Status: August 1, 2025

Everyone is currently talking about Novo Nordisk - and many are buying it after the massive price drop because the share is now supposedly "cheap".

But be careful: a price drop of -70 % can be a bargain - but it doesn't have to be.

At the end of July, Novo Nordisk collapsed after a forecast reduction by a further 33 %. The new price simply reflects weaker growth and new risks - not necessarily an undervaluation.

The crucial question:

How do I find out whether a share is actually cheaply valued - or whether the market has simply become more realistic?

There are several approaches to this. One of the most popular - and in my opinion the most sound for many investors - is the discounted cash flow method (DCF).

📌 Important:

• The model cannot macro events (interest rate shocks, recessions) or political surprises - such as a sudden price cap on 🍊 medicines.
• A sharp fall in prices can trigger a short-term technical countermovement (rebound) in the short term - this can be interesting for traders. But for long-term investors, the decisive factor is whether the share is fundamentally is undervalued.

💡 Why DCF?

DCF analysis is so popular because it not only looks at current key figures such as P/E ratios or price/sales, but also evaluates the true core of a share:

How much money will this company earn in the future - and what is this cash flow worth today?

The model forces you to make all important assumptions openly:

• expected sales growth
• profit margins
• Investment requirements (CapEx)
• capital costs (WACC)
• and a long-term, realistic growth target (terminal growth).

Although this makes DCF somewhat more labor-intensive than simply "comparing the P/E ratio with the industry average", it provides a company-specific fair value. company-specific fair value instead of just a relative market opinion.

🤨 Sounds complicated?

There are ready-made spreadsheets for calculating the DCF where you have to enter current data manually.

It's easier with AI.

Particularly capable models such as ChatGPT-o3 or "deep research" (ChatGPT, Gemini, etc.) do not provide an infallible analysis (always double check), but they do research the necessary data for you.

✏️ DIY-Prompt (Disclaimer: Can produce widely varying results - I am working on a more detailed prompt with more clearly structured specifications)

"Calculate a 5-year DCF for [ticker] based on the latest quarterly figures, with WACC 7%, terminal growth 2% and show me a sensitivity analysis for WACC ± 0.5 pp."

🔍 Mini glossary for the prompt

• Last quarterly figures: Starting point for your cash flow estimate - real, fresh data instead of old annual figures.
• WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)The average return required by all investors - your discount rate.
• Terminal growth (g): Long-term "perpetuity rate", usually 1-3 %, so that the model remains conservative.
• Sensitivity WACC ± 0.5 ppTests how much your fair value rises or falls if the discount rate changes by half a percentage point.

📌 DCF analysis results of 3 examples:

📉 Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (+1,26%)

• Share price ≈ DKK 309 (-66% from high)
• Forecast 2025: revenue +8-14 %, FCF DKK 35-45 bn (≈ USD 5-6 bn)
• ⚖️ DCF fair value: ~ DKK 315 → practically fairly valued to slightly undervalued
• Braking factors: Regulated pharma market, price pressure, production capacity & patent dependency - earnings surprises more difficult than in tech.

Alphabet $GOOGL (-2,86%)

• Share price ≈ 190 USD
• Q2 revenue USD 96.4 bn (+14 %), TTM-FCF USD 66.7 bn
• ⚖️ DCF fair value210-230 USD → 10-20 % undervalued
• Plus points: Scalable advertising & cloud models, free pricing, network effects → slightly positive earnings beats.

☁️ Microsoft $MSFT (-3,8%)

• Share price ≈ USD 525
• Q4 revenue USD 76.4 bn (+18%), Q4 FCF USD 25.6 bn despite high AI CapEx
• ⚖️ DCF fair value580-620 USD → 10-15 % undervalued
• Plus points: Subscription margins, cloud scaling, pricing power (Copilot), even gigantic investments pay off quickly.

🧩 Core takeaways

• Share price decline alone does not make anything cheap. Novo Nordisk fell sharply, but is now only fairly valued - not a sell-off.
• Tech can be attractive despite high share prices. Alphabet & Microsoft are still trading below their intrinsic value because enormous cash flows support growth.
• DCF brings clarity. Only when market price is significantly below DCF fair value is and you have a margin of safety then "buy the dip" really makes sense.

Sources: Quarterly reports & press releases (Q2 2025) from Novo Nordisk, Alphabet and Microsoft; Reuters reports on the Novo crash; company guidance & analyst estimates August 2025.

Hello everyone. Apart from my actual custody account, I have set up a custody account for my son over the last few years. The savings rate there is around 5-6k pa. Since his birth

The Etf is only fed by dividends.

The aim is to pick companies that will survive and be profitable in another 14 years. Some future bets are also in there like palantir and drone plays.

Would you change the selection and put everything into an etf? So far I have achieved a pretty good outperformance with the portfolio.

Today is a very special day for me as an investor - my portfolio has exceeded the magic mark of +1,000 % total performance! 📈

What started as a small project years ago has developed into a real asset building block over time with a lot of patience, discipline and continuous learning. The current portfolio value is € 381,082.01, with a total return of € 194,631.88 - a proud result that I can look back on.

I have never bet on making a quick buck, but on long-term strategies, diversification and a clear vision. Of course there have been setbacks, but they are part of the game - the decisive factor has always been to stick with it and not lose your nerve.

💬 My learnings:

• Long-term thinking beats short-term hype.
• Less is more - quality over quantity.
• Investing is a marathon, not a sprint.

I hope this milestone motivates others to keep going and document their own journey. Here's to the next 1,000%! 🚀

💼 Portfolio update:

I've done it. 85 individual positions out.

Now: 1x FTSE All World ETF in.

📉 Previously:

- Analyzed charts for hours

- Quarterly figures binge-watched like Netflix series

- More nervous than a vegan at a barbecue at the slightest price drop

📈 Today:

- 1 ETF

- 4000+ companies

- Invested worldwide

- And I finally have time to drink warm coffee again ☕

Conclusion:

Diversification is cool. Simplicity is divine.

Hey everyone

There seems to be only one topic today:

"Did BYD ($1211 (-2,89%) ) made a stock split or not?"

And why do some of the charts look different?

I'll try to roll it all up neatly here, because BYD is currently taking two different measures at the same time - and this is causing maximum confusion.

What has BYD decided in China/HK?

On June 6, 2025 the shareholders approved at the AGM:

• 8 bonus shares for every 10 shares (from the profit carried forward)
• 12 capitalization shares per 10 shares (from capital reserves)

Ex date: June 10, 2025

Record Date: June 11, 2025

Credit note: Should have taken place.

This means that anyone who had BYD shares (A or H shares) in their securities account on this date will automatically be credited with these bonus shares. There will be no new fundsthe number of shares increases massively and the share price is adjusted mathematically. ADR and ADS should also have received corresponding bookings.

Why does this look like a split in the chart?

Because the stock exchange systems treat such bonus shares in almost exactly the same way as a stock split:

• The number of shares is increased
• The price is automatically reduced by the corresponding factor
• The historical price series is often adjusted retroactively

As a result the chart looks "smooth" and you do not recognize a large drop. I'm not a fan of the false representation - but so be it... Bonus shares therefore look like a split in the chart - even if they are not one in accounting terms.

Your portfolio value remains the same, only the number of shares has changed.

What about the split? (ADR)

Now comes the second construction site:

For the US ADRs (BYDDY / BYDDF) there are apparently additionally a real 6-to-1 split:

• ratio: 1 ADR is split into 6 ADRs (you get 5 new pieces for free)
• Record Date (ADR): June 11, 2025
• Payable Date: July 29, 2025
• Trading on a split basis: As of July 30, 2025

This only concerns the ADRs, not the normal BYD shares in China or Hong Kong

🔴! I could not find any communication from BYD, only from BNY Mellon, who issue and manage ADRs (service provider).

If I am wrong here, please post a communication from a (good) house bank. 🙏 To err is human :-D

What does that mean for you specifically?

• Do you have A or H shares?
• You will receive the free shares at the end of July.
• Do you have ADRs (BYDDY / BYDDF)?
• In addition to the bonus package (because the ADRs represent the shares) there will be a 6:1 split at the end of July.
• Deposit value for both options:
• Nothing changes in value in the short term.

So why the confusion?

• Many brokers simply write "share split" in the securities account because it is easier for the system.
• In reality, there are two different mechanisms:

Bonus & capitalization shares (China/HK)

Separate 6:1 split (only for ADRs)

• So there were bothBonus shares/capitalization shares and an ADR split.
• Charts look like a split because the number of shares and price are adjusted.
• Anyone who had BYD in their portfolio does not have to do anything. The new shares are added automatically.
• On Getquin, however, not everyone has linked the "correct" position in questions and posts.
• $1211 (-2,89%) is the SHARE
• $BYDDY (-2,76%) is the ADR (one of the ADRs)
• And unfortunately: here at GQ, the issue of "bonus shares" is also considered a split.

Hope that helps. 🙏👍

Happy Investing

GG

Sources:

Official HKEX announcement dated April 22, 2025, AGM resolution June 6, 2025

ADR note from BNY Mellon (Payable 29.07.2025, split 30.07.2025)