Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

Passed the next thousand faster than expected - 5,000. An update on the portfolio. My 'Dull Seven' - a nice boring 7 positions (2 ETFs and 5 individual shares).

Long-term investment strategy with an investment horizon of another 15-18 years. From then on it would slowly move towards retirement. I have been invested since 02/2023.

The ETFs as my main investment with currently just under 40% and the goal of reaching 50-60% at some point.

• $VWRL (+0.87%) FTSE All-World, which has now replaced the MSCI World, in order to keep the US below 60% in the long term. (savings plan)
• $VUSA (+1.05%) S&P 500 extra to take advantage of slightly higher returns than the All-World. (savings plan)

Plus a handful of individual stocks:

• $MSFT (+0.08%) f long-term blue chip growth with a small dividend. (savings plan)
• $8001 (-0.28%) long-term strong growth and a decent dividend. (savings plan)
• $ALV (+1.84%) as a long-term runner with a decent yield and very good dividend. (savings plan)
• $BA. (+1.77%) (UPDATE) back in since September. (savings plan)
• $PLTR (+0.69%) as a long-term tech bet with +140% so far/since November '23. Additional purchases when opportunities arise.

I'm facing a challenge that, as is so often the case on the stock market, is all about timing. Specifically, I'm planning to buy a larger tranche of an ETF - let's call it for the sake of simplicity $VUSA (+1.05%) or $IUSA (+1.06%) .

As the US elections are just around the corner, there are various scenarios. Currently, one could assume a 50% chance of Trump winning and an equal chance for Harris.

If Trump wins, there is a realistic possibility that the markets will behave in a similar way to his last election: an initial slump followed by a sustained, euphoric upswing.

The situation is different if Harris wins. Here we would have a kind of "black swan": the first female president of the USA and a defeat for the more business-friendly Republican. The market reaction would be difficult to predict. I could imagine that there would initially be a certain amount of euphoria, followed by slight falls and a phase of sideways price movements, whereby individual sectors could come under particularly strong pressure.

Of course, the election result cannot be reliably predicted, and even less so the reaction of the markets to it. Nevertheless, from a scientific and statistical point of view, one of the following buying strategies is likely to be more advantageous and promising than the others. But which one?

a) I invest 100% of my capital today.

b) I wait for the election results and then invest 100% on November 11, for example.

c) I divide the capital into 4 tranches and invest 25% today, 25% on November 1, 25% on November 6 and the remaining 25% on November 10.

d) Feel free to suggest other buying strategies in the comments 🤓

Which strategy do you think makes the most sense under the current conditions?

How does the stock market react to US elections? A look into the past 🇺🇲

The US elections are a global event that affects not only the political world, but also the economic world. As I am looking to invest a large amount in the S&P500 myself, I wondered how the stock markets would perform after a presidential election. Historical data shows some interesting patterns that give us insight into how markets react to election outcomes.

Short-term uncertainty and volatility

Before and immediately after elections, markets often experience a period of heightened volatility. Uncertainty about which political guidelines the new president will implement leads investors to act more cautiously. For example, the unclear election result in 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore led to a temporary decline in the S&P 500 until the Supreme Court made a final decision and the market regained stability.

Republican or Democrat - does it make a difference?

Interestingly, both parties have historically delivered positive stock market returns, but the immediate market reaction often differs depending on the party affiliation of the election winner. A Republican victory, as with Donald Trump in 2016, is often associated with pro-business policies, such as tax cuts and less regulation, which can lead to a short-term rise in stock prices. After Trump's election, the S&P 500 gained around 5% in the remaining weeks of 2016 as investors hoped for deregulation and economic stimulus.

Long-term market performance - focus on the economy and monetary policy

While elections undoubtedly have a short to medium-term impact, long-term market performance is more dependent on general economic conditions and monetary policy. For example, under presidents of both parties - from Obama to Biden, from Bush to Trump - the stock markets recorded positive returns on average. The Federal Reserve's expansionary monetary policy often played a decisive role in this, as low interest rates and bond purchases supported the markets and boosted growth.

Conclusion

The stock market often reacts positively in the short term to the clarification of political uncertainties after elections. In the long term, however, general economic conditions and monetary policy measures are of key importance. Regardless of the president's party affiliation, historical data shows that stock markets can achieve growth under either party.

$VUAG (+1.05%)
$VUSA (+1.05%)
#usa 🇺🇲

https://www.nber.org/

https://www.cfr.org/election2024/candidate-tracker

https://www.cfr.org/

https://www.spglobal.com/en

Hey, I still have €2,860 available to invest in ETFs. My idea is to put 70% (€2,002) into the $VUSA (+1.05%) 20 % (€ 572) in the $LU0908500753 (-0.15%) or in the $VEUR (+0.41%) and invest the remaining 10% (€ 286) in the $VFEM.

What do you think of my strategy? I'm trying to diversify broadly as I want to hold the ETFs for the long term - especially as I'm still young and have a lot of time left.

I already $VUSA (+1.05%) I already save regularly. If you have any other suggestions or strategies, I would be very happy if you could share them with me.

What do you think of the combination of $VUSA (+1.05%) and $VFEM (+0.03%) and $EXSA (+0.45%)

Thumbs up for good/ thumbs down for bad

If you have any suggestions for improvements, please write them in the comments ⬇️

Hello everyone

About me:

I have just turned 19 and am still training to be a design engineer. I started investing at the beginning of the year. As my salary is not particularly high, I have not been able to invest regularly until now. I invested what was left over at the end of the month. However, I would like to change this and invest regularly in my portfolio.

My goal:

My goal is to generate passive income so that I can benefit from monthly dividends.

My selection:

A large part of my portfolio is invested in $BMW (-1.54%) and $MBG (-0.53%) because they pay high dividends (unfortunately the market has now plummeted). I am also invested in $VUSA (+1.05%) and $CHDVD because they also pay good dividends, pay out several times a year and because I have heard a lot of positive things about them. With $NKE (+3.29%) I got a good entry, but I don't know whether I should keep this position or sell it as soon as I have a 10% profit. Regarding $BTC (-0.2%) I have been decorating weekly for a while, but not again for a long time. I've done a bit of research and reading and have been convinced that cryptocurrencies and especially $BTC (-0.2%) will reach a new "high". If this is the case, I would exit the position and invest the entire amount in the S&P500, for example (what do you think of this idea?). I have the same idea with $AUDIO (-1.22%) and $MATIC (+0.43%) . With $AUDIO (-1.22%) I already had a previous experience, which ended positively after 1 month and I exited the position. When it fell again later, I got back in, but unfortunately without success so far. However, I have no time pressure and the money invested in $AUDIO (-1.22%) and $MATIC (+0.43%) I don't need it and I'm using it to gain "experience". It's good if it ends positively, but if it ends negatively, at least I've learned something from it.

Next steps:

Next, I want to find a stock that pays me dividends in February, August and November. I already have my eye on $AAPL (+0.52%) . What do you think?

My wish:

I would be happy if someone could give me tips on what I could adjust in my portfolio, possibly also which stocks I should get in or out of and how I should divide my money between the stocks/cryptocurrencies in the future if I were to invest CHF 100 every month.

Many thanks in advance