The world's population is getting older and older, an irreversible demographic change with considerable economic consequences.

This article is intended to provide investment ideas and impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of potential beneficiaries of demographic change. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

The main source is the short analysis "How to invest as the global population ages" by Goldman Sachs [1], which, however, does not name any specific stocks.

I have also added additional sources and charts.

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🌍 Demographic change: growth and ageing of the world's population

The world's population will grow to almost 10 billion people by 2050. But it is not just the number of people that is increasing, their age structure is also changing dramatically. [2]

Increase in the older population:

• The proportion of people aged 60 and over is rising from 8% (1950) to 21.5% (2050).
• In 2050, 2.1 billion people will belong to the over-60 age group.

Source: [2]

Regional differences:

Europe & North America have the oldest populations & remain the most affected demographically.

Latin America, the Caribbean & Asia: The proportion of over-60s will more than double between 2015 and 2050, reaching around 25 %.

Africa remains the youngest region: in 2015, there were 21 countries worldwide with a birth rate of 5 children per woman, 19 of which were in Africa. However, it should be noted that current statistics from 2024 show that the birth rate per woman in Africa was already just 4.07 in 2023 and could fall to 2.79 by 2050. [3]

While industrialized countries are struggling with an ageing society, Africa remains the most dynamic and youngest region in the world. This development can also have an economic impact and open up new investment opportunities. [2]

Goldman Sachs also comments in the article with similar figures, according to which the global population is expected to increase by around 20% by 2050 and senior citizens will make up a disproportionate share. The number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double from 800 million to 1.6 billion during this period. [1]

In view of this demographic development, there are opportunities to benefit from precisely this trend. Opportunities lie in targeted investments in sectors that could benefit from the growing proportion of older people.

🚑 Healthcare: A growing market worth billions

Facts:

• In the USA, people over the age of 65 already account for 36% of healthcare expenditure, although they only make up 18% of the population. Age-related diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and neurological disorders are driving up costs. [1]
• Alzheimer's cases are even expected to double worldwide by 2050.

Possible profiteers:

Medical technology

• Medtronic ($MDT (+2.67%) ) - (cardiac pacemakers, diabetes technology)
• Stryker ($SYK (-0.56%) ) - (orthopaedic implants, surgical devices)
• Siemens Healthineers ($SHL (+0.45%) ) - (imaging, diagnostics)

Pharmaceuticals

• Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (+5.32%) ) - (Diabetes & Obesity)
• Eli Lilly ($LLY (+0.32%) ) - (Alzheimer's, Diabetes)
• Roche ($ROG (+1.31%) ) - (Oncology, Diagnostics)

🏡 Senior Living & Care: Bottlenecks in nursing homes worldwide

Facts:

The UK has a shortfall of over 30,000 senior units by 2028. [1]

In Germany, France and Italy there is a shortage of nursing home places due to the ageing population. [1]

In the US, only 2% of people over 65 live in nursing homes, leading to an increasing demand for home care and telemedicine. [1]

Potential beneficiaries:

Care providers

• Brookdale Senior Living ($BKD (-0.96%) ) - (senior living, care facilities)

Homecare

• ResMed ($RMD (-0.09%) ) - (sleep apnea, ventilators)
• Fresenius Medical Care ($FME (+0.32%) ) - (dialysis, home therapy)
• Coloplast ($COLO B (+0.16%) ) - (ostomy care, incontinence products)

Telemedicine

• Teladoc Health ($TDOC (-8.8%) ) - (virtual doctor visits, digital health solutions)
• Hims & Hers ($HIMS (-26.15%) ) - (telemedicine & e-health)

Anti-Aging

• L'Oréal ($OR (+1.22%) ) - (skin care, cosmetics)
• Estee Lauder ($EL (+1.18%) ) - (luxury cosmetics, skin rejuvenation)
• Revance Therapeutics ($RVNC ) - (Botox alternative, wrinkle treatment)

🚢 Leisure & consumption: The new "silver economy"

The following chart shows the distribution of wealth in Germany depending on the age of the main income earner. [4]

It is clear that older people tend to have higher wealth than younger age groups. This is reflected in the significantly higher values for the percentiles for age groups aged 50 and over. In particular, the groups aged between 50 and 74 have the highest assets.

The trends are also similar internationally:

• The wealth of older people is 3x that of millennials.
• Over-60s control more than 50% of consumer spending in many developed countries.
• The global silver economy could reach a volume of USD 15 trillion by 2030 (Oxford Economics).

This observation underlines the economic importance of the older generations and their central role in wealth distribution and consumer spending.

Possible beneficiaries:

Luxury

• LVMH ($MC (+0.4%) ) - (fashion, jewelry, wine & spirits)
• Hermès ($RMS (+0.11%) ) - (Exclusive Fashion & Accessories)
• Richemont ($CFR (+0.31%) ) - (Swiss luxury watches & jewelry)

Cruise (Over 60s book a third of all cruises worldwide [1])

• Royal Caribbean ($RCL (-3.06%) ) - (Cruises for seniors & families)
• Carnival ($CCL (-5.34%) ) - (mass market cruises)
• Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH (-5.77%) ) - (premium cruises)

Motorhome manufacturers/ recreational vehicles (47% of motorhome users are over 55 years old, In the UK, two thirds of over 55s have a motorcycle license, which may indicate a growing market for motorcycles and accessories. [1])

• Thor Industries ($THO (-1.13%) ) - (motorhomes, campers)
• Winnebago ($WGO (-1%) ) - (motorhomes & caravans)
• Harley-Davidson ($HOG (-0.68%) ) - (motorcycles and entry-level electric motorcycles)

🤖 Technology & automation: solution to the labor shortage

Facts:

The labor shortage caused by an aging society is becoming a global challenge. Automation, AI and robotics could help close the skills gap. [1]

Profiteers:

• ABB ($ABBNY (-0.56%) ) - (industrial robotics, automation)
• Fanuc ($6954 (+0.98%) ) - (robotics, factory automation)
• Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (-1.15%) ) - (robot-assisted surgery)
• Siemens ($SIE (-0.45%) )- (automation & also medical technology)

🧠 Conclusion:

Demographic change offers long-term investment opportunities. Early investment in the right sectors can benefit from rising spending on health, care, leisure and technology.

I myself am still looking for one or two individual investments and am a little annoyed that I didn't get into Hims & Hers earlier, although I have been on the verge of doing so several times. Apart from the luxury segment with LVMH, the portfolio also includes Siemens as a conglomerate in the field of automation.

Do you explicitly take demographic change into account in your investments, e.g. in the form of individual shares?

Which shares do you have in your portfolio or do you still see them as an opportunity?

Thanks for reading!

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Sources:

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-to-invest-as-the-global-population-ages

[2] https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52811/demografischer-wandel/

[3] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1343516/umfrage/entwicklung-der-fertilitaetsrate-in-afrika/

[4]

https://www.iwd.de/artikel/mit-dem-alter-waechst-das-vermoegen-489710/

After the interest rate cuts, will dividend stocks win the race in 2025?

Dear stock market players and dividend pearls.

Where will you invest after the interest rate cuts? Bonds!

Or like the Swiss, did you know they have a key interest rate of 0.75%, or dividend favorites and aristocrats:

$LISN (+1.9%)

$SIKA (+1.26%)

$STMN (-1%)

$TECN (-0.46%)

$GIVN (+0.23%)

$NOVN (+1.73%)

$ROG (+1.31%)

>4% yields are:

$BALN (-0.22%)

$SCMN (+0.86%)

$NESN (+4.08%)

$$

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- KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for SAP from EUR 200 to EUR 230. Hold. $SAP (-1.87%)

- UBS upgrades HUGO BOSS from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 41 to EUR 49. $BOSS (+0.31%)

- BOFA raises the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 55 to EUR 56. Neutral. $FRA (+0.51%)

- UBS raises target price for RICHEMONT from CHF 144 to CHF 150. Buy. $CFR (+0.31%)

- BOFA upgrades HOCHTIEF from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 112 to EUR 140. $HOT (-0.13%)

- JPMORGAN raises target price for FEDEX from USD 350 to USD 366. Overweight. $FDX (-5.06%)

- JPMORGAN raises the price target for ROCHE from CHF 220 to CHF 230. Underweight. $ROG (+1.31%)

- UBS upgrades BMW from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 75 to EUR 83. $BMW (-0.12%)

- JEFFERIES raises target price for UNICREDIT from EUR 47 to EUR 49. Buy. $UCG (-0.29%)

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- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 61 to EUR 52. Buy. $DHER (-3.81%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for VOLKSWAGEN VORZÜGE from EUR 110 to EUR 100. Overweight. $VOW (-0.15%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for PORSCHE SE from EUR 35 to EUR 30. Underweight. $PAH3 (+0.48%)

- UBS downgrades MERCEDES-BENZ from Buy to Neutral and lowers target price from EUR 72 to EUR 55. $MBG (-1.31%)

- EXANE BNP downgrades HYPOPORT from Outperform to Neutral. $HYQ (-3.92%)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for IBU-TEC from EUR 12 to EUR 7.40. Hold. $IBU (+1.97%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX downgrades SYMRISE from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 122 to EUR 114. $SY1 (+0.2%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for SANOFI from EUR 90 to EUR 85. Sell. $SAN (+0.91%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from EUR 56 to EUR 45. Underweight. $AFX (-0.59%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for SARTORIUS from EUR 290 to EUR 275. Overweight. $SRT (-2.19%)

Update analyst assessments:

$TSLA (-4.32%) | RBC raises target price for TESLA from USD 236 to USD 249. Outperform.

$KO (+2.3%) | JPMORGAN lowers the price target for COCA-COLA from USD 78 to USD 75. Overweight.

$TMUS (+0.32%) | UBS raises the price target for T-MOBILE US from USD 210 to USD 255. Buy.

$T (+2.01%) | UBS raises the price target for AT&T from USD 24 to USD 25. Buy.

$AOF (+0.87%) | WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for ATOSS SOFTWARE from EUR 142 to EUR 144. Buy.

$UA (-0.94%) | UBS raises the price target for UNDER ARMOUR from USD 11 to USD 12. Buy.

$JST (-0.1%) | WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for JOST WERKE from EUR 62 to EUR 77. Buy

$IBM (-0.47%) | UBS raises the price target for IBM from USD 145 to USD 150. Sell.

$FTK (+1.48%) | HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB downgrades FLATEXDEGIRO from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 16 to EUR 15.

$ROG (+1.31%) | DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for ROCHE from CHF 235 to CHF 250. Sell.

$EBAY (-0.09%) | UBS raises the price target for EBAY from USD 59 to USD 72. Neutral.

$KER (+1.01%) | RBC lowers the price target for KERING from EUR 280 to EUR 230. Sector-Perform.

Roche Q3 2024 $ROG (+1.31%)

Financial performance:

Roche reported a 6% increase in Group sales at constant exchange rates, driven by strong core business growth of 8% in Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics. The Pharmaceuticals division achieved growth of 9 %, supported by higher sales of key products such as Vabysmo, Phesgo, Ocrevus, Hemlibra and Polivy. By contrast, sales growth in the Diagnostics division was slightly lower at 5%, with the core business excluding COVID-19 growing by 8%.

Balance sheet analysis:

Management commentary indicates a focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet to support strategic initiatives, including mergers and acquisitions.

Income statement:

The income statement highlights a strong performance driven largely by innovative products. However, the appreciation of the Swiss franc had a negative impact on sales reported in Swiss francs.

Cash flow analysis:

The strong sales growth and disciplined cost management indicate healthy cash flow generation, which supports ongoing investments in research and development as well as strategic acquisitions.

Segment analysis:

• Pharmaceuticals: Strong growth driven by innovative products, with Vabysmo, Phesgo and Ocrevus leading the way.
• Diagnostics: Growth driven by new product launches and strong performance in core business, despite a decline in COVID-19 related sales.

Competitive analysis:

Roche remains a leader in both Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics, leveraging synergies between the two divisions. The company is focused on maintaining its competitiveness through innovation and strategic acquisitions.

Forecasts and management comments:

Management is optimistic about future growth, with a focus on innovative product launches and strategic acquisitions. The company expects growth in the mid to high single-digit range in its core business in 2025.

Risks and opportunities:

• Risks: Currency fluctuations, competition from biosimilars and regulatory challenges.
• Opportunities: Strong portfolio of innovative products, strategic acquisitions and expansion into new markets.

Summary and strategic implications:

Roche's financial performance is underpinned by robust sales growth in pharmaceuticals and diagnostics. The company's focus on innovation and strategic acquisitions positions it well for future growth. However, efficacy fluctuations and competition from biosimilars remain key challenges. Roche's strategic emphasis on leveraging synergies between its divisions and expanding its product portfolio will be critical to maintaining its competitive advantage and driving long-term growth. For me, this was a sell after the strong rise and now I'm waiting to see what happens next, because the pipeline has to prove itself first.

Positive statements:

• Roche saw continued growth momentum in the third quarter, reflecting the high demand for innovative medicines and diagnostic solutions.
• Group sales increased 6% at constant exchange rates, driven by strong demand for novel medicines and diagnostic products.
• The Pharmaceuticals Division achieved 9% growth in its core business, supported by higher sales of Vabysmo, Phesgo, Ocrevus, Hemlibra and Polivy.
• Positive Phase III results for Gazyva/Gazyvaro in lupus nephritis show superiority over standard therapy, demonstrating statistically significant and clinically relevant treatment benefits.
• The cobas Respiratory flex test, which utilizes the new TAGS technology, was launched and represents a significant innovation in molecular diagnostics.

Negative statements:

• Sales in Japan decreased by 21%, mainly due to the base effect of the delivery of Ronapreve to the government in the first quarter of 2023.
• Sales in the Diagnostics division increased by only 5%, while the core business excluding COVID-19 grew by 8%.
• The appreciation of the Swiss franc against most currencies had a negative impact on sales reported in Swiss francs compared to constant exchange rates.
• Sales of Avastin, Herceptin and MabThera/Rituxan decreased by a total of CHF 0.5 billion due to competition from biosimilars.
• The ongoing transition of patients to Phesgo led to lower sales of Perjeta in Europe.

Genmab A/S

Company presentation

Genmab A/S is a Danish biotechnology company specializing in the development of innovative therapies to fight cancer. Founded in Copenhagen in 1999, the company is primarily dedicated to the research and production of monoclonal antibodies for oncology treatment. An outstanding product of $GMAB (+0.47%) is the proprietary Duobody® technology platform, which aims to optimize the treatment of various types of cancer.

Core business and key products

Genmab's core business is the development and commercialization of antibody therapies. Key products include:

• Darzalex (daratumumab): A monoclonal antibody for the treatment of multiple myeloma.
• DARZALEX FASPRO: A subcutaneous formulation of daratumumab.
• Duobody® technology platform: A proprietary platform for the development of bispecific antibodies.

Mission and vision

Genmab's mission is to develop innovative and differentiated antibody products that sustainably improve the lives of cancer patients. The company's vision is to be a leader in oncology through pioneering research and development in antibody therapy.

Historical development

Founded in 1999, Genmab went public on the Copenhagen and Frankfurt stock exchanges in 2000. The IPO raised 1.56 billion Danish kroner (approximately 209 million euros) for the company. In 2002, Genmab was delisted again in Frankfurt.

Business model & core competencies

Genmab's business model is based on the development and commercialization of innovative antibody therapies. The company's core competencies lie in the research of monoclonal antibodies and the Duobody® technology platform. This technological expertise gives Genmab a significant competitive advantage in the field of cancer therapies.

Future prospects & strategic initiatives

Genmab is continuously investing in the further development of its antibody technologies and the expansion of its product pipeline. This promising pipeline points to strong growth potential.

Market position & competition

Genmab has established itself as a major player in the field of antibody therapies. The company competes with large pharmaceutical companies such as $ROG (+1.31%) , $NOVN (+1.73%) and $GSK (-0.74%) , with which it also has development and marketing partnerships. Genmab's market position is strengthened by its innovative technologies and strong partnerships.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The global market for monoclonal antibodies in cancer therapy is growing steadily. In view of the increasing incidence of cancer and the growing demand for targeted therapies, Genmab has considerable growth potential.

Development

Sales are growing at a CAGR of 31%, while the gross margin is growing at a CAGR of 30%. EBIT shows a fluctuating but increasing development with a CAGR of 20%, and net profit is growing at a CAGR of 22%. The number of shares issued is also falling.

Darzalex is clearly the sales driver and therefore the company's most important product. Nevertheless, the other products are also making progress and growing steadily.

Licensing has enabled the company to maintain a gross margin of 100 % for a long time. However, as it is now beginning to take marketing into its own hands, this margin is expected to decline. At the same time, however, the operating and net profit margins should increase. Overall, however, the margins are encouraging, with a net profit margin of over 25%

SBC has risen well, but remains in line with the company's performance. Moreover, there is no dilution of shares due to the buybacks. The free cash flow (FCF) has also increased solidly, so there is nothing to complain about here.

The shareholder yield is just under 4%. The ratio of enterprise value (EV) to EBITDA falls when EBITDA rises and market capitalization falls. In addition, the ratio of net debt to EBITDA is negative, which is also positive.

Genmab's capital efficiencies are exceptional and are all above 10%.

Conclusion

Genmab A/S, with its focus on innovative antibody therapies and a promising product pipeline, is well positioned to capitalize on the growing opportunities in the field of cancer treatment. The company's solid financial performance and strategic partnerships highlight its potential for future growth and innovation in the biotechnology sector.

Although the share price has fallen recently, Genmab still has significant growth opportunities ahead. The promising pipeline and the upcoming launch of new products are expected to contribute significantly to operating income. In addition, the company has an impressive capital efficiency and benefits from the positive economic situation in Denmark.

Denmark has traditionally established itself as a center for medical technology and biotechnology. The explosive development of companies like Novo Nordisk could also have positive spillover effects for other medical companies, including Genmab. Overall, this is an interesting company that I believe is undervalued based on my DCF analysis.

Good news flow in recent weeks at $ROG (+1.31%)
https://pmlive.com/pharma_news/roches-itovebi-combination-granted-fda-approval-for-advanced-breast-cancer/

The enemy of the best is often the good.

I have these ETFs in my portfolio:

$TDIV (-0.63%)

$GGRP (-0.99%)

$FUSD (-1.38%)

$FGEQ (-1.25%)

Some, if not all, have outperformed the MSCI World at times.

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At the moment they are all about the same weighting and should be increased further. While I am trying to implement a growth strategy with equities, these ETFs are intended to generate passive income.

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Objectively speaking, I would have to sell the $FUSD (-1.38%) as it further increases the US share and overlaps heavily with at least two of the other ETFs. In other words, it reduces diversification in all respects.

But on the other hand $FUSD (-1.38%) also the one with the best past return and will probably remain so in the future.

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One approach could be to take the US weighting and overlaps into account in the ETF weighting of the portfolio and implement it as follows, for example:

$TDIV (-0.63%) 40%

$GGRP (-0.99%) 30%

$FGEQ (-1.25%) 15%

$FUSD (-1.38%) 15%

If the ETFs were weighted in this way, the following allocations would result:

Countries/Regions:

USA 56.4%

Canada 4.4%

Europe 33.2%

Asia 5.4%

Top 10 weighting:

$MSFT (-1.57%) 3%

$AAPL (+0.26%) 3%

$VZ (+1.11%) 2,3%

$CVX (-0.58%) 2,1%

$ROG (+1.31%) 2%

$NVDA (-3.63%) 1,9%

$PFE (+1.91%) 1,7%

$HSBA (+1.02%) 1,6%

$IBM (-0.47%) 1,4%

$AVGO (-3.16%) 1,4%

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What do you think of this allocation example? Do you have any suggestions for improvement or comments?