Hannover Rueck

Analsyst updates, 06.12.

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• BERNSTEIN raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 220 to EUR 227. Outperform. $SIE (-0.29%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 38.70 to EUR 44. Neutral. $ENR (+2.08%)
• JEFFERIES upgrades BMW from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 80 to EUR 85. $BMW (+0.87%)
• ODDO BHF raises the price target for AURUBIS from EUR 70 to EUR 76. Neutral. $NDA (-1.54%)
• UBS raises target price for AUTO1 from EUR 9.80 to EUR 20.50. Buy. $AG1 (+3.11%)
• UBS raises the target price for NORDEA from SEK 144 to SEK 145. Buy. $NDA FI (-1.74%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for FREENET from EUR 34 to EUR 36. Buy. $FNTN (-1.23%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for DS SMITH from GBP 4 to GBP 5.80. Hold. $SMDS (+0.73%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for THYSSENKRUPP from EUR 3.80 to EUR 4.10. Neutral. $TKA (-1.72%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for SALZGITTER from EUR 11.50 to EUR 14.10. Underweight. $SZG (-0.9%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC from EUR 270 to EUR 275. Overweight. $SU (-0.75%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for KNORR-BREMSE from EUR 88 to EUR 92. Overweight. $KBX (+0.91%)
• MORGAN STANLEY upgrades HANNOVER RÜCK to Overweight. Target price EUR 292. $HNR1 (-0.97%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for COMMERZBANK from EUR 18.40 to EUR 19.50. Overweight. $CBK (-1.64%)

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• GOLDMAN lowers the price target for LVMH from EUR 770 to EUR 720. Buy. $MC (-0.25%)
• MORGAN STANLEY downgrades MUNICH RE to Equal-Weight. Target price 523 EUR. $MUV2 (-1.1%)
• JEFFERIES downgrades MERCEDES-BENZ from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 73 to EUR 60. $MBG (-0.07%)
• ODDO BHF lowers the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 43 to EUR 38. Neutral. $DHER (+3.05%)
• WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for COMPUGROUP from EUR 31 to EUR 24.50. Buy. $COP (+0.05%)
• JPMORGAN lowers the price target for VESTAS from DKK 143 to DKK 123. Neutral. $VWS (-2.71%)
• JPMORGAN lowers the price target for KION from EUR 44 to EUR 43. Overweight. $KGX (+0.89%)
• MORGAN STANLEY downgrades ORSTED to Equal-Weight. Target price DKK 480. $ORSTED (-0.3%)

Dax dividends fall

In 2025, the 40 DAX companies will be paying out seven percent less than last year, according to a forecast by Handelsblatt. Car manufacturer shareholders will be hit particularly hard.

Many DAX shareholders will have to adjust to lower dividends for the current financial year: According to a forecast by Handelsblatt, the 40 Dax-listed companies will pay out a combined €48.5 billion next spring. That would be seven percent less than in the previous year.

At the same time, 22 companies are likely to further increase their payouts and eight will reduce their dividends. But overall, there will be a decline for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic. This is mainly due to the car manufacturers, where the dividend total is likely to fall by almost 35% to around ten billion euros. This is due to falling profits at VW $VOW (+1.96%) , BMW $BMW (+0.87%) and Mercedes $MBG (-0.07%) due to poor sales figures in Europe and especially in the former boom country China.

In contrast, the sporting goods manufacturer Adidas $ADS (-0.15%) , the Deutsche Telekom
$DTE (-0.92%) and the arms manufacturer Rheinmetall $RHM (-0.78%) are increasing their dividends particularly sharply. This also applies to Deutsche Bank
$DBK (-1.71%) and Commerzbank $CBK (-1.64%) and the insurers Allianz $ALV (-0.66%) , Munich Re
$MUV2 (-1.1%) and Hannover Re
$HNR1 (-0.97%) . The healthcare group Fresenius $FRE (-0.84%) has not distributed anything for 2023, but is now planning a dividend again.

Commerzbank analyst Andreas Hürkamp sees a rotation: "In 2011, the automotive sector replaced utilities as the sector with the highest dividends. Now it is becoming apparent that after 14 years, insurers will be the new number one dividend payers in the DAX."

Handelsblatt

Analyst updates, 05.12.

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• HSBC upgrades SIEMENS to Hold. Target price EUR 185. $SIE (-0.29%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 450 to EUR 535. Hold. $MUV2 (-1.1%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for HANNOVER RÜCK from EUR 255 to EUR 294. Buy. $HNR1 (-0.97%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for TALANX from EUR 70 to EUR 76. Hold. $TLX (-0.96%)
• JEFFERIES raises the price target for ORACLE from 190 USD to 220 USD. Buy. $ORCL (-0.32%)
• HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB raises the target price for MTU from EUR 264 to EUR 280. Sell. $MTX (-0.47%)
• BARCLAYS upgrades AUTO1 from Equal-Weight to Overweight and raises target price from EUR 9 to EUR 19. $AG1 (+3.11%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for HELLOFRESH from EUR 14 to EUR 16. Overweight. $HFG (+0.69%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 42 to EUR 55. Overweight. $DHER (+3.05%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for CTS EVENTIM from EUR 104 to EUR 112. Overweight. $EVD (-0.58%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for SCOUT24 from EUR 92 to EUR 105. Overweight. $G24 (+0.54%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for JUST EAT TAKEAWAY from GBP 16.02 to GBP 18.32. Overweight. $TKWY (+0.68%)
• JPMORGAN upgrades DELIVEROO from Neutral to Overweight and raises target price from GBP 1.70 to GBP 1.92. $ROO (+2.07%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from EUR 150 to EUR 151. Overweight. $HEI (-0.69%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 49 to EUR 59. Neutral. $FRA (+5.53%)

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• METZLER lowers the price target for HYPOPORT from EUR 220 to EUR 185. Sell. $HYQ (-0.35%)
• ODDO BHF lowers the target price for SCHOTT PHARMA from EUR 38 to EUR 37. Outperform. $1SXP (+0.91%)
• BARCLAYS lowers the target price for RIO TINTO from GBP 61 to GBP 60. Overweight. $RIO (-0.87%)
• JPMORGAN downgrades STRÖER from Overweight to Neutral and lowers target price from EUR 79 to EUR 57. $SAX (-1.31%)

Analyst updates, 18.11.

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- MORGAN STANLEY raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 212 to EUR 220. Overweight. $SIE (-0.29%)

- HSBC raises the target price for RHEINMETALL from EUR 660 to EUR 700. Buy. $RHM (-0.78%)

- HSBC raises the target price for DEUTSCHE TELEKOM from EUR 33.50 to EUR 34. Buy. $DTE (-0.92%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for ALLIANZ SE from EUR 275 to EUR 310. Buy. $ALV (-0.66%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 52 to EUR 57. Buy. $ENR (+2.08%)

- UBS upgrades AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from USD 338 to USD 375. $APD (+0.04%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for SWISS RE from CHF 127 to CHF 138. Outperform. $SREN (+0.04%)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 523 to EUR 551. Overweight. $MUV2 (-1.1%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for HANNOVER RÜCK from EUR 206 to EUR 217. Underweight. $HNR1 (-0.97%)

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- MORGAN STANLEY lowers the target price for BAYER from EUR 35 to EUR 30. Equal-Weight. $BAYN (+0.17%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the target price for SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS from EUR 60.50 to EUR 59. Buy. $SHL (-1.01%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX downgrades KNAUS TABBERT to Hold. Target price EUR 15. $KTA (+0.16%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for SGL CARBON from EUR 10.60 to EUR 9. Buy. $SGL (-1.08%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for PVA TEPLA from EUR 18 to EUR 14.50. Hold. $TPE (+1.5%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for KERING from EUR 340 to EUR 320. Buy. $KER (+0.06%)

- ODDO BHF downgrades BECHTLE to Neutral. Target price 37 EUR. $BC8 (+0.82%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for UNITED INTERNET from EUR 27 to EUR 23. Equal-Weight. $UTDI (-1.53%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for 1&1 from EUR 19 to EUR 17. Equal-Weight. $1U1 (-0.61%)

- BERENBERG lowers the target price for AIR LIQUIDE from EUR 195 to EUR 190. Buy. $AI (-0.22%)

- HSBC downgrades PORSCHE SE from Hold to Reduce and lowers target price from EUR 36 to EUR 26. $PAH3 (+0.42%)

Earnings this morning 👇🏼

Continental AG Q3 24 Earnings $CONTI

- Sales EU9.83B (est EU9.97B)

- Adj EBIT EU873M (est EU804.4M)

- Adj EBIT Margin 8.9% (est 7.96%)

- Automotive Rev EU4.8B (est EU4.8B)

- Lower FY Sales Outlook To Around EU39.5B To EU42B

Hannover Re $HNR1 (-0.97%) raises its profit outlook for 2024 to EUR 2.3 billion, which leads to a share price increase of 1.4 percent in pre-market trading. The profit target for 2025 is EUR 2.4 billion and is considered conservative by analysts.

Salzgitter
$SZG (-0.9%) confirms the loss of just under 198 million euros in the first nine months and is sticking to its transformation course despite possible takeover plans. The second-largest shareholder GP Günter Papenburg AG is examining an offer for the steel group, while the state of Lower Saxony remains skeptical.

11.11.2024

USA apparently stops delivery of AI microchips from Taiwan to China + Bitcoin reaches new all-time high of $80,076 + Hannover Re expects even more profit despite hurricane series

Apparently, the US Department of Commerce has sent a letter with export restrictions to the chip manufacturer. This is not the first time that TSMC $TSM (+0.43%) has had to suspend deliveries. 10.11.2024 - 09:14 New York/Singapore. The USA has banned a Taiwanese manufacturer from exporting microchips for artificial intelligence applications to China. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) will not be allowed to supply advanced chips to Chinese customers from Monday, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters. These chips are often used for AI programs. According to the insider, the US Department of Commerce has sent a letter to TSMC imposing export restrictions on chips with structures in the seven nanometer range, among other things. The US order comes a few weeks after TSMC informed the US Department that one of its chips was used in an AI processor from the Chinese company Huawei was found. However, Huawei is one of the companies that the US has imposed trade restrictions on. All sales of advanced technology goods to Huawei must therefore be licensed by the USA. TSMC has already suspended deliveries to the China-based chip designer Sophgo after the AI-enabled chip was discovered in the Huawei product. Informed circles had already told Reuters last month.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/tsmc-usa-stoppen-offenbar-lieferung-von-ki-mikrochips-aus-taiwan-an-china/100087326.html

The Bitcoin $BTC (-1.79%) reached a new all-time high of $80.076 on Sunday night, German time, which means we are not that far away from the $100,000 that many investors are expecting. What do you think? Will we still reach it in 2024?

The world's third-largest reinsurer Hannover Re $HNR1 (-0.97%) is expecting higher profits this year despite the recent hurricane losses. Instead of at least 2.1 billion, the surplus should now amount to around 2.3 billion, the Dax-listed company announced in Hannover on Monday. For the coming year, outgoing CEO Jean-Jacques Henchoz and his successor Clemens Jungsthöfel have set themselves a target of around 2.4 billion euros. In the third quarter, the reinsurer earned significantly more than analysts had expected. The bottom line for the months of July to September was a profit of 663 million euros, 30 percent more than a year earlier, although flooding in Central and Central Europe cost the Group 225 million euros and hurricane "Helene" in the USA had a negative impact of 130 million euros. The consequences of hurricane "Milton" at the beginning of October are not likely to be reflected in Hannover Re's figures until the fourth quarter.

Monday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Stock market holiday US bond market (US stock market is open)

ex-dividend of individual stocks

ArcelorMittal EUR 0.25

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:15 Stabilus | Hypoport Quarterly figures

07:30 Continental | Hannover Re | Salzgitter | Qbeyond Quarterly figures

08:00 Hawesko quarterly figures | Hannover Re PK | Direct Line Insurance Q3 sales

10:30 Stabilus Analyst Conference

12:30 Continental Analyst Conference

14:00 Hypoport Analyst Conference

No time specified:

- Federal Network Agency: Decision on letter postage Deutsche Post (later morning)

- Elmos Semiconductor Capital Markets Day

Economic data

• 00:50 JP: BoJ Current Account 9/24 | Trade Balance 9/24
• 08:30 DE: Real Estate Financiers Association VDP presents figures on real estate prices in the 3rd quarter
• 10:45 DE: Süddeutsche Zeitung, SZ economic summit, Berlin
• 11:30 DE: Government press conference, Berlin

SL at $HNR1 (-0.97%)

In the short term, the upward trend no longer exists and the losses were therefore realized.

Part of it, too bad chocolate

$SCR (+2.97%) - Reinsurance

(6 largest reinsurers)

Has anyone here already taken a closer look at the world's six largest reinsurers or delved a little deeper into the figures? In contrast to $MUV2 (-1.1%) and $HNR1 (-0.97%) and I would like to know why. Does anyone have a deeper insight?

It can't just be the political environment ?

Maybe someone knows what to look for when searching ? ✌️

Insurance sector likely to grow thanks to robust global economy

Short and sweet

The global insurance sector can expect good growth and higher profitability in 2024 and 2025, supported by a robust global economy and higher interest rates. Global gross domestic product is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Non-life insurance is expected to grow by 3.3% to USD 4.6 trillion in 2024 and by 2.6% in 2025. Life insurance will benefit from rising premium volumes and higher profitability, with premium growth of 2.9% to USD 3.0 trillion in 2024 and similar growth in 2025. Challenges remain due to inflation, extreme weather events and geopolitical uncertainties, among other things.

The global insurance sector can expect good growth and higher profitability in the current and coming year. This will be supported by a robust global economy and higher interest rates, according to a study by reinsurer Swiss Re.

Long and more detailed:

Despite geopolitical tensions and higher inflation, the global economy is proving "remarkably resilient", explained Swiss Re chief economist Jérôme Haegeli in the Swiss Re Institute's new "World Insurance Sigma" report. The robust global economy should increase demand for insurance.

According to Swiss Re estimates, global gross domestic product will grow by 2.7 percent in the current year and by 2.8 percent in 2025. Even if the return to lower inflation rates is not proceeding smoothly, monetary conditions have begun to ease worldwide: In September, the US Federal Reserve is expected to make its first cut in key interest rates.

Due to inflation and the resulting increase in claims costs, the trend towards higher prices in non-life insurance is likely to continue. According to forecasts, the premium volume in non-life insurance will grow by 3.3% to 4.6 trillion dollars in 2024, with growth of 2.6% expected in 2025.

In the life insurance sector, the positive interest rates are having a doubly positive effect: Institutions can expect an increase in premium volume and higher profitability. Premiums are forecast to rise by 2.9% to 3.0 trillion dollars, with similar growth expected in 2025 (+2.7%). The operating result is expected to increase by 15 percent, particularly in the largest markets.

The insurance industry continues to face major challenges, explained Kera McDonald, Chief Underwriting Officer of the Swiss Re Corporate Solutions division: these include severe weather events, which have increased significantly in recent years. The annual standard of insured losses is now over 100 billion dollars, with a growth rate of 5 to 7 percent per year.

Inflation is also leading to rising claims. Geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties are also influencing insurers' business. Since 2020, insurance claims from strikes, riots and civil unrest have increased by a factor of 30, according to McDonald. Rapid technological change, for example in the field of artificial intelligence, poses additional risks.

The largest reinsurers:

$MUV2 (-1.1%)

$SREN (+0.04%)

$HNR1 (-0.97%)

Happy Investing

GG

Sources:

awp

McKinsey Global Insurance Report 2023 | McKinsey (2023 - for context)

Top 50 Global Reinsurance Groups - Reinsurance News

09.07.2024 +++ Insurers with fewer claims than expected +++ Hydrogen shares with drop in sales for 2025 +++

The share prices of reinsurers Munich Re $MUV2 (-1.1%) (+3.0%) and Hannover Re $HNR1 (-0.97%) (+3.0%) recovered. They had recently suffered from speculation about losses following the early and severe start to the hurricane season.

In the MDAX K+S $SDF (-1.31%) fell by 5.8 percent. Bank of America downgraded the stock by two notches to underweight from buy. However, Stifel is also negative on the share and described it as the least favored in the sector.

The US bank JPMorgan has downgraded the shares of ITM Power $ITM (+2.92%) from "Overweight" to "Neutral" and gave them the cautionary stamp of "Negative Catalyst Watch". Analyst Patrick Jones thus pointed out the correction risks for hydrogen shares in the run-up to their financial results in mid-August on Monday evening. The expert fears that a disappointing sales forecast for 2025 will depress market expectations for the new and subsequent financial year.

Tuesday: stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Klepierre EUR 0.90

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:30 OMV Trading Update 2Q

09:00 Porsche sales 2Q

Untimed: Porsche AG: Pre-Close-Call 2Q

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Truck Toll Performance Index June
• 10:00 IT: ECB Governing Council member Panetta, video message for the General Assembly of the Banking Association
• 16:00 US: Fed Chairman Powell, Semi-Annual Hearing in the Senate Banking Committee
• No time specified:

US: Nato, Start of Nato Summit July 9-11, 2024 in Washington, D.C.

IN: Russia's President Putin, meeting with India's Prime Minister Modi (since Monday)

UK: First House of Commons meeting planned after the British general election, London