Posts
119This week, we have once again included some titles in our simulation game. At the suggestion of @serkeftin to prepare for Donald Trump's tariff announcements and have reduced our call money position and added short warrants with a 4 - 5 leverage for $VOW (-10.16%) , $MBG (-5.9%) , $P911 (-4.36%) , $BMW (-5.51%) . We are hoping for good returns with a higher risk in a short period of one week.
Do you have any comments or suggestions for the coming weeks?
- 14 positive surprises
- Three negative surprises
- Dividend increases
- Dividend decreases
- Overview of all DAX stocks
Link:
$ALV (-8.43%)
$MUV2 (-6.68%)
$RHM (-10.98%)
$MBG (-5.9%)
$SAP (-5.31%)
$BMW (-5.51%)
$AIR (-8.31%)
$VOW (-3.61%)
$DBK (-10%)
$CBK (-6.01%)
$SIE (-7.45%)
$P911 (-4.36%)
$DTE (-4.46%)
$IFX (-8.33%)
Decline at Tesla: Sales figures in Europe fall by almost half
Tesla can currently only dream of the once flourishing sales figures for electric vehicles in Europe. $TSLA (-9.97%) can only dream of at the moment. Instead, they are experiencing a dramatic decline of almost 50 percent. In the first two months of 2025, the electric car manufacturer sold just 19,046 vehicles, which corresponds to a meagre market share of 1.1 percent. This is a sharp contrast to the positive trends in the e-car market, because while Tesla is struggling, other manufacturers are experiencing growth.
In Germany, the decline is particularly clear: Tesla's new registrations fell by an impressive 76 percent in February compared to the previous year. In January, there was already a decline of 59 percent. The Tesla factory in Brandenburg does not seem to offer enough incentive to convince the German market. The company is also suffering from damage to its image, which is being exacerbated by Elon Musk's controversial role in US politics. Many German companies are withdrawing from Tesla as a provider of company vehicles, and some drivers are showing their distance from Musk with stickers on their cars.
In contrast, other e-vehicles are showing that things can be done differently: their sales figures rose by 28.4 percent in February. Hybrid vehicles dominate with 35.2 percent of new registrations, followed by petrol cars (29.1 percent) and battery electric vehicles (15.2 percent).
Porsche SE lowers dividend and insists on savings program at VW and Porsche
Porsche SE $P911 (-4.36%)the main shareholder of Volkswagen $VOW (-3.61%) and Porsche, has cut its dividend. This is due to lower inflows from its main investments, which is forcing those responsible to call for savings programs. A dividend of just 1.91 euros per preference share will be paid out for the past financial year, compared to 2.56 euros in the previous year. The decline is due to an expected lower dividend inflow from Volkswagen, which is putting pressure on Porsche SE's financial position.
In addition, Porsche SE had to recognize high impairment losses on its investments in VW and Porsche, which led to a consolidated accounting loss of 20 billion euros. Net debt is estimated at between 4.9 and 5.4 billion euros for 2025. CEO Hans Dieter Pötsch is aiming for earnings after tax of between 2.4 and 4.4 billion euros in 2025.
VW and Porsche have invested heavily in cost-cutting programs in response to the challenges in the automotive industry. Pötsch emphasizes the "consistent implementation" of these measures. However, rumors of possible sales of VW shares were firmly denied by Porsche SE. The holding company plans to diversify in the long term and now manages 18 companies in its portfolio.
Sources:
ASML - One of my favorite European stocks and now finally back in the portfolio ❤️
is still on my "Europe wish list":
Hermés $RMS (-4.6%) (currently not yet in the portfolio)
LVMH $MC (-4.14%)
Rheinmetall $RHM (-10.98%)
Ferrari $RACE (-3.06%)
Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-6.66%)
and under €40 the Porsche $P911 (-4.36%) share (also not yet in the portfolio)
I could not avoid the comparison between these two stocks, both work in the same sector and more or less the same category of Luxury in a way, although certain Porsche models are much more affordable than the cheaper Ferrari ones, but cases apart:
Ferrari
$RACE (-3.06%)
Porsche
$P911 (-4.36%)
I personally am not very attracted to the automotive sector for investment, a lot of uncertainty, regulation and competition in recent years, very few companies have been able to beat the market 📈
Maybe this valuation is just a long term expectation thing, or maybe it is Ferrari that is overvalued and Porsche is exactly where it should be or maybe it is a good value investment opportunity in Porsche....
For my part I am going for European Stocks to diversify my exposure to the US market and in turn to the dollar, most companies are either very expensive in fundamental and technical valuation (historical highs) or include a lot of risk (lots of debt, haven't reported profits yet) or are so cheap that beating the market seems mission impossible (very low PE sectors like automotive) 🫠
Anyway we will have to do a little more research, maybe it is not a bad idea to invest in. $P911 (-4.36%)? 🤔
Technical analysis
Shares of Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc are in a downtrend. According to TradingView, the technical rating for the stock currently indicates a Sell recommendation. Investtech reports that the stock has broken the lower line of a downtrend channel to the downside, indicating a possible further decline in the share price. These technical indicators point to continued weakness in the share price.
Fundamental analysis
The fundamentals of Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc point to challenges. According to finanzen.net, the company's market capitalization is approximately $0.95 billion, with an expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.88 for 2027. Long-term growth is estimated at +51.69%, however, the number of analysts following the company is small, which may affect the reliability of these forecasts. In addition, the stock has a negative relative 4-week performance of -32.17%, indicating an underperformance versus the market.
Current developments
Aston Martin is facing financial challenges. The new CEO, Adrian Hallmark, has announced plans to make the company profitable by 2025, with a focus on cost savings and improved operational discipline. However, the company is still struggling with significant losses and a debt level of 1.16 billion pounds. In addition, delivery delays and weakening demand in China have led to reduced sales and profit expectations.
Conclusion
Both technical and fundamental analysis suggest that Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc is currently facing significant challenges. Potential investors should carefully consider these factors and make their investment decisions accordingly.
What do you think of the company I got in at the price, not with a large position, but still 100 shares 😉
$AML (-10.76%)
$P911 (-4.36%)
$MBG (-5.9%)
$RACE (-3.06%)
#luxus
As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming week.
Also as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/cpIdQFYiLeY?si=gaKXoxc1Q7c_VbNC
Sunday:
Due to industrial overcapacity, deflation is depressing prices in China. Prices there fell by an average of 0.7% compared to the same month last year. The reason for the decline was probably a high basis for comparison from the previous year, as well as government programs to boost consumption.
Monday:
$HFG (-6.83%) Hellofresh shocks the markets with a sales warning, down more than 10%. Analysts at JP Morgan continue to see the price target at 15 euros. This is because EBITDA is expected to rise again. Hellofresh is dispensing with expensive marketing campaigns, which hurts sales but may increase profits.
Tuesday:
$VOW3 (-4.37%) Volkswagen is struggling with a drop in sales and profits. Overall, 2.3% fewer vehicles were sold. Sales for 2024 increased minimally by one percent to 324.7 billion euros. Profit fell from 17.8 to 12.3 billion euros.
Wednesday:
$P911 (-4.36%) Porsche earns significantly less. Similar to VW, profits are down by around 30%. The dividend is to remain stable. Turnover is also expected to stagnate in 2025.
Not only is Rheinmetall's share price rising $RHM (-10.98%) Rheinmetall is rising, sales are also increasing significantly. Rheinmetall could grow by 34% in 2024. Growth of 25-30% is also expected for 2025. Rheinmetall achieved sales of just under 10 billion euros in 2024. The order backlog grew to 55 billion euros. The dividend is set to rise from 5.70 to 8.10 euros per share.
$TMV (-2.63%) Teamviewer is celebrating its 20th anniversary, which means the tech company from Göppingen has been around longer than the average lifespan of a German company (around 12 years). Click here for a summary of the company's history:
US inflation data comes in lower than expected, market bounces back. Compared to the same month last year, prices rose by 2.8%. An increase of 2.9% was expected.
Thursday:
The fashion group $BOSS (-2.48%) Hugo Boss from Metzingen wants to increase its dividend to 1.40 euros per share. At 4.31 billion euros, turnover was three percent above the previous year's figure and higher than ever before. Declining sales in China were a particular burden on the Group. Profit therefore fell by 17% to 217 million euros. In the coming year, turnover is expected to stagnate, but profitability is set to increase.
Companies such as $DTG (-5.57%) Daimler Truck fell significantly after Donald Trump announced that he would relax the emissions regulations for trucks. Daimler in particular has invested billions of dollars in recent years to make its trucks environmentally friendly.
With the inflation rate in the USA already below expectations, producer prices are also below expectations. This is particularly interesting, as producer prices are a leading indicator for inflation in the future.
https://www.ariva.de/amp/usa-erzeugerpreise-steigen-weniger-als-erwartet-11567717
Friday:
As with $VOW3 (-4.37%) VW, BMW's profits are also on the decline. BMW achieved a profit of 7.7 billion euros, 37% less than a year ago. Turnover fell by 8.2% to 142 billion euros. China is the main problem for BMW.
These are the most important dates for the coming week:
Wednesday: 04:00 Interest rate decision (Japan)
Wednesday: 19:00 Interest rate decision (USA)
Thursday: 12:00 Interest rate decision (BoE)
Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇
Mercedes-Benz appoints new head of North America
Mercedes-Benz $MBG (-5.9%) has brought a new captain on board for its North American journey. Jason Hoff will now be at the helm, steering the fortunes of the company in a turbulent climate. It is a decisive step, as the automotive industry is facing numerous challenges. There are also exciting developments at Volkswagen. CEO Oliver Blume will benefit from an increase in his remuneration, which will rise by 6.6 percent to an impressive 10.35 million euros in 2024. This is despite the members of the Board of Management forgoing 5 percent of their salary, which will still earn Blume 65,000 euros. These measures are part of a comprehensive savings program that will be continued in the coming years and are intended to strengthen the company's position.
Northvolt insolvency shakes Scania and Porsche
In the USA and beyond, Northvolt's insolvency has had the effect of an earthquake and has shaken up the automotive industry, especially the giants Scania and Porsche. Although the subsidiaries in Germany and North America are not directly affected by this insolvency, the situation in Skellefteå, Northvolt's headquarters, remains tense. The mayor and the head of administration are asking the Swedish government for support, as the city and the province cannot cope with the crisis on their own. The employees are currently being supported by a state wage guarantee, but uncertainty hangs over the municipality, particularly with regard to the residence permits of many foreign employees who are hoping for a quick solution.
Porsche AG shares fall sharply
Porsche AG $P911 (-4.36%) is facing drastic pressure as a decline in profits has dampened sentiment and the stock has also been affected. CEO Breckner has commented on the company's long-term goals and emphasized that the company is aiming for a return on sales of over 20 percent. However, the tense market situation will make a medium-term target of 15 to 17 percent necessary, which represents an adjustment of previous expectations. This year, around 800 million euros will be invested in adapting the model range and expanding the battery business. The operating margin is expected to be between 10 and 12 percent, while turnover is estimated at between 39 and 40 billion euros.
Sources:
Porsche suffers from quarterly figures
The Porsche share $P911 (-4.36%) suffered a severe setback following the publication of the latest quarterly figures. While the general market sentiment this week was positive and the DAX was stable going into the evening, Porsche was hit hard by the disappointing figures. Investors had hoped for more and the reaction to the figures was correspondingly strong. In addition to Porsche, investors also focused on companies such as Siemens Energy, NEL and Plug Power. These companies are also struggling with their own challenges. On the other hand, however, there are also rays of hope: Rheinmetall increased its dividend after a jump in profits, which is creating a positive mood among investors. PUMA, on the other hand, is facing a decline in profits, which is unsettling investors and raising questions about future developments.
JPMorgan Chase investors enjoy high profits
In the USA, investors who invested in JPMorgan Chase three years ago $JPM (-7.37%) three years ago can look forward to an impressive increase in value. At the time of investment, the share price stood at USD 128.89. With an investment of USD 10,000, investors would have 77,586 shares in their portfolio today. These shares would be worth around USD 17,777.95 on March 11, 2025, which corresponds to a remarkable increase of 77.78 percent. This shows how dynamic the financial markets can be and how important it is to choose the right time to invest. The current market valuation of JPMorgan Chase is an impressive USD 649.13 billion. However, it is important to note that this calculation does not take into account stock splits and dividend payments, which could still affect the actual result.
Sources:
https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/cfd/porsche-hohe-kursverluste-nach-quartalszahlen-14312065
