$BAYN (-0,75%)

$JNJ (-0,7%)

The ongoing lawsuits over allegedly carcinogenic talcum powder products have put Johnson under pressure.

A US federal judge has refused to resolve the matter via insolvency proceedings.

The financial risk at Johnson is high, new uncertainty in the strategic direction.

Johnson the new Bayer $BAYN (-0,75%) and 3M $MMM (+1,53%) ?

Bottomless pit, the share has been in a volatile downward trend since 2022. Once again, the upper boundary line was not broken.

Depot presentation - hope for constructive criticism and inspiring opinions

• Beginnings

Started with 25€ Q4 2021, now Q4 2024 my portfolio exceeded 50k for the first time, which was an amazing feeling for me not to be one of the people with mountains of Klarna debt. But to have built up something.

• Strategy & goal

My investment horizon is still very long, I'm 27 and still have plenty of time.

My strategy is definitely the dividend strategy. I want to slowly but surely have a constantly growing payout. So that I can draw on it as early as possible. After all, I'm living in the here and now and don't want to wait until I'm old to have some of the money. Finding the balance between living and saving is the art, I think.

• Self-assessment

I'm quite happy with my position, a few mistakes from the beginning like $MPW (+1,31%) or $BAYN (-0,75%) are also included. I lost a small amount of money on the Beer coin, but I believe that this experience has helped me to avoid making such mistakes in the long term. But also a lucky hand like $NVDA (-1,17%) 300%, or holding on to the $BTC (+1,08%) since 2022 make me feel positive. So far, however, my rational and conscious decision has confirmed me. 2000€ capital gains and well over 2000€ realized profits make me feel positive. An internal interest flow of approx. 25% (according to financial flow Copilot All Time).

• Diversification

I think my diversification is good, many strong stocks, a healthy amount of crypto, call money, ETFs, whereby the percentage should still grow. Physical gold is also included in a healthy weighting. A cash reserve of 5k is always available (emergency overnight money)

• Deposits

My cryptos and a few shares are with Bitpanda. (I started there because of a friend)

My main account is with Trade Republic (I'm very happy with this broker and have tried others that didn't convince me any better)

• Current situation

At the moment I think my German share is too high and would like to do something about it, as well as gradually clearing out the legacy assets mentioned above, which I don't believe in in the long term.

I am currently interested in $AMD (+1,26%) in terms of AI and turnaround. Stocks such as $UNH (-1,67%) in relation to FOMO are also worth watching. As well as $PEP (-0,1%) to better cover the consumer staples sector.

In the hope of constructive criticism of the overall situation and stimulating opinions on it.

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/YTVF-HXJi00?si=FNc7sd_atLPxwa4S

Sunday:

There appears to have been major progress or even an agreement between the USA and China. This is celebrated by the stock markets.

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/wirtschaft/usa-china-handelsstreit-100.html

Monday:

China and the USA can agree on lower tariffs. Instead of over one hundred percent, the tariffs in the USA are to fall to 30 %, for US products in China to 10

%. This regulation will apply for 90 days from May 14.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/zollstreit-usa-und-china-wollen-gegenseitige-zoelle-deutlich-senken/100127710.html

Tuesday:

$BAYN (-0,75%) Bayer surprises the markets positively as profits have fallen less than expected. The company confirms its full-year forecast of an operating profit of 9.3 - 9.8 billion euros.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/bayer-gewinn-sinkt-weniger-stark-als-befuerchtet/100126205.html

Inflation in the USA is lower than expected. Interest rate cuts by the Fed are becoming more likely, as are higher company valuations. Instead of 2.4 %, the inflation rate was 2.3 %.

https://de.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_ZON00DIVX:0/

Thursday:

Germany wants to meet Trump's 5% target in the future. This means that 200 billion euros per year are to be invested in the military. This statement by the Foreign Minister was subsequently qualified.

https://m.bild.de/politik/inland/bundeswehr-aufruestung-mehr-als-200-milliarden-euro-fuer-verteidigung-68258ecce2c76f0c587c8c73

Producer prices in the USA are also lower than expected. Economists had forecast an increase of 0.2% on the previous month, which turned out to be -0.5%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/preisentwicklung-us-erzeugerpreise-fallen-im-april-ueberraschend/100128654.html

Friday:

Japan's economy shrinks in the 1st quarter. The economy, which is particularly dependent on exports, was able to export less than expected. Domestic consumption also grew only slightly. Over the year as a whole, the economy shrank by 0.7%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/konjunktur-japans-wirtschaft-schrumpft/100128727.html

Saturday:

The rating agency Moody's downgrades the USA's credit rating. Instead of 'Aaa' like Germany, the USA now only has an 'Aa1' rating. S&P and Fitch have also already withdrawn the USA's triple A rating. A lower credit rating means higher interest payments. This is due to the USA's budget deficits over many years

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/usa-ratingagentur-moodys-stuft-die-usa-herab/100128951.html

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Tuesday: 08:00 Producer prices (DE)

Thursday: 10:00 ifo Business Climate Index (DE)

Friday: 08:00 GDP figures (DE)

Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇

#erzeugerpreise
#bip
#deutschland

Bayer surprises with stable quarterly figures

At Bayer $BAYN (-0,75%) the first quarter of 2023 did not quite go according to plan, but the decline in earnings was milder than many analysts had feared. The company's pharmaceuticals division proved particularly robust and posted a positive performance despite the uncertainties caused by US tariff policy. The adjusted operating result amounted to just under 4.1 billion euros, which was more than seven percent below the previous year, but did not completely disappoint the expectations of market observers. CEO Bill Anderson was optimistic and emphasized that the possible dampening effects of higher US import tariffs should not cloud the overall outlook. On a positive note, the forecast for the pharmaceuticals business was raised, even if the customs issue remains an issue. Investors on the stock market were delighted, with Bayer shares rising by eleven percent at times, catapulting the company to become the biggest winner in the DAX. Despite challenges in the agricultural sector, Bayer maintained consolidated sales at the previous year's level of 13.7 billion euros. Nevertheless, the company continues to face legal costs running into the billions, particularly as a result of the glyphosate lawsuits in the USA.

Commerzbank focuses on socially responsible job cuts

In Germany, Commerzbank has $CBK (+2,12%) has taken a significant step towards increasing efficiency together with the works council. Around 3900 jobs are to be cut by 2028, 3000 of which will be affected as part of the "Momentum" savings and investment program. The bank has set itself the goal of making this process socially responsible. Regulations such as partial retirement, early retirement and severance payments will be used. Sabine Mlnarsky, Chief Human Resources Officer, explained that these measures are necessary in order to achieve the goals of the program in Germany in the long term. Further details on the job cuts are to be published by October. Commerzbank has set itself ambitious targets in order to maintain its independence in the face of pressure from Italy's Unicredit. While the number of employees in Germany is falling, the bank plans to keep the total number of employees stable worldwide.

Sources:

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Pharmasparte-rettet-Bayer-den-Jahresauftakt-Anleger-erleichtert-article25764638.html

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Commerzbank-zurrt-Plan-fuer-Stellenabbau-fest-article25768871.html

UnitedHealth under criminal investigation for possible fraud + Borussia Dortmund continues to rise ahead of final match day + Scout24 at record high + Bayer wants further Roundup settlements and is reviewing Monsanto bankruptcy petition

UnitedHealth $UNH (-1,67%)under criminal investigation by the US Department of Justice for possible fraud in connection with Medicare

• UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is facing a criminal investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice for possible fraud related to its Medicare Advantage business, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• The investigation, led by the Justice Department's health care fraud division in New York, has been ongoing since at least mid-2023 and complements ongoing civil and antitrust investigations into the company, the news agency reported.
• The WSJ quoted UnitedHealth as saying that the company had not been informed of the criminal investigation and stands by the integrity of its Medicare Advantage program.
• An earlier civil case against UnitedHealth related to allegedly unfounded diagnoses is reportedly still pending before a judge, although a court-appointed special master has recommended dismissal of the case.
• UnitedHealth and the DOJ did not immediately respond to MT Newswires' request for comment.
• It is alleged that the company systematically upcoded diagnoses in order to receive higher payments from Medicare.
• Medicare Advantage plans pay insurers a fixed amount per enrollee, with additional payments for patients with more severe or more diagnoses.
• UnitedHealth allegedly took advantage of this and provided healthy insureds with non-existent or exaggerated diagnoses in order to collect these additional payments.
• But that's not all: the DOJ has also opened an investigation into antitrust violations.
• The investigation focuses on the links between the insurance division UnitedHealthcare and its subsidiary Optum as well as the impact of acquisitions of physician groups on competition and consumers.
• UnitedHealth is also alleged to have used faulty AI to process benefits.
• The error rate of this is said to have been 90 percent. As a result, a number of claims were wrongly rejected.
• UnitedHealth shares fell by more than 6.4% on Thursday before the start of trading.

Borussia Dortmund $BVB (+0,92%)continue to rise ahead of last match day

• The shares of Borussia Dortmund reached another high since August on Thursday at 3.84 euros.
• Investors are optimistic going into the decisive final matchday of the Bundesliga season and are banking on the club reaching the Champions League, which is so important both financially and in sporting terms.
• As rivals Freiburg and Frankfurt will meet at the very end of the season, thus taking important points away from each other, a conciliatory end to the disappointing season is quite realistic for BVB.
• The prerequisite is that Borussia win their home game - as convincingly as possible - against Kiel, who have already been relegated.
• BVB sporting director Sebastian Kehl's statements on squad planning may also have provided some reassurance for investors.
• "We certainly won't be making five or six top transfers - in case anyone thinks that," Kehl told "Kicker".

Scout24 $G24 (-0,09%)at record high - JPMorgan very optimistic

• Scout24 shares reached another record high of EUR 112.50 on Thursday.
• This means that the shares of the Internet portal operator have gained 32 percent in the current year.
• With a place on the "Analyst Focus List", they are now among the favorites of the investment bank JPMorgan.
• Analyst Marcus Diebel has raised his price target significantly to 141 euros and shows investors how, in the best-case scenario, even 165 euros could be possible.
• Namely, if the operating margin in 2028 is not "only" 66% as in the base scenario, but even an ambitious 71%.
• Diebel also emphasized the dividend potential that beckons thanks to strong cash flow.

Bayer $BAYN (-0,75%)wants further Roundup settlements and examines Monsanto bankruptcy petition

• Bayer is making a further push to settle lawsuits linking the popular weedkiller Roundup to cancer, while also considering a bankruptcy filing for its Monsanto agricultural business in case the settlement plan fails, according to people familiar with the matter.
• According to people familiar with the matter, Bayer plans to settle some of the class action lawsuits against Roundup in a Missouri court, where most of the lawsuits are pending.
• Given the difficulties in resolving the Roundup litigation in the civil courts, the German pharmaceutical and agricultural company is preparing a bankruptcy petition for Monsanto, the US manufacturer of the weedkiller, as another option.
• Bayer has hired restructuring consultants from the law firm Latham & Watkins and the consulting firm Alixpartners to examine its options, the informants added.
• Filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection would halt the lawsuits against Monsanto and pave the way for Bayer's share of Roundup liability to be resolved in bankruptcy court.
• Bayer and Alixpartners declined to comment. Latham was unavailable for comment at short notice.

Friday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Small expiry day

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• E.ON SE € 0.55
• adidas AG € 2.00
• Heidelberg Materials AG € 3.30
• Commerzbank AG € 0.65
• Starbucks Corp $0.61
• Tencent Holdings Ltd HK$ 4.50
• Amgen Inc $2.38
• Eli Lilly and Co $1.50

• Quarterly figures / company dates Europe
• 07:00 Swiss Re Quarterly figures
• 07:30 Richemont annual results
• 09:00 Michelin AGM
• 10:00 Hella | Volkswagen | Elringklinger | Jost | Wienerberger | Thales AGM
• 11:00 TAG Immobilien | Dürr AGM
• 14:00 Biontech AGM

• Economic data

01:50 JP: GDP (1st release) 1Q FORECAST: -0.1% yoy previous: +0.7% yoy

07:30 FR: Unemployment rate 1Q FORECAST: 7.5% 4th quarter: 7.3%

14:30 US: Housing starts/permits April housing starts PROGNOSE: +2.7% yoy previous: -11.4% yoy Building Permits PROGNOSE: -2.2% yoy previous: +1.6% yoy

14:30 US: Import and Export Prices April Import Prices PROGNOSE: -0.4% yoy previous: -0.1% yoy

16:00 US: Consumer Sentiment Index Uni Michigan (1st survey) May FORECAST: 53.5 previous: 52.2

As you can see, nothing is visible. So the shareholders of Bayer shares must either be a complete nervous wreck or this "price explosion" was used as a farewell.

I myself am and will remain invested (not a particularly large position of around 150 shares), but I think that the developments in the last few quarters can be viewed positively. The road is long and still very long, but to see this short-term recovery back to 0 in 2 days is really interesting. There seems to be no chance of any current breakouts. I knew that 10% was not sustainable, but it was surprising that everything burned so quickly.

What do you think?

Are there only speculators and traders left in the business or are there still believers? Or are you just waiting for the exit to limit the damage?

$BAYN (-0,75%)

Bayer shows consistent success

Bayer $BAYN (-0,75%) surprises with positive figures, despite the challenge of job cuts. On Monday, it was announced that crop protection production in Frankfurt am Main will be discontinued by the end of 2028, affecting around 500 jobs. These drastic measures are part of a comprehensive five-year plan for the Crop Science division, which aims to achieve savings of one billion euros. But the company is not letting this get it down: Things are going well in the pharmaceuticals business, with operating profit from the prescription drugs division shooting up by an impressive 13.4 percent in the first quarter. CEO Anderson, who is facing criticism from investors due to the delayed overall development, attributes this success to a well thought-out organizational model that sets standards in the industry.

Daimler Truck adjusts outlook

In the USA, the situation for Daimler Truck $DTG (+0,03%) looks less encouraging. The management duo, consisting of Karin Radström and CFO Eva Scherer, has revised the annual outlook for 2025 downwards. Instead of the original target of 52 to 54 billion euros in turnover, a range of 48 to 51 billion euros is now given. The reason for this adjustment is the new tariffs introduced by the Trump administration. This uncertainty means that freight forwarders in America do not know how their business will continue and whether they will be able to distribute goods from domestic ports. This has a direct impact on Daimler Truck's customers, who are now more hesitant to order new vehicles. The current challenges present the company with new hurdles to overcome.

Sources:

https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/pharma/bayer-aktie-schiesst-nach-zahlen-um-10-prozent-hoch-a-79ba5e34-bd91-49e2-a57d-03f9dc887e0b

https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/daimler-truck-senkt-jahresausblick-a-df303c80-b99e-4267-92f4-d754c6c0c439