (+1.01%) Kering

$KO (+2.3%) Coca-Cola $QSR (-0.13%) Restaurant Brands (Burger King)

$O (+1.37%) Reality Income (leased to Decathlon)

Would you have recognized everything? It's interesting what you discover when you consciously look around.

Out of interest, please link if you post something similar 🫡 or use the #aktienmarsch