Schott Pharma

Analyst updates, 16.12.

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• JEFFERIES raises the price target for AMAZON from USD 235 to USD 275. Buy. $AMZN (+0.26%)
• CITIGROUP raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 475 to EUR 522. Neutral. $MUV2 (-1.1%)
• BERENBERG raises the price target for RHEINMETALL from EUR 655 to EUR 750. Buy. $RHM (-0.78%)
• WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for PORSCHE SE from EUR 36 to EUR 37. Hold. $PAH3 (+0.42%)
• WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for HENSOLDT from EUR 40 to EUR 42. Buy. $HAG (-0.41%)
• JEFFERIES raises the target price for SHELL from GBP 31 to GBP 32. Buy. $SHEL (-0.74%)

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• BERNSTEIN lowers the price target for PORSCHE SE from EUR 46 to EUR 42. Market Perform. $PAH3 (+0.42%)
• HSBC downgrades SAP to Hold. Target price EUR 260. $SAP (-0.03%)
• LOOP CAPITAL downgrades NETFLIX to Hold. Target price 950 USD. $NFLX (+0.09%)
• EXANE BNP lowers the price target for MERCEDES-BENZ from EUR 57 to EUR 54. Underperform. $MBG (-0.07%)
• JEFFERIES downgrades FORD from Hold to Underperform and lowers target price from USD 12 to USD 9. $F (+0.74%)
• CITIGROUP lowers the price target for THYSSENKRUPP from EUR 5.80 to EUR 5.50. Buy. $TKA (-1.72%)
• STIFEL lowers the price target for AIXTRON from EUR 20 to EUR 18. Hold. $AIXA (+0.02%)
• PARETO downgrades TRATON to Hold. Target price EUR 32.50. $8TRA (-1.87%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the target price for KINGFISHER from GBP 3.50 to GBP 3.40. Buy. $KGF (+0.46%)
• METZLER lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from EUR 104 to EUR 90. Buy. $AFX (+0.2%)
• BERENBERG lowers the price target for SCHOTT PHARMA from EUR 32 to EUR 28. Hold. $1SXP (+0.91%)
• CITIGROUP downgrades 1&1 to Neutral. Target price EUR 15. $1U1 (-0.61%)

12.12.2024

ECB interest rate decision today + Schott Pharma aims to generate more revenue with a similar margin

Little movement ahead of the ECB interest rate decision

• The DAX is likely to remain just below Monday's record high on Thursday morning.
• Investors are likely to await the interest rate decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the subsequent press conference. After an annual gain of around 22 percent in the DAX, they are sitting on a generous cushion that needs to be defended.
• Around an hour before the start of trading, the X-Dax, the indicator for the leading German index, signaled a fall of 0.2 per cent to 20,365 points.
• The Dax reached its most recent record high right at the start of the week at just under 20,462 points.
• The Eurozone's leading index, the EuroStoxx 50, is expected to post minimal gains on Thursday. Its annual gain is currently just under ten percent.
• Most economists expect the ECB to cut interest rates slightly by 0.25 percentage points after the central bank initiated the turnaround in June.

Schott Pharma $1SXP (+0.91%)wants to generate more revenue with a similar margin

• After leaps in sales and operating profit, the MDax climber Schott Pharma is aiming for further growth in the new financial year.
• In the twelve months to the end of September 2025, the Management Board intends to increase revenue in the high single-digit range after adjusting for currency effects, as the pharmaceutical supplier announced in Mainz on Thursday.
• In percentage terms, Schott Pharma should then retain roughly the same amount of this as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA margin) as in the previous financial year.
• The margin was 26.9 percent, or 27.8 percent adjusted for currency effects.
• In the 2023/24 financial year, revenue climbed by seven percent to 957 million euros. The operating result rose by eight percent to 258 million euros.
• At the bottom line, Schott Pharma earned 150 million euros, two million euros less than in the previous year.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks

Associated British Foods 0.69 GBP

MPC Container Ships NOK 0.10

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

15:00 Under Armour Investor Day

22:00 Broadcom | Costco Wholesale Quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Schott Pharma | Bertrandt Annual Results | Fraport Traffic Figures November

07:30 MVV Energie annual results and annual report

11:00 Schott Pharma Analyst Conference | Pirelli AGM

11:30 Siemens Capital Market Day Smart Infrastructure

No time specified:

- Siemens Energy Annual Report

- Hensoldt Capital Markets Day

• Economic data

09:30 CH: Swiss National Bank (SNB), outcome of the Monetary Policy Council meeting December key interest rate FORECAST: 0.75% previously: 1.00%

10:00 FR: IEA oil market report

10:30 DE: Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Pk on the Winter 2024 Economic Forecast, Berlin

14:15 EU: ECB, outcome of the Governing Council meeting and staff projection for growth and inflation in the eurozone Deposit rate FORECAST: 3.00% previously: 3.25%

14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 220,000 previously: 224,000

14:30 US: Producer Prices November PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy Core rate (excluding food and energy) PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy

14:45 EU: ECB, press conference after Governing Council meeting

Analyst updates, 05.12.

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• HSBC upgrades SIEMENS to Hold. Target price EUR 185. $SIE (-0.29%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 450 to EUR 535. Hold. $MUV2 (-1.1%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for HANNOVER RÜCK from EUR 255 to EUR 294. Buy. $HNR1 (-0.97%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for TALANX from EUR 70 to EUR 76. Hold. $TLX (-0.96%)
• JEFFERIES raises the price target for ORACLE from 190 USD to 220 USD. Buy. $ORCL (-0.32%)
• HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB raises the target price for MTU from EUR 264 to EUR 280. Sell. $MTX (-0.47%)
• BARCLAYS upgrades AUTO1 from Equal-Weight to Overweight and raises target price from EUR 9 to EUR 19. $AG1 (+3.11%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for HELLOFRESH from EUR 14 to EUR 16. Overweight. $HFG (+0.69%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 42 to EUR 55. Overweight. $DHER (+3.05%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for CTS EVENTIM from EUR 104 to EUR 112. Overweight. $EVD (-0.58%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for SCOUT24 from EUR 92 to EUR 105. Overweight. $G24 (+0.54%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for JUST EAT TAKEAWAY from GBP 16.02 to GBP 18.32. Overweight. $TKWY (+0.68%)
• JPMORGAN upgrades DELIVEROO from Neutral to Overweight and raises target price from GBP 1.70 to GBP 1.92. $ROO (+2.07%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from EUR 150 to EUR 151. Overweight. $HEI (-0.69%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 49 to EUR 59. Neutral. $FRA (+5.53%)

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• METZLER lowers the price target for HYPOPORT from EUR 220 to EUR 185. Sell. $HYQ (-0.35%)
• ODDO BHF lowers the target price for SCHOTT PHARMA from EUR 38 to EUR 37. Outperform. $1SXP (+0.91%)
• BARCLAYS lowers the target price for RIO TINTO from GBP 61 to GBP 60. Overweight. $RIO (-0.87%)
• JPMORGAN downgrades STRÖER from Overweight to Neutral and lowers target price from EUR 79 to EUR 57. $SAX (-1.31%)

Analyst updates, 04.12.

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- BARCLAYS raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 125 to EUR 130. Underweight. $SIE (-0.29%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 35 to EUR 36. Equal-Weight. $ENR (+2.08%)

- JEFFERIES raises the target price for ADYEN from EUR 1695 to EUR 1797. Buy. $ADYEN (-0.21%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for SALESFORCE from USD 340 to USD 380. Overweight. $CRM (+0.69%)

- HSBC raises the target price for ZALANDO from EUR 37 to EUR 40. Buy. $ZAL (-0.7%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for RHEINMETALL from EUR 680 to EUR 800. Overweight. $RHM (-0.78%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for COCA-COLA HBC from GBP 31.50 to GBP 32. Buy. $CCH (+1.26%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for KNORR-BREMSE from EUR 55 to EUR 60. Underweight. $KBX (+0.91%)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for ABB from CHF 40 to CHF 42. Underweight. $ABBNY (+0.22%)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for ALSTOM from EUR 8 to EUR 9. Underweight. $ALO (-0.84%)

- HSBC upgrades MERCK & CO to Buy. Target price USD 130. $MRK (-1.77%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for DSV from DKK 1685 to DKK 1800. Overweight. $DSV (+0.57%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for LUFTHANSA from EUR 4.80 to EUR 5.50. Underweig$LHA (+1.28%)

- UBS raises the target price for AROUNDTOWN from EUR 2 to EUR 3.30. Neutral. $AT1 (+4.46%)

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- JPMORGAN lowers the target price for DHL GROUP from EUR 47 to EUR 42.50. Overweight. $DHL (+0.13%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the target price for UNITED INTERNET from EUR 38.50 to EUR 37.30. Buy. $UTDI (-1.53%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the target price for 1&1 from EUR 23.50 to EUR 19.10. Buy. $1U1 (-0.61%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the target price for KWS SAAT from EUR 89 to EUR 88. Buy. $KWS (+0.17%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH downgrades HEINEKEN from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 95 to EUR 76. $HEIA (-1.33%)

- EXANE BNP lowers the price target for SCHOTT PHARMA from EUR 36 to EUR 28. Neutral. $1SXP (+0.91%)

- BARCLAYS downgrades SIGNIFY to Underweight. Target price EUR 18. $LIGHT (+0.14%)

- CFRA downgrades BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB to Hold. Target price USD 60. $BMY (+0.75%)

- MORGAN STANLEY downgrades MOLLER-MAERSK to Underweight. Target price DKK 12200. $AMKBY (-0.65%)

- BARCLAYS downgrades ANDRITZ to Underweight. Target price EUR 40. $ANDR (+0.08%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for HAPAG-LLOYD from EUR 85 to EUR 80. Underweight. $HLAG (+1.67%)

Analyst updates, 28.11.

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- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB raises the price target for ECKERT & ZIEGLER from EUR 55 to EUR 56.50. Buy. $EUZ (+1.36%)

- EXANE BNP raises the target price for FREENET from EUR 30 to EUR 34. Outperform. $FNTN (-1.23%)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB raises the price target for NORTHERN DATA from EUR 45 to EUR 52. Buy. $NB2 (+1.81%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for PATRIZIA from EUR 9.80 to EUR 9.90. Buy. $PAT (+0.52%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for EASYJET from GBP 6.70 to GBP 7.15. Buy. $EZJ (-0.68%)

- EXANE BNP upgrades TRATON to Outperform. Target price EUR 35. $8TRA (-1.87%)

- JPMORGAN raises the price target for CTS EVENTIM from EUR 101 to EUR 104. Overweight. $EVD (-0.58%)

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- BRYAN GARNIER lowers the price target for LVMH from EUR 800 to EUR 770. Buy. $MC (-0.25%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for PORSCHE SE from EUR 48 to EUR 47. Buy. $PAH3 (+0.42%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for SYMRISE from EUR 130 to EUR 125. Buy. $SY1 (-0.34%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for ABO ENERGY from EUR 114 to EUR 110. Buy. $AB9 (-0.28%)

- EXANE BNP lowers the target price for 1&1 from EUR 15 to EUR 12. Neutral. $1U1 (-0.61%)

- EXANE BNP lowers the price target for UNITED INTERNET from EUR 20 to EUR 17. Neutral. $UTDI (-1.53%)

- STIFEL downgrades COMPUGROUP from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 64 to EUR 18. $COP (+0.05%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for SCHOTT PHARMA from EUR 33 to EUR 27. Equal-Weight. $1SXP (+0.91%)

- UBS lowers the price target for VESTAS from DKK 245 to DKK 175. Buy. $VWS (-2.71%)

New buy in $NOVO B (-17.74%) and $1SXP (+0.91%) a little $D05 (+0.1%) out and an ETF liquidated. Novo clearly lagged behind this year$LLY (+1.78%) Y , partly because it was doing quite well before, but also for other reasons. In addition to my article on diabetes, in which I shed light on the company's capital structure, which I find extremely interesting, I am hoping for further confirmation through new strategic positioning outside the insulin and obesity business. I am of the opinion that the company is excellently positioned to divert the cash flows from the Ozempic business into innovative products and various projects. It would be desirable for the management to further strengthen this course. The team looks extremely promising and the company could potentially develop into a strong pharmaceutical investment.

As every Sunday, the most important news of the last week, as well as dates of the coming week.

All dates of the coming week in the video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/-GNEKzS7H0U?si=MRBZXj7qgSfLEwnk

Monday:

$3333 Evergrande does not meet the conditions for issuing further share certificates. Thus, no solution was found to reduce the debt in the amount of 300 billion USD.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/immobilien/china-immobilienkonzern-evergrande-erneut-mit-zahlungsschwierigkeiten/29409120.html

No improvement in business sentiment in Germany. The Ifo index falls for the fifth time in a row. The construction sector in particular is pessimistic about the future.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ifo-index-deutsche-unternehmer-bewerten-ihre-lage-erneut-schlechter-a-5aa9e48d-303d-43de-853f-ed9b068c3899

$SE (-1.3%) Sea ltd benefits from a possible e-commerce ban for Tiktok in Indonesia, as well as a new release of Free Fire in India, the share can gain significantly.

https://www.it-times.de/news/sea-limited-warum-die-aktie-der-e-commerce-und-gaming-plattform-aus-singapur-heute-stark-steigt-155856/

Tuesday:

Consumer confidence in the U.S. 🇺🇸 has deteriorated more than expected. The markets have fallen further, the recession seems to be an increasingly realistic scenario.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/dpa/usa-verbrauchervertrauen-truebt-sich-ueberraschend-deutlich-ein/29413178.html

https://www.handelsblatt.com/dpa/usa-verbrauchervertrauen-truebt-sich-ueberraschend-deutlich-ein/29413178.html

According to $MBG (-0.07%) Mercedes $BMW (+0.87%) BMW is the second supplier to receive Stage 3 approval for autonomous driving. $TSLA (-4.58%) Tesla talks a lot about autonomous driving, but is not as far along in terms of approvals as the two premium manufacturers.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autoindustrie-bmw-steigt-in-das-autonome-fahren-ein/29405572.html

The company $TGT (-0.34%) Target forced to close nine stores due to runaway thefts. In the USA, retailers have enormous problems with thefts.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/einzelhandel-einzelhaendler-target-schliesst-neun-filialen-wegen-steigender-kriminalitaet/29413710.html

Wednesday:

Unlike at the Oktoberfest, Germans currently prefer to save rather than consume. The GfK forecasts a further decline in consumer confidence for October.

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Verbraucherstimmung-schlecht-Deutsche-sparen-lieber-article24425447.html

Thursday:

IPO of $1SXP (+0.91%) Schott Pharma seems to be a success. The allotment price was EUR 27 per share, the first price EUR 30.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/aktien/ipo-boersendebuet-von-schott-pharma-aktie-startet-ueber-ausgabepreis/29415294.html

As expected, inflation came down significantly in September and is now still at 4.5% year-on-year. However, a somewhat smaller decline of 4.6% had been expected. The main reason for the sharp decline compared with the previous month (+6.1%) is the discontinuation of the €9 ticket and the fuel price brake in September of the previous year. Thus, it looks like we have reached the interest rate peak. The current interest rates are probably sufficient to push inflation back toward the 2% target.

https://m.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/inflation-ausgebremst-kommt-jetzt-der-preis-frost-85568558.bildMobile.html

Friday:

$NKE (-6.85%) Nike delivers figures yesterday. Sales were slightly below expectations, but earnings were above expectations. Earnings per share rose to $0.94 in the quarter, up from just $0.75 expected. Also $ADS (-0.15%) Adidas and $PUM (-0.32%) Puma also benefit from the figures.

https://stock3.com/news/nike-umsatz-enttaeuscht-gewinn-ueberzeugt-aktie-im-plus-13286823

Inflation is also easing significantly in the euro zone as a whole, and much more strongly than expected. Inflation was 4.3% year-on-year. A rate of 4.6% had been expected. This is 0.9 percentage point lower than in August. There is much to suggest that the ECB will pause on interest rates in October.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/geldpolitik-inflationsrate-im-euro-raum-sinkt-auf-tiefsten-stand-seit-zwei-jahren/29419964.html

Monday: 16:00 Manufacturing (USA)

Tuesday: 08:30 Inflation data (Switzerland)

Wednesday: 11:00 Retail Sales (EU)

Thursday: 08:00 Trade Balance (DE)

Friday: 06:30 Interest rate decision (India)

MEDICAL DEVICES $1SXP (+0.91%)

Is Schott Pharma worth the entry?

With an issue volume of up to 987 million euros, Schott Pharma promises to be the largest IPO of the year in Germany. The share (29.00 euros; DE000A3ENQ51), which is already tradable at brokers as of its release, can still be subscribed to until September 27 in the range of 24.50 to 28.50 euros.

The specialist in drug storage and delivery systems is active in two very high-growth areas (mRNA therapies and GLP-1 drugs). Even with the expected allocation at the upper end of the range, the stock is attractively valued even compared to the competition.

First, on the numbers: Including the greenshoe, up to 34.6 million of the 150.6 million shares held by the parent company, Mainz-based Schott AG, which is part of the Carl Zeiss Foundation, will be listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Schott Pharma will not receive any fresh capital. At full allotment, the free float is 23%, although Qatar Holding has agreed to acquire up to 4.99% of the securities for 200 million euros. In total, the company is valued at 3.69 billion to 4.29 billion euros at the IPO - so this is a heavyweight with ambitions for inclusion in the DAX family landing on the trading floor.

Schott Pharma develops and produces glass syringes, polymer syringes, vials and ampoules for more than 1,800 customers worldwide. Every minute, around 25,000 injections are administered worldwide with the help of Schott Pharma products. The market for injectable drugs is expected to grow by more than 8% annually until 2026. The Mainz-based company itself is expected to generate sales of around EUR 890 million this year (as of September 30) with EBITDA of an estimated EUR 250 million (margin: 28%).

In the medium term, the company, which mainly benefits from structural growth drivers such as the use of special packaging for mRNA therapies (keyword: cooling below 100 degrees Celsius) and GLP-1 drugs (keyword: diabetes, obesity), is targeting sales growth in the low 10% range with an EBITDA margin of over 30%. Both are readily achievable, assuming sales growth of 12% p.a. with earnings growth of 19% p.a. through 2024/25.

Schott Pharma is less comparable with Gerresheimer, which is somewhat more diversified, but rather with pure medical specialists such as the Italian Stevanato or the US Becton Dickinson. According to calculations, this comparison turns out favorably: Schott Pharma is valued even at the upper end of the subscription range only at about 17 times the future expected EBITDA. In the case of the competitors, this ratio is significantly higher at 25 times EBITDA, with their EPS growth estimated to be significantly lower (Stevanato: 13% p. a.; Becton Dickinson: 6% p. a.). The situation is similar for the P/E ratio: Schott Pharma is calculated at 25 times expected earnings for 2023/24, Becton Dickinson at 42 times and Stevanato at 40 times. Since the books were oversubscribed just a few hours after opening, I assume an allocation at the upper end of the range.

I subscribed because of the growth opportunities of the attractive valuation due to a nearly net debt-free balance sheet.