I challenge you to critique my current holdings. Any critique is welcome. Go!

Here are my current holdings:

$MSFT (+0.78%)

$META (-0.1%)

$MA (+0.88%)

$BRK.B (-0.32%)

$AMZN (-0.07%)

$ASML (+0.39%)

$MSCI (+0.83%)

$MC (-0.62%)

$BKNG (+0.36%)

$SPGI (+0.36%)

$ADBE (+2.58%)

$NOVO B (-1.45%)

$AIR (+1.65%)

$CDNS (+0.4%)

$OR (+0.7%)

$IDXX (+1.77%)

$EL (+0.02%)

$FTNT (+0.98%)

$LULU (+4.74%)

$ASML (+0.39%)

💡 Core Investment Thesis

ASML holds a near-monopoly in EUV lithography, making it indispensable for advanced AI chips and semiconductor innovation. Despite geopolitical turbulence and tariff uncertainty, its record €63bn order backlog and technological moat position it for long-term growth. However, a 21% valuation premium and China exposure (25% of sales) demand cautious optimism amid trade tensions.

📊 Financial Health & Performance

Q1 2025 Highlights

• Revenue: €7.7bn (in line with guidance), driven by robust EUV system sales (€3.2bn of €5.7bn net system sales).
• Profitability: Gross margin of 54% (above expectations), net income of €2.4bn (ROE: 55.62%).
• Cash Flow: Operating cash flow of €11.36bn (ttm), though free cash flow dipped to -€475m due to customer prepayment timing.
• Shareholder Returns:
• Dividend of €6.40/share for 2024 (+4.9% YoY), yielding 0.96%.
• €2.7bn share buybacks executed in Q1 2025.

2025 Outlook

• Full-year revenue guidance maintained at €30–35bn, contingent on AI demand and tariff impacts.
• Q2 2025 forecast: Sales of €7.2–7.7bn, gross margin of 50–53% (pressured by tariff costs).

🌍 Governmental & Legislative Catalysts/Risks

Tailwinds

• AI Chip Boom: Surging demand for high-performance chips fuels EUV adoption (e.g., High NA systems for 1.5nm nodes).
• CHIPS Act Subsidies: Indirectly boosts ASML’s sales via U.S. fab expansions (e.g., TSMC’s Arizona plant).

Headwinds

• U.S. Tariffs: Potential 20% duty on EU semiconductor equipment threatens cost pass-through to customers. CEO Christophe Fouquet warns tariffs create "macroeconomic uncertainty" and may push 2025 revenue to the lower end of guidance.
• China Export Curbs: 15% of sales exposed to China; further restrictions could reduce revenue by €4.5bn.
• EU Regulatory Costs: Compliance with the Digital Markets Act may increase operational expenses.

💷 Dividends & Shareholder Returns

• Dividend Growth: Consistent increases (21% CAGR since 2019), with a sustainable payout ratio of 28.53%.
• Capital Allocation: Prioritising €6bn/year buybacks (2022–2025 programme) alongside R&D investment in High NA technology.
• Forward Yield: 0.96% – modest but growing, supported by €9.1bn cash reserves.

📈 Growth Projections & Valuation

2025–2030 Outlook

• Short Term (2025):
• Base case: €772.66 (3.4% upside); bull case: €970 (+30% upside) if tariffs ease.
• Catalysts: High NA system adoption (5 shipped in Q1), AI-driven capacity expansions.

• Long Term (2030):
• Price target: €1,690–€2,516 (120–237% upside) as EUV becomes standard for sub-1nm chips.

Valuation Metrics

Metric ASML Sector Avg

Share Price €747.07 –

P/E (TTM) 29.62x 25x

Price/Sales 8.39x 2.5x

Analyst Target €904.40 (avg) Range: €578–€1,100

Rationale: Premium pricing reflects ASML’s irreplaceable EUV technology, but tariffs could compress margins by 500bps.

⚠️ Key Risks

Trade War Escalation: 20% revenue exposed to U.S.-China tensions; tariff hikes may erode 2025 EPS by 8–10%.

Execution Delays: Customers (e.g., Intel, TSMC) postponing equipment orders due to semiconductor overcapacity.

Valuation Sensitivity: High P/E vulnerable if AI demand slows or High NA adoption underperforms.

Regulatory Overreach: Stricter EU export controls on lithography tools to China.

🎯 Investment Recommendation

Accumulate on Dips Below €700 (3–5-year horizon):

• Catalysts: U.S.-EU tariff resolution (potential late 2025), AI capex surge, High NA margin expansion.
• ROI Scenarios:
• Base Case (12 months): 21% upside (€904.40).
• Bull Case (2030): 20% CAGR if €2.5tn semiconductor market materialises.
• Entry Strategy: Buy below 200-DMA (€738.12); hedge with put options during tariff announcements.

Bottom Line: ASML is a foundational bet on AI and semiconductor sovereignty, but its premium valuation requires geopolitical vigilance. The €63bn backlog provides resilience, while tariff clarity could unlock significant upside. Monitor Q2 2025 bookings for demand confirmation.

Is ASML’s 29.62x P/E justified given its EUV monopoly and 55.62% ROE?

How will U.S. tariffs reshape Europe’s semiconductor ambitions?

Can dividend growth offset low yield for income-focused portfolios?

Data as of 29 May 2025 | British English conventions applied ("labour", "favourable", "centred")

Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Conduct your own due diligence. Past performance ≠ future results.

When I‘m screening markets for my investable universe I look for high-quality compounders with:

• Strong and consistent capital returns (ROCE)
• High and stable profitability (gross, operating, and FCF margins)
• Steady revenue growth over time
• Large market capitalization (mature, established companies)

In detail I’m screening for:

• Market Cap: at least $ 10B
• ROCE 3-Year Avg: ≥ 25%
• ROCE 10-Year Avg: ≥ 25%
• Gross Margin 3-Year Avg: ≥ 50%
• FCF Margin 3-Year Avg: ≥ 20%
• Operating Margin 10-Year Avg: ≥ 25%
• Revenue per share CAGR 3-Year: ≥ 5%
• Revenue per share CAGR 10-Year: ≥ 5%
• FCF per share CAGR 3-Year: ≥ 10%
• FCF per share CAGR 10-Year: ≥ 10%
• Consistency/stability of earnings (from max. 1.0): ≥ 0.8
• No more than 75% revenue exposure to one single country/market (eg. USA)

Here are my current holdings:

$MSFT (+0.78%)

$META (-0.1%)

$MA (+0.88%)

$BRK.B (-0.32%)

$AMZN (-0.07%)

$ASML (+0.39%)

$MSCI (+0.83%)

$MC (-0.62%)

$BKNG (+0.36%)

$SPGI (+0.36%)

$ADBE (+2.58%)

$NOVO B (-1.45%)

$AIR (+1.65%)

$CDNS (+0.4%)

$OR (+0.7%)

$IDXX (+1.77%)

$EL (+0.02%)

$FTNT (+0.98%)

$LULU (+4.74%)

Today I‘m sharing with you my main portfolio. This doesn’t include any ETF investments and crypto currencies / gold etc. since I want to focus my presence on getquin on stock-picking.

Read my 3-part portfolio strategy posts to get the full picture - here are just the main pillars of what I‘m doing:

• Long-term buy and hold (average holding time 5+ years at least)
• Focus on high-ROIC compounders riding secular trends (top-tier capital efficiency)
• High margins, strong FCF growth, large moats (7 powers strategy)
• Holding not more than 20 stocks at a time while mainly focusing on US and EU based companies

I like to divide my holdings into „core holdings“ (forever stocks) and „trend picks“ (2030 stocks) as follows:

Core Holdings (“Forever Stocks”):

• $MSFT (+0.78%)
  $ADBE (+2.58%)
  $META (-0.1%)
  $MA (+0.88%)
  $AMZN (-0.07%)
• 
  $OR (+0.7%)
  $MC (-0.62%)
  $RMS (-0.37%)
  $EL (+0.02%)
• 
  $BRK.B (-0.32%)
  $MSCI (+0.83%)
  $SPGI (+0.36%)

Growth Picks (“2030 Stocks”):

• $ASML (+0.39%)
  $CDNS (+0.4%)
  $FTNT (+0.98%)
• 
  $BKNG (+0.36%)
  $AIR (+1.65%)
• 
  $LULU (+4.74%)
  $IDXX (+1.77%)
  $NOVO B (-1.45%)

I use the 7 Powers framework from the book “7 Powers: The Foundations of Business Strategy” by Hamilton Helmer. It’s a killer framework for understanding why some businesses create lasting value and compound returns over time.

Each “Power” is a sustainable strategic advantage that lets a company generate outsized returns for a long time. I ask the 7 questions for each stock I am considering to buy.

1. Counter-Positioning

• What it is: A new entrant adopts a superior business model that incumbents can’t copy without damaging their own biz.
• Example: Netflix vs. Blockbuster. Blockbuster couldn’t move to streaming without killing its DVD revenue.
• Why it matters: Creates asymmetric pressure; the old guard is paralyzed.

2. Scale Economies

• What it is: Unit costs drop as volume increases.
• Example: Amazon, Costco. Bigger = cheaper = stronger moat.
• Why it matters: Hard to compete if you can’t match their cost base.

3. Switching Costs

• What it is: Customers stick around because switching is painful.
• Example: Adobe Creative Cloud, Microsoft Office, Salesforce.
• Why it matters: High retention = stable cash flows = compounding machine.

4. Network Effects

• What it is: The product gets better as more people use it.
• Example: Meta, Visa, LinkedIn.
• Why it matters: Leads to dominance, creates a feedback loop of growth.

5. Branding

• What it is: Emotional or symbolic value, not just functional.
• Example: L’Oréal, Hermès, Apple.
• Why it matters: Lets companies charge premium prices and keeps customers loyal even if alternatives exist.

6. Cornered Resource

• What it is: Exclusive access to a critical asset — talent, IP, data, supply.
• Example: ASML (EUV tech), Novo Nordisk (Ozempic IP), Ferrari (brand + heritage + team).
• Why it matters: If no one else can get it, you win.

7. Process Power

• What it is: Unique internal processes that drive efficiency, innovation, or quality — and are hard to copy.
• Example: Toyota (lean manufacturing), Amazon (logistics, culture of innovation).
• Why it matters: Long-lasting edge baked into the org’s DNA.

If I had to chose one, Network effects would be the most important one for me.

Here are my current holdings:

$MSFT (+0.78%)

$META (-0.1%)

$MA (+0.88%)

$BRK.B (-0.32%)

$AMZN (-0.07%)

$ASML (+0.39%)

$MSCI (+0.83%)

$MC (-0.62%)

$BKNG (+0.36%)

$SPGI (+0.36%)

$ADBE (+2.58%)

$NOVO B (-1.45%)

$AIR (+1.65%)

$CDNS (+0.4%)

$OR (+0.7%)

$IDXX (+1.77%)

$EL (+0.02%)

$FTNT (+0.98%)

$LULU (+4.74%)