- Oil

- gas

- EU emissions trading

- Copper

- Aluminum

- Gold

- Silver

Link: https://shorturl.at/5VrEF

#gold
#silber
#öl
#oiel
#kupfer
#aluminium
#metall
#edelmetalle
$SHEL (-7.19%)
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$LNVA
$GOLD
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$B7GN
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$1BRN
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$WTI
$WTI
$CVX (-8.09%)
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$OXYP34
$ALEX
$OD7A
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Broaden your portfolio to reduce risk? Tradingview Indicator

Who hasn't experienced this? You think you're diversifying with a new asset, only to realize that it's actually very similar to the rest of your portfolio. This doesn't create a real diversification effect, it's just packaged differently and you have almost the same exposure.

This is where my indicator comes in. It shows you how strongly your current chart (you can use just about anything here: from individual stocks like $PLTR (-11.65%) to ETFs like $IWDA (-5.63%) , bonds, crypto, commodities, economic data, etc.) with key markets such as the S&P500 $VUSA (-5.34%) , the Nasdaq $CSNDX (-5.5%) , the Russell2000 $XRS2 (-4.4%) , the Dax $LYY7 (-5.8%) , China $CNUA (-2.73%) , gold $GOLD silver $PHAG (-4.04%) , bonds or the cryptocurrency $BTC (-1.46%) correlated. This allows you to immediately recognize whether a supposed addition to the portfolio actually changes anything or is basically just a clone of what you already have. Let's take an example: You think you are creating a counterweight to Europe with China, but you realize from the correlation that both markets are moving almost in sync. So you know that this "diversification" is of little use. Apart from the fact that Europe and China generally haven't done much for a long time, haha.

The interpretation of the values is relatively simple. High correlations (close to 1) indicate similar price trends, negative ones indicate opposing trends, and values around zero indicate that there is no clear connection. Bear in mind, however, that correlation is not the same as causality and often only shows indirect relationships. Moreover, historical correlation is no guarantee of future patterns. Nevertheless, this view helps to uncover possible misconceptions and develop more targeted diversification strategies to make your portfolio more resilient. The +/- ratio can now also be taken into account. This is because it often happens that one and the same asset correlates very differently with each other in different phases - sometimes very positively, sometimes very negatively. As a result, the average value can provide a misleading picture. The stronger these fluctuations are, the more percent of the time it is positively or negatively correlated. This is therefore an additional indicator to check how meaningful the average correlation actually is. So + value is the time where the correlation is positive in % etc.

Still to be optimized, that the correlation is not currently limited to certain time periods. For example, if you want to look at the relationship between MicroStrategy $MSTR (+4.34%) and Bitcoin in isolation would have to exclude earlier phases in which MicroStrategy was still a real business and not a "leveraged closed commodity fund" as it is now. In addition to the ATH delta filter, I also plan to incorporate a moving average (MA) as a further trend filter. In the long term, I would like to integrate even more markets, for example emerging markets or non-USD bonds, in order to paint a truly comprehensive picture.

The correlation with interest rate expectations I have used $SHY (short-term government bonds) and $TLT (long-term government bonds). If the SHY falls, the market assumes that interest rates will rise over the next two years. In the case of TLT, this expectation relates to around 16 years and is effectively "leveraged" by the term. If the asset you have shows a high correlation to the SHY, it means that it is relatively sensitive to interest rates (like almost everything). But that would be too much to explain in detail. What is clear, however, is that interest rates play a major role for equities, especially for the Russell 2000, where many smaller, unprofitable companies benefit from low interest rates, as do mining companies with high levels of debt, for example. Of course, it is not the only correlation, but it is an important factor.

• Which other markets or assets would you include to bring more clarity to your analysis?
• Does the indicator even make sense?
• And is there anyone here with a statistical background who would like to go through the code to make sure that everything is calculated correctly or how it could be done better?

I don't know if this is an affiliate link, but don't think so anyway: this is advertising

https://www.tradingview.com/script/kRCxLnhY-Asset-Correlation-Check/

Kevin Warsh: Favorite for US Treasury Secretary and his potential impact on the crypto market

Kevin Warsh, former governor of the Federal Reserve and currently Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, is considered the 51% favorite to become US Treasury Secretary under the new Trump administration, according to Polymarket. His pragmatic stance on cryptocurrencies - from recognizing the potential of Bitcoin to supporting a digital US dollar - makes him a key figure who could have a decisive impact on the crypto market.

Who is Kevin Warsh?

Kevin Warsh was a member of the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011 and played a central role in stabilizing the markets during the 2008 financial crisis. He is known for his deep expertise in monetary policy and his ability to integrate technological innovations such as digital currencies into economic policy considerations. His views combine traditional market approaches with an openness to modern financial technologies.

What power does the US Secretary of the Treasury have?

The US Secretary of the Treasury is one of the most important economic policy makers in the government. The person in this office steers US fiscal policy, oversees the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), and influences international financial relations. Particularly relevant for cryptocurrencies is the role of the Secretary of the Treasury in working with regulatory authorities such as the SEC, CFTC and the Federal Reserve. The Secretary of the Treasury can therefore directly influence the regulation and integration of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in the financial system.

How crypto-friendly is Kevin Warsh?

So far, Warsh has mainly commented on Bitcoin, describing it as the "new gold". His proposal to develop a digital US dollar (CBDC) shows that he takes the potential of blockchain technology seriously. However, his criticism of speculative tokens suggests that he does not have an unreservedly pro-crypto stance. His approach is probably balanced: Support for established cryptocurrencies and technologies, but with clear regulation to protect consumers and the financial system.

Warsh's statements and positions on cryptocurrencies:

1. support for a US digital dollar (CBDC)

As early as 2018, Warsh proposed the introduction of a "FedCoin", a central bank digital currency (CBDC) to secure the international leadership role of the US dollar. He stated: "The Federal Reserve should consider a 'FedCoin'." Warsh argued that a digital dollar could help compete with other countries such as China, which are already working on state-controlled digital currencies. The "FedCoin" could serve as a complement to traditional payment methods.

2 Bitcoin as digital gold

In an interview in 2021, Warsh described $BTC (-1.46%) as a kind of "new $GOLD ". He explained: "If you're under 40, Bitcoin is your new gold." Warsh pointed out that Bitcoin is a way for younger generations to hedge against fiat currency risks. He emphasized that Bitcoin could become more important in an environment of expansionary monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

3. skepticism towards speculative tokens

While Warsh recognizes the potential of established cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, he remains critical of speculative tokens with no clear benefit. He warned: "Such projects not only endanger investors, but also undermine confidence in the entire industry."

4 Blockchain as a transformative technology

Warsh sees blockchain technology as having the potential to make the financial infrastructure more efficient and transparent. He explained: "Bitcoin and the underlying technology could fundamentally change the financial world."

Conclusion

Kevin Warsh combines a pragmatic and forward-looking approach to cryptocurrencies. His appointment could lead to a balanced approach that encourages innovation in blockchain while introducing regulations to protect investors and the stability of the financial system. His potential support for a US digital dollar would reshape the global financial order and could support private stablecoins such as $USDT or $USDC under pressure. However, it remains to be seen whether Warsh will actually be nominated as Treasury Secretary, as the final decision has yet to be made.

Sources:

Polymarket Betting Market: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary/will-trump-nominate-kevin-warsh-for-treasury-secretary?tid=1732035823612

Claims:

Cointelegraph: https://de.cointelegraph.com/news/former-us-federal-reserve-governor-says-federal-digital-currency-deserves-consideration

BeInCrypto: https://de.beincrypto.com/kevin-warsh-wenn-du-unter-40-bist-ist-bitcoin-dein-neues-gold/

Decrypt: https://decrypt.co/53378/federal-reserve-governor-bitcoin

Crypto News Flash: https://www.crypto-news-flash.com/de/bitcoin-ehemaliger-fed-gouverneur-erwartet-fortsetzung-des-bull-runs/

18.10.2024

ECB cuts interest rates in the eurozone + TSMC rises significantly + Netflix wants to become a magnet for TV advertising + Gold price rises above the USD 2,700 mark for the first time + DAX expected to be slightly weaker after record high

The European Central Bank (ECB) cuts interest rates in the eurozone again. The deposit rate, which sets the trend on the financial market and which banks receive for money parked with the ECB, will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 3.25 percent, as the central bank announced in Frankfurt. The decision had been expected

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co $TSM (-6.15%) jumped after the chipmaker posted a net profit of T$325.26 billion ($10.1 billion) in the three months to Sept. 30. The figure was higher than the Reuters estimate of T$300.2 billion. TSMC also gave an optimistic outlook for the current quarter, citing improved capacity utilization among other factors.

The lower-priced subscription with advertising will Netflix $NFLX (-5.74%) a reliable growth driver. In the countries in which it is available, the advertising offer accounted for more than half of new subscriptions in the past quarter. The number of users with such subscriptions rose by 35 percent within three months. The video streaming market leader wants to use the momentum to become more attractive to advertising customers. This could ensure that more advertising expenditure is diverted from traditional TV to the internet service. In several countries - including Germany - Netflix had abolished what was once the cheapest ad-free price tier. The result is that customers who want to save money end up with an advertising subscription. Netflix gained more than five million new customers in the last quarter. The streaming provider now has a total of around 282.7 million customer households - and expects to have around 600 million viewers.

The gold price $GOLD continued to soar at the end of the week, reaching another record high on Friday night. The price of a troy ounce (approx. 31.1 grams) passed the 2,700 dollar mark for the first time and at times cost almost 2,712 dollars. Most recently, the price was slightly lower, but still 0.65 percent above Thursday's level. The price of gold has been rising sharply for months - a year ago, a troy ounce cost less than 2,000 dollars. Traders cited the upcoming US presidential election in a few weeks as one of the reasons for the recent rise. It remains to be seen who will win the US election on November 5 - Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris.

According to the Dax $GDAXI record of almost 19,675 points the previous day, investors on the German stock market are likely to take it easy for the time being on Friday. Broker IG put the leading German index at 19,521 points, down 0.3 percent, a good two hours before the Xetra start. On Thursday, the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate and, with a view to possible further steps, indicated that it would wait and see how the economy develops. Overall, there were no surprises

surprises from the ECB. The data from overseas was mixed at the end of the week. Although Wall Street set further records, the momentum waned over the course of trading. The Asian stock markets were unable to find a common direction. Although China's economy grew slightly more strongly than expected in the third quarter, growth continued to cool.

Friday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Procter & Gamble USD 1.01

Colgate-Palmolive 0.50 USD

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

12:55 Procter & Gamble quarterly figures

13:00 American Express Quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:20 Volvo AB Quarterly figures

10:30 Man and Machine Presentation 9 Month figures

Economic data

• 01:30 JP: Nationwide consumer prices September
• 04:00 CN: GDP 3Q | retail sales 9/24 | industrial production 9/24 | fixed asset investment to 9/24
• 08:00 DE: Building permits
• 10:00 EU: ECB, Current Account August | Survey of Professional Forecasters
• 11:00 DE: IG Metall Mitte, second wage negotiation with employers of the metal and electrical industry in Hesse, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saarland
• 14:30 US: Housing Starts/Permits September Housing Starts FORECAST: -0.4% yoy previous: +9.6% yoy Building Permits FORECAST: -1.7% yoy previous: +4.9% yoy
• 16:30 US: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, speech at Millsaps College in Jackson, Mississippi
• 18:30 US: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at the Mississippi Council on Economic Education Forum as part of the American Enterprise Luncheon

No time specified:

- DE: Chancellor Scholz - Meeting with US President Biden | Participation in EU Summit and Euro Summit

- EU: S&P, rating review Greece | Great Britain | Italy