$NOVN (-0.07%)

• New study data show a significantly improved efficacy of the cancer drug Kisqaliespecially in women under 40 years of age.
• The combination with endocrine therapy significantly delays the course of the disease.
• This makes Kisqali more attractive for a broader application and could against competing drugs.
• The data were presented at a leading oncology conference and could Strengthen Novartis' market position.

Source: https://de.investing.com/news/economy-news/novartisbrustkrebsmittel-kisqali-ist-auch-bei-jungeren-patientinnen-wirksam-3019861

Since the beginning of the year, analysts have lowered their profit estimates for the 50 largest listed companies in Europe by almost four percent. This is according to data from the financial specialist Bloomberg.

One of the main reasons for this is the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump Trump and the associated uncertainty. Tariffs make products more expensive, making them less affordable for end customers. In addition, the recent euro exchange rate against the dollar is affecting companies. This makes products sold in the dollar zone more expensive and less competitive. In addition, turnover and profits are reduced as soon as companies convert their dollar earnings into euros and report them on their balance sheets.

But there are exceptions. For five companies in the European Stoxx 50 share index, analysts have increased their profit forecasts for the current financial year by at least five percent since the beginning of the year. by at least five percent - for one group by as much as 15 percent.

Handelsblatt profiles the shares of these companies with a view to their business prospects, their stock market valuation and their share price potential.

The candidates are:

$PRX (-0.56%) - Prosus | 20 analysts per buy / 4 hold

$CFR (+1.8%) - Richemont | 17 buy / 16 hold / 1 sell

$NOVN (-0.07%) - Novartis | 9 buy / 15 hold / 5 sell

$SAP (+1.9%) - SAP | 25 buy / 6 hold / 3 sell

$IBE (+0.2%) - Iberdrola | 12 buy / 19 hold / 2 sell

The detailed analysis is available here (€):

https://hbapp.handelsblatt.com/cmsid/100124777.html

Source: Handelsblatt, 09.05.25

In addition

$NOVN (-0.07%) x 600

$NESN (+0.56%) x600

$ZURN (+0.2%) x 100

Lufthansa: $LHA (+0.78%)

- Q1 revenue: €8.13bn (expected: €8.04bn)

- Q1 adj. EBIT: € -722 million (expected: € -718 million)

- Passenger airlines weaker than expected.

- Forecast 2025 confirmed: Significantly higher adj. EBIT than 2024.

- Task force for rapid capacity adjustment in the event of weaker demand.

- North American traffic strong in Q1 (+25% US passengers in March).

HelloFresh: $HFG (-1.38%)

- Q1 revenue: € 1.93 billion (-7%), adjusted EBITDA: € 58.1 million (+250%).

- Efficiency program bears fruit.

- 2025 forecast confirmed: Sales -3% to -8%, EBITDA € 450-500 million.

Novartis: $NOVN (-0.07%)

- Q1 net profit: USD 3.6 bn (+33%).

- Forecast raised: Sales growth now expected in the high single-digit percentage range.

Mutares: $MUX (+1.94%)

- Q1 revenue: €1.53bn (+13%), net result holding company: €29.5m.

- Exits planned for 2025 (>€200m gross proceeds expected).

- Partial sale of Steyr Motors generates € 74m.

Symrise: $SY1 (+1.18%)

- Q1 organic growth: 4.2%, sales: € 1.32 bn.

- Full-year forecast confirmed: 5-7% organic growth, EBITDA margin ~21%.

DWS Group: $DWS (+1.19%)

- Q1 revenues: €753m (+3%), net income: €199m (+13%).

- Record inflows: € 19.9 billion.

- Cooperation with Deutsche Bank in the Private Credit segment.

Deutsche Bank: $DBK (+1.55%)

- Q1 pre-tax profit +39%, highest quarterly profit in 14 years.

- Revenue growth and cost reductions drive earnings above expectations.

Johnson & Johnson (Pharmaceuticals) - $JNJ (+0.12%) Invests over 55 billion US$ in the USA within four years to expand production and researchreuters.com. Four new plants are planned (the first in Wilson, North Carolina, has already been launched)reuters.com. This step was taken in March 2025, shortly after the Trump administration imposed a import tariff of 25 % on medicines on medicines and is intended to help produce more medicines domesticallyreuters.com
reuters.com. (Source: company statement/Reuters)

Roche (Pharmaceuticals) - $ROG (-0.16%) The Swiss pharmaceutical company announced 50 billion US$ investments in the USA over the next five yearsfaz.net. This is Roche's response to President Trump's threat to impose tariffs of ~25 % on pharmaceutical importsto produce more important medicines in the USAfaz.net
faz.net. Plans include 1,000 new jobs in production and research (plus approx. 11,000 jobs with suppliers and construction) in the USAfaz.net. Announcement was made in April 2025 (Source: Company statement/F.A.Z.)

Eli Lilly (Pharma) - $LLY (-2.41%) Announced in Feb. 2025, 27 billion US$ to invest in the construction of four new production facilities in the USAreuters.com. This is expected to more than double US production capacity and create over 3,000 new high-tech jobs (plus ~10,000 construction jobs)reuters.com. The background to this is the threat of a 25% tariff on drug imports, which is prompting Lilly to relocate production from Ireland & Co. to the USAfaz.net. (Source: Company statement/Reuters)

Novartis (Pharma) - $NOVN (-0.07%) Plant 23 billion US$ for the expansion of 10 US sites (including 6 new production plants and an R&D center in San Diego)reuters.com. This five-year investment offensive (announced on April 10, 2025) comes two days after Trump announced "big tariffs" on drug imports
reuters.com. Novartis wants to relocate the production of important drugs to the USA (>1,000 new highly qualified jobs plus ~4,000 jobs in construction and support)reuters.com
reuters.com. (Source: Company statement/Reuters)

Merck & Co (Pharmaceuticals) - $MRK (+0%) In March 2025, the US pharmaceutical company (not to be confused with Merck KGaA) opened a new US$ 1 billion plant in North Carolina and announced plans to invest a total of ~8 billion US$ in the USA by 2028reuters.com
reuters.com. Trump is increasing the pressure on the industry to move production back and has threatened to impose 25 % tariffs on pharmaceutical products
reuters.com. Merck has responded by investing over USD 12 billion in US plants since 2018 and is continuing to expand in order to circumvent import tariffsreuters.com
reuters.com. (Source: Reuters)

Hyundai (Automotive) -$HYUD In March 2025, the South Korean manufacturer announced a package of 21 billion US$ of investments in the USAspectrumlocalnews.com. This includes, among other things US$ 5.8 billion for a new steel mill in Louisiana (approx. 1,400 jobs)spectrumlocalnews.com and a new e-car plant in Georgia (US$ 8 billion)which will create over 8,500 jobsspectrumlocalnews.com. Hyundai is thus increasing its US production capacity to over 1 million vehicles/year
autohaus.de
spectrumlocalnews.com. President Trump saw this as a success for his tariffs - Hyundai would "produce its steel in America and build cars in America and thus not have to pay tariffs"
autohaus.de
spectrumlocalnews.com. (Source: Company statement/Spectrum News)

Stellantis (Automotive) - $STLAM (+2.68%) The Fiat-Chrysler/PSA Group provides 5 billion US$ to expand its US production facilitieswhitehouse.gov. The centerpiece is the reopening of the Belvidere plant (Illinois), which was shut down in 2023 to produce new models (including a mid-size pickup)automotivemanufacturingsolutions.com. This will create around 1,500 jobs for regular UAW employees will be restoredautomotivemanufacturingsolutions.com
automotivemanufacturingsolutions.com. This investment was announced in late 2024/early 2025 in connection with the new UAW collective bargaining agreement and Trump's auto tariffs (25% on imported cars from April 2025) agreed - Stellantis' Chairman met personally with Trump to "secure the future of the company"automotivemanufacturingsolutions.com. (Source: Company statement/FT/AMS)

TSMC (Semiconductor) - $TSM (+1.83%) The Taiwanese chip contract manufacturer TSMC announced in March 2025 that it will invest an additional 100 billion US$ to invest in the USAreuters.com. The plan is to build five new factories over the next few years (three chip fabs, two packaging plants and a large R&D center)reuters.com
reuters.com. The background to this is US efforts to be less dependent on Asian chips (national security) - Trump emphasized that key semiconductors "be built here in the USA"reuters.com. TSMC's expansion is expected to create 40,000 construction jobs in four yearsreuters.com and reduce dependence on imports. (Source: Company statement/Reuters)

Apple (Electronics) - $AAPL (-0.02%) The tech company announced 2025, 500 billion US$ to invest in US manufacturing and educationwhitehouse.gov. This enormous sum (over 4 years) includes already planned expenditures, but signals Apple's willingness, to relocate more production and value creation to the USA
reuters.com. Apple has been under pressure because many of its products (iPhone, Mac) are manufactured in China and are being targeted by Trump's China tariffs could be targeted by Trump's China tariffs. The investment pledge - including new US locations and supplier programs - is intended to help maintain exemptions from import tariffs and promote "Made in USA"reuters.com
reuters.com. (Source: Company statement/White House, Reuters)

Sources: Primary data from the companies and reports (F.A.Z., Reuters, Spectrum News, etc.), see citations.

$NOVN (-0.07%)
$ROG (-0.16%)
$SAN (-0.68%)
$YPSN (+0.45%)
$SFZN
$LONN (+0.45%)
$DESN (+0.55%)
$BANB
$BANB (+0.24%)

The USA is heavily dependent on imports for medicines. The Trump administration is pushing for manufacturers to expand their capacities in America. Even industry giants such as Roche and Novartis are under pressure to do so.

The name alone is frightening: the Swiss pharmaceutical companies, together with other drug manufacturers, are the target of a so-called Section 232 National Security Investigation. As part of this investigation, the US Department of Commerce wants to find out whether the national security of the USA is at risk due to excessive dependence on imported medicines.

The instrument is based on a law from 1962 that is still in force and was first used in the 1980s against manufacturers of machine tools, among other things. It is regarded as a broadly supported basis for justifying the imposition of tariffs.

Swiss industry association caught off guard

Drug manufacturers have only 21 days to participate in the consultation on the initiation of the investigation. The Swiss pharmaceutical industry appears to have been caught off guard by the request, which was published in the middle of this week on the website with the daily announcements of the US administration (Federal Register). The industry association Interpharma announced on request that it is currently clarifying with its member companies whether a submission would be expedient.

Novartis, the second-largest Swiss drug manufacturer, is also currently reviewing the announcement. Roche, Switzerland's largest pharmaceutical company, does not wish to comment on the issue. Lonza is also declining to comment at this time. Unlike Roche and Novartis, the Basel-based group does not have its own products, but manufactures drugs on behalf of numerous pharmaceutical and biotech companies.

Markus Blocher is not yet sure

A smaller competitor of Lonza, the Zofingen-based company Siegfried, is more talkative. It has confirmed that it will participate in the consultation process in the USA. Dottikon ES, another Swiss contract manufacturer of pharmaceutical products, says: "We will examine the documents and decide whether and how we will respond." Markus Blocher, Chairman of the Board of Directors, CEO and majority shareholder, adds that he cannot yet say whether he will make his decision public.

As part of the consultation process, not only Swiss pharmaceutical companies, but all drug manufacturers with business in the USA are invited to provide answers to ten different questions. From a Swiss perspective, question eight is particularly controversial: the companies are to state how they assess the feasibility of measures to expand American production capacities.

Other questions concern the role of foreign supply chains in the production of medicines for the American market or the influence of foreign subsidies on the competitiveness of the American pharmaceutical industry. The Department of Commerce also wants to know to what extent foreign governments can impair the supply of medicines to the United States with the help of export restrictions.

High US deficit in trade with medicines

The USA is by far the largest pharmaceutical market. Last year, it is estimated that over 460 billion dollars were spent on prescription drugs in the country. However, most medicines for the American market are imported from abroad.

In 2024, the USA imported a total of 210 billion dollars worth of pharmaceutical products. Swiss exports of pharmaceutical products to the United States alone, including vitamins and diagnostics, amounted to almost CHF 32 billion. At the same time, American exports in the pharmaceutical sector amounted to only 95 billion dollars.

In the eyes of the new US administration, this represents an unacceptable imbalance. President Donald Trump is known for interpreting any trade deficit as a sign that the United States is being ripped off.

Trade Minister puts pressure on

Howard Lutnick, the new Secretary of Commerce, already indicated a week ago in an interview with the ABC television station that he saw national security being violated. He insisted that the United States must produce critical goods such as medicines itself.

Swiss pharmaceutical companies are therefore also faced with the question of how they could contribute to increasing the USA's own supply of medicines. Dottikon ES has to start practically from scratch. The company, which primarily supplies its active ingredients for tablets to American customers as well as European customers, has concentrated all its activities at its headquarters in Aargau. Whether this single-site strategy can be maintained in the face of growing political pressure from the USA is questionable.

Pharmaceutical companies that do not yet have a production facility in the USA could have certain production steps carried out by American partner companies. Another option would be to set up their own plant in the United States. However, this is likely to take several years and is associated with high investments in the USA, not unlike in Switzerland. Dottikon, for example, has invested 700 million Swiss francs in the expansion of its main plant in recent years in order to almost double its production capacity.

Siegfried considers itself to be in a comfortable position

Siegfried is in a better position with regard to American expectations. The company already generates the majority of its turnover with customers in the American market with services provided in the United States itself. The company estimates that only 20 percent of this contribution is imported into the USA.

Siegfried benefits from the fact that it only acquired a third American production site in the middle of last year. The company's management emphasizes that it will continue to expand its presence in the United States in the future, whether through its own efforts or with the help of acquisitions.

Basel-based competitor Bachem also wants to grow in America. According to a spokesperson, the company is planning to invest a significant double-digit million amount in the expansion of its plant in Vista, California.

How many billions will Roche raise?

Swiss pharmaceutical companies can try to score points in Washington with such announcements. Ultimately, however, only investments running into the billions are likely to alleviate the US government's concerns about dependence on imports.

The 23 billion dollars that Novartis announced last week in investments in the expansion of its production network and research activities in the USA fall into this category. Another major investment is expected from Roche in industry circles. There is also talk of a double-digit billion amount. Roche itself is keeping a low profile. A Group spokeswoman merely states that "something" is coming and that the company will comment on this in due course.

Tariffs on medicines probably unavoidable

The high export surplus achieved by local pharmaceutical companies in business with the USA is considered the main reason why the Trump administration has imposed "reciprocal" tariffs of 31% on Switzerland. It remains to be seen when the pharmaceutical industry will have to expect industry-specific tariffs on the import of medicines to America. When the "reciprocal" tariffs were announced on April 2, pharmaceutical products were explicitly exempted. This remained the case when Trump announced just one week later that the tariffs would be suspended for 90 days for all countries with the exception of China, with the exception of a minimum rate of 10 percent.

However, Lutnick made it clear in a television interview a week ago that there was no way around tariffs on pharmaceutical products. "They will come in the next month or two," said the trade minister. Donald Trump has also repeatedly repeated his threat to punish the pharmaceutical industry with tariffs in recent weeks. He has spoken of 25 percent or more.

At 25 percent, drug manufacturers would come off just as badly as car, steel and aluminum manufacturers. Trump had already had Section 232 investigations carried out against these industries during his first term as president. However, all three industries were only recently hit with the painful 25 percent rate. The Swiss pharmaceutical industry can now try to prevent the tariff hammer from coming down on them with clever answers.

https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/roche-und-novartis-sollen-mehr-medikamente-in-den-usa-produzieren-ld.1880533

In this article, I would like to give my personal assessment and opinion of some established pharmaceutical companies.

As a naive and uninformed person, I always believed that the pharmaceutical sector would play a major role in the future.

Now I have taken a closer look at the companies on the basis of fundamental key figures and have come to a very sobering conclusion.

However, I only evaluate the past and draw conclusions for the future from the past. I cannot evaluate and assess something like a pipeline because I lack the understanding and specialist knowledge.

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I looked at the following companies:

Bayer $BAYN (+2.69%)

Eli Lilly $LLY (-2.41%)

Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+0.12%)

Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (+1.03%)

Roche $ROG (-0.16%)

Pfizer $PFE (-0.39%)

Merck $MRK (+0%)

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Let's start with the most popular title:

$NOVO B (+1.03%)

Novo Nordisk has the best fundamentals of all the stocks we looked at. The growth is right, the margins have been consistently above 30% since 2013 (unique selling point) and the return on equity is very high.

However, there has been disproportionately strong sales growth in the last 3 years. Probably due to GLP-1?

The question here is whether this growth can be maintained and whether sales can remain at this level? These uncertainties, as well as the regularization of GLP-1, could partly explain the fall in the share price in recent months. The valuation ratios are still quite sporty, but could this be justified in view of growth and margins? The quarterly figures will be very interesting.

I will start a savings plan and continue to monitor the shares.

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$BAYN (+2.69%)

Bayer AG has lost over 60% of its share price since the beginning of 2023. In my naivety, I thought that the share was now attractively valued. In fact, it has a price/sales ratio of just 0.47% and yet I would not invest.

If you look at the balance sheets of the last 10 years and further back, growth and profitability, you can see that the share has always been fundamentally weak. At best, it may be interesting for a trade, but I would not invest.

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$LLY (-2.41%)

Eli Lilly is basically a good company with solid figures. However, there have been one or two ups and downs over the years and balance sheets. If the company had invested in 2017 despite the poor figures at the time, it would be up several hundred percent today.

2024 was a record year for Eli Lilly with a 32 % increase in sales to around USD 45 billion. The main reason for this growth was the strong sales figures for diabetes drugs and weight loss injections.

In my opinion, the share is heavily overvalued despite its qualities and lags behind Novo Nordisk in many respects (fundamentally). I expect a significant correction here. This may not occur until 2026 or 27, but a price/earnings ratio of over 70 is in no way justified.

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$JNJ (+0.12%)

I think Johnson & Johnson is a conglomerate, as it also sells consumer goods. It has little to no growth, quite good profitability and a dividend of over 3%🤑.

I guess you don't necessarily have to own this share, as it doesn't stand out from the others in any way (but it does, it beats Bayer, for example, across the board) but it could possibly be a defensive stock for stability, if you value that sort of thing, and the dividend could also be a decisive factor if you buy it at the right time.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

$PFE (-0.39%)

Pfizer is clearly a corona profiteer that achieved record sales in 2021 and 22. After Corona, the awakening and a share price drop of over 50 %.

From 2010-2020, sales even declined and margins ranged from 12% to over 40%. I suspect that the turn around to the pre-corona level could succeed, so my price target is $29-44.

Here, too, I do not see a quality company, not a must-have and at best a trade or the dividend, which is currently over 6%, could also be interesting here.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

$ROG (-0.16%)

I thought only gold and chocolate came from Switzerland. That's not the case, because there is also Roche, not Ferrero Rocher but the pharmaceutical company. You would have to read up on this and find out more, because there seem to have been serious capital measures since 2022, which make the fundamental data look very negative.

So it looks (if the data from my data provider is correct) that Roche has not been profitable since 22. Operating profit in 2024 has fallen to a level similar to the lows of 2015 and 17. Cash flow and return on capital are negative and there has actually been no sales growth since 2019.

If you look at the company from 2011-2021, they were actually quite solidly positioned.

I don't want to make a clear judgment on Roche because I don't think I have enough information to be able to correctly interpret these figures for the last three years, because what looks like a pile of 💩 (chocolate) could also be an opportunity. But I don't know.

Incidentally, it looks very similar at Novartis $NOVN (-0.07%) looks very similar and so I am encouraged that there may be a political geographic background that needs to be identified in order to value these stocks correctly.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

$MRK (+0%)

Merck shares are in the midfield. From 2010-2018, the figures even declined. Continuous growth has been observed since 2018, with record sales in the last 3 years in particular.

The share appears to be relatively cheaply valued with a P/E ratio of less than 14.

For me, the question remains whether this profitability is sustainable and whether a strong year will not be followed by another weak one. Personally, the risk/return ratio for Merck would be too low for me.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My conclusion:

I will keep my distance from the pharmaceutical sector, as I am not in a position to assess a pipeline and there could always be medical breakthroughs that I am unable to predict.

On the other hand, expected successes can also fail to materialize or lead to failures and economic losses due to official regulations.

In addition, research is very time and capital intensive and there is no guarantee of success.

I will be satisfied with the share of the pharmaceutical sector in my broadly diversified ETF and, contrary to the above conclusion, start a savings plan on Novo Nordisk 🤓

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Thanks for reading and I welcome additions, corrections and opinions, but please don't be so hard on me. 😇

Hello, I am thinking about restructuring my portfolio, which in my opinion is very unbalanced, with a view to the future. I'm thinking of an investment horizon of around 15-20 years.

I would like to structure the core of my portfolio with the help of 60% #etfs with the help of

• $VWRL (+0.35%) 30%
• $CSPX (+0.44%) 30%

In addition, around 5% of my postage portfolio is to be #crypto above all $BTC (+0.25%) consist of

I invest the remaining 35% in individual stocks.

• Technology sector 8%
• Thought of $MSFT (-0.2%) , $GOOGL (+2.74%) , $AMZN (+1.62%) , $SAP (+1.9%) ,$NVDA (+1.3%) in approximately equal parts
• Healthcare sector 4%
• Something like $JNJ (+0.12%) , $NOVN (-0.07%) , $NOVO B (+1.03%) but I'm not quite sure here yet, I want to read up on it in more detail
• Consumer sector 6%
• Thought of $COKE (+0%) , $1810 (-2.48%)
  $PG (+0.75%) but not sure yet either
• Industrial sector 5%
• Something like $6501 (+4.46%)
  $SIE (+3.21%)
• 
  Energy sector 7%
• $SHEL (-0.25%) , $ENR (+1.98%)
• 
  Financial sector
• $ALV (+0.76%) and $NU (-0.35%)

I currently have a monthly savings rate of 400-500 euros in addition to my studies and would divide this up accordingly and put it into a #sparplan and put it into a savings account.

What do you think of the weighting and do you have any tips, especially in the health sector?

Brief feedback is very welcome

#stockanalysis
#portfolio

The $NOVN (-0.07%) CEO Vas
Narasimhan said in an interview with #wef2025 that the pharmaceutical industry is seeking to work constructively with the new Trump administration, despite disagreements with Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

"We face the challenge that the head of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has publicly made anti-science statements"

"Yet we must work with the government to achieve important policy changes for our industry while standing up for vaccines and scientific principles"

Narasimhan reported initial positive discussions with the government. There has even been agreement on parts of the "Make America Healthy Again" agenda.

"This is completely in line with the goals of a company like Novartis"

"This common denominator is a good starting point."

After the interest rate cuts, will dividend stocks win the race in 2025?

Dear stock market players and dividend pearls.

Where will you invest after the interest rate cuts? Bonds!

Or like the Swiss, did you know they have a key interest rate of 0.75%, or dividend favorites and aristocrats:

$LISN (+0.64%)

$SIKA (+1.77%)

$STMN (+1.29%)

$TECN (-0.4%)

$GIVN (+0.58%)

$NOVN (-0.07%)

$ROG (-0.16%)

>4% yields are:

$BALN (+0.61%)

$SCMN (+0.08%)

$NESN (+0.56%)

$$