Porsche (Vz.)

$P911 (+0.12%) VW and Porsche are dying before our eyes.

Earnings summary, 13.11. 👇🏼

Allianz Q3 24 Earnings: $ALV (+0.5%)

- Oper Profit EU3.94B (est EU3.76B)

- Rev EU42.8B, With Records of 14% Op Profit Growth (Q/Q)

- Sees FY Oper Profit In In Upper Half Of EU13.*B -EU15.8B

Porsche SE
$P911 (+0.12%) reports a drop in profit to 2.5 billion euros after tax in the first nine months, compared with 3.8 billion euros in the previous year, and confirms its annual forecasts for profit and net debt. Despite the challenges in the automotive industry, the holding company is attempting to further diversify its investments and has reduced its net debt to 5.1 billion euros.

Renk
$DE000RENK730 (+0.57%) increased sales by over 19 percent to 778 million euros in the first nine months, driven by demand in the maintenance business and Vehicle Mobility Solutions. Despite an 8.1 percent increase in adjusted EBIT, the margin falls and net profit drops to EUR 7 million due to higher taxes, while the annual targets are confirmed.

The RTL Group $RTLL (+0.31%) expects consolidated revenues to increase to EUR 6.3 billion in 2024, which is below previous expectations, and anticipates an EBIT at the lower end of the range of EUR 700 to 800 million. Revenue in the third quarter fell by 5.5% to €1.3 billion, while the Group's streaming services recorded 6.5 million subscribers.

Auto1
$AG1 (+0.39%) raises its profit forecast for 2024 to between 72 and 84 million euros after the third quarter exceeded expectations with an operating profit of 34.3 million euros. Vehicle sales increased by 26 percent year-on-year to 176,632 units, while turnover grew by 24 percent to 1.6 billion euros.

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen
$HBGRY achieved a profit of 7 million euros in the second quarter, following a loss in the first quarter. Sales fall by just under seven percent to 512 million euros, while adjusted EBITDA falls to 40 million euros; the annual targets are confirmed.

TAG Immobilien
$TEG (+0.1%) generates a profit of 30 million euros in the first nine months, after a loss of just under 275 million euros in the previous year, and expects a slightly positive operating profit trend for 2024. For the year as a whole, the real estate group expects an operating profit at the upper end of the forecast of EUR 170 to 174 million and further valuation gains in Poland for 2025.

The Deutsche Pfandbriefbank
$PBB (-0.69%) recorded a net profit of 37 million euros in the third quarter, almost five times as much as in the previous year, thanks to lower loan loss provisions. Despite a six percent decline in income, the bank remains behind the previous year with new business of 2.5 billion euros, but sees itself on course for higher profits by 2027.

Ströer
$SAX (+0.06%) recorded an increase in revenue of 2.5% to just under EUR 496 million in the third quarter, while the adjusted operating result rose by 6.1% to almost EUR 157 million. Co-CEO Christian Schmalzl expects high single-digit growth in the out-of-home advertising business for the year as a whole.

Porsche
$P911 (+0.12%) receives authorization to acquire a majority stake in Varta's
$VAR1 (+0.05%) subsidiary V4Drive Battery which produces lithium-ion cells for electric cars, including the Porsche 911 Carrera GTS.

The Federal Cartel Office has no competition concerns about this takeover, and Porsche will not take control of Varta but will remain a minority shareholder. Varta has been facing financial challenges for some time and is aiming to sell the existing shareholders out of the company, supported by the German Corporate Stabilization and Restructuring Act (StaRUG). -Handelsblatt

Photo: Stefan Puchner

Hello everyone

I'm also making my first post 😄.

I hope you are all doing well.

My current buy candidates are:

$ASML (-0.43%)

$SSUN Samsung stock I never find 😅

$NESN (+0.1%)

$P911 (+0.12%)

I still follow some of them:

$OR (+0.04%) under 305€

$LIN (-0.21%) under 385€

$MCD (+0.07%) under 355$

$CVX (-0.03%) under 135$

$BAS (+0.54%) under 42.50€

What do you think?

What are your buy candidates?

Greetings from Switzerland.

28.10.2024

Porsche AG: "The ban on combustion engines must fall" + E. coli bacteria at McDonalds: number of cases on the rise + Focus on advertising market, AI and split-up at Google parent Alphabet + Meta with solid advertising business + Boeing apparently planning capital increase

The quarterly figures presented after the Xetra close were lean as expected, but the outlook for the year as a whole was confirmed. Between the lines Porsche $P911 (+0.12%) criticized the upcoming tightening of EU CO₂ emissions regulations. In the subsequent conference call, the sports car manufacturer then dropped a bombshell. Is a roll back towards the combustion engine coming?

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/porsche-ag-das-verbrenner-verbot-muss-fallen-20368996.html

The number of confirmed cases of illness with coli bacteria in the USA, which according to the US authorities can be traced back to the consumption of a certain McDonald's-burger $MCD (+0.07%) has risen to 75. According to the US health authority CDC, 42 of those infected stated that they had previously eaten at the McDonald's fast food chain. At least 22 of them had to be treated in hospital. Two people developed hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) as a result of the infection, which can lead to acute kidney failure and can be fatal, the CDC said. US authorities are investigating the outbreak after people in 13 states fell ill between September 27 and October 10 after being infected with E. coli bacteria. One of the illnesses was fatal. According to initial investigation results, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) attributes the outbreak to sliced onions in McDonald's Quarter Pounder Burger, the American equivalent of the Hamburger Royal. However, the authorities are not ruling out the possibility that the burger patty itself could also be the cause.

The growth of the online advertising market, the most important source of revenue for Google $GOOGL (+0.92%)has recently slowed down somewhat. But that is complaining at a high level. The Group is nevertheless likely to have grown significantly in the third quarter and posted a higher profit. It is more preoccupied with other issues anyway. Google has to make sure it keeps up in the race for artificial intelligence. And it has to deal with the US anti-trust authorities. In the course of the 3Q reporting, the possible split-up of Alphabet will certainly also be discussed. Quarterly figures on Tuesday at 21:05.

Like Google Meta $META (+0.08%) is largely dependent on online ads in its social networks. The online advertising market is likely to have been solid, with Meta Platforms once again showing significant growth. Analysts expect profit growth of 19 percent and an 18 percent increase in sales compared to the previous year. Investors are also interested in the AI offerings of the parent company of Facebook, Whatsapp and Instagram and how it can monetize them. Quarterly figures on Wednesday at 21:05.

The ailing US aircraft manufacturer Boeing $BA (+0.43%) is on the verge of a massive capital increase, according to insiders. The cash injection of over 15 billion dollars (13.86 billion euros) is to be raised today through a mixture of share sales and convertible preference shares, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters news agency. This is intended to improve the company's financial situation, which has deteriorated as a result of the ongoing strike by around 30,000 employees at its US plants. Boeing initially declined to comment. However, the company had recently announced in regulatory documents that it could raise up to 25 billion dollars in stock and debt to bolster its ailing finances and protect its investment-grade rating. The Airbus rival is in deep crisis after a cabin door came loose during a flight in early January. Since then, the company has been struggling with stricter regulatory controls, production restrictions and dwindling customer confidence. In the first quarter of 2024, Boeing recorded a loss of around six billion dollars. In order to secure liquidity, the Group recently concluded a loan agreement worth ten billion dollars with leading banks. Boeing also announced the reduction of 17,000 jobs, which corresponds to around ten percent of the global workforce. However, the rating agencies S&P, Moody's and Fitch are threatening to downgrade the company to junk status if Boeing takes on new debt without repaying existing liabilities.

Monday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

US: Trading hours from 14:30 - 21:00 (instead of 15:30 to 22:00, until Nov. 1)

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Blackstone USD 0.86

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

21:10 Ford quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Wacker Chemie | Royal Philips Electronic Quarterly figures

07:30 KPN quarterly figures

08:00 Traton quarterly figures

09:00 Traton Analyst Conference

16:00 Wacker Chemie Analyst Conference

Untimed: Bawag quarterly figures

Economic data

• 11:30 DE: Government Pk, Berlin
• 14:30 US: Stock market opens (instead of 15:30, until Nov. 1)
• 15:30 US: Dallas Fed Manufacturing 10/24
• 20:45 ESECB Vice President De Guindos, speech at Grupo Hotusa event
• 21:00 US: Stock markets close (instead of 10 p.m., by Nov. 1)
• No time specified: DE: Expiry of the peace obligation collective bargaining in the metal and electrical industry - warning strikes possible

Porsche Q3 2024 $P911 (+0.12%)

Financial performance

Porsche's financial results for the first nine months of 2024 show a year-on-year decline in the key performance indicators. Group sales decreased by 5.2% to a total of 28.6 billion euros, while the Group's operating profit fell by 26.7% to 4.0 billion euros. In addition, the return on sales fell by 420 basis points to 14.1%.

Balance sheet analysis

As at September 30, 2024, Porsche's equity increased by 685 million euros to 22.354 billion euros, which corresponds to growth of 3.2%. In contrast, non-current liabilities increased by 462 million euros, while current liabilities rose by 495 million euros, resulting in an overall increase in liabilities of 1.642 billion euros.

Profit and loss account

The income statement shows a decline in gross profit from 8.589 billion euros to 7.285 billion euros, mainly due to falling sales and rising distribution costs. Operating profit fell from 5.501 billion euros to 4.035 billion euros, which led to a decline in the operating return on sales from 18.3% to 14.1%.

Cash flow analysis

Cash flows from operating activities decreased from EUR 5.368 billion to EUR 4.156 billion, largely due to the lower operating profit and changes in working capital. Cash flows from investing activities were negative at EUR -3.243 billion, reflecting significant investments in intangible assets and property, plant and equipment.

Key figures and profitability

The return on sales in the Automotive segment fell from 18.8% to 14.6%, while the EBITDA margin fell from 25.5% to 23.0%. The net cash flow margin in the Automotive segment also fell from 12.2% to 4.8%.

Segment analysis

Operating profit in the Automotive segment fell by 27.9% to 3.8 billion euros, with a return on sales of 14.6%. The Financial Services segment recorded a slight decline in operating profit to 210 million euros, with a return on sales of 7.4%.

Competitive analysis

Porsche faces challenges in the Chinese market, with a focus on value-oriented sales amid weak demand in the luxury segment. The company is actively managing demand and supply in China and is struggling with reduced availability of spare parts.

Forecasts and management commentary

Porsche maintains its revenue forecast for 2024 and expects revenue of between 39 and 40 billion euros and a Group return on sales of 14 to 15%. Despite macroeconomic challenges and geopolitical tensions, the company is continuing to invest in innovation, digitalization and sustainability.

Risks and opportunities

Significant risks include supply chain disruptions, particularly in China, and high costs. On the other hand, opportunities arise from the transition to e-mobility and investments in new technologies to increase customer satisfaction.

Summary and strategic implications

Porsche's financial performance in 2024 reflects a challenging environment characterized by declining profitability and cash flow. The company is focused on strategic investments and addressing supply chain issues to maintain its market position. The outlook remains difficult, with a focus on innovation and sustainability as drivers for future growth. The strategic implications suggest that Porsche needs to strengthen its flexibility and resilience in the face of changing market dynamics and geopolitical uncertainties. Clearly not a buy for me, and for so many reasons that it's hard to list them here.

Positive statements

Equity growth: Porsche's equity increased by 685 million euros to 22.354 billion euros, representing growth of 3.2% and indicating a stronger financial position.

Investment in innovation: The company is investing extensively in innovation, digitalization and sustainability, which positions it well for future growth and adaptation to market changes.

Robust order book: Porsche has a robust order book and expects improved availability of new models, which supports the positive forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024.

Balanced global sales mix: Despite challenges, Porsche has maintained a more balanced global sales mix that can mitigate regional market fluctuations.

Commitment to drive diversity: Porsche remains true to its commitment to a combination of efficient combustion engines, hybrids and fully electric vehicles (BEVs) to meet different customer preferences and regulatory frameworks.

Negative statements

Decline in turnover: Group sales decreased by 5.2% to €28.6 billion, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum.

Reduced operating profit: Group operating profit fell by 26.7% to €4.0 billion, indicating pressure on profitability.

Lower cash flows from operating activities: Cash flows from operating activities fell significantly, affecting the company's ability to finance investments and operations.

Challenges in China: Porsche faces significant challenges in the Chinese market, with a focus on value-oriented sales in a weak luxury segment.

Rising distribution costs: Distribution costs increased, impacting the overall cost structure and reducing the operating margin.

21.10.2024

iPhone 16 gets off to a strong start: Apple registers 20% more sales in China + SAP is too valuable for the German stock exchange + DAX outlook: 20,000-point mark remains firmly in sight + 11 DATEs that will be important this week + Jefferies lowers Munich Re to 'Hold' - target 485 euros

Apple $AAPL (+0.18%) can score points in China with a successful launch of the new iPhone 16. According to a Bloomberg report based on data from Counterpoint Research, sales in the first three weeks after the market launch were 20 percent higher than the previous year's model, with the more expensive versions of the new iPhone doing particularly well. Sales of the Pro and Pro Max models increased by 44 percent. According to Counterpoint analyst Ivan Lam, the start of production of the iPhone 15 last year was still characterized by supply bottlenecks, which slowed down the initial sales figures. These problems have largely been overcome with the iPhone 16.

The software company SAP $SAP (+0.04%) was the first to reach the new DAX cap of 15 percent. What now? Over the past year, the value of the German software group SAP has risen sharply. The company is currently valued at 212 euros per share on the Dax. Twelve months ago it was less than 130 euros.

https://www.golem.de/news/dax-unternehmen-sap-ist-zu-wertvoll-fuer-die-deutsche-boerse-2410-189998.html

With an increase of around 0.4 percent to 19,657 points, the DAX $GDAXI went into the weekend last Friday. This means that the stock market barometer could launch another attack on the 20,000-point mark in the coming week. Investors can find out which topics could influence the price trend in the DAX outlook. Do you think the 20,000 points will fall?

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/maerkte-forex-zinsen/dax-ausblick-20000-punkte-marke-bleibt-fest-im-visier-20368521.html

The analyst firm Jefferies has Munich Re $MUV2 (+0.06%) from "buy" to "hold" and lowered its price target from 495 to 485 euros. In a study published on Monday, analyst Philip Kett mentioned that the reinsurer's share price had reached record highs despite Hurricane Milton. He reassessed his estimates and came to the conclusion that there was hardly any room for rising market expectations. His price target had already been exceeded.

11 DATES that will be important this week

1 China's central bank cuts key interest rates

The People's Bank of China is likely to ease its monetary policy further. Analysts expect it to lower its reference rates for 5-year and 1-year corporate loans to 3.65% (currently: 3.85%) and 3.15% (3.35%) respectively. This expectation is not only fueled by the announcement of comprehensive economic policy measures to stimulate growth, but also by statements made by central bank governor Pan Gongsheng. According to reports in the Chinese local media, he held out the prospect of a reduction of 20 to 25 basis points at an event.

>>> Monday, October 21, 2024; 3:00

2nd IMF hardly changes growth forecasts - focus on government debt

Economists and politicians are meeting in Washington for the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. The agenda initially includes the publication of the current World Economic Outlook (3.00 p.m.) and the Global Financial Stability Report (4.15 p.m.) on Monday, followed by the Fiscal Monitor on Tuesday (3.00 p.m.). The opening speech by IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva indicates that the IMF will primarily discuss the high and rising level of public debt and look for ways to strengthen economic growth in order to improve debt sustainability. There will also be no shortage of calls for austerity. The finance ministers and central bank governors of the G20 will meet on Thursday.

>>> Monday, October 21, 2024, 15:00

3. SAP $SAP (+0.04%)defies the weak economic environment

SAP appears to be unaffected by the weak economy. According to analysts' expectations, the Group seamlessly continued the growth of its cloud business in the third quarter. Even slight disruptive factors such as investigations in the USA and the departure of three board members have not thrown the Walldorf-based software giant off track. SAP will present its figures on Monday shortly after 22:00 after the close of the US stock exchange. An analysts' conference will take place at 23:00.

>>> Monday, October 21, 2024; 22:05

4. deutsche Börse $DB1 (+0.09%)remains on course for growth with Simcorp

Deutsche Börse should have remained on course for growth in the third quarter. The figures are likely to be characterized by the integration of Simcorp and a good development in the Trading & Clearing division. The exchange operator will probably confirm its targets for the year as a whole. Larger acquisitions are currently not an issue, not only because of the ongoing integration of Simcorp, but probably also due to the change in the Group's top management.

>>> Tuesday, October 22, 2024; 19:00

5th Deutsche Bank $DBK (+0.16%)with good investment banking - Postbank helps

The fact that Deutsche Bank is currently attracting less attention than a certain Frankfurt-based competitor is unlikely to be changed by the third quarter report. The bank will deliver solid figures and confirm its targets. Although the bank recently had to raise its forecast for risk provisioning, things are going well in the investment bank. CFO James von Moltke recently said that significant growth is expected, particularly in the M&A and issues business. The bank will also see a positive effect on earnings from the reversal of the Postbank provision, as it will not need the full EUR 1.3 billion for the settlement with the former Postbank shareholders. In this context, statements on new share buybacks should also be of interest.

>>> Wednesday, October 23, 2024; 7:00 a.m.

6 Beiersdorf $BEI (-0.06%)on the home straight after the summer quarter

After the first nine months, Beiersdorf should be on track for its full-year targets for both sales and EBIT margin. The summer quarter is likely to have benefited from strong demand for sun protection and the derma skin care brands. The innovation Epicelline and the launch of Eucerin Face in the USA should also be well received. On the other hand, further declines in sales for the luxury cosmetics brand La Prairie in China. Nevertheless, organic sales growth at Group level and in both the Consumer and Tesa segments is likely to have been in line with the target range - with Consumer tending towards the upper end and Tesa and the Group towards the lower end. Following a pull-forward effect in the second quarter, Tesa could deliver somewhat weaker results in the third quarter. With the second quarter figures, Beiersdorf had explained that the development in the US market and at La Prairie in the second half of the year would be decisive for the positioning in the target range.

>>> Thursday, October 24, 2024; 07:00

7. symrise $SY1 (+0.1%)could raise the forecast

Symrise is likely to have increased sales and margins in the third quarter. According to analysts, strong sales in both divisions and better pricing should have contributed to this. The focus is on the forecast. In August, CFO Olaf Klinger held out the prospect of a review after the end of the quarter and a possible increase - which is expected by the market. However, analysts at UBS also point out that the fragrance and flavor manufacturer usually gives conservative forecasts. Investors may also ask about the planned sale of the business with ingredients and flavor enhancers for feed for fish farming.

>>> Thursday, October 24, 2024; 07:30

9. Mercedes-Benz $MBG (+0.18%)burdened by weakness in China

Burdened by the weak market environment and increasing price pressure, Mercedes-Benz recently had to lower its outlook for this year twice within a short space of time. The reluctance to buy has hit the DAX-listed company particularly hard in China, where sales of particularly expensive and high-margin luxury cars have increasingly lost momentum. However, there are also positive aspects that analysts are emphasizing at the Stuttgart-based premium car manufacturer, such as its commitment to the dividend payout ratio and share buybacks. The management should emphasize this again when presenting the quarterly figures so that the mood does not change even more.

>>> Friday, October 25, 2024; 07:30

10th Ifo business climate index rises in October

Economists expect the Ifo Business Climate Index to have risen again in October for the first time since April - to 85.6 (September: 85.4) points. Nevertheless, the situation of the German economy is tricky. From a cyclical perspective, an Ifo increase would indicate an improvement. Energy prices are no longer weighing so heavily on the economy and the effects of high key interest rates are slowly easing. However, the structural problems in the automotive industry, which is so important for Germany, are likely to persist for some time to come, and the rest of the export-oriented industry will also have to adjust to the new geopolitical conditions for some time to come.

>>> Friday, 25.10.2024; 10:00

11. at Porsche $P911 (+0.12%)everything depends on the final quarter

The situation at Porsche has become increasingly gloomy in recent months. It was already foreseeable at the beginning of the year that the many model changes would entail high expenses and that the environment in China would be difficult. However, this was recently compounded by delivery problems, production interruptions and considerably tougher competition. When the figures for the third quarter are presented, analysts are only expecting a return of just over 11 percent - but Porsche is aiming for 14 to 15 percent for the year as a whole. The management's comments on the final quarter will therefore be the linchpin in terms of target achievement.

>>> Friday, October 25, 2024; 17:30

Monday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

CVS Health USD 0.67

Caterpillar 1.41 USD

Bank of New York Mellon USD 0.47

Husqvarna (B) SEK 2.00

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

03:00 Logitech quarterly figures

07:35 Forvia SE sales 3Q

18:30 Metro Trading Statement 4Q

22:05 SAP quarterly figures

23:00 SAP Analyst Conference

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Producer prices September FORECAST: -0.2% yoy/-1.0% yoy previously: +0.2% yoy/-0.8% yoy
• 16:00 US: Index of leading indicators September FORECAST: -0.3% yoy previous: -0.2% yoy
• 19:30 US: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks at Chippewa Falls Area Chamber of Commerce event
• 23:00 US: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid speaks at CFA Society Kansas City event

Moin,

what do you think about $P911 (+0.12%) ?

Are you saying smart investment?

15.10.2024

Pre-close calls at Porsche and VW + Carl Zeiss with new partnership + Share placement weighs on Deutsche Bank after the close + New quarterly figures start today + SHARES IN THE FOCUS: Freenet at high since 2018 and optimism ahead of quarterly figures

Porsche AG $P911 (+0.12%) on the other hand, lost 2.0 percent. A pre-close call by the car manufacturer did not go down well with investors. Also VW $VOW (-0.12%) also fell by 0.5 percent. The car manufacturer also organized a pre-close call on Monday. However, no details were known by the close of trading. In addition to weak sales in China, the value of shareholdings is also under scrutiny: In the previous week, analysts at Baader had reduced the valuation of the stake in NorthVolt, in which Volkswagen holds a 20 percent stake, from 10 billion euros to zero.

Carl Zeiss $AFX (+0.37%) is entering into a partnership with Hyundai Mobis to develop transparent displays in windscreens. Mass production is due to start in five years and could raise safety standards in vehicles

The shares of Deutsche Bank $DBK (+0.16%) came under pressure in after-hours trading on Monday. They recently lost around 1.2 percent to 16.15 euros on the Tradegate trading platform. As reported by the Bloomberg news agency, Deutsche Bank is planning to place 16 million of its own shares at a price of 16.01 euros. Such a share placement dilutes the shares of existing shareholders. The bank's shares rose by almost twelve percent last month.

The shares of Freenet $FNTN (-0.14%) rose to their highest level since March 2018 on Monday. The shares of the mobile and TV provider recently rose by 1.3% to €27.48, making them one of the strongest stocks in the MDax mid-cap index. They also broke away even more clearly from the 21-day line as an indicator of the short-term trend, which they had already left behind last week. In a study at the beginning of the week, Warburg analyst Simon Stippig takes an optimistic view of the upcoming figures for the third quarter. Above all, information on Freenet's medium-term ambitions could become a price driver, he wrote. The dividend yield with the potential for additional growth from the mobile provider's television business is attractive, he said.

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Vinci EUR 1.05

AbbVie USD 1.55

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

11:55 Unitedhealth quarterly figures

12:25 Johnson & Johnson quarterly figures

12:45 Bank of America quarterly figures

13:25 Goldman Sachs quarterly figures

14:00 Citigroup quarterly figures

22:05 United Airlines quarterly figures

23:30 Rio Tinto plc Operation Report 3Q

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Docmorris Trading Update 3Q | Ericsson Quarterly Figures | Sulzer Order Intake

17:45 LVMH quarterly figures

19:00 Telekom Austria quarterly figuresn

economic data

• 08:00 UK: Labor market data September Unemployment benefit recipients Unemployment rate 3 months (ILO) PROGNOSE: 4.1% PREVIOUS: 4.1%
• 11:00 EU: Industrial Production August Eurozone FORECAST: +1.6% yoy/-1.2% yoy previously: -0.3% yoy/-2.2% yoy
• 11:00 DE: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index October Forecast: 9.0 points previous: 3.6 points Economic situation Forecast: -84.3 points previous: -84.5 points
• 14:30 US: Empire State Manufacturing Index October FORECAST: 0.5 previous: 11.5

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/FGvcLLAZSYk?si=Xyx01rfa453zdtpG

Monday:

The order situation in German industry is developing poorly. Orders fell by 5.8% in August. Economists had expected a decline of only 2.0%. Experts see this as a further sign of crisis in German industry.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-deutsche-industrie-mit-auftragsminus-von-58-prozent/100076767.html

In order to ease the burden on the German pension system, the economic experts now have an unconventional proposal. Children aged 6 and over could be given 10 euros a month by the state to invest in a selected fund with a high proportion of equities.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/finanzen-wirtschaftsweise-kindern-geld-fuer-fonds-kauf-geben/100076917.html

Tuesday:

$MCD (+0.07%) McDonald's is suing the four largest beef suppliers in the USA. The company accuses them of price fixing and forming a cartel. The companies include $JBSS3 JBS, $TSN (-0.34%) Tyson Foods, Cargill and National Beef

From Tuesday to Wednesday, the HBO documentary on $BTC (+1.44%) Bitcoin. According to HBO, the secret of Satoshi Nakamoto will be revealed. Nakamoto is considered the creator of Bitcoin, but his identity is still unknown. Nakamoto probably owns 1.1 million Bitcoins, which corresponds to a value of around USD 60 billion. A revelation could be highly explosive for the financial markets.

The revelation is that, according to HBO, Peter Todd is behind Satoshi Nakamoto, but he vehemently denies this.

https://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/bitcoin-erfinder-satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-doku-will-das-geheimnis-lueften-67055b32dd4668399e3be478

https://www.btc-echo.de/schlagzeilen/hbo-tischt-falschen-bitcoin-erfinder-auf-193148/

Wednesday:

German exports are growing, contrary to expectations. In August, goods worth 131.9 billion euros were exported, 1.3% more than in July. The USA in particular is driving exports. Exports to Germany's most important trading partner grew by 5.5%. Exports to China and the UK also increased. Imports, on the other hand, fell slightly to 109.4 billion euros.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/aussenhandel-deutsche-exporte-legen-zu-importe-sinken-deutlich/100077496.html

The FOMC minutes were published on Wednesday evening. Overall, these were received positively on the stock market. The 0.5 percentage point cut in the US was approved by a large majority. However, this is probably not intended to determine the pace of further interest rate cuts.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/fed-prokolle-us-notenbanker-xl-senkung-gibt-kein-tempo-fuer-zinswende-vor/100077711.html

Thursday:

With $BMW (+0.27%) BMW and $MBG (+0.18%) Mercedes, two German brands have made it into the top 10 best-known brands. According to Interbrand, the brand alone is worth more than the companies are currently valued on the stock market. $TSLA (+0.26%) Tesla, on the other hand, is clearly losing brand value. One of the reasons cited is that Elon Musk supports Donald Trump.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/it-medien/interbrand-ranking-zwei-deutsche-in-den-top-ten-der-wertvollsten-marken-der-welt/100072227.html

However, car manufacturers are unable to translate this brand strength into sales. BMW sold 13% fewer cars in the 3rd quarter than in the previous year. Sales fell to 540,000 vehicles. In China in particular, sales fell by 29.8%. However, the main reason for this was delivery stops due to Continental's brake systems. Mercedes was even able to increase sales, at least compared to the previous quarter. In China, however, Mercedes sales also fell by 13%. Mercedes sold a total of 503,600 cars in the 3rd quarter.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/bmw-und-mercedes-schwaches-china-geschaeft-belastet-den-absatz/100077838.html

Inflation in the USA falls to 2.4%, although this is 0.1 percentage points above the general expectation. This means that the inflation rate is still above the Fed's target of 2%. A second major interest rate cut of 50 basis points has therefore become less likely.

https://www.wiwo.de/finanzen/boerse/bitcoin-kurs-aktuell-inflation-in-den-usa-bei-2-4-prozent-bitcoin-gibt-leicht-nach/27382428.html

$NET (+1.04%) Cloudflare acquires Kivera, enabling it to further expand its position in IT security. This will make the use of cloud services in particular more secure for corporate customers.

https://netzpalaver.de/2024/10/10/cloudflare-uebernimmt-kivera-zur-gewaehrleistung-einfacher-praeventiver-cloud-sicherheit/

Elon Musk has promised autonomous driving, but he has delivered a new date. In 2026, series production at $TSLA (+0.26%) start at Tesla. That would be 10 years since he announced the breakthrough. Elon Musk has thus disappointed the markets. What's more, if his bet on Trump doesn't work out, 2026 is also unlikely to be achievable. Only with Trump could the rules be adapted so that the robo-taxi arrives as early as 2026.

https://www.businessinsider.de/wirtschaft/international-business/elon-musk-enthuellt-robotaxi-von-tesla-so-viel-soll-es-kosten/

Friday:

Also $P911 (+0.12%) Porsche is also selling fewer cars, and Porsche's main problem lies in the Chinese sales market. Porsche is also selling almost 1/3 fewer vehicles in China. Similar to Mercedes and BMW, Porsche has hardly granted any price reductions on its vehicles.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/vw-konzern-porsche-verkauft-weniger-autos-taycan-absatz-bricht-ein/100077981.html

Most important dates in the coming week:

Tuesday: 11:00 ZEW survey (DE)

Thursday: 14:15 Interest rate decision (ECB)

Friday: 10:00 Current account balance (EU)

What other important dates can you think of?

#termine
#nachrichten
#ezb