May tastes good with some German companies in the portfolio.

$EOAN (-0,86%)

$ADS (-1,23%)

$ALV (-0,03%)

$DHL (+0,56%)

$BAS (-0,63%)

Until recently, close business relations with China were considered a blemish - investors punished such shares with discounts. But now the narrative has changed abruptly: Following the agreement in the trade dispute with the USA, China is suddenly being seen as an opportunity again.

"Welt" has analyzed data from the US investment bank Goldman Sachs analyzed. Goldman has compiled several indices that are heavily influenced by the China issue and which show how much of a discount the values still have.

Some European tech stocks with high China business are also identified as potential winners.

Some examples:

$ASM (+2,65%) - ASM International | Potential +27%

$ASML (+0,64%) - ASML +16%

$SHL (-0,05%) - Siemens Healthineers +26%

$MC (-0,48%) - LVMH +15%

$ADS (-1,23%) - Adidas +19%

Source: Welt, 13.05.25 (excerpt)

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/aJmcZW7a5Hc?si=EfInHdx2BPyytiPp

Tuesday:

Both the IMF and the German government are cutting their growth forecasts for Germany. Another year without growth would be tantamount to a kind of worst-case scenario. It would be the longest period of economic weakness since the founding of the Federal Republic of Germany.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-00-prozent-bundesregierung-kappt-wachstumsprognose-erneut/100122772.html

Wednesday:

$ADS (-1,23%) Adidas is growing faster than its competitors. In the first quarter, the Group achieved sales of 6.1 billion euros, which corresponds to an increase of 13%. Operating profit also increased significantly.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/sportartikel-adidas-umsatz-waechst-in-schwierigem-umfeld-um-13-prozent/100123073.html

Thursday:

Surprising improvement in sentiment in the German economy. The ifo business barometer rose to 86.9 points in April. The increase compared to March was despite Trump's tariffs and other geopolitical uncertainties. Economists had therefore actually expected a decline.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ifo-geschaeftsklimaindex-stimmung-in-der-deutschen-wirtschaft-hat-sich-verbessert-a-8ce63530-d2a5-478b-8196-028a256a1149

$GOOGL (-1,07%) Alphabet once again exceeded expectations in terms of revenue and profit. Alphabet generated USD 90 billion in revenue in the first quarter alone. With earnings per share of USD 2.81, expectations were exceeded by 40 %. The advertising business in particular ran smoothly.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/19269360-google-mutter-alphabet-zahlen-knallen-rauf-aktie-nachboerslich-steil

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Wednesday: 14:00 Inflation data (DE)

Wednesday: 14:30 Economic data (USA)

Thursday: 05:00 Interest rate decision (Japan)

Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇

#inflation
#japan
#usa

$ADS (-1,23%)

Herzogenaurach - The sporting goods group Adidas is continuing its good run and has grown strongly at the start of the year. Sales and operating profit rose more strongly than expected. However, the Herzogenaurach-based company has apparently not changed its forecast for the time being in view of the uncertain environment. Last year, the company regularly raised its outlook with the presentation of better-than-expected quarterly figures.

As a result, Adidas shares climbed by a good two percent on Thursday morning, making them one of the top performers on the Dax . According to Barclays analyst Carole Madjo, the Herzogenaurach-based company had once again clearly topped expectations with its key figures. The strong profitability, even without Yeezy, is evidence of enormous brand strength. The Group continues to develop strongly in a difficult environment, wrote Piral Dadhania from the Canadian bank RBC. "This is undoubtedly also due to the weakness of competitors such as Nike and Puma."

Analyst Adam Cochrane from Deutsche Bank saw no signs of a slowdown in business. The operating result exceeded market estimates by twelve percent and sales were also better than expected. The surprisingly good figures should support the forecast for the year as a whole.

Adidas has so far forecast currency-adjusted sales growth in the high single-digit percentage range, with the Adidas brand expected to grow by at least ten percent. The operating result is expected to reach 1.7 to 1.8 billion euros - after 1.3 billion euros in the previous year. According to Chochrane, analysts already have almost 2.1 billion euros on the cards.

The company had based its forecast published at the beginning of March, which was already classified as "conservative" at the time, on a "volatile" market environment. In addition, the customs policy of the new US government was still in its infancy.

In the first quarter, Adidas sales increased by almost 700 million to 6.15 billion euros compared to the same period last year, as the DAX company surprisingly announced on Wednesday evening. This corresponds to currency-adjusted growth of 13 percent. Excluding the sales of Yeezy products in the previous year, currency-adjusted growth amounted to 17 percent. This was due to double-digit percentage growth in all markets and all sales channels.

The gross margin increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 52.1 percent in the first quarter. The operating result rose from 336 to 610 million euros. The operating margin jumped from 6.2 to 9.9 percent. Adidas also reported better than expected results.

After the sale of the remaining Yeezy inventories was completed at the end of 2024, the results for the first quarter did not include any contributions from this area. The final quarterly results are to be published on April 29. (awp/mc/ps)

https://www.moneycab.com/international/adidas-schafft-starken-jahresauftakt/

Subscribe to the podcast so that the bottom is reached soon.

00:00:00 Market environment

00:21:40 Nike, Adidas, Puma, On Holdings, Lululemon, Under Armor

00:35:50 Finding the bottom: Vix, Oil Price, Baltic Dry Index, Gold, Bonds / Bonds, CME FED Watchtool, St. Louis FRED Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements, COT

01:18:30 Chevron, Exxon, Occidental Petroleum, BP, Shell

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production A1JKQL

WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil A0KRKU

iShares MSCI World Energy Sector A2PHCF

01:29:35 China shares

01:44:25 Container ship shares

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/28RlbWBRC6xGUJ8AkHVcFU?si=w1t0GJtDTWOwNuUADqWoPQ

YouTube

https://youtu.be/QvUuYYmxk2k

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/84-china-aktien-%C3%B6l-aktien-sportartikel-aktien-containerschiff/id1695869891?i=1000703088147

$ZIM (-0,58%)
$MAERSK A (-2,55%)
$SHEL (+0,94%)
$XOM (+1,35%)
$CVX (+1,87%)
$BP. (+0,15%)
$OXY (+3,42%)
$ADS (-1,23%)
$NKE (+1,75%)
$PUM (-0,26%)
$UAA (+0,17%)
$LULU (+4,35%)
$WTI
$1BRN
$SPOT (+1,06%)
$AAPL (+1,31%)
$GOOG (-0,89%)
$GOOGL (-1,07%)
$BABA (+0,8%)
$700 (+0,95%)
$BYD (-0,77%)
#china
#zoll
#podcast

Slump in the DAX: investors are seeing red

There is a great deal of uncertainty on the stock markets at the moment, and this is being further fueled by US President Trump's aggressive tariff policy. On the last trading day of the week, investors have to accept massive losses in the Dax. Of the 40 companies listed in the leading German index, only two shares were able to record a positive closing price. The remaining 38 stocks experienced double-digit declines in some cases. Deutsche Bank was particularly affected $DBK (+0,93%)which fell by 9.77 percent, and MTU Aero Engines $MTX (+0,73%)whose shares fell by 8.11 percent. Deutsche Börse, Infineon $IFX (+0,99%) and Siemens Energy $SIE (-0,31%) also suffered losses of more than 7 percent. The Dax itself closed 4.95 percent lower at 20,641.72 points.

Trade war continues to weigh on the markets

Pressure on the markets remains high as uncertainty over trade relations between the USA and China persists. China's announcement that it would impose counter-tariffs on US goods has heightened fears of a full-scale trade war. At times on Friday, the Dax fell by up to 5.6 percent to 20,579 points. The MDax and EuroStoxx50 also suffered significant losses. There were significant declines in the banking sector in particular, which is heavily dependent on economic developments. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank $CBK recorded losses of up to 12.1 and 9.3 percent respectively. Volatility on the markets is likely to remain high as long as the uncertainty surrounding customs policy persists.

Slight stability at Adidas and Beiersdorf

Despite the general downward trend, there were also some bright spots in the Dax. The shares of Adidas $ADS (-1,23%) were able to maintain their position as the lone frontrunner with a plus of 0.54 percent. Symrise $SY1 (-0,78%) and Beiersdorf $BEI (-1,05%) also remained relatively stable, with Symrise recording a minimal gain of 0.01%, while Beiersdorf fell by 0.37%. Investors are hoping that the negative spiral of tariffs and counter-tariffs can be halted through negotiations, but the uncertainties remain and could continue to weigh on the markets.

Sources:

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Das-sind-die-groessten-Verlierer-im-Dax-article25682125.html

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Dax-schmiert-ab-US-Zoelle-China-Zoelle-und-jetzt-article25681044.html

Which Dax shares do you have in your portfolio?

Source: https://t.co/1KCO9l8ZsE

#dax
#dividend
#dividende
#dividends

$ADS (-1,23%)
$AIR (+1,86%)
$ALV (-0,03%)
$BAS (-0,63%)
$BAYN (-0,32%)
$BMW (+0,96%)
$BEI (-1,05%)

Puma is facing an exciting change in leadership. Arthur Hoeld, who until last year was Head of Sales at Adidas $ADS (-1,23%) will take over as the new Managing Director on July 1. He succeeds Arne Freundt, who is leaving the company. Matthias Bäumer, previously responsible for the team sports division, will be appointed to the Executive Board as Head of Sales with retroactive effect from April 1. Heloise Temple-Boyer, Chairwoman of the Supervisory Board, is convinced that Hoeld will lead the company into a new phase of growth with his strategic vision and clear focus on the Puma brand. His aim is to focus the brand more strongly on "authenticity in sport". However, his time at Adidas was not without controversy, ending abruptly and resulting in a severance payment of 4.4 million euros.

In the USA, President Donald Trump's announcement caused massive turbulence on the markets. The Japanese Nikkei share index recorded a dramatic fall of over four percent on Thursday morning, sending it to an eight-month low. This development is closely linked to Trump's plans to impose new counter-tariffs on Japanese goods, which include a 24% tariff burden. In early trading, the Nikkei fell by as much as 4.6 percent and traded at 34,102.00 points for the first time since August 7. The broader Topix also followed this downward trend and lost up to 4.3 percent. In the midst of this uncertainty and market instability, the price of gold rose to a record high, as investors often turn to gold as a safe haven in times of crisis.

Sources:

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/puma-fuehrungswechsel-arne-freundt-geht-arthur-hoeld-kommt-a-e323eced-2472-4cc5-8a0c-1f203b5dc9ab

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/donald-trumps-zoelle-nikkei-bricht-ein-goldpreis-steigt-auf-rekordhoch-a-4d5f69cf-15dc-4e80-b1c9-f87c82319f04

$ADS (-1,23%) down 9% today due to Trump's tariffs on Vietnam 🇻🇳 China 🇨🇳 and Cambodia 🇰🇭

Is this a nice discount campaign to get in there?

Adidas P/E ratio is, however, far above those of $NKE (+1,75%) and $PUM (-0,26%) which indicates overvaluation.

What is your assessment of the share?

Hello my dears,

again and again I see here the requests for the largest sporting goods manufacturer in the world

nike $NKE (+1,75%) .

But let's take a look at who has won the performance race historically. Then we discover a very surprising picture. And we can even discover a tenbagger in the 5-year view. Which would be by far the Japanese sporting goods manufacturer Asics $7936 (-1,08%) would be.

5-year performance

Asics +1078.79%

Anta +84.53%

Adidas. +27,55%

Nike. +1,72%

The other three manufacturers lag far behind.

$ADS (-1,23%)
$2020 (+0,57%)
$NKE (+1,75%)

But that was in the past, so I have listed the multiples in an Excel file for comparison.

Here I notice that Adidas is ahead in terms of earnings growth, and is therefore even below Nike in terms of the forward P/E ratio. Although the current P/E ratio for Adidas is the highest and would not be a buying argument for many.

I am impressed by the high EBIT margin of the Chinese manufacturer Anta, which has managed to catch up with adidas in terms of profit despite lower sales.

Of course, this immediately raises the question of the working conditions under which production may take place here. But that would probably be a separate topic.

My dears, which is your favorite, perhaps you will now shuffle the cards again. And would anyone have expected this performance from the Japanese, will it perhaps continue here?

Your opinion is very important to me, let's discuss.