$BTC (-1,38%)

Bitcoin is switching back into rally mode. One thing in particular suggests that the cryptocurrency could set off on a new record chase.

(Philipp Frohn

17.05.2025 - 18:37)

Bitcoin is back. After the price of the cryptocurrency had fallen by a good 30% to as much as 75,000 dollars at its peak since the end of January, it is now back in full swing. Since its low point in April, when Donald Trump surprised the world with his tariff chaos, it has gained almost 40 percent in value.

Some market observers believe that it is only a matter of time before Bitcoin recaptures its old record high of just over 109,000 dollars from the beginning of the year. In fact, there is a lot to suggest this. Bitcoin ETFs have been recording increased net inflows again for weeks and more and more companies are starting to build up Bitcoin holdings - led by the software group Strategy (formerly Microstrategy).

Two developments in particular now suggest that Bitcoin could continue its new record run. Firstly, there is the chart technique. Investors try to make statements about future developments by taking past price patterns into account. At the moment, a pattern is forming in the Bitcoin price in which investors see the starting signal for further price gains: a "golden cross".

This is when the 50-day line crosses the 200-day line from bottom to top. The short-term upward momentum breaks through the longer-term trend - an indicator for chart technicians that prices will continue to rise. Just a few weeks ago, the opposite picture had formed in the Bitcoin price, namely a "death cross". However, the feared further downward pull was limited.

Bitcoin supporters are currently paying even more attention to a chart (see below) that is circulating on trading forums. It shows how Bitcoin and the global money supply are developing in relation to each other. The M2 money supply is defined as cash, sight deposits and short-term time deposits. The picture is clear: if the global money supply increases, Bitcoin will follow, summarizes Ha Duong, portfolio manager of the Berlin-based asset manager BIT Capital in the WirtschaftsWoche podcast "Bitcoin & Beyond".

The history of the cryptocurrency proves the theory right - at least in retrospect: There is a strong correlation between Bitcoin and the money supply. From May 2013 to July 2024, this was around 0.94. In other words, both curves move almost in sync. An increase in the money supply is followed by an increase in the price of Bitcoin with a delay of around twelve weeks. If, on the other hand, central banks or the banking system in general withdraw liquidity from the market, for example through higher interest rates, the Bitcoin price tends to fall.

Many market observers assume that this trend will continue. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, says that a comparison between the M2 money supply and the Bitcoin chart "still tells the same story: it's going up".

Correlation is not causation. The fact that bitcoin is now also following the money supply is therefore not a law of nature. However, if the lockstep continues, investors could possibly enjoy new record highs in the coming months. According to data from LSEG Datastream and Global Macro Investor, Bitcoin could reach the level of 110,000 dollars as early as June. That would be a new record.

Will Bitcoin now rise to 250,000 dollars?

What's more, a Bitcoin price of more than 140,000 dollars would be possible in the further course of the year. Compared to the current price, a price increase of a good 40 percent would therefore be conceivable. Portfolio manager Duong goes one better: "A price increase of 50 to 150 percent within twelve months remains possible."

This would correspond to a Bitcoin price of between 150,000 and 250,000 dollars - not only for reasons of monetary theory, but also because institutional adaptation continues to progress. In the event of a renewed correction, Duong anticipates a maximum setback risk of 30 percent. The correction that occurred after the last record high at the end of January and lasted until mid-April was also in this range. One reason for possible setbacks: high price levels tempt some investors to take profits.

"While equities are increasingly reliant on earnings growth, Bitcoin and co. react more directly to global monetary effects," summarizes Duong. Behind this is the narrative of Bitcoin as "better money". Central banks can print money and determine how much it is ultimately worth through interest rate hikes - Bitcoin, on the other hand, is unchangeable and deflationary.

The Bitcoin algorithm ensures that there will never be more than 21 million digital coins. In addition, the new supply of Bitcoin halves every four years. If demand remains the same or even increases, the Bitcoin price will inevitably rise.

The situation is different with conventional currencies, so-called fiat currencies. Since 2000 alone, the global money supply M2 has more than quadrupled - mainly because it is constantly being expanded due to constant refinancing requirements, says Duong. The USA in particular demonstrates this impressively: according to the International Monetary Fund, the mountain of debt is likely to rise to 37.6 trillion dollars this year and even to 46.7 trillion dollars by 2029. Compared to last year, this would be an increase of 6.5 and 32.3 percent respectively. Good conditions for Bitcoin.

https://www.wiwo.de/finanzen/geldanlage/bitcoin-kurs-prognose-diese-grafik-zeigt-wie-hoch-der-bitcoin-jetzt-steigen-kann/100128372.html

$ETH (-1,9%)
$BTC (-1,38%)

was there any news on crypto today that i missed and can't find or is it due to the poorer rating of the USA that it is picking up so much today?

Despite my focus on dividends, I came to the decision a few months ago through videos including Blocktrainer etc. a few months ago, I came to the decision $BTC (-1,38%) to hold assets for the long term.

I consider it important to invest a certain percentage of my assets in Bitcoin in addition to shares, real estate, gold, etc.

I'm not looking for short-term gains, as I made in 2021/23, but to have something in my assets if it should ever be worth millions.

Back then, I bought at €30,000 and sold at €60,000 because I hadn't yet understood the depth of Bitcoin.

What I also found very exciting was the practical use of Bitcoin, which has already become part of everyday life in other countries. I found this video from Africa particularly interesting:

https://youtu.be/6O0QpNbDLoQ?si=hL4_Mzd1E21-JATh

TL;DR like to roast my deposit, appreciate all opinions!

I always find the many posts here and reading various biographies very interesting, so I've wanted to say a few words for a while now.

Tried early, but started late

I am now 32 and unfortunately started investing seriously far too late, studied far too long, and with the larger salaries finally built up as much as possible and tried to catch up as quickly as possible. "Unfortunately" means for the most part the past calendar year, which is why I put a large part of my money into shares at already high prices and then had very little cash left in the crash to add to it. Fully invested, in other words. During the crash, I mainly reallocated and continued to fully invest what was left over from my monthly salaries.

Yet back in 2011, at the age of 18, I had a share called Facebook and a Starbucks share in my portfolio without much of a clue. I just wanted to know what my mother was actually doing with her shares and how it worked, and with FB and Starbucks I simply chose two companies that "everyone" uses/needs anyway. The idea wasn't that stupid, it worked, and after a short time I was happy about the small profit in absolute terms, sold the shares at DiBa despite the high fees at the time and simply forgot about shares for years - wealth accumulation, a word that wasn't in my vocabulary, the money I had was simply turned upside down as a young adult. Well, young me, just leave the shares lying around or, even better, take a closer look at them and carry on, it "might" have been worth it...

Of priorities and wrong horses

The years went by without any shares, but with lots of fast food and partying, but at least things have changed. At some point, I started to think about the future and wealth accumulation, first taking an interest in interest rates, and then the logical next step was dividends and shares. Unfortunately, it started rather haphazardly. As a student, I started investing small amounts, and of course betting on the wrong horses. Speculative lithium shares were particularly bad in this phase, unfortunately these were large sums even by my standards, from my grandfather's estate. That was bad. However, crypto was a very good horse, more precisely $BTC (-1,38%) and $ETH (-1,9%) which (as a computer scientist) I became interested in early on and exited several times with high profits, also thanks to domestic mining. It's just stupid that back then, in the last decade, I would never have imagined how cryptos would develop. If I had, I would have simply left it all, or at least part of it. You learn and you're always smarter afterwards anyway.

Fully invested - excessive, unhealthy, or simply good housekeeping?

So now I'm 32 - and proud of a portfolio that I think I've built up to a good size in a relatively short time. Which has given me other ideas for some time now. I'm still a long way from reaching my goal, but I have to get back on the "invest 100%" path, which has been completely contrary to my past for a long time now, and strangely enough, I'm finding it difficult to do so - something to reflect on. There are too many (supposed?) opportunities every day. So I simply could not $UNH (+3,56%) after a long period of observation yesterday and of course the savings plans had to run today too. I think I've always been good at budgeting, or let's put it this way, at least good at getting by with the money available to me in a perfectly timed way, but "indulging", not just in company shares, may become a little more prominent again. I don't go without noticeably in everyday life, I need very little, which I don't think is a bad quality to begin with. But I have changed a lot in the area of "consumption" compared to the past. I think it would be good to find a healthy balance. In my opinion, just as you don't just live to work, but work to live, the same applies to saving/investing. I actually read a post here on gq today that described exactly that and I could relate to it very well. So, reflection and taking your foot off the gas is allowed - no, it's a must! I am familiar with frugalists, but I never wanted to be one. I'd be interested to know if anyone else here feels the same way, or did?

Wrong decisions, mistakes... and (hopefully) the right conclusions

Back to the topic! (Not only) on the way to today's portfolio I have made many wrong decisions, as already mentioned, so I thought that a well-kept portfolio roast could do me some good. Other, new opinions and assessments can't be bad!

In particular, in the past I have often missed the opportunity to simply let profits run their course and instead dragged losses around with me for too long (which brings us back to lithium). A thought that I recently had again when I was thinking about when it would make sense to $HIMS (+5,51%) possibly realize, as an example. $PLTR (-2,3%) and $NVDA (-2,04%) are two examples that, like so many others, I naturally had on my radar, but they always seemed too expensive, the setback never came and I really missed the big rallies as a result. At the same time, I also get caught out by FOMO from time to time. So in both good and bad phases, I try not to just see red or green, fear or hope, but simply to evaluate what actually makes sense "from now on". Sometimes you realize a loss in order to try your luck elsewhere, sometimes you should let profits run, sometimes take them, sometimes endure the dip, sometimes be courageous and sometimes defensive. Easier said than done. I find it very nice and helpful to exchange ideas on this platform and how open and "yet" respectful it generally is. Of course, I will most likely never reach some portfolio sizes, but you can always learn something about how some people manage their portfolios, regardless of the absolute figures. You will always make mistakes, but at least you should deal with them correctly and draw the best possible conclusions.

Portfolio restructuring, planned investments / savings plans

And today? After some evaluation, research, regrouping and restructuring, I now have fewer, but still quite a few positions in different sectors, most of which are already of a decent and roughly balanced size. My medium-term plan is now to build up all positions to a certain target size. This is why I am currently running savings plans:

$MPWR (-0,93%)

$AVGO (-3,84%)

$ISRG (-0,35%)

$DXCM (-1,23%)

$DHR (+2,24%)

$ALV (+0,79%)

$9988 (-1,46%)

$BRK.B (+0,55%)

$APH (+0,22%)

$MELI (-0,9%)

$BLK (-1,12%)

$RSG (+0,84%)

$DGE (+0,5%)

$VKTX (+1,24%)

ETF/ETC:

$UBU7 (-0,7%)

$EWG2 (-0,6%)

Partly with small weekly amounts, until enough cash is available to fill the target position evenly. With $AVGO (-3,84%) for example, there is not much left. Also $BRK.B (+0,55%) / $APH (+0,22%) and others are already approaching the target. In some cases with somewhat larger sums for still small but prioritized positions, until opportunities and/or resources for individual purchases arise, such as the $ALV (+0,79%) and $RSG (+0,84%) should be mentioned here, as well as $DGE (+0,5%) as a turnaround candidate.

Once the aforementioned positions are full, I would like to turn my attention to the more defensive candidates that are already in the portfolio but which I am currently prioritizing - $MCD (+1,05%) / $KO (+0,73%) / $CCEP (-0,06%) / $ULVR (+1,46%) and others - and finally increase the ETF and gold share in the long term.

$VKTX (+1,24%) is a bit of a gamble, as I have actually said goodbye to pharma - $ABBV (+1,05%) / $NOVO B (-2,45%) / $LLY (+2,51%) and $MRK (+1,35%) were still part of the inventory until recently. Instead, I decided to go with $DXCM (-1,23%) / $ISRG (-0,35%) / $DHR (+2,24%) on medical technology.

$BTC (-1,38%) remains a fixed value in the portfolio, while I $ETH (-1,9%) (incorrectly entered due to staking - around 0.4 shares or €1000) and $XRP (-2,15%) would/will sell at corresponding prices.

I still lack around €15,000 in individual stocks at current prices to bring all positions to the current desired/dream target. This will take some time, but is foreseeable. And then I would be really quite proud and happy "as things stand now"! In any case, I now feel very comfortable on the path I have chosen and, as I said, I have to stop myself from forgetting that not all money has to be invested all the time.

Savings rate

To put this into figures, I have averaged a savings rate of around €1500 over the last 24 months, with an average of €100 a month in dividends. 1400€ investment, that's about 82% of my monthly budget after deducting all "unavoidable" fixed costs including fuel and household, but not including consumption such as clothes, going out or vacations. Exaggerated, I can't say otherwise myself. But at least I have a good reason to step on the gas and get the compound interest going.

So what is all this for?

In the long term, my girlfriend and I dream of owning a property somewhere on the Croatian Adriatic, her homeland, and where I was able to spend many wonderful weeks with my parents every year as a child. A beautiful region that I consider an important part of my life, with many great moments and memories that may become even more. I hope to get closer to this goal "quickly" with the depot. The language is already halfway there! :)

In the long term, this would probably involve a little reallocation into value dividend payers, which should help with repayment. However, I would also like to lay the foundations for later distributions today, without neglecting growth. There is probably no perfect mix for this, but you are welcome to rate mine.

So, unfortunately I was once again unable to be brief. Thank you for reading, whoever has made it this far, and for your comments! I'm very excited and wish you all a great weekend.

I still don't have my one year hold duration, if you look around on YouTube or see the kind of videos, you naturally have your thoughts on should I sell, should I buy back in when it's on the ground but I personally find it very silly. Since November, I have converted a lot to Bitcoin. I'm still of the opinion that you should continue to hold on to Bitcoin. What do you think?

https://youtu.be/cS-r8CSnMyA?si=GX_BMyxPTK3i3YA8

$BTC (-1,38%)
$ETH (-1,9%)
$SOL (-2,93%)
$PEPE (-1,4%)
#crypto

https://www.scinexx.de/news/physik/physiker-machen-blei-zu-gold/

Gold price crashes. Bitcoin the only truly limited object. $BTC (-1,38%) to the moon (I'm sure there's gold there too)

Modern alchemy: Turning lead into gold was the old dream of medieval alchemists - now it is becoming a reality. The LHC particle accelerator near Geneva can produce gold by colliding lead nuclei. Up to 89,000 gold nuclei are created every second in the accelerator's ALICE detector alone. Over the years, this adds up to billions of gold atoms, as CERN physicists have determined.

The alchemists of antiquity and the Middle Ages had a great goal: they wanted to transform base metals such as lead into gold - the noblest and most imperishable of all metals. Many scholars tried to achieve this transmutation through chemical experiments, while others searched for the philosopher's stone that would make this so-called chrysopoeia possible. Even the astronomer Tycho Brahe and the natural scientist Isaac Newton devoted themselves to alchemy. However, none of them were successful.

No wonder: lead and gold are different elements that cannot be converted into each other by any chemical reaction in the world. The only way to achieve this is to manipulate the nucleus of the lead atom: if three protons are removed, gold can be created.

This is exactly what happens in one of the largest machines in the world: the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at the CERN research center near Geneva. Protons normally collide with each other at almost the speed of light in the 27-kilometer ring of the LHC. For a few weeks, however, physicists will also use the facility to collide lead nuclei instead. The main aim is to create and research a quark-gluon plasma in the LHC's ALICE detector - the cosmic "primordial soup".

However, in these lead collisions in the LHC, it often happens that the heavy lead nuclei just miss each other. Nevertheless, these ultraperipheral collisions (UPC) are not without consequences: The strongly positively charged atomic nuclei, accelerated to 99.999993 percent of the speed of light, generate strong electromagnetic fields that interact with each other during the close passage.

"The resulting forces can cause the electromagnetic dissociation of the atomic nuclei," explain the physicists from the ALICE collaboration. The result: the lead atoms lose some neutrons and protons - and the latter creates new elements such as thallium, mercury and gold.

Hello everyone,

I wanted to present my portfolio, consisting of three portfolios, and ask for your opinion.

I'll keep this as brief as possible 😃.

I started investing about a year ago with a savings installment of 250 euros.

Thanks to an inheritance at the beginning of 2025, I was able to increase my savings rate and am now "waiting" until the money is invested.

As I wanted to do something separately for my pension, I opened a custody account with SC in addition to TR and am investing there in the classic way with 70/30 in $SPPW (-0,62%) and $EIMI (-1,06%) .

With TR I save $IWDA (-0,68%) , $CSNDX (-1,36%) and also the $EIMI (-1,06%) (hence the large sum in the combined portfolio).

I had actually considered investing a little more riskily here at some point and adding individual shares.

I would like to part with the altcoins soon and just $BTC (-1,38%) keep them. The STOXX 600 should also be out soon.

My question now is whether it makes sense at all to save twice for the MSCI World and the Emerging Markets or whether I should simply hold one each, as I could then possibly invest more riskily with other ETFs or individual shares.

I would welcome constructive criticism and suggestions for improvement 😃

Thank you very much!

Take a look $IREN (+4,44%) that looks (also because of the $BTC (-1,38%)) looks very tasty right now! Will there be good figures tomorrow and will we finally emerge from a deep valley 👻?