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164Hi!
I'm looking for some advices to perform my 100K portfolio. (from 11/2024)
I'm 52 and have a 10-15 yrs horizon of investment.
I would probably put 2.5K€ each month for 10yrs.
Just don't know if I'm doing good...
Today's purchase : $XZEU (+0.87%) and $QDV5 (+0.19%) for 7.5k€ each, to be more exposed to Europe and also EM in India and an other lumpsum of 12K€ in $ISAC (+1.39%) .
And Crypto $XRP (+0.03%) for 3k€, just for the fun...
Let me Know, Thanks
$XRP (+0.03%) that somehow goes into the cellar #crypto
#xrp
In the last few Bitcoin cycles, there was always a nice pump after Christmas. Everything will be fine. 🎅🎄🎁📈 $BTC (+0.46%)
$MSTR (-5.17%)
$RIOT (+0.69%)
$COIN (-1%)
$MARA (-2.37%)
$ETH (+1.02%)
#krypto
#crypto
#bitcoin
$XRP (+0.03%)
$SOL (+0.68%)
$SOL (+0.05%)
Decided to buy some more $XRP (+0.03%) after todays announcement while everything was low. Thoughts?
Tonight I also triggered a limit order at $BTC (+0.46%) triggered a limit order. A first smaller partial tranche has been sold. Everything is going according to plan. I have even revised the targets announced in my #krypto -I have even adjusted some of the BTC targets announced in my post upwards. This means that the limit order was triggered at around USD 106,500 / EUR 99,000. Over USD 10,000 more than planned. The order, which I also placed with a lot of gut feeling after my analysis, happens to be as good as the nightly top 🥰
The next tranche is at 104,000 EUR / 109,300 USD.
Even though my planning and analysis is based on USD prices for crypto, I have set the limit orders in EUR prices.
I am now also publishing what the profits and stakes will be reinvested in. The exact securities I am looking at have not yet been explicitly mentioned.
So far, investments have been made in $HSBA (+1.09%) from the proceeds of $XRP (+0.03%) , $LINK (+0.52%) and the first tranche of $UNI (+4.27%) -sales.
From today's first tranche of $BTC (+0.46%) -sales, I entered $SHEL (+1.85%) I have entered.
What else will come according to plan? $BP. (+0.46%) As a single share. I would then have 3 shares to cover the third month of each quarter with distributions in a separate portfolio. I want to cover the first two months with ETFs, including the first month with either the $EXSB (-0.16%) or (and) $EXX5 (+1.45%) and the second month with the $FUSD (+1.74%) . Will there be any overlaps with my main or one of the two old ETF portfolios in terms of the composition of the securities? For sure! But that doesn't matter to me, as I consider this portfolio, in which the crypto stakes and profits are invested, separately. As you can see from my articles, this is all about building up the basis, the dividends from which I will then use to build up new crypto holdings in the coming bear market so that I don't have to draw on my net salary. This is because the net salary is firmly earmarked for the regular savings plans and the distributions from the main and old portfolios.
Based on the current prices, I think that my second BTC tranche will be the next to fall. The altcoin season should start very soon. I can hardly wait $BCH (+1.45%) , $LTC (+1.02%) , $SOL (+0.05%) , $DOT (+0.56%) , , the rest $UNI (+4.27%) and $MATIC (+1.4%) to finally get rid of it. But I think it will be most exciting with the higher planned tranches at $BTC (+0.46%) and $ETH (+1.02%) .
Update:
As many of you have noticed, my assessment has come true:
The Total Crypto Market Cap has declined relatively sharply. I'm not mentioning this to portray myself as the hotshot supremo and to get excited that I was right and now wish for recognition in the comments, as I'm relatively introverted and can give myself self-worth and have also often been naive in the past and made the same mistakes over and over again. Back then, I would have liked someone who really knew what they were talking about. That's why I want to emphasize here how important it is for beginners to listen to people who know what they're doing and not blindly believe the crypto YouTuber/Tiktoker you trust, who usually make other content and then pick up the topic again when crypto brings in more clicks. Don't make your own decisions, just follow what has already been done. Some people who have realized profits almost exactly at the top and have shared this publicly here are therefore, in my opinion, very good indicators for all those who are just starting out: @frugalfreisein
@christian and of course @DonkeyInvestor he would have taken better care of his coins.
Current market assessment:
I don't think the party is over. The decline was a healthy move to take the leverage out of the market. However, it is often the case that a strong wave is often followed by another strong wave. This can be easily analyzed with tools like my recently introduced TradingView indicator.
Positive signals:
Negative signals:
Conclusion:
The current risk/reward ratio is significantly better than at the time of my last post. Nevertheless, caution is advised: The situation can change quickly. I continue to assume that seasonal excess liquidity could flow into Shitcoins - albeit to a lesser extent than in the past, as direct consumer stimulus is currently weaker due to the Fed, etc. However, should an income tax cut or similar come along, for example, this could mean immediate liquidity injections for retail investors.
An important point to reiterate: 99% of all altcoins are garbage: $ETH (+1.02%)
$SOL (+0.05%)
$XRP (+0.03%)
Most altcoins are "products" where we as investors are the actual product. These coins can be infinitely inflated, comparable to the "BRRR" of central banks. The only real benefit of many altcoins is the expectation of profit - fundamentally, they are often not needed even if they have a real apparent benefit. Ultimately, all that remains is speculation, and you should be aware of that. It's like a casino, only with better probabilities if you can act without emotion.
In conclusion: Of course I also lost money in the drop, but I didn't burn my fingers and I'm staying in the game. Did you expect the drop 100% of the time? No, of course not.
In any case, my social streak hopes that my post has put you off buying the top.
My advice to all crypto newcomers as an experienced speculator:
It's always the same pattern. BTC leads the way, and slowly the voices of those who have understood it and have been with it for years begin to be heard. When the rise becomes unhealthy, those who have never dealt with it before come in - and they want to buy the top. This is followed by an important consolidation of the BTC price, where the general entry price increases, which is important for the market. When the price goes down in this consolidation, you see on-chain that many small wallets that bought the tops sell in panic, while the big wallets sell on the tops. When things get boring and there is little price movement in the BTC chart, the shitcoins pump.
At the Shitcoin top, people start asking again where the best place to buy these Shitcoins is, especially the Shitshit Coins. At the same time, you can see on-chain that the tops of these Shitcoins are sold again and again through exchange inflows from large wallets, while the retailer panics about not being at the party. So far, it has always been the same pattern, every single time. When it feels like no one is interested in BTC anymore, everyone has given up and massively exchanged "gold for shit", the BTC price breaks through to a new level again. I am sure that many people are now thinking about getting back into BTC.
Please, if you think you need to anticipate this seasonal retailer over-liquidity, rethink your speculative decisions. Also, be aware that shitcoins are not about utility, but only about the expectation of profit. If you look at the Shitcoins, ETH is the only one that can really be used - although the applications are also questionable, as this utility is virtually unused at the moment. ETH has massively underperformed compared to the other shitcoins. Why is that? Because we once again have a $APE (+3.8%) market in which coins are bought that live on a sectarian community, have a simple narrative and don't require any study to understand. I think most people's logic is: "Hey, I know this ticker, it already pumped in the last bull run, and the price is still very low, BTC is too expensive and can't go any higher." The problem is that retailers do not look at the market cap and have not plotted the chart logarithmically.
Everyone should do what they want, and I don't want to say that the party won't go on. There will certainly be more seasonal retail over-liquidity between now and the end of the year, as always, because Christmas bonuses or perhaps money from grandparents etc. are coming in. This "extra money" is then often seen as a lottery ticket. The easy money has already been earned and the party will only go on as long as retailers have excess liquidity.
I hope this helps some to avoid losses and understand how someone who has been around a long time sees things. I still have Shitcoin positions, but they are trading positions for me. You don't put Shitcoins in your portfolio for the long term - it's dead money 99% of the time, see the $XRP (+0.03%) chart. The only thing that really makes sense in the long term is BTC, because it has the greatest utility than digital gold and the best track record. Of course, you could also mention $ETH (+1.02%) as a lot has been built here. Probably also LINK $LINK (+0.52%) as it is more or less the industry standard for oracles, and Arbitrum $ARB (+1.84%) as an L2 solution. $SOL (+0.05%) Solana has also gained benefits, but compared to ETH it is still no comparison. The main benefits of SOL seem to be pump-and-dump, rugpull and memecoins.
Once again, the people who understand the market have already made a lot of money and are looking to cash out rather than put new money into XY new BTC now. I'm still slightly long, but I check the on-chain activity every day, sell the strength and buy the weakness.
By the way, after the new BTC ATH, we also had a local on-chain ATH in transactions from BTC wallets to exchanges. $BTC (+0.46%)
$XRP (+0.03%) Very small, my first crypto experience..........
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