Adidas
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128
Quarterly figures 27.04-01.05.26
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Mercedes could hurt...
Strong dividend season ahead💶
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Type here if you like collecting dividends: https://shorturl.at/83W8R
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New purchase
$ADS (-1,88%) at a 3-year low.
Here's Raketentoni from the test pit again! 🔧 You've stung the wasp's nest of the day. Adidas ($ADS) is currently trading at just under 137 euros and has taken a real beating today (early March 2026) - down almost 8% in one day.
I drove the car straight onto the lifting platform. Here's the TÜV report and my honest opinion on why it's crashing and whether we should unpack the landing net now.
1. why the deluge? (The list of defects)
There are two very specific reasons for the crash:
The outlook for 2026 is disappointing: CEO Bjørn Gulden finished 2025 strongly, but only forecast an operating profit of around €2.3 billion for 2026. Analysts had expected over 2.7 billion.
The Trump shock (tariffs & currencies): Adidas expects extreme headwinds of almost 400 million euros this year, primarily due to new US tariffs and unfavorable exchange rates. Added to this is tough competitive pressure from hype brands such as On and Asics. The market is mercilessly pricing in this uncertainty.
2. the reality check (formula test)
Let's take out the emotions and run the hard 2025 figures (sales of 24.8 billion euros, operating profit of 2.05 billion euros) through my filters:
Core Quality Formula:
Sales growth: currency-adjusted growth was a strong 13% in 2025.
Operating margin: Although this has improved, it is only 8.3%.
My score: 13 (growth) + 8.3 (margin) = 21.3.
Verdict: "Solid". The magic threshold of 25 for top quality is still not reached. The turnaround is underway, but we are not yet talking about a highly profitable money-making machine.
Cash flow & valuation (substance):
The cash flow is basically right (Adidas is just starting a €1bn share buyback program), but the valuation is not yet an absolute bargain for the current margin level.
The P/E ratio based on 2025 earnings is around 17 to 18.
At just under 1.0, the P/E ratio (price-sales) is historically favorable, but reflects the low margins.
3. the dividend check (income core)
Adidas falls completely through the cracks here:
Yield: they may have raised the dividend for 2025 to 2.00 euros, but at the current share price of around 137 euros, that's just ~1.45% dividend yield.
Verdict: My hard minimum requirement of 3.5% is miles away. The exception rule (low dividend okay with high growth and extremely strong balance sheet) does not apply to me here, as earnings growth will be massively slowed by the tariffs in 2026.
Conclusion & strategy
Is this a buy at the moment?
I don't currently have a TÜV sticker for a new purchase. 🛑
Adidas is not a "story without substance" (the exclusion rule does not fully apply as the margin is > 5% and sales growth is intact), but it does not meet the elite values of my core formula or even come close to the requirements for the income portfolio.
If you want to play the turnaround under Gulden, buy a bet here that the tariffs will not be as bad as feared. For my own money, however, I won't go for a falling knife with a single-digit margin.
Greetings,
Raketentoni 🚀
Key figures for your data sheet (price ~137 EUR):
Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E): ~17.5
Price-cash flow ratio (KCV): ~12
Price-sales ratio (KUV): ~1.0
Price-Book Value Ratio (P/BV): ~4.5
Dividend Yield: ~1.45
adidas with a strong year 2025.
$ADS (-1,88%) with record sales of € 24.8 billion (+13% adjusted for currency effects), gross margin at 51.6%, operating result +54% to € 2.06 billion. Profit almost +70%. Growth came from all markets and channels - Running and DTC particularly strong.
Dividend proposal +40% to € 2.80 and an additional share buyback of up to € 1 bn.
I built up an initial position yesterday and will buy more today after the share price has fallen by around 5%. For me, the operating momentum remains intact.
Quarterly figures 02.03-06.03.26
$KSPI (-1,22%)
$NCLH (-1,29%)
$STNE (-3,27%)
$BEI (-0,29%)
$SE (-2,65%)
$ONON (-2,07%)
$TGT (-0,75%)
$GTLB (-0,5%)
$CRWD (+4,26%)
$BAYN (-0,38%)
$WIX (-0,59%)
$ADS (-1,88%)
$AVGO (+3,65%)
$DHL (+0,16%)
$R3NK (-5,92%)
$JD (-0,68%)
$BILI (-0,13%)
$1913 (-1,01%)
$MRK (-0,81%)
$MRVL (+5,88%)
$GPS (-3,32%)
$COST (-0,7%)
$IOT (-2,34%)
$LHA (-1,2%)
PUMA after the recent rises - first all-clear?
After the heavy volatility of recent weeks, the PUMA share is finally showing strength again. The recent price increase is not only technical, but also has a fundamental tailwind.
The entry of Anta Sports as a new major shareholder (~29%) has restored confidence in the market. Even though it has been clearly communicated that no complete takeover is planned, the deal provides stability, imagination and strategic options - exactly what the share has been lacking recently.
From a technical perspective, PUMA was able to break away from the low and recapture important resistance levels. Momentum is clearly positive in the short term, even if the share is likely to remain volatile.
⚠️ What remains important:
PUMA is still in the midst of operational restructuring. The turnaround is not a foregone conclusion, but the market seems to be ready to award advance praise again.
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SHOULD YOU OWN ADIDAS IN 2025 AS A DIVIDEND INVESTOR
YT: https://youtube.com/shorts/pfY20NyX5uA
A few days ago we took a look a $NKE (-1,03%) , so lets check out if $ADS (-1,88%) is doing better in form of performance, dividend-stats and outlook.
2025 was a bad year for $ADS (-1,88%) if you look only at the performance of the stockprice. They had a negative return of 29% over the last 12 months. Other than that, the outlook is not too bad.
BUT the negative dividend-rate of -38% over the last 3 years is nothing you want to see as a dividend investor with a long investment horizon.
Let's see if $ADS (-1,88%) can turnaround the performance and the dividends in 2026!
What are your thoughts about it?
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