YTD return:
🥇 Gold: ≈ +39.1 %
🥈 Silver: ≈ +24.7 %
🥉 Copper: ≈ +20.6 %
⚗️ Palladium: ≈ +34.5 %
💎 Platinum: ≈ +45.4 %
🥇Gold:
📈Chart technicals: The uptrend is running in a clean rising weekly channel.
The all-time high at 3 500 $/oz (22 Apr.) is intact; setbacks to the 50-day EMA (~3 300 $) were absorbed each time.
Primary support zone: 3 200 - 3 100 $ - the previous breakout level. RSI > 60 confirms bullish momentum.
ℹ️Fundamental Driver No. 1: Central bank buying.
In 2025, the official sector is again targeting ≈ 1,000 t - the 4th year in a row of massive purchases, driven by de-dollarization and geopolitical hedging.
🥈Silver:
📈Chart technicals:
Despite +25% YTD, the price is still ~30% below the historic peak of $49. The multi-decade cup-and-handle formation is approaching the neckline at 36 - 37 $; a significant weekly close above it could activate a target above 75 $. Short-term supports: $34.8 (May breakout level) and $32.
ℹ️Fundamental Driver No. 1: Supply deficit.
The World Silver Survey reports a shortfall of 149 Moz in 2024; a further 118 Moz is expected in 2025 - largely due to solar and e-mobility demand, while 70% of production is by-product.
🥉Copper:
📈Chart technicals:
On July 8, the "blue-sky breakout" to 12 526 $/t (5.68 $/lb) took place. Volume spike and weekly RSI > 70 confirm strength. The former top band 10 500 - 10 800 $/t now serves as key support; a retest to ~11 000 $ would be technically sound without breaking the uptrend.
ℹ️Fundamental driver no. 1: Structural scarcity.
UNCTAD warns: By 2030, around 80 new mines and $ 250 bn CapEx would be needed to meet demand from the energy transition, data centers and e-mobility - otherwise the market deficit will persist.
This is where I am currently positioned:
🥇Gold:
$EWG2 (+0%)
$IGLN (+0.2%)
$SPGP (+0%)
$GDXJ (-0.76%)
$BTO (-2.65%)
$FF (-1.35%)
🥈Silver:
$PHAG (-0.22%)
$FR (-2.6%)
🥉Copper:
$COPA (+1.28%)
$HBM (-0.95%)
$ATYM (-3.72%)
❓Do you see a continuation of the bull market in metals and are you positioned accordingly?