tonies Stock Forum

13.11.2024

Allianz becomes more optimistic for 2024 + Siemens Energy expects further growth and raises medium-term targets + Shopify benefits from positive revenue forecast for Q4 + Tonies increases revenue by 21% in Q3

The insurance group Allianz $ALV (+0.72%) is becoming more optimistic for the current year thanks to strong business and lower catastrophe losses. The operating profit is now expected to reach 14.8 to 15.8 billion euros and thus the upper half of the previously targeted range, as the Dax group announced in Munich on Wednesday. Thanks to higher premiums, Allianz achieved an operating profit of a good 3.9 billion euros in the third quarter, almost 14 percent more than a year earlier. The bottom line for shareholders was a surplus of just under 2.5 billion euros, 22 percent more than in the same period last year. Allianz had to spend almost 650 million euros on the consequences of natural disasters such as the floods in Eastern Europe and several storms in Europe and the USA. In the previous year, however, natural disasters had cost the insurer more than twice as much.

The energy technology group Siemens Energy $ENR (+7.04%) is entering the new financial year with confidence. The company announced in Munich on Tuesday that sales and operating profitability are set to improve significantly in 2024/25. Comparable sales as at the end of September are expected to increase by eight to ten percent. Christian Bruch's management expects the adjusted operating margin to be between three and five percent. The grid and gas technology businesses and further improvements in the Gamesa wind power business are expected to contribute to this. However, Siemens Energy is again expecting a billion-euro loss for the division. Analysts have so far put the margin at 4.2 percent. In the medium term, Siemens Energy was more optimistic than before and raised its targets for fiscal year 2027/28.

Shopify $SHOP (+7.76%) benefits from positive sales forecast for Q4:

• Shopify's US-listed shares are up 14.2% to $102.79 in pre-market trading.
• Shopify forecasts Q4 revenue growth in the mid to high twentieth percent range, versus analyst estimates of 22.7% - data compiled by LSEG
• The company reported Q3 revenue of $2.16 billion, up 26% year-over-year, beating the estimate of $2.11 billion.
• Gross merchandise volume (GMV), a key metric, rose 24% to $69.72 billion in Q3.
• The stock was up 15.5% year over year by the last close

Tonies $TNIE (-1.25%) is on track to achieve its forecast for the 2024 financial year

• Group sales increased by 20.9% year-on-year to EUR 95.3 million in the third quarter, driven by strong international expansion, resulting in sales growth of 26.2% to EUR 242.1 million in the first nine months
• North America drives the strong momentum of international expansion
• Further expansion of product portfolio with new own franchise and new product category strengthens market leadership through margin improvement and target group expansion
• Appointment of Ginny McCormick as Chief Experience Officer (CXO) and member of the Management Board is another important step on the way to developing Tonies into a unique global brand
• The forecast for the 2024 financial year has been confirmed

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Cheesecake Factory USD 0.27

Paccar USD 0.30

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

22:05 Cisco Systems Quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Allianz | RWE | Siemens Energy | Ströer | TAG Immobilien | Deutsche Pfandbriefbank | Heidelberger Druckmaschinen | ABN Amro quarterly figures | Fraport traffic figures

07:30 Telecom Italia | Auto1 | Renk Group | Voestalpine | Alstom quarterly figures

08:00 RTL Group 9 months results | Siemens Energy | Ströer PK

09:30 Deutsche Pfandbriefbank PK

10:00 Porsche Automobil Holding Quarterly Figures | RWE | Heidelberger Druckmaschinen PK

10:30 Siemens Energy Analyst Conference

11:00 TAG Immobilien PK

13:00 RWE Analyst Conference

14:30 TAG Immobilien Analyst Conference

Economic data

• 07:30 FR: Unemployment rate 3Q FORECAST: 7.4% 2nd quarter: 7.3%
• 14:30 DE: German Council of Economic Experts (SVR), Pk on the annual report, Berlin
• 14:30 US: Consumer prices October PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy/+2.5% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy/+2.4% yoy Core consumer prices PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy/+3.3% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy/+3.3% yoy
• 14:30 US: Real income October
• 15:30 US: New York Fed President Williams, speech at Academy for Teachers Master Class
• 18:00 US: St. Louis Fed President Musalem, speech at Economic Club of Memphis event

14.10.2024

DAX with a new run-up to record highs? US reporting season could help + Tonies: A box conquers the world + 5 DATES that will be important this week

The reporting season in the USA and the ECB's expected interest rate cut on Thursday should provide fresh impetus for the German stock market in the new week. Billions in economic aid for China should also go down well with the stock market. The DAX could set new record highs. - The weekly outlook.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/maerkte-forex-zinsen/dax-mit-neuem-anlauf-auf-rekordhoehen-us-berichtssaison-koennte-helfen-20368031.html

Small box, big success: the interactive audio platform from Tonies $TNIE (-1.25%) not only makes children's eyes light up. The investors also have every reason to be happy.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/medien-ittk-technologie/tonies-eine-box-erobert-die-welt-20367911.html

5 DATES that will be important this week

• 1. ZEW economic expectations rise in October

The economic expectations of investors surveyed by the Center for European Economic Research for Germany are likely to have risen again in October for the first time after three consecutive declines. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires forecast that the index has risen to 9.0 (September: 3.6) points. The situation assessment index is expected to rise to 84.3 (minus 84.5) points. The Sentix economic index surveyed among the same group of people has also risen.

>>> Tuesday, 15.10.2024; 11:00

• 2. investment banking gives US institutions a boost

According to JP Morgan $JPM (+1.21%) and Wells Fargo $WFC (+1.11%) the other major US banks present their figures for the third quarter. In particular Morgan Stanley $MS (+0.79%) and Goldman Sachs $GS (+0.81%) with their relatively large investment banks, are likely to benefit from the fact that activity on Wall Street has picked up again. The universal banks Citigroup $C (+0.45%) and Bank of America $BAC (+0.63%) will also feel this. However, they are also noticing the waning tailwind in the interest-bearing business.

>>> Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup (Tuesday), Goldman Sachs (Wednesday)

• Wells Fargo reported an 11% drop in third-quarter profit to USD 5.1 billion, but beat analysts' expectations due to higher revenues at the investment bank. This led to a rise in the stock in pre-market trading, indicating a positive market reaction despite the earnings decline.
• JPMorgan Chase exceeded analysts' expectations in the third quarter with a profit of 12.9 billion US dollars, which led to a rise in the share price in pre-market trading. This strong increase in earnings compensated for higher loan loss provisions and could have a positive impact on the share price.

• 3. focus at Sartorius is on the outlook

Sartorius $SRT (-1.77%) is likely to have recorded a rather meagre business performance in the third quarter. Analysts' consensus expectations are for sales revenue to be roughly on a par with the previous year, but this is mainly due to a low basis for comparison and not yet a recovery in organic growth. The focus is on the forecast, which the DAX-listed laboratory equipment supplier lowered in July. Sartorius had referred to the high volatility and limited predictability of short-term business development and only held out the prospect of increasing demand momentum for the final quarter. The succession of Group CEO Joachim Kreuzburg, who is not seeking a further term of office after his contract expires in November 2025, is also unclear.

>>> Thursday, October 17, 2024; 07:00

• 4. the ECB takes an extra step downwards

The European Central Bank (ECB) will probably not be able to escape the pull of falling inflation rates and weaker economic indicators. Statements from ECB Governing Council members of all stripes and data suggest that the ECB will decide on Thursday to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent - a month after trying to avoid exactly this impression. Normally, central banks try to avoid such abrupt swings. However, one must give the ECB credit for the fact that it would only be implementing its promise to adjust interest rates to the data situation.

>>> Thursday, 17.10.2024; 14:15

• 5 China's economic problems are worsening

Economic growth in China could also fall short of official targets in the third quarter of 2024, write the economists at Bank of America (BofA) in a research note. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to slow to 4.6 percent in the third quarter after 4.7 percent in the second quarter, the economists expect. Beijing has set itself a growth target of 5 percent for the year as a whole. The reluctance of Chinese politicians to take major economic measures, together with contradictory political goals, is contributing to the downturn. Many experts are concerned. Analysts at Gavekal warned at a briefing that deflation is on the way and there is little sign that Beijing's efforts to stabilize the property market and improve consumer and business sentiment are working. For the rest of the world, China's worsening problems are increasing the risk of a global economic slowdown and putting pressure on commodity prices, with a focus on China.

>>> Friday, October 18, 2024; 04:00

Monday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Stock market holiday Canada | Japan | US bond market (US equity markets are open, however)

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Fraport traffic figures for September

Untimed: Volkswagen Pre-Close-Call 3Q | Bawag quarterly figures

Economic data

• 02:00 SG: GDP 3rd quarter FORECAST: +2.0% yoy/+4.0% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy/+2.9% yoy
• 04:00 CN: Foreign trade September trade balance Forecast: +89.80 bn US dollars previous: +91.02 bn US dollars Exports Forecast: +6.0% yoy previous: +8.7% yoy
• Without time specification: AT: Opec oil market report October

A question for all parents.

Do you have the box in your children's room and is it any good?

Is there any potential here?

$TNIE (-1.25%)

https://ir.tonies.com/de/

Good development in the expansion into the USA and finally a profit, therefore a buy.

Has anyone noticed what's going on at $TNIE (-1.25%) going on?

After it feels like everyone in my circle of friends has given or received something as a gift - let's give it a try 😁🙏

Let's see what the Christmas business does...

You all have Tonies and I have the stock. 😜😥