Hey,

September marks the end of the third quarter. I always feel like a lot happens in the fourth quarter. Winter starts, it’s time to put on winter tires, there are Christmas and New Year’s Eve preparations, the last few days of vacation are coming up, and in December I’m somehow always attending birthday parties anyway. So for me, the fourth quarter just flies by.

But let’s take a look at the performance first.

📈 Performance:

S&P 500: +2.90%

MSCI World: +1.89%

DAX: -4.03%

Dividend portfolio: -2.23%

My top and bottom performers in September were (Top 3/Bottom 3):

🟢 ($TXN (-0,6%) ) Texas Instruments +10.17%

🟢 ($PETR4 (+2,83%) ) Petroleo Brasileiro +8.83%

🟢 ($8001 (+0,17%) ) Itochu +8.66%

🔴 ($O (+1,03%) ) Realty Income -8.86%

🔴 ($HD (+0,59%) ) Home Depot -10.37%

🔴 ($MC (+0,09%) ) LVMH -13.96%

Dividends:

September 2026: €247.58

September 2025: €223.22

Change: +10.91%

Sales:

🟥 None

Purchases:

🟩 ($MCD (-0,1%) ) McDonald’s (€428)

🟩 ($DTE (+0,91%) ) Deutsche Telekom (€371)

🟩 ($MSFT (+1,48%) ) Home Depot (€261)

Savings plans:

($CTAS (+2,54%) ) Cintas (€50)

($MSFT (+1,48%) ) Microsoft (€25)

What else has been going on?

The heating bill is finally paid; the company deducted the repair costs, so the bill for the solar panel system is now a thing of the past. In September, I also took two weeks off, including a four-day mini-vacation in Croatia. That was really needed, since it’s been a year since my last extended vacation. The four days in Croatia were also very refreshing, and it was nice to be back there after about 25 years.

Other than that, not much has happened.

Things won’t get exciting again until October, when the next big vet bill is due. Before my vacation, my boss told me I’d be getting a performance-based bonus. I didn’t even know such a thing existed, but I was really happy about it. I guess that money will end up going toward the vet bill, though.

🥅 Goals for 2026:

I’m trying to reach €85,000 in my dividend portfolio this year. Currently, I’m at around €82,391. I expect to receive about €464 in net dividends this year (according to getquin). So I’m still about €2,500 short. That’s definitely going to be a real challenge. Maybe the last few months will go better for me again—then it should be doable.

If you enjoyed this post and would like to read more like it, feel free to follow me;

if you’re not interested, feel free to scroll past or use the block feature.

Tomorrow (to be released on October 12 after the market closes $MC (+0,09%) the Q3 earnings report. Since I’m already invested, I’m less interested in the short-term price reaction than in whether a sustainable recovery is on the horizon.

My key watchouts:

China: Will the recovery in demand continue?

Middle East: How significantly are geopolitical tensions affecting consumption and tourism?

U.S.: Will demand remain stable, or will we see further weakness?

Fashion & Leather Goods: Will Louis Vuitton and Dior return to a sustainable growth trend?

Margins: Will profitability improve sustainably, or will the pressure persist?

For me, what matters less is a single strong quarter, but rather whether $MC (+0,09%) can grow organically again without sacrificing margins or the positioning of its brands.

~ Not investment advice ~

$MC (+0,09%)
$JPM (+0,8%)
$GS (-0,08%)
$C (+1,01%)
$UNH (-0,83%)
$JNJ (+0,89%)
$DPZ (+0%)
$WFC (+0,63%)
$ASML (-1,2%)
$BAC (+1,89%)
$BLK (+2,27%)
$MS (+0,21%)
$STT (+0,77%)
$TSM (-1,05%)
$IBKR (+1,18%)
$SU (-1,07%)

$EL (-0,73%)

$MC (+0,09%)

Analysis & Comparison: LVMH vs. EssilorLuxottica

Both companies are absolute heavyweights in the European (particularly French) stock market and global giants, but they serve completely different consumer sectors: LVMH (luxury goods & lifestyle) and EssilorLuxottica (eyewear & optical products).

Here is a detailed comparison of the two business models, their growth drivers, and their investment profiles:

1. Business Model & Brand Portfolio

LVMH (Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton):

Focus: A diversified luxury goods empire across five main segments: Fashion & Leather Goods (including Louis Vuitton, Dior), Watches & Jewelry (Tiffany & Co., Bulgari), Perfumes & Cosmetics (Sephora, Guerlain), Wines & Spirits (Moët & Chandon, Hennessy), and Selective Retailing.

Strength: Extremely strong, emotional brands with high pricing power. LVMH benefits from the global desire for status, exclusivity, and experiential consumption.

EssilorLuxottica:

Focus: Vertically integrated global market leader in eyewear. The portfolio ranges from world-renowned eyeglass frames and sunglasses (brands such as Ray-Ban, Oakley, and Persol as well as licensed brands such as Prada, Chanel, Armani) to high-precision eyeglass lenses (Essilor, Varilux) and major optical retail chains (GrandVision, LensCrafters).

Strength: “Best-of-both-worlds” integration. They control the entire value chain, from design and production to end-customer sales.

2. Megatrends & Growth Drivers

LVMH:

Key drivers: Growing global prosperity, particularly in emerging markets, as well as the rise of younger consumers (Millennials, Gen Z) who invest in luxury brands at an early age.

Cyclicality: Higher. In times of economic uncertainty or a weakening consumer climate in China, the luxury segment may come under short-term pressure.

EssilorLuxottica:

Key Drivers: Demographic change (aging societies with increasing vision needs) and the megatrend of screen-based work and digital media (rising rates of nearsightedness, or myopia, particularly among young people). Additionally, eyeglasses are viewed as a fashion accessory.

Cyclicality: Lower (more defensive nature). Eyeglasses and vision aids are medically necessary or essential for daily life, which is why demand remains more stable through crises.

3. Margins and Financial Profile

LVMH:

Known for industry-leading operating margins, particularly in the leather goods and fashion sectors. High return on investment, solid free cash flow, and strong brand loyalty typically allow the company to pass on inflation through price increases without difficulty.

EssilorLuxottica:

A profitable and steadily growing business with solid margins. The integration of GrandVision and the expansion of the direct-to-consumer channel (e-commerce and company-owned stores) are further driving efficiency and profitability.

4. Conclusion & Investment Profile: Which Stock Is Right for What?

Choose LVMH if you:

Want to invest in the ultimate, broadly diversified luxury ecosystem.

Are looking for a company that benefits from strong global brand loyalty and pricing power.

Are willing to deal with slightly higher cyclicality (e.g., economic fluctuations in China).

Choose EssilorLuxottica if you:

Are looking for a more stable, defensive business model with a strong foundation in medical and consumer-equivalent products.

Want to capitalize on the indispensable combination of vision health and global lifestyle brands (Ray-Ban & Co.).

Want to benefit in the long term from megatrends such as the aging population and the digital lifestyle.

I don't believe in a turnaround anymore.

>It's been over a year and nothing's happening. Dividends are for old guys—not for me 🙈

I'd rather buy BTC or ETFs and at least take a tax-free loss on NVIDIA. 😂🥳😇

The major Swiss bank UBS has fundamentally changed its stance on the French luxury goods group Hermès and downgraded the stock from Neutral to Sell. The price target was slashed from 1,695 euros to 1,168 euros. This significant revaluation marks a remarkable turning point for a stock that has long been considered virtually untouchable in the luxury segment.

At the heart of the analysis are concerns about the brand’s long-term exclusivity. According to analysts, Hermès has been steadily expanding production in recent years. Estimates suggest that approximately 65 percent of revenue in the leather goods segment now comes from non-quota or freely available bags. What was once protected by strict, artificial scarcity is gradually shifting toward a more conventional consumer goods model. As a result of this development, the brand is losing some of its absolute exclusivity.

According to UBS, this also has immediate consequences for the company’s business profile. The company is becoming increasingly cyclical and more vulnerable to economic fluctuations in the global luxury market, as the hoped-for rapid market recovery has proven to be premature. Accordingly, financial forecasts have been significantly revised downward. For 2027, the bank lowered its earnings per share estimates by 10 percent to 43.98 euros, which is noticeably below the broad market consensus. For 2028, an even wider gap from analysts’ expectations is forecast.

A key driver of the weaker earnings outlook is the expected pressure on margins. The operating margin is expected to decline to around 38.3 percent in 2027, which is about 100 basis points below the previous year’s level. This is due to lower economies of scale resulting from slower growth, higher spending on communications and marketing, and negative effects from currency hedging. Added to this is a permanently higher effective tax rate, which the bank now factors into its models. For organic revenue growth, UBS now expects only more moderate rates in the mid- to high-single-digit range in the coming years.

Despite this slowdown in growth, the stock continues to trade at a high valuation level. Based on earnings estimates for 2027 and 2028, the price-to-earnings ratio is estimated to be between 27 and 29 times earnings. From the analysts’ perspective, this valuation implies unrealistically high long-term expectations that are likely to be tempered by operational realities. The new price target of 1,168 euros is based on a combination of an adjusted discounted cash flow model and a peer-group valuation and signals further downside potential at the current price level. The bank cites unexpectedly strong product innovations as a potential risk to this pessimistic assessment, as they could still unexpectedly accelerate global growth.

​(Note: So much for a lack of exclusivity and waning demand—with the best will in the world, I simply cannot agree with this UBS analysis here in Zurich! After dutifully boosting Asian sales in Hong Kong just last month, I wanted to make my local contribution at the Hermès store in Zurich on Saturday at 5 p.m. The result: A sign on the door read “Closed due to overcrowding”—you simply couldn’t get in anymore! So I had no choice but to leave my hard-earned money with the competition. It was (in parentheses) absolutely packed there, too, but at least they were charming enough to let me in. In any case, there was absolutely no sign of a cooling consumer mood in Zurich at five o’clock sharp in the afternoon!)

$RMS (+1,16%)
$MC (+0,09%)

Hong Kong:

Zurich:

As I just mentioned, I used the capital freed up from the sale of some

$RIO shares (a 65% price gain plus an 8% dividend) to add to a position I haven’t touched in years. After $MC soared to unprecedented heights in recent years—even briefly making its CEO the richest person on Earth—it has recently crashed by about 60%. After waiting patiently, I now see an opportunity to make a contrarian move here.

Weakness in the luxury segment surrounding $KER and $RMS, weakness in China, supply chain issues, high oil prices, macroeconomic risks, a stagnating global economy, lack of demand in emerging markets, declining sales in the small leather goods business, “lifestyle inflation” surrounding the Louis Vuitton brand, and consumer reluctance across nearly all sectors… all of this, combined with the key metrics and the brands themselves, sounds like music to my ears!

With this purchase, $MC has now grown to become my fifth-largest position. I’m expecting robust long-term returns here and don’t rule out making further purchases.

To all skeptics, I recommend visiting the new Louis Vuitton store in Shanghai if possible (or 5th Ave. in NYC).

You have to experience this brand for yourself!