L'Oreal

In the end, you can only hope that you don't regret it. European shares in the summer sale.

Today I bought the last tranche of Carl Zeiss Meditec $AFX (+0,96%) today. The reason is of course that I am still convinced of the company, but nobody can say how long it will be before the share comes back to life.

It could probably go down even further, but I have decided not to buy any more from now on as the position is large enough and otherwise my risk management will no longer work.

Overall, I have increased my position size from around 1% to just over 3%, which already represents a clear commitment to a German company, which is known to be particularly volatile.

The same applies to L'Oreal $OR (+0%) here, too, I have finished buying with a buy-in of €365 and have reached a position size that is already approaching the 4% portfolio weighting. The shares will probably continue to fall for the time being, which I will simply have to hold on to.

I would now rather concentrate on other opportunities such as Thermo Fisher $TMO (-0,44%) where I have already doubled down this month. Here, however, I can well imagine buying significantly more if prices fall.

It cannot be ruled out that, if the market as a whole weakens, LVMH $MC (+1,45%) and $ASML (+0,18%) a first purchase could take place. With the four stocks already mentioned here (+ $NOVO B (-0,68%) ) mentioned here, I believe that the potential of Western European equities has already been fully exhausted.

It's just a difficult case. Europe is currently more attractive than ever before compared to the hot American market. Either you can seize the opportunity of the decade NOW and bet on a recovery of the European economy, then the champagne corks will pop here in two years' time. Or there will be a complete implosion of the European economy (and then the double-digit losses in the portfolio will be the least of our problems)

$OR (+0%) Meddl, guys! Rainer here.

Can someone explain to me why the share only seems to be going in one direction at the moment? In the middle of the year they had a strong half year despite the slump in China, and even if consumer goods demand has weakened somewhat, I find the current -27% trend difficult to understand.

Thanks in advance Meddl off!

Chart technology from the picture book

L'Oreal - Paris

Because we are worth it!

$OR (+0%)

Portfolio changes in November and outlook for December 2024:

The allocation of the savings rate was adjusted in November. The bond share was increased ($SGIL (-0,27%) , $IGHY (-0,11%) ) and individual shares reduced. The ETF share remains (small and) constant as always.

For December, an increased focus on $MC (+1,45%) , $MONC (+0,48%) , $KER (+1,04%) and $OR (+0%) as the luxury sector has suffered severe setbacks this year, many companies are therefore attractively valued and offer a good buying opportunity.

$ASML (+0,18%) has also fallen sharply, but is still very highly valued. The correction is therefore likely to continue for a while yet. Nevertheless, another small buy is planned for December.

$MBG (+0,35%) is included in the portfolio for personal reasons and is more of a "fun investment". The dividends are very attractive, but I do not expect any significant price gains.

$GAIN (-0,12%) The company pays high monthly dividends and should therefore generate a larger cash flow in the portfolio. As the share price has fallen sharply over the year, now is a good opportunity to get in.

So much for last month and the outlook for December. As always, I look forward to constructive feedback 😄✌🏻

I got in today at the 52-week low.

In my view, a quality share.

Maximum is 1.0:

Stability Turnover 0.95

Profit stability: 0.95

Stability dividend: 0.96

Stability of cash flow: 0.98

Debt ratio has increased compared to the last 5 years: 17.3%

Repayment period: 3 years.

Profit development: a positive return can be expected in the long term.

+This is not investment advice.

The price performance in % of the beauty shares in comparison.

The price development in % of beauty stocks in comparison.

Made the first additional purchase today!

What do you think of LOreal?

Hello everyone

I'm also making my first post 😄.

I hope you are all doing well.

My current buy candidates are:

$ASML (+0,18%)

$SSUN Samsung stock I never find 😅

$NESN (-0,01%)

$P911 (+0,19%)

I still follow some of them:

$OR (+0%) under 305€

$LIN (-0,21%) under 385€

$MCD (-0,02%) under 355$

$CVX (-0,01%) under 135$

$BAS (+1,2%) under 42.50€

What do you think?

What are your buy candidates?

Greetings from Switzerland.

Finally a little fall over the year, had been on my watch list for a long time $OR (+0%)

Loreal Q3 2024 $OR (+0%)

Financial performance

L'Oréal recorded sales growth of 6.0% in the first nine months of 2024, amounting to €32.40 billion. This growth was consistent both on an adjusted and underlying basis, although the company faced several external challenges, particularly in North Asia. L'Oréal continues to outperform the global beauty market, driven by its innovation and resource redeployment strategies.

Income statement

Sales growth in the different divisions and regions indicates a positive impact on revenues. The Consumer Products Division and the Dermatological Beauty Division showed significant growth, with the latter increasing by 11.3% on an adjusted basis.

Cash flow analysis

The expected impact of the French tax changes in 2024 and 2025 will affect cash flow, with an estimated additional tax burden of EUR 250 million.

Key figures and profitability

The company values margin protection and a steady improvement in the margin, despite increased spending on advertising and promotion (A&P).

Segment analysis

• Professional Products: Grew by 5.8% adjusted, driven by innovations in hair care and hair color.
• Consumer Products: Recorded an increase of 6.4% adjusted, with strong performance in hair care and makeup.
• Luxe: Grew 3.4% adjusted, with strong performance in fragrance.
• Dermatological Beauty: Grew 11.3% adjusted, outperforming the market, despite a slowdown in the US.

Competitive analysis

L'Oréal continues to gain market share in key regions and categories, particularly in luxury and dermatological beauty. The company is leveraging its broad brand portfolio and innovation capabilities to outperform competitors.

Forecasts and management commentary

Management is confident that sales and operating profit will increase for 2024 and is planning a beauty stimulus plan for 2025 to drive further growth. The company expects the global beauty market to grow back to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2025.

Risks and opportunities

• Risks: The challenging market conditions in North Asia, particularly in China, pose a risk to growth. In addition, the impact of the French tax changes could affect profitability.
• Opportunities: The acquisition of a stake in Galderma and the focus on innovation in dermatological beauty offer significant growth opportunities.

Summary and strategic implications

L'Oréal's strategic focus on innovation, market share gains and resource redeployment has enabled the company to maintain robust growth despite external challenges. Investments in dermatological beauty and strategic acquisitions position L'Oréal well for future growth. However, the company must overcome challenges in the Chinese market and manage the impact of tax changes to maintain its performance.

Overall, L'Oréal's strategic initiatives and market positioning point to strong potential for continued growth and market leadership in the beauty industry. My entry price would therefore only be around 340 euros, although I already have some investment via nestle.

Positive statements

• Sales growth: L'Oréal posted solid sales growth of 6.0% in the first nine months of 2024, reaching 32.40 billion euros, showing resilience despite external challenges.
• Market superiority: The company continues to outperform the global beauty market, driven by its innovation and the agility of its teams.
• Segment success: The dermatological beauty division grew by 11.3% on an adjusted basis, significantly outperforming the market.
• Strategic acquisitions: The acquisition of a 10% stake in Galderma positions L'Oréal to expand its dermatology solutions and leverage synergies in skin biology.
• Innovation and resource allocation: L'Oréal's focus on innovation and strategic reallocation of resources has enabled the company to maintain robust growth and market share gains.

Negative statements

• Challenges in North Asia: Sales in North Asia declined by -3.0% adjusted as the Chinese market continues to deteriorate due to low consumer confidence.
• Impact of French tax changes: The expected impact of French tax changes in 2024 and 2025 could affect cash flow, with an estimated additional tax burden of €250 million.
• Slowdown in the US market: The US market has slowed down, affecting the dermatological beauty division in particular, which saw a noticeable decline in growth.
• Pressure on inventories: American retailers have become more cautious about their stock levels, particularly in mass and drugstore markets, which could have a negative impact on sales figures.
• Delayed product launches: The recovery of the makeup category has been gradual, with new product launches delayed, which may have delayed potential growth.

17.10.2024

Adidas weak + Airbus cuts up to 2,500 jobs in defense and aerospace division + LVMH under pressure after figures + Nestle lowers annual targets + Nokia sees turning point coming

For the share of Adidas $ADS (+0,47%) fell by 6.3 percent after the sporting goods manufacturer raised its forecast the previous evening. The stock market criticized the fact that the forecast was now where the consensus of analysts had already seen it beforehand - and therefore did not provide a positive surprise. Deutsche Bank analysts pointed out that operating costs had risen by around 5 percent in the third quarter compared to a stable first half of the year. In addition, luxury goods manufacturer LVMH reported that the short-term outlook remains cautious, as it is unclear whether demand in China has bottomed out and whether growth in the US and Europe is accelerating.

Airbus $AIR (+0,13%) is struggling with huge losses in the satellite business and therefore wants to cut up to 2,500 jobs in its defense and aerospace division. The aerospace company announced on Wednesday that the cuts would take place by mid-2026. The Airbus division employs almost 35,000 people in Germany and other European countries. The locations affected are to be clarified at the end of the year following talks with the trade unions and works councils. Airbus mainly builds satellites in Immenstaad on Lake Constance, in Toulouse, in London and in Munich.

Disappointing quarterly figures from LVMH $MC (+1,45%) put the entire sector under pressure on Wednesday. Luxury and consumer goods stocks fell significantly. LVMH fell by 5.1 percent to 593.70 euros. Also Kering $KER (+1,04%) and numerous other stocks in the sector also lost ground. Negative analyst opinions also played a role for the French cosmetics manufacturer. LVMH continued its disappointing performance in the current year with these losses. The downward trend since the spring is intact, after the share marked new lows for the year and wiped out the recovery attempts of the past week. The French luxury goods group continues to struggle with subdued demand. In the third quarter, turnover fell by three percent, excluding currency effects and acquisitions and disposals of parts of the company. Analysts had expected slight growth of 0.9 percent on average. Overall, turnover fell by 4.4 percent to 19.08 billion euros. This is also less than experts had expected. The analysts at Goldman Sachs therefore spoke of a disappointment, although expectations before the report had already been cautious. The fashion and leather goods segment in particular had suffered from weak demand from China, but the spirits segment had also missed estimates. The economic environment for luxury goods remains difficult and the next six months are unlikely to be easy. L'Oreal $OR (+0%) recently lost 3.4 percent to 363.70 euros after JPMorgan downgraded the shares from "Neutral" to "Underweight" and lowered the price target from 390 to 325 euros.

The food group Nestle has lowered its forecasts for the current year following a disappointing quarter. Growth in the first nine months was too low to maintain the previous targets. The new CEO Laurent Freixe has therefore cut expectations for 2024 and the company now expects growth of around two percent. Former CEO Mark Schneider had recently emphasized that Nestle would grow organically by "over 3 percent" for the year as a whole, but this seems too optimistic. Laurent Freixe, who took over as CEO in August after a long career at the food multinational, has now rejected these false hopes and lowered his expectations for the year as a whole.

The network equipment supplier Nokia $NOKIA (+0,78%) is gradually seeing the turning point in its weak markets. "Net sales are recovering more slowly than we expected, but we are compensating for this in part with an improved gross margin and cost savings," said Group CEO Pekka Lundmark in a statement on Thursday. Signs of recovery are already visible in business with fixed-line and IP products. The market for mobile networks, on the other hand, is proving more difficult. In the third quarter, Nokia therefore fell short of analysts' expectations: in the three months to the end of September, net revenue slipped by eight percent year-on-year to 4.3 billion euros. Industry experts had expected more on average.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

07:30 TSMC quarterly figures

12:30 KeyCorp quarterly figures

13:00 Travelers Cos quarterly figures

22:00 Netflix quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 ABB | Nordea | Nokia | Essilor-Luxottica

07:00 Sartorius quarterly figures | Hella sales 3Q

07:15 Nestle 9 months sales

09:00 Pernod-Ricard 1Q sales

09:00 Sartorius PK

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Manufacturing orders on hand and backlog August
• 08:00 CH: Trade Balance
• 11:00 EU: Trade balance sb August FORECAST: n/a previous: +15.5 bn euro
• 11:00 EU: Consumer prices September Eurozone FORECAST: -0.1% yoy/+1.8% yoy PREVIEW: -0.1% yoy/+1.8% yoy PREVIEW: +0.1% yoy/+2.2% yoy CORE RATE FORECAST: +0.1% yoy/+2.7% yoy PREVIEW: +0.1% yoy/+2.7% yoy PREVIEW: +0.3% yoy/+2.8% yoy
• 14:15 EU: ECB, outcome of the Governing Council meeting Deposit rate FORECAST: 3.25% previously: 3.50%
• 14:30 US: Retail Sales September PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy Retail Sales ex Motor Vehicles PROGNOSE: +0.1% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 260,000 Previous: 258,000
• 14:30 US: Philadelphia Fed Index October FORECAST: 3.0 PREVIOUS: 1.7
• 14:45 EU: ECB, PK after Governing Council meeting
• 15:15 US: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization September Industrial Production PROGNOSE: -0.2% yoy previous: +0.8% yoy Capacity utilization PROGNOSE: 77.8% previous: 78.0%
• 16:00 US: Inventories August PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy