Sold part of my Nasdaq100 ETF. I think things are going to get wild in the tech sector over the next few weeks.

$LXS (+0.47%)
$DBXD (+0.1%)
$IWDA (-0.29%)
$CSNDX (-0.22%)
$CSPX (-0.27%)

Eight percent reality, fifty percent hysteria? The psychology behind price jumps and how investors can deal with them correctly.

Volatility: normality instead of risk?

Hardly a day goes by without some share in the DAX environment recording a significant price swing. This could look like this, for example: A Quartalsberichtminimally misses expectations - minus ten percent. An outlook sounds a touch more optimistic than feared - up eight percent.

But a look at the long-term figures reveals this daily excitement for what it usually is: Irrationality.

Because the bottom line is that the DAX over the past 25 years - including Dividenden - around eight percent per year. Eight percent. Not 20, not 30, eight.

And since the Index is ultimately nothing more than a basket of its constituent companies, this inevitably means that the share prices of these companies have also risen by an average of around eight percent per year over the long term.

Expectations, forecasts, whispered estimates

Anyone who realizes this should find the daily Volatilität seem absurd. If the "fair" value of a company grows by eight percent annually over the long term, how rational can it be that the share price of most Aktienfluctuate by 50% during the year?

Or plummet by eight to ten percent or shoot up after the publication of individual quarterly figures - even though the long-term earning power has often hardly changed?

Of course: information must be priced in. Profits, margins, outlooks, risks - all this is part of the valuation. But in reality, companies Märkte rarely react to facts, but to expectations upon expectations.

In addition, there is a structural problem of modern capital markets: the time horizon has shrunk. It is now only about whether the share price will rise tomorrow - and no longer about where a company will be in a few years' time.

Algorithms, ETFs, short-term funds and a media news cycle that declares every decimal place a "game changer" amplify minimal signals into drastic price movements.

Drama vs. reality

If the daily price fluctuations were taken seriously, the economic reality of DAX companies would have to change radically on a permanent basis. But it doesn't. Mechanical engineering companies, chemical groups or insurers are not suddenly worth ten percent less just because one quarter was a little weaker. Nor are they fundamentally ten percent better overnight because an analyst raises his forecast slightly.

The long-term return of the DAX shows how little remains of all the drama. Eight percent per year - calm, steady, unspectacular. The daily swings are the noise around this trend, nothing more.

And that is exactly what investors should understand. Don't let yourself go crazy if share XY comes under pressure again. In most cases, there is little or hardly anything behind it.

From depression to euphoria - a lesson

Industries and sectors fall out of favor and come under pressure. A few months later, they are back in vogue.

In 2022, for example, we experienced a major tech depression. Meta, NetflixGoogle and many more were on the hit list, only to go on to soar to incredible heights.

Today, everything labeled "AI loser" or "software" is on the brink. In retrospect, the current sell-off in many of these stocks is probably just as incomprehensible as the fact that Meta collapsed to below USD 100 in 2022 from today's perspective.

Those who understand this separation between price and value experience volatility in a completely different way. Price fluctuations lose their horror because they are no longer perceived as a threat, but as the normal state of an irrational market. The Börse is not a precise measuring instrument, but a barometer of sentiment - and sentiment fluctuates more than fundamental data

Lanxess share: Chart from 10/02/2026, price: EUR 20.91 - symbol: LXS | source: TWS

Lanxess, for example, is trading up 7.6% today at EUR 20.91. The only relevant news I could find on the company was an upgrade by Goldman Sachsfrom sell to neutral and an accompanying price target increase from 10 to 23 euros.

What could better illustrate all the short-term madness than this Rating? It fits like a glove. Yesterday Lanxess was only worth EUR 10, today it is worth EUR 23.

New factories must have sprung up overnight.

Source

https://www.lynxbroker.de/boerse/boerse-kurse/aktien/lanxess-aktie/lanxess-analyse/?a=3355991664&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter-boersenblick&newsletter=true&mc-rss-cache-bypass=2026021107&goal=0_d93daae099-69b9decb1c-410756260#was-macht-erfolgreiche-investoren-wirklich-aus

While some people's portfolios are deep red, my portfolio reached a new ATH again today, although the Fear & Greed Index is only at 44. It's hard to imagine what would happen if we were to reach the 80 range. On days like this, you know that the path is absolutely the right one 🤑 $CSNDX (-0.22%) and $TDIV (-0.13%) and a few individual shares make it so easy to increase returns and you have time for the important things in life 🙏🏼

$BTC (+2.12%) but this is tracked separately and only distorts the percentage return.

I wish everyone continued rising prices, although a correction couldn't hurt to buy more intensively 🚀

$MU (-1.52%)
$VUSA (-0.2%)
$CSNDX (-0.22%)

If doing nothing sounds easier than it is in reality, it can sometimes be the best idea to do what you find hardest...

In my view, the following is very valuable help from our Mr. Krieg, especially for those who are still quite new to the stock market

The discrepancy between the index level and the actual state of the market has never seemed as great as it does today. Is something brewing?

The silent crash

At the moment Börse is currently experiencing a veritable massacre, even if a glance at the indices would not suggest it.

But beneath the surface, countless Aktienare being sold off with an intensity rarely seen before.

Almost half of all stocks listed in the USA are trading below the SMA200. For the S&P 500 this would correspond to a price of 5,090 points, i.e. almost 2,000 points or 27 % lower - and then the S&P 500 would only just have reached the SMA 200.

The mood among many investors is correspondingly gloomy.

For a long time, it looked as if the market was divided between AI winners and AI losers. One category was blindly bought, the other mercilessly punished.

But this picture is now crumbling more and more.

Is this the real dividing line?

The market can be divided into two completely different blocks: Stocks that have already performed poorly in recent months are being sold off further.

Those that have already done well are still being bought.

It looks as if the algo traders have completely taken over the market. Ongoing trends are being blindly continued and there has been a complete disconnect from the fundamentals.

A look at the top and flop lists of the S&P 500 underpins this thesis. The five weakest stocks over the past year are, for example, Trade Desk, Fiserv, Gartner, Lululemon and GoDaddy.

The shares were already weak last year and have been sold off further since the turn of the year - the drop is between 13% and 36%.

The same applies vice versa. The top performers over the past year are Western DigitalSeagate, Micron, Lam Research and Comfort Systems. These stocks were already strong last year and have continued to rise significantly since the turn of the year.

Personally, I am involved in both camps, as I own one of the five flop stocks and three of the top performers.

What conclusions can be drawn?

The question now is how to deal with this. What conclusions can we draw and how should we position ourselves?

The market is not behaving irrationally at the moment, but is following a clear, albeit extreme, regime that is strongly characterized by liquidity and trend-reinforcing strategies.

In such an environment, traditional valuation benchmarks and fundamentals lose considerable importance at times because capital is not allocated according to quality or fair value, but instead mechanically follows existing trends.

At the same time, mean reversion hardly works any more: shares that have fallen are not picked up due to favorable valuations, but are often sold on, while rising stocks continue to attract capital regardless of their valuation level.

The decisive factor here is that momentum does not end due to overvaluation, but only ends when the trend itself breaks.

Cash and classification of the current market phase

This market phase feels sick, because it is. But it may stay that way for quite some time.

In my view, those who are currently holding cash are not missing out on any opportunities. Liquidity creates freedom of action, reduces psychological pressure and allows you to react to real trend changes or market distortions instead of having to react permanently.

Especially in strongly trend-driven markets, it often makes more sense to deliberately do nothing than to hope for a quick normalization in unfavourable market segments.

The current market phase feels so unpleasant because it is structurally unhealthy. However, those who recognize which regime the market is in and make their decisions adaptively rather than ideologically will gain a decisive advantage.

It's less about hitting the turning point precisely and more about being mentally and structurally positioned in such a way that you remain capable of acting when the environment actually changes - and it will.

The regime is crucial

We have seen several clearly recognizable regime changes in recent years.

From the "everything hype" in 2021, when hardly any price could be too high, especially for growth stocks.

This was followed by a tech depression in 2022/2023, in which shares were sold off further, even if the business figures were good.

The years 2024 and 2025 were characterized by a gradual improvement in general conditions - falling inflation risks, falling interest rates and the absence of a recession.

These factors boosted the indices despite the general pessimism.

Last year, the US market became increasingly fragmented and this has intensified considerably this year.

It is impossible to predict how long this trend-driven regime will last. However, such phases usually end with a bang.

The imbalances that have built up on the stock market in recent months are considerable.

Finally, I would like to talk about one of the stocks I have already mentioned. You could have told a nice story about each of them - there are reasons for a continuation of the trend in each case, but also very good arguments against it.

However, if you look at Micron's situation, for example, it seems quite unlikely that the rally will not continue

Micron Technology share: Chart from 04.02.2026, price: USD 420 - symbol: MU | Source: TWS

The price gains are well underpinned by fundamentals. Having already multiplied profits in the last financial year, they are set to rise by a further 295% to USD 32.70 per share this year.

This would give Micron a forward P/E of 12.8.

As profits are also expected to rise in the coming financial year, which begins in September, the rally could continue for some time to come

Source

https://www.lynxbroker.de/boerse/boerse-kurse/aktien/micron-technology-aktie/micron-technology-analyse/?a=3355991664&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter-boersenblick&newsletter=true&mc-rss-cache-bypass=2026020507&goal=0_d93daae099-0c8a167c83-410756260#einige-gedanken-zum-aktuellen-zustand-der-boerse-sp-500-und-micron

WOW, a very good morning I would say 🌅

that's what I call a start to February. Makes me immediately happy when I see it 😇

all the price alerts have exploded and robbed me of my sleep

Let's see what the week has in store...

$BTC (+2.12%)
$PHAG (+2.14%)
$4GLD (-0.3%)
$CSNDX (-0.22%)
$ETH (+2.05%)
$VUSA (-0.2%)

Hello my dears,

for all of you who are interested.

A short summary with the TOP and FLOP values.

Tenbagger 2024 +5.31 %

I Shares NASDAQ 100 ETF$CSNDX (-0.22%) +0,10 %

I Shares S&P 500 ETF$CSPX (-0.27%) +0,25 %

I Shares MSCI World $IWDA (-0.29%) +0,87 %

Hello dear community,

I would like to hear your opinion on my portfolio. Criticism, suggestions or even positive feedback - everything is welcome.

I am planning to restructure my portfolio this year.

My aim is to further expand the core and to reduce or completely close some individual positions. Small remaining positions such as $HUT (+5.03%) Hut 8 (up over 500 %, but only around 10 shares left) I would like to sell completely in the near future. I am also considering closing other individual stocks and reallocating the capital to the core.

Would you say sell the dividend stocks like $O (+1.33%) , $KO (-0.47%) and $MAIN (-3.11%) etc. and invest in $MELI (-1.07%) , $ISRG (+1.09%) , $MA (-1.8%) or e.g. $PANW (+2.79%) which will most likely perform better over the next few years... ?!

But I would also be open to riskier stocks, so to speak high risk - high reward, which I am now also trying out with $AML (-0.78%) for example. Bought on Friday... ☺️ (A "gamble")

Currently my core consists of $IWDA (-0.29%) MSCI World, $EIMI (-0.05%) MSCI EM IMI and the $TDIV (-0.13%) VanEck ETF. With the VanEck, however, I am considering whether to keep it or switch to a $CSNDX (-0.22%) Nasdaq 100 ETF instead - with a view to an investment horizon of around 10 years. During this period, I also plan to buy a house together with my wife. (at least that's the goal).

I also have a larger crypto portfolio, which is not deposited with GetQuin, as it is unfortunately not displayed correctly with Bitvavo here on the site. There is currently significantly more capital in crypto than in ETFs and shares. I entered the crypto market at the beginning of 2023 and had more than doubled my portfolio by the end of 2024: around €75,000 became around €175,000 at times.

However, I only realized a few profits and left the majority invested. In the meantime, the portfolio has shrunk considerably again as 2025 was really shitty for crypto (especially altcoins, of course) and is currently even in the red.

However, I assume that Bitcoin will perform better again this year and reach a new all-time high. If that happens, altcoins should also follow suit, so I hope to see decent gains there again.

Now to my questions for you:

Would you change anything about the ETF core?

$TDIV (-0.13%) Keep it or rather switch to a Nasdaq-100 ETF? And get more return (boost)?

Which individual stocks would you rather keep and which would you rather sell?

I am 38 years old and my goal is to buy a house in the next 5-10 years.

Thank you very much and I look forward to hearing your opinions!

Greetings Chris

January is off to a strong start with some strategic moves in my portfolio. Here are the details:

✅ Strategic sale $CSCO (+2.8%)

• Cisco Systems I sold my Cisco shares to free up capital and seize a more promising opportunity.

🚀 Ambitious new purchase $MPWR (+1.49%)

• Monolithic Power With Cisco's cash, I invested in this semiconductor nugget. I'm aiming for stronger growth and a booming sector.

📈 Buying to diversify $MSE (-0.37%)
$CSNDX (-0.22%)
$VHYL (-0.25%)
$IGLN (-0.28%)

• ETF I'd like to invest in the following ETFs: Amundi EURO STOXX 50, iShares NASDAQ 100, Vanguard FTSE High Dividend, and even a little gold with iShares Physical Gold.

• Equities Zoetis (animal health) and Novo Nordisk (pharmaceuticals), to strengthen the health sector in my portfolio. $ZTS (-0.55%)

• Gaztransport & Technigaz a strategic addition to my energy portfolio. $GTT (+2.17%)

• 💎 Crypto always present $BTC (+2.12%)
  $ETH (+2.05%)
• 
  Bitcoin & Ethereum : a few purchases to stay exposed to blockchain.
• Bonus: I've even received awards in ETH, that's fun!

🔥 In a nutshell

January was rich in movement : sales, purchases, crypto and diversification all the way.

Objective 2026: growth, innovation and a portfolio on the move! 🚀

Here's my current portfolio for the start of the new year 😅 I've made a few new purchases to start with $NFLX (+0.87%)
$META (-1.64%) and I also dare the $NOVO B (+1.22%) gamble 🙈

200 each month in $CSNDX (-0.22%) and $IWDA (-0.29%)

Otherwise I buy individual stocks that I am convinced of when I have a few pennies left over 😬 With Novo and Metaplanet I still have a small gamble with me😬