Expensive, cheap, crash, bull market, bear market... none of that matters to my savings plans... just keep going

🇺🇸 The U.S. economy grew by 1.5% year-over-year—exactly as expected, but significantly slower than the 2.1% in the first quarter. At the same time, inflation came in higher than expected:

• Total PCE inflation: 3.7% in July, compared to an expected 3.6%
• Core rate: 3.3%, as expected
• Personal income: +0.4% monthly
• Real consumption: 0.0%

At least we’re heading in the right direction: In May, the inflation rate was still 4.1%. Nevertheless, the rate is still nearly twice as high than the Fed’s 2% target.

What does this mean for the stock market?

If growth were slowing, a rate cut would be the usual response. But with inflation at 3.7%, a rate cut would likely intensify price pressures.

This dilemma could explain why the Fed, on July 29, decided to 9 to 3 to keep interest rates steady—and all three dissenting votes were in favor of a hike , not for a cut.

On Friday, Kevin Warsh will speak for the first time in Jackson Hole (a gathering of the world’s leading central bank governors and economists)—his tone is likely to shape expectations for September 16 (the next interest rate decision).

https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits-2nd-quarter-2026
https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2026

$CSPX (+0.68%)$CSNDX (+0.84%)$IWM (-0.02%)

Friday was a special day because I became a father for the first time 👶. To celebrate the occasion, I bought my son gold, silver, Bitcoin, and the NASDAQ 100 ETF, all for 2,500€ each.

1.) UBS NASDAQ 100 ETF A412XA, TER: 0.13%

2.) WisdomTree Physical Swiss Gold USD ETC A1DCTK, TER: 0.15%

3.) WisdomTree Core Physical Silver ETC A4AE1X, TER: 0.19%

4.) Bitcoin (Alternative: 21shares Bitcoin Core ETP A3GZ2Z, TER: 0.10%)

The last three are tax-free after a one-year holding period. The greedy government gets nothing. Just a few hours after his birth, my son is already a Bitcoin holder, a shareholder, and a precious metals investor. Priorities. And there you have it: the “Junior Portfolio.” What do you have in your child’s junior portfolio?

We discussed these two precious metal ETCs in podcast episode 159: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3K5LRl3gTl0OlxaA12xPob?si=ojJydfKPSHWpsW2Hw4etJA&nd=1&dlsi=ea7ce84bd4f6449f

$CSNDX (+0.84%)
$BTC (-0.92%)
$EXXT (+0.83%)
$XNAS (+0.82%)$WGLD (+1.64%)
$SSLN (+2.24%)
#gold
#silber
#edelmetalle
#bitcoin
#btc
$QQQ (+0.78%)
#nasdaq
#nasdaq100
#etf
#etfs
#etc
#traderepublic

On August 18, the U.S. national debt surpassed the $40 trillion —that’s twice as much as it was in 2017.

What does that actually mean? And what are the implications?

The debt figure alone doesn’t tell us much. It only becomes meaningful when broken down into three parts: what it costs, who finances it, and at what price.

Where does the debt come from?

The U.S. government consistently spends more than it takes in and closes this gap through bonds. For the current half-year, the figures look like this:

• Deficit according to the Congressional Budget Office: $1.9 trillion or 5.8% of GDP
• Expenditures: $7.4 trillion · Revenues: $5.6 trillion
• July alone: $432 billion deficit, the highest monthly figure since March 2021

This is driven by two areas that are virtually untouchable politically: Social Security and Medicare, whose number of beneficiaries is growing along with the aging population. Added to this is last year’s tax package (The Big Beautiful Bill), which permanently reduces revenue. The CBO estimates its impact at $4.7 trillion in additional deficits by 2035.

Debt isn’t a problem as long as it’s cheap.

That is precisely what is changing now: Interest payments this year already total ~$1.2 trillion —more than the U.S. spends on defense or Medicare. This figure is projected to double to $2.1 trillion by 2036—rising from 3.3% to 4.6% of GDP.

From this point on, the debt feeds on itself: Old, low-interest bonds mature and are refinanced at today’s (very high) interest rates. Every dollar of interest must be borrowed again. This effect is called crowding out: the interest burden eats into the leeway for everything else in the budget.

Why are interest rates so high right now?

The 30-year U.S. yield rose above 5.3% in August, the highest level since 2007; the 10-year yield stands at around 4.7%.

Three factors are at play here:

Supply: The government must issue over $2 trillion in new debt annually

Competition: Record volumes of corporate bonds issued to finance AI expansion are competing for the same buyers

Inflation risk: Inflation remains above the Fed’s target, recently exacerbated by higher oil prices

The Treasury Department has responded by doubling its repurchases of long-term securities to at least $4 billion per operation, effective September 9. Yields fell briefly and rose again the following day—a sign that the market views the measure more as liquidity support than as a response to the underlying cause.

What are the implications?

The 10-year yield serves as the benchmark for mortgages, auto loans, and corporate financing. If it rises, the cost of borrowing rises across the entire economy. For stocks, this same interest rate acts as a discount rate:

The higher it is, the less future profits—which lie far in the future—are worth today, which particularly affects highly valued growth stocks.

As for bond portfolios themselves: Rising yields mean falling prices, and the longer the maturity, the more severe the impact.

Overall, , the 40-trillion mark is primarily symbolic. The more meaningful figure is the debt-service ratio: Unlike social spending or defense, debt service cannot be cut or deferred. And as long as the interest rate exceeds the growth rate, it grows faster than the economic output that is supposed to support it. A large economy can certainly bear a heavy debt burden—but what matters is how things proceed from here.

$CSPX (+0.68%)
$CSNDX (+0.84%)
$IWM (-0.02%)

Sources:

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61882

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/national-debt-tops-40-trillion-doubles/

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/treasury-announces-upscaled-buyback-operation-for-longer-term-debt-sending-yields-lower.html

🇺🇸 U.S. PPI & UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS:

• PPI 4.7% YoY (Expected: 4.9%)
• PPI 0.0% MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
• Core PPI 4.2% YoY (Expected: 4.1%)
• Core PPI 0.2% MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
• Initial Jobless Claims 209K (Expected: 202K)
• Continuing Jobless Claims 1.777M (Expected: 1.794M)

Producer price inflation (PPI—which measures the prices producers receive for their goods, i.e., inflation one step before it reaches consumers) came in consistently lower than expected in July: On a month-over-month basis, prices remained flat (0.0%); year-over-year, the PPI came in at 4.7%, below the consensus estimate. Initial jobless claims rose slightly but remain near their lows.

What does this mean for the stock market?

Low producer price inflation takes pressure off the interest rate path: An interest rate hike is thus less likely, making a hold on the benchmark rate the more probable scenario.

In the short term, this could provide support for stocks—the key factor remains whether the slowing price momentum will persist in the coming months.

Sources:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

https://investinglive.com/news/us-initial-claims-for-the-current-week-209k-vs-202k-estimate/

$CSPX (+0.68%)
$CSNDX (+0.84%)

Hi everyone,

So far, I've been putting 15% into the $CSNDX (+0.84%) to give my portfolio a little tech boost. 🚀

Now I’m wondering if I should take on even more risk with this $IUIT (+0.79%) , since I’m already taking a conservative approach $VWCE (+0.64%) .

What do you think about this?

Thanks a lot. 😺

$IUIT (+0.79%)

$CSNDX (+0.84%)

$XNAS (+0.82%)

$UST (+0.82%)

$BCFP (+0.86%)

$XLKS (+1.01%)

🇺🇸 The U.S. economy unexpectedly 23,000 jobs —a gain of about 80,000.

The figures for May and June were also revised sharply downward: May from +129,000 to +63,000 (−66,000) jobs, and June from +57,000 to +20,000 (−37,000).

The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% (expected: 4.2%)—though this was primarily because fewer people are even looking for work.

Wage growth fell to 3.2% —the lowest level since May 2021.

What does this mean for the stock market?

Until yesterday, most markets were still anticipating a interest rate hike in September—but following the data release, that probability has now fallen significantly, a holding the key interest rate is now the more likely scenario.

In the short term, this is positive, but it is important to continue monitoring how the labor market performs in the future. Should it take a sharp turn for the worse, recession fears could dash hopes of interest rate cuts.

$CSPX (+0.68%)$CSNDX (+0.84%)

Source:

www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

- Market Capitalization

- AI Megatrend

- Business Models

- ChatGPT vs. Claude Comparison

- Financial metrics

- Investments by hyperscalers

- Inclusion in the Nasdaq 100

- Net equity requirement

- Conflicts of interest

- Shareholder investments

Link: https://shorturl.at/LFShp

$NVDA (+1.65%)
$QYLE (+0.32%)
$CSNDX (+0.84%)
$AMZN (+1.09%)
$AAPL (+0.6%)
$META (+2.34%)
$MSFT (+1.8%)
$TSLA (+5.75%)

Micron $MU (+0.1%) , Nebius $NBIS (+3.26%) , Meta $META (+2.34%) , Nasdaq 100 ETF $CSNDX (+0.84%) , AI boom, tax reform, unions

YouTube

https://openyoutu.be/z8aje2NnEQQ?is=9yamhSvilKUKwmfx

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2mEF7YOIFNMiG4I1Mk3d9H?si=uW6P-QrlSEqQy19N-lk19w

Apple Podcasts

https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/152-micron-nebius-meta-nasdaq-100-ai-boom-steuerreform/id1695869891?i=1000775431150

So, according to JP Morgan’s estimates, there should be about $4.3 billion in demand for SpaceX on Monday or Tuesday, since all NASDAQ-100 ETF companies are required to buy it.

Then I can finally sell off this "chip shop," and I’m not interested in its future performance for now, because my passive U.S. exposure currently excludes the Nasdaq and instead focuses on the S&P 500 and RAFI US.

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/spacex-set-join-nasdaq-100-paving-way-wave-passive-buying-2026-06-27/

$SPCX (+6.33%)
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