First of all: I don't want to talk down anyone's investments here. Everyone has their own strategy - that is important and right. Nevertheless, I am sharing my personal assessment of luxury stocks such as LVMH, Christian Dior, Moncler, Prada, etc.
In the years 2020 to 2023 - during and after the pandemic - the luxury sector experienced a real boom. Restrictions in everyday life, no restaurant visits, canceled vacations - many people suddenly had more money in their bank accounts that they actually wanted to spend. And what happened? The luxury companies' marketing machines were running at full speed. Influencers, FOMO, exclusivity - luxury became the new must-have.
T-shirts that might cost 1 dollar to produce were sold for 500-1000 dollars. Bags without a logo were suddenly considered worthless. And champagne only Moët, please - nothing else. You either belonged - or you didn't. Clever hype, without question. The companies were delighted. Record sales, new stores, more staff.
But now? Inflation, price rises, economic headwinds. Official inflation may be 0.3-0.4 % - in reality, we are all feeling something completely different. Housing, food, travel - everything is becoming significantly more expensive. And this is having an impact: the middle class, which helped fuel the luxury boom, is slowly returning to its senses. A Gucci shirt for 1000 dollars? No longer bought. Many items end up on platforms second-hand at a 90% discount - in the hope of getting at least a fraction of the money back.
Of course, there is always a small target group that can and wants to afford real luxury - no question about it. But the mass hype? Over in my opinion. Similar to watches, Pokémon cards, expensive wine & whiskey - it was a trend. And trends pass.
The current economic and geopolitical outlook does not exactly point to a new boom in this sector. There is also a growing awareness: Paying $1,000 for a shirt that's already crumbling after seven washes doesn't exactly seem like a smart decision to many, looking back.
I don't want to make a blanket statement here: "Luxury is bad" - on the contrary, I love beautiful things just as much. But for me, it's not an investment, it's a desire, a pleasure - like a nice car or a good watch.
Conclusion: The current weakness of LVMH & Co. comes as no surprise to me. It will be interesting to see what happens next. But my capital is flowing into other sectors for the time being.
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