The military escalation between the USA, Israel and Iran is causing strong market movements worldwide. Investors are shifting out of cyclical sectors and into security, energy and defense.

_________________________

Bitcoin $BTC (-1.46%) shows surprising stability

• 📈 In the meantime +8,1 %
• 💰 Just over 70,000 dollars
• Stabilization at around 69,000 dollars

Despite geopolitical risks, Bitcoin is apparently being used as a liquidity parking lot in the short term. At the same time, volatility remains high - further escalations could trigger new spikes.

_________________________

🛢 Oil prices up significantly

• Brent: + just under 6 %
• WTI: + a good 5 %
• In the meantime even +13 %

According to the report, the USA is currently no release from the strategic oil reserve. The market is still considered to be supplied, but the situation remains tense.

_________________________

🏦 Banks under pressure

The European banking index loses around 3,5 % - sharpest decline since April 2025.

Particularly affected:

• HSBC - $HSBA (+0.07%)
• Barclays - $BARC (+0.39%)
• Standard Chartered - $STAN (-0.54%)
• Deutsche Bank - $DBK (-0.85%)
• BNP Paribas - $BNP (+0.15%)
• BBVA - $BBVA (+0.3%)
• Commerzbank - $CBK (-1.36%)

In the USA also weaker until the US opening:

• Bank of America - $BAC (-0.35%)
• Citigroup - $C (-0.56%)

Reason: Strong Middle East business of many institutions and general risk aversion of investors.

_________________________

✈️ Travel industry collapses

High oil prices and uncertainty weigh heavily on tourism stocks:

• TUI - $TUI1 (-1.07%) (-11 %)
• Lufthansa - $LHA (+1.01%) (-11 %)

Flights to the region are canceled, travel offers suspended. Investors fear rising costs and falling booking figures.

_________________________

💎 Luxury stocks clearly in the red

The European luxury index loses almost 4 %.

Strongly affected:

• Richemont - $CFR (-1.09%)
• Swatch - $UHR (-0.38%)
• LVMH - $MC (-1.96%)
• Hermès - $RMS (-1.68%)
• Kering - $KER (-2.39%)
• Brunello Cucinelli - $BC (-0.35%)
• Moncler - $MONC (-1.27%)
• Ferragamo - $SFER (-1.13%)

Background:

Luxury is heavily dependent on global travel. Capital flows out of cyclical stocks.

_________________________

🛡 Defense stocks as clear winners

Geopolitical tensions drive up defense stocks:

• BAE Systems - $BA. (-0.67%)
• Lockheed Martin - $LMT (-0.38%)
• RTX - $RTX (-0.09%)
• Kratos - $KTOS (-0.54%)
• Hensoldt - $HAG (-2.57%)
• Leonardo - $LDO (-2.14%)
• Renk - $R3NK (-1.66%)
• Rheinmetall - $RHM (-2.76%)

Partial price increases of 3-6 %.

The focus is particularly on missile defense systems and possible increases in defense budgets.

_________________________

🚢 Shipping companies benefit

Transport values increase due to detour (avoidance of Hormuz, Suez Canal & Bab al-Mandab):

• Maersk - $MAERSK A (+2.08%)
• Hapag-Lloyd - $HLAG (+3.75%)
• Torm - $TRMD A (-4.13%)
• Frontline - $FRO (-1.82%)
• Hoegh Autoliners $HAUTO (+3.01%)

Reason: Shortage of transport capacity and speculation on rising freight rates.

_________________________

🥇 Gold in demand

• Gold price: +2,5 %

Profiteers in mining stocks:

• Evolution Mining - $EVN (+3.85%)
• Northern Star - $NST (+0.02%)

The sector has been showing relative strength for several days.

$4GLD (-0.04%)
$GOLD
$GOLD (-1.46%)

_________________________

📊 Market logic clearly recognizable

Winner:

🛡 Armaments

🚢 Shipping companies

🥇 Gold

₿ Bitcoin (short-term)

Losers:

🏦 Banks

✈️ Travel

💎 Luxury

_________________________

🔎 Conclusion

The market reaction follows the classic pattern of geopolitical crises:

• Risk is reduced
• Capital seeks security
• Energy prices rise
• Defense stocks benefit

The decisive factor remains whether the situation eases diplomatically - or escalates further.

_________________________

Source:

Reuters: Anleger greifen bei Bitcoin als "Fluchtvehikel" zu (Via TradingView)

Short or long is the question.

Consider tomorrow $CCL (-1.22%) or $TUI1 (-1.07%) to go short.

Long would be silver or one of the numerous oil companies...

Has anyone else had the same thoughts or is everything already priced in?

Derivatives were more the money destroying numbers for me now... 🙈😅

I have been able to acquire a bit of stock market intuition in two years of small investors, for example the obligatory setback of Tui today after the expected figures, after the last few days of another steep rise. Of course, this does not slow down the long-term "upward trajectory". But for Tui it has been as sure as the Amen in church for a year now.

As a buy-and-hold investor in Tui, I sold around 80% of my holdings on Friday and yesterday in two batches at EUR 9.29 and EUR 9.45 respectively and then followed up today with two previously placed market orders at EUR 9.09 and EUR 8.95.

As we all know, every little helps.

I haven't quite understood "sell on good news" yet or what is supposed to be rational about it - better "sell the day before expected good news" 😁

$TUI1 (-1.07%)

The travel group closes the financial year with strong sales and profit growth, reduces debt and announces the first dividend payment since the pandemic.

After years of crisis, TUI presents a historic signal: for the first time since the pandemic, shareholders are to receive a dividend again. The travel group closed the past financial year with a strong jump in profits and is holding out the prospect of a distribution of 0.10 euros per share for February 2026.

The most important facts:

- Adjusted EBIT climbs by 12.6 percent to 1.46 billion euros

- Turnover reaches record level of 24.2 billion euros

- Net debt reduced by 20 percent to 1.3 billion euros

- Government aid repaid in full

Recovery exceeds expectations

The figures for the 2025 financial year (reporting date September 30) clearly exceed forecasts. While turnover increased by 4.4% to 24.2 billion euros, profitability developed disproportionately. The operating result rose to 1.46 billion euros - an increase of over 12%.

The main drivers of this development were the hotel and cruise segments under the "Holiday Experiences" umbrella. The cruise segment in particular recorded strong demand and noticeably improved margins. The Hanover-based company is thus demonstrating that the operational turnaround has not only been announced, but has actually been achieved.

Balance sheet significantly strengthened

Parallel to the improvement in earnings, TUI has massively reduced its debt. Net debt fell by around 20 percent to 1.3 billion euros. The ratio of net debt to underlying EBIT is now 0.6 - close to the medium-term target of less than 1.0. CFO Mathias Kiep describes this as a milestone.

The repayment of government coronavirus aid has been completed. The Group is now standing on its own two feet again and can realign its strategy.

Outlook confirms course

For the current financial year 2026, TUI expects revenue growth of 2 to 4 percent. Underlying EBIT is expected to increase by 7 to 10 percent. The booking situation for winter and summer supports this forecast. Analysts, including Deutsche Bank, confirm buy recommendations with price targets in the range of 11.00 euros.

The announced dividend policy envisages distributing 10 to 20 percent of adjusted earnings in future. With the payment of 0.10 euros planned for February, TUI is returning to financial normality. After crisis mode and restructuring, the Group is now delivering the promised results.

https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/tui-aktie-dividende-zurueck-850580

$TUI1 (-1.07%)

I have (unfortunately) been invested in $TUI1 (-1.07%) and have also taken advantage of the favorable share offers in recent years (from around € 1500 there is still € 400 left). Unfortunately, I didn't have much experience yet and simply bet that the post-COVID vacation mood would simply stabilize the company. I hadn't expected such a sell-off at the time.

How do you see the development of the last few months? Is it worth buying in to lower the entry price and take the announced dividend?

LG

Frodo

Unfortunately I didn't quite reach my target zone, but I'm still quite satisfied

A bit of Tui trading again. Fifth Tui trade this year. Target zone is somewhere between 8.60€-9€

#momentumstrategie

As promised, I have listed the monthly performance of the reported stocks.

I hope it will inspire you to find new companies.

And a little added value.

1 to 10

$ONDS (+0.22%) 172,70 %. $IREN (-1.08%) 79 %

$NB (-0.29%) 67,48 %. $LMND (+7.11%) 37,24 %

$BMNR (-2.42%) 28,85 %. $UUUU (-0.97%) 24,70 %

$NBIS (+0%) 23,64 %. $GILT (+0.35%) 22,64 %

$UNH (-0.29%) 20,74 % $VLA (+0.35%) 19,61 %.

$ETH (-1.97%) 19,05 %

10 to 20

$APP (-0.95%) 18,69 %. $RDDT (-0.02%) 18,41 %

$MP (-0.19%) 13,81 %. $HOT (+0.28%) 13,37 %.

$9868 (-0.92%) 13,18 %. $XPEV 12,87 %

$LOTB (+0.49%) 12,78 %. $CWCO (+6.34%) 11,76 %

$TUI1 (-1.07%) 9,41 %. $AHT 7,66 %

Remainder

$PRY (-1.05%) 7,47 %. $MU (-0.15%) 6,82 %

$AAPL (-0.38%) 6,87 %

$TUI1 (-1.07%)

TUI increased its revenue and earnings more strongly than expected in the third quarter of the financial year 2024/25.

The heatwaves in the Mediterranean and the conflict in the Middle East are slowing down the travel group's summer business $TUI1 (-1.07%) somewhat, however. While the Group's own hotels and cruise ships announced record results, bookings for the summer season in the tour operator business are two percent lower than in the previous year, as TUI announced in Hanover on Wednesday. In Germany, the shortfall was even five percent, explained CEO Sebastian Ebel in a video conference with journalists. Nevertheless, the manager had slightly raised his profit forecast on Tuesday.

The Group did not necessarily have to take "the last customer" with it, from whom it then earned nothing, said Ebel. By the beginning of August, TUI had sold a total of 86 percent of the package tours offered for the summer. Prices were on average three percent higher than in the previous year, and the tour operator division brought in more than half of the guests for the Group's own hotel brands such as Riu, TUI Blue and Robinson Club.

The booking figures and other details on the third quarter were initially well received on the stock market on Wednesday: The TUI share gained via XETRA shortly after the start of trading and was thus at times one of the strongest stocks in the MDAX, the index of medium-sized stocks. However, the mood then changed and the TUI share temporarily lost 0.99 percent to 7.82 euros.

Meanwhile, TUI is struggling with the fact that many customers are booking their trips quite late and are also looking at the weather situation and the development of conflicts such as in the Gaza Strip. The tour operator is also trying to counteract this with discount vouchers. On the other hand, the recent heatwaves could lead to more customers opting for trips in September or October, said Ebel.

In the third financial quarter to the end of June, TUI counted 5.9 million guests, slightly fewer than in the same period in 2019, the year before the coronavirus pandemic. The figure was 6 million, according to a spokeswoman.

Meanwhile, TUI achieved a turnover of 6.2 billion euros this time, seven percent more than a year earlier. Operating profit adjusted for special items (underlying EBIT) rose by 38 per cent to just under 321 million euros and reached its highest level since the merger of the Group with its former tour operator subsidiary TUI Travel in 2014. A surplus of 183 million euros was attributable to shareholders after only 52 million in the same period last year.

For the current financial year until the end of September, Ebel now only expects currency-adjusted sales growth of 5 percent, having previously forecast up to 10 percent. However, adjusted operating profit is expected to grow by 9 to 11 percent. The Management Board had previously targeted 7 to 10 percent. The improved performance will be driven above all by the Group's own hotels and the 17 cruise ships operated by TUI Cruises, Hapag-Lloyd Cruises and Marella Cruises.

Meanwhile, TUI's top management is continuing to work on putting the Group back on a better financial footing following its rescue by the state during the coronavirus crisis. By the end of June, debt had fallen by 0.2 billion to 1.9 billion euros, and CFO Mathias Kiep intends to use the 250 million euros from a recently placed bond to take ownership of previously leased aircraft.

Until now, the aircraft in the TUI fleet have all been leased. The takeover will give the Group more freedom in deciding when to strengthen its fleet or get rid of older aircraft. "You buy aircraft when the euro is strong and sell them when the euro is weak," added CEO Ebel. This results in "considerable earnings potential".

Ebel was now also more optimistic that the crisis-ridden US aircraft manufacturer Boeing will finally deliver the promised new aircraft for TUI in the fall and next spring after severe delays. The manufacturer had recently seen a significant increase in deliveries.

The problems are causing problems for airlines all over the world, especially as the world's largest aircraft manufacturer Airbus from Europe is fully booked into the next decade in the aircraft segment with the highest sales - medium-haul jets.

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/urlaubserlebnisse-boomen-tui-aktie-dreht-dennoch-ins-minus-tui-uebertrifft-mit-umsatz-und-ergebnisplus-die-erwartungen-14722347

#momentum Strategy week 33

Hello my dears,

stocks mentioned so far were

$MP (-0.19%)
$NBIS (+0%)
$LMND (+7.11%)
$AAPL (-0.38%)
$BMNR (-2.42%)

$ELF (-0.03%)
$9868 (-0.92%)
$XPEV (-0.29%)
$UCG (-1.14%)
$PRY (-1.05%)

$G1A (-0.63%)
$LOTB (+0.49%) +10% $UFPT (-0.31%) +9,34%. $AHT 7,15%. $UNH (-0.29%) 20,26%

$ETH (-1.97%)
$NB (-0.29%)
$VLA (+0.35%)

$HOT (+0.28%) +13%. $CWCO (+6.34%) +14%

$ALV (-0.07%) +6,4 %. $MAIN (+0.31%) +5,3%. $TUI1 (-1.07%) +18,3%

$RDDT (-0.41%) . $GUBRA (+1.03%)
$ONDS (+0.22%)
$IREN (-1.08%)

My shares would be

$MU (-0.15%) +17%. $GILT (+0.35%) +20%. $APP (-0.95%) +17%

The shares are for identification purposes only.

And does not constitute a buy recommendation.

An analysis and evaluation of the multiples should definitely be carried out here.

You are also welcome to share your results with us.

I look forward to hearing more about your performers.