Summary after almost 3 years of investing.

I started saving/investing in the second half of 2023 at the age of 30. Up to this point, I rarely had more than €500 in my account (the 2 seconds it took for my wages to arrive before all the reminders and bills were debited don't count). To be honest, most of the time I had around minus €500 in my account. In a bright moment in 2023, I had the idea of buying a few silver ounces. In case the world collapses as an emergency currency and all that 😅. With €200 in my pocket, I felt like Warren Buffett when I drove to the nearest precious metal dealer. I even dressed up for the occasion with a coat and everything 🤣

Anyway, those first coins made me lick blood, so to speak, and from then on I started to educate myself. First came YouTube videos from finanzfluss and blocktrainer in which I heard the words ETF and Bitcoin for the first time. This led me to Gerd Kommer, the Etf Pabst. I devoured books and slowly began to realize that it might still be possible for me to at least work my way up financially despite having little education and few career opportunities. 3 years haven't even passed yet and today, on January 14, 26, I have €25,000 in my portfolio for the first time. Not much for most people, not much for me with my current mindset, but an unattainably high sum for the guy I was back then. 25k and debt-free is more than I could have imagined back then. Today I'm even trying to start my own business on the side so that I can invest even more. I would never have dreamed of that. I don't know if it's all just a nice illusion or if I'll still have to spend the rest of my life pedaling on the hamster wheel, but at least for now it feels like I'm on the right track, even if some people around me think I'll lose everything because it can't work out as we little ones aren't allowed to "grow up" anyway. I believe in it because I want to believe in it and, at least at the moment, I'm proud of myself and don't regret having made these decisions.

When a donkey calls, an epi must follow. And @DonkeyInvestor has called!

So here at last is my contribution on the 3xGTAA wikifolio certificate. It seems to have become increasingly popular recently. I would like to answer the most important questions here - to the best of my knowledge and belief.

1. what is the 3xGTAA strategy and what does it want?

3xGTAA is a rules-based momentum strategy that invests mainly in 3x leveraged ETFs of various global asset classes (GTAA = Global Tactical Asset Allocation).

You can find my most important articles on the strategy in this collection of links from dear @Simon_n
https://getqu.in/tiooe5/

Since 3xGTAA can invest in Bitcoin, among other things, the backtests realistically only go back to 01/2018. Here the strategy showed a CAGR of approx. 45% (after leverage costs) with a vola of approx. 35% and a max. drawdown (monthly basis) of approx. 20%. In the period from 2007-2017 without Bitcoin, the CAGR in the tests was approx. 35% and the maxDD approx. 35% (financial crisis!). The real-time test since 10/2023 confirms these key figures. Since then, the daily volatility has been approx. 2.3% (roughly like Bitcoin 1/2026).

The strategy is therefore very aggressive, highly volatile at all time levels. It is therefore only suitable for investors who can and want to withstand the fluctuations.

2. what is the 3xGTAA wikifolio certificate and what is it for?

As the strategy reassesses the asset allocation every month and rebalances if necessary, the historical turnover rate is approx. 100-150%pa. As each asset switch incurs PORs, the impact on returns is significant (approx. -20%pa, i.e. instead of 45%pa only approx. 25%pa). That is why I have set up a corresponding wikifolio in 5/24, in which the reallocations are tax-free. It therefore acts as a tax shelter. The wikifolio has been investable since 12/24. This means that any investor can follow the 3xGTAA strategy tax-efficiently and without any effort on their part.

Link to the certificate: https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf03x0gtaa

The strategy in the certificate in concrete terms: The certificate starts with a price of €100 and a virtual volume of €100,000. These are divided virtually according to the 3xGTAA rules, normally 33% each to one of the assets with the highest momentum in the asset pool. The remaining 1% of the capital is reserved for the deduction of running costs. The certificate price is calculated from the performance minus the costs. So if the virtual volume is €200,000, the certificate price is €200 less costs. At this price, the investor can buy the certificate on the Stuttgart Stock Exchange, which reflects the allocation of the Wikifolio 1:1.

Link to the Wikifolio FAQ page: https://help.wikifolio.com/article/16-wie-funktioniert-wikifolio-com

3. what are the costs?

Cost factor 1: Buying and selling costs. The certificate can only be bought via the Stuttgart Stock Exchange. This charges €4 per trade. Added to this are the order costs of your broker or bank. The latter range from €0 to €20 per trade. So find out before you buy! My broker tip below.

Cost factor 2: Ongoing costs. The certificate fee (= TER) is 0.95%pa. These are deducted daily from the performance at the end of the trading day. Advantage: Trading costs are completely eliminated.

Cost factor 3: Performance fee. For each new high (high watermark), 5% of the difference between the old and new high is deducted. 50% of this goes to Wikifolio and 50% to the manager.

Cost factor 4: Taxes. For tax purposes, Wikifolio certificates are treated as other investment income for the purposes of capital gains tax. This is 25% + solidarity surcharge = 26.375%. However, this is only incurred when the certificate is sold and not when it is reallocated within the certificate.

4 What are the risks of the certificate?

Risk 1: The strategy (3xGTAA). The underlying momentum effect has been proven over centuries on all possible financial markets. But it can collapse at any time in the short or medium term (momentum crash). Since the model only trades at the turn of the month, the drawdown can be fast and deep (e.g. 4/25: -30% in 4 days). A fall to 0 is theoretically possible if the underlying markets of the 3xLeverage ETFs all fall simultaneously by more than 35% in one day. In practice, this is virtually impossible due to various regulations.

Risk 2: The manager (me). I can be run over by the trekker at any time and fail as Wikifolio manager. In this case, the current allocation would initially continue undiminished. As Momentum does not normally stop immediately, this is not yet a significantly increased risk. After two months at the latest, however, the signal should be evaluated and, if necessary, reallocated. If I don't report at all for two months in a row, I strongly advise every investor to sell! As additional security, I give my wife the access data to the Wikifolio so that she can leave a message there in an emergency. She can't trade herself, as she needs her own access.

The donkey also fears that I could manipulate the wikifolio with malicious intent. This risk only exists if I deliberately want to harm myself. I currently hold over 640 certificates myself and am therefore probably the largest single investor. As long as this is the case, you can assume that I myself have an interest in good performance.

Risk 3: ETF issuers. Wisdomtree offers the most favorable 3x leverage ETFs. As these ETFs are swap- and future-based, there is no physical collateralization. If Wisdomtree goes bankrupt, you can only pray that a crumb of the insolvency assets will fall to you. But this will probably not be the case. The safest asset in the strategy in this respect is probably the Physical Bitcoin ETC.

Risk 4: Certificate issuer. The certificates are issued by Bank Lang und Schwarz. The bank can of course also go bankrupt. In this case, L&S has set up a trust fund to hedge the securities purchased for the Wikifolios. If the bank becomes insolvent, a trustee takes over and pays out the deposited securities to the investors. The risk here is manageable.

Information on collateralization: https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/l/wikifolio-zertifikate-besicherung

Risk 5) Broker: Your broker can also become insolvent. As the certificates are collateralized by the issuer, it should theoretically be possible to transfer them to a new broker. However, the certificates are not special assets.

Risk 6) Investor: The greatest practical risk is probably the certificate investor himself. The high volatility and the possible high drawdown can cause an investor to lose faith in the strategy at the very moment when its performance begins to return to the average.

5. tips on the certificate and so on

Brokers: Not all brokers offer Wikifolio certificates (none as a savings plan so far). The usual candidates Traderepublic and Scalable have no offer. Full brokers are most likely to have the certificates, e.g. Consors, IngDiba, comdirect, Sparkasse. However, the order costs here are relatively high at around €15 per trade. In my opinion, Smartbrokerplus, which I also use myself as a satisfied customer, is the cheapest. Here, the order costs for orders of over €500 are €0. This means that only the €4 of the Stuttgart Stock Exchange remains.

If you want to register there, collect a €50 bonus and be nice to me, you can use the following link to the current bonus promotion: https://www.smartbrokerplus.de/de-de/freunde-werben/?pid=User_invite&c=refer_a_friend&cr_id=0dfc7a35a58cc37c44cbda8f01bc9527d184147aa42f96aab0bfc2b912482771

Minimum investment: Due to the unfavorable cost structure, I would recommend to always invest at least 1000€. This keeps the trading costs at SB+ at 2x4€, i.e. below 1%. If necessary, you can simply accumulate this money and only invest every 4 months, for example.

Timing: There are always community members who try to time the most favorable entry at 3xGTAA. Based on my own experience and that of others, I can say: it's pointless. You don't time a timing model! Trade when the spread is at its lowest (11-14). That is enough.

Portfolio weighting: Due to the numerous risks, I would strongly advise against 100% 3xGTAA. The strategy is nevertheless well suited as an uncorrelated return booster for the portfolio. For beginners who have only had experience with ETFs and equities, a gentle entry at 1-2% of the portfolio is a good idea. This allows them to get used to the high volatility and gradually increase the weighting to the optimum level. I'll explain how to determine this quite easily in next month's update. Spoiler: It's somewhere between 10% and 30%.

More momentum strategy wikifolios: If you are interested in other rule-based momentum models from long-standing community members, I can recommend the following two wikifolios, which should be investable soon:

1. Strategic Growth Basket of @randomdude : https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf000stgrb

This wikifolio contains three momentum strategies with optimized weightings: 1xGTAA, 3xGTAA and LETSGO (2xSpytips plus gold).

2.US Momentum Leaders by @Krush82 : https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf19021902

This wikifolio invests in the top 2 momentum stocks of the S&P500 according to an optimized rule set.

I should have answered the donkey's questions about the 3xGTAA certificate.

Do you have any more? What have I forgotten? Bring it on, this is the place, now is the time!

And now may the momentum be with you!

Your Epi

Dear Community,

today I would like to talk to you about the curse and benefit of such a portal and why it helps me a lot to achieve my goals.

I often read about fomo or copy trades that people are tempted to make here. So today I would like to talk about how I think everyone can make use of the portal.

Of course you can get opinions here, discover pearls, because other users present them here analyzed in detail. And many people here also have specific goals. But for at least as many, the goals are not defined.

So why does the portal help me? I have very specific goals, not financial independence in 30 years or something like that. Everyone here knows my goal by now. And I have not only clearly defined the end goal, but also the path to get there, including the required return on investment and milestones. And of course, I've already talked about ideas like $RKLB (-5,69%) , $LMND (-2,7%) or even $GPCR have also benefited. But what really helps me the most is the transparency towards the community here that I have decided on. It disciplines me in my actions, I always and only pay attention to achieving the main and milestones. And because I always communicate all of this, I have even more incentive and discipline to make it work. I don't want to look like a visionary loser at some point. 😉😎That's why I'm going to keep it up and I won't turn tail if things don't work out. Because I'm sure some people here will have good ideas that I won't come up with.

And that's why I can only advise everyone, especially the younger ones here, to set concrete goals, even in stages, share them with the community and let us share in your successes and failures. I don't know of any other portal where there is as much concentrated knowledge about all asset classes as here, which is also gladly shared. And in the year I've been here, I've very, very seldom seen such gloating comments about failures.

And thank you also for your interest, your exchange, your reactions, which you show me again and again. It really supports my project.

So, that's it for today. I wish you all a great weekend.

#multibagger2026

Hi folks,

it's time for another challenge.

If you like, post under the #multibagger2026 your multibagger from 200 % performance upwards.

So that we can also get to know the companies, it would be nice to include them.

" Successful together "

I am looking forward to it!

I see this challenge as a nice competition to have fun in between.

Nobody wants to prove anything here.

We are all cool and successful investors.

I hope you see it the same way.

Your opinion on the challenge and whether you would like to see more in the comments.

I nominate @Multibagger
@SAUgut777
@Semos25
@Simpson
@TradingHase
@Klein-Anleger
@All-in-or-nothing

This morning it's not about new trades or stocks that I want to get into and that are interesting. Today I would like to share my thoughts with you on a topic that is more about the learning process on the stock market and why many people find it so difficult not to implement what is actually logical in reality. I know that there are of course many people here who know everything I write. But one or the other of you may find it interesting and helpful.

So what distinguishes an averagely successful investor from a very successful one?

From my point of view, it can be summarized in one word: DISCIPLINE!!!

To understand this, let me look back a good 25 years to the birth of the Neuer Markt and technology shares. That was my most active time. Compared to what I traded back then, it's a fly in the ointment today. There were days when I lost or gained 40% (the highest daily loss) -60% (the highest daily gain) of my portfolio volume. How does that work? I ask myself the same question today!

But the reason was probably that I lacked something and that was discipline!

Today I always trade according to the motto: Let profits run! Limit losses! You can often read that in my posts.

Back then, especially during the decline of the Neuer Markt, I was quick to take profits, but I kept buying stocks that were down 30, 40 or even 60%, in the firm belief that they would have to rise again.

And to make it easier, especially for those who are not yet so experienced here and are still impressed by the returns sometimes achieved here, internalize this motto. It sounds banal, but it's not that easy to put into practice. I can see this from the fact that I am often asked in the comments on my trades, how long do you want to hold? I'm 30% up, I'm itching to take profits.

The thought process is absolutely understandable. 30% is a lot in a relatively short time, I want to secure that! If you want to do that and are happy with it, you can do it, but on the other hand you also have to say, I'm down 15%, I'm limiting my losses now and looking for the next entry point. Because how else can you achieve a better return than the market? But many people then start the process of buying more and reducing the price of their entry, or even worse, it will go up again, just be patient. Internalize this: A stock that goes down 50% has to double afterwards so that you only get to plus/minus 0. That is not an option for me. I am explicitly not talking about my high-risk derivative trades, where losses up to a total loss can of course occur. But that is factored in.

So my advice is to set a fixed maximum loss target for your purchases!!! If everyone questions themselves and is honest, most people don't have one! I am never asked about this either. You don't need a fixed profit target! What's the point?

Build in a hedge right from the start, at least mentally, e.g. 20% down is acceptable to me. If your investment then moves in the direction you have in mind, you can raise this limit. If a value exceeds your desired profit limit of e.g. 30%, you can raise the hedge up to that point. From my own painful experiences, I can tell you that maintaining discipline downwards is more important than upwards if you want to be successful in the long term.

And make sure that your expectations match the risk you are taking.

I often answer questions in the derivatives area with the answer that I am aiming for 100%. The answer is often that 30% would be enough for me. Honestly, it depends on the risk you are taking. If I choose a derivative with leverage of 10, which is a very high risk, I expect the share to make 10% so that I reach my 100%. If I only want 30%, I don't take a leverage 10 product, I take one with leverage 3 and sleep more soundly because I am taking a fraction of the risk and need the same share performance.

PS: I sleep well even with leverage 20! :-)

If you have any further questions, please feel free to ask. Perhaps it will help one or the other to develop a more successful way of thinking.

Otherwise, I wish you all a successful day, no matter what your plans are.

And have a great weekend! Even if this probably wasn't my last post for today!

Your Chris