Buying more Mercedes because I love the dividends. $MBG (-1,55%)
Mercedes Benz Group
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3G·
Car manufacturers and self-driving cars
Somehow, posts about $TSLA (-0,05%)
$MBG (-1,55%)
$VOW (-1,28%) and the assistance systems always seem strange to me, so I asked ChatGPT.
(Prompt: "self-driving cars Mercedes vs waymo vs tesla"
AI says:
Investor perspective:
Whether self-driving cars based on cameras will get approval in Europe for fully autonomous driving remains to be seen, because there is definitely a lot of criticism of the pure AI+ camera strategy.
It may work faster in America and Asia, where the media can be bribed even better and accidents are less relevant than sales figures, but in the EU a very large disinformation campaign would have to work against the will of the European lobby, which uses the expensive lidar systems.
Conclusion again from ChatGPT:
Tesla, as usual, has not unlocked another level on the launch date now, so they are still level 2, right? https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/autonomes-fahren-tesla-startet-robotaxi-dienst-mit-einigen-einschraenkungen/100135657.html
6G·
WAYMO: "TESLA WAS RIGHT, WE WASTED YEARS"
$TSLA (-0,05%) Waymo has released a new research paper that basically says this: if you want smarter self-driving cars, you simply need to throw more data and computing power at the problem.
That's exactly what Tesla has been doing for years - ditching traditional methods, building gigantic AI supercomputers and collecting data non-stop with their fleet of vehicles.
Corry Wang, who heads up the computing infrastructure at Anthropic, put it in a nutshell:
"Waymo was wrong. Tesla was right."
Badass.
If this proves to be true, Tesla could be on the verge of a GPT-3-like level-up in autonomous driving - while Waymo is just watching in the rear-view mirror.
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22 CommentiLet me help you with ChatGPT:
Tesla vehicles rely exclusively on so-called **vision-based systems**, i.e. cameras supported by **AI models**, to recognize the environment in their autonomous driving approach. This also works at night, for several reasons:
---
### 🌙 Why does Tesla's camera system also work at night?
#### 1. **High-resolution cameras with good low-light performance**
* Tesla's cameras are specially calibrated and have a high sensitivity to low light.
* Similar to modern smartphone cameras, they can deliver usable images even in low light conditions.
#### 2. **Processing with AI (Neural Nets)**
* The software also processes noisy or dark images using neural nets that have been trained to recognize objects in many different lighting conditions - including night, twilight, headlights, streetlights, etc.
#### 3. **Utilization of vehicle lights**
* The vehicle's headlights illuminate the road in front of the car and enable the cameras to detect important elements such as road markings, pedestrians or obstacles.
* Rear lights of other vehicles help the software to identify them correctly.
#### 4. **Infrared elements (passive)**
* Some cameras have some infrared capabilities, which improves night vision performance - although Tesla does not use active infrared or night vision cameras like some other manufacturers.
---
### 🚫 Why no radar or LiDAR?
Tesla deliberately decided against **Radar** and **LiDAR** because:
* Vision-only AI should extract all necessary information from image data in the long term.
* Radar in earlier versions sometimes led to contradictory results with the camera data.
* LiDAR is very expensive and, according to Tesla, not necessary if the AI is sufficiently trained visually.
---
### Conclusion
Tesla can also drive safely at night** because:
* The cameras can "see" enough with headlights and modern image sensors.
* The AI is trained to reliably process relevant information even in the dark.
Tesla vehicles rely exclusively on so-called **vision-based systems**, i.e. cameras supported by **AI models**, to recognize the environment in their autonomous driving approach. This also works at night, for several reasons:
---
### 🌙 Why does Tesla's camera system also work at night?
#### 1. **High-resolution cameras with good low-light performance**
* Tesla's cameras are specially calibrated and have a high sensitivity to low light.
* Similar to modern smartphone cameras, they can deliver usable images even in low light conditions.
#### 2. **Processing with AI (Neural Nets)**
* The software also processes noisy or dark images using neural nets that have been trained to recognize objects in many different lighting conditions - including night, twilight, headlights, streetlights, etc.
#### 3. **Utilization of vehicle lights**
* The vehicle's headlights illuminate the road in front of the car and enable the cameras to detect important elements such as road markings, pedestrians or obstacles.
* Rear lights of other vehicles help the software to identify them correctly.
#### 4. **Infrared elements (passive)**
* Some cameras have some infrared capabilities, which improves night vision performance - although Tesla does not use active infrared or night vision cameras like some other manufacturers.
---
### 🚫 Why no radar or LiDAR?
Tesla deliberately decided against **Radar** and **LiDAR** because:
* Vision-only AI should extract all necessary information from image data in the long term.
* Radar in earlier versions sometimes led to contradictory results with the camera data.
* LiDAR is very expensive and, according to Tesla, not necessary if the AI is sufficiently trained visually.
---
### Conclusion
Tesla can also drive safely at night** because:
* The cameras can "see" enough with headlights and modern image sensors.
* The AI is trained to reliably process relevant information even in the dark.
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1Settimana·
Danish army procures 1,000 Mercedes G-Classes
The Danish military is arming itself with new G-Classes. Up to 1,000 off-road vehicles are being procured, which we know from the Bundeswehr as the "Wolf".
New Wolf G464 replaces the old ones
The Bundeswehr is also gradually retiring its old wolves after more than three decades. Under a framework agreement between the Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support (BAAINBw) and Mercedes-Benz, up to 5,800 vehicles of the new G model (type 464) will be procured by 2032. The contract has a total volume of around 1.3 billion euros.
Details can be found in the report under the link.
www.auto-motor-und-sport.deMilitär-Auftrag: Dänische Armee beschafft 1.000 Mercedes G-Klassen
1Settimana·
Mercedes Benz share
Something that may have gone under the radar yesterday due to the conflict in the Middle East: Yesterday it was announced that Trump could consider raising automotive tariffs again after all.
This is depressing share prices, particularly of $MBG (-1,55%) which has a decisive short-term reason. But compared to the competition, Mercedes Benz is beating BMW and Volkswagen.
Why? You can find out in this video.
www.youtube.comMercedes Benz Aktie – BMW & VW kurzfristig stärker? Langfristig schlägt Mercedes sie alle!
6 Commenti
1Settimana
hmm so in the long term BMW is up and Mercedes sideways
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2Settimana·
Industry in Germany: 100,000 jobs cut | Northvolt's decline: a premature end
Industry in Germany: 100,000 jobs cut
German industry is facing a profound upheaval. In just one year, around 100,000 jobs have been lost, representing a massive decline in the sector. The automotive industry in particular, which includes Mercedes $MBG (-1,55%) is severely affected. Around 45,400 employees have lost their jobs here. There are numerous factors behind this trend: technological innovations, the shift towards sustainable mobility concepts and global economic challenges that are increasing the pressure on the country's industrial base. This development could not only jeopardize Germany's economic stability, but also have a lasting impact on social structures in the affected regions. The question remains as to how politicians and companies will react to this change and whether new jobs can be created in promising sectors.
Northvolt's decline: a premature end
In recent years, Northvolt, a start-up specializing in cell manufacturing, has attracted a lot of attention. With over 15 billion dollars raised in a single financing round, the company was considered the largest of its kind. European politicians were keen to promote cell production on the continent in order to reduce dependence on Asian manufacturers. Despite support from well-known investors such as Volkswagen $VOW3 (-0,89%) and Goldman Sachs $GS (+2,12%)who were betting on a revolutionary future, the company went bankrupt two years after a valuation of 12 billion dollars. This rapid decline not only calls Northvolt's future into question, but also highlights the challenges facing innovative companies today. The lesson to be learned here concerns the risks and uncertainties in a rapidly changing economic environment.
Sources:
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3Settimana·
Mercedes vs Tesla: A Covariance Analysis of Two Automotive Giants (2024-2025)
This analysis examines the relationship between Mercedes-Benz Group AG ($MBG (-1,55%)) and Tesla Inc. (TSLA) through statistical covariance analysis, covering the period from February 2024 through June 2025. Our findings reveal a negative covariance of -20.58, indicating these two automotive leaders tend to move in opposite directions, creating potential diversification benefits for investors.
Introduction
As the automotive industry undergoes its most significant transformation since the invention of the internal combustion engine, two companies represent different approaches to the electric vehicle revolution. Mercedes-Benz, a century-old luxury automaker, and Tesla, the electric vehicle pioneer, offer contrasting investment profiles that warrant detailed statistical analysis.
Company Performance Overview
Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBGAF)
Mercedes faced significant headwinds throughout the analysis period:
- Monthly Average Return: -1.17% (February 2024 - June 2025)
- 2024 Financial Results: Adjusted EBIT fell to €8.7 billion from €14.3 billion in 2023
- Return on Sales: Declined to 8.1% from 12.6% in 2023
- Key Challenges: Lower volumes in China, negative pricing pressure, unfavorable product mix
- Volatility: 4.64% monthly standard deviation
- Current Position: Trading around $58.97 as of June 2025
Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
Tesla demonstrated remarkable volatility and mixed performance:
- Monthly Average Return: 4.69% (February 2024 - June 2025)
- 2024 Total Return: 62.52% for the full year
- 2025 Performance: Highly volatile with dramatic swings
- Volatility: 15.76% monthly standard deviation (3.4x more volatile than Mercedes)
- Current Position: Trading around $344.19 as of June 2025
- Market Cap: Over $1.1 trillion
- Notable: Hit all-time high of $479.86 in December 2024, then declined significantly in early 2025
Methodology: Covariance Analysis
Formula Used:
Cov(Mercedes, Tesla) = Σ(Mercedes Return - E[Mercedes])(Tesla Return - E[Tesla]) / (n-1)
Data Period: 17 months from February 2024 to June 2025 (17 monthly return observations)
Complete 17-Month Analysis (February 2024 - June 2025):
Monthly Returns Data:
Expected Returns:
- Mercedes Average: -1.17% (monthly)
- Tesla Average: 4.69% (monthly)
Covariance Result: -20.58
Key Findings
1. Negative Correlation Pattern
The negative covariance of -20.58 indicates that when Mercedes stock rises, Tesla typically falls, and vice versa. This relationship suggests:
- Different market dynamics affecting each company
- Contrasting investor sentiment toward traditional vs. new automotive players
- Potential portfolio diversification benefits
2. Volatility Analysis
- Tesla: Extremely volatile with standard deviation of 15.76% monthly (ranging from -25.15% to +38.85%)
- Mercedes: More stable with standard deviation of 4.64% monthly (ranging from -7.56% to +10.02%)
- Risk Comparison: Tesla is 3.4x more volatile than Mercedes
3. Correlation Analysis
- Correlation Coefficient: -0.28 (moderate negative correlation)
- Statistical Significance: The negative relationship is consistent but not perfectly predictable
3. Market Response Patterns
Tesla Benefits From:
- Electric vehicle adoption momentum
- Technology and innovation narratives
- Regulatory support for EVs
- Elon Musk's high-profile initiatives
Mercedes Struggles With:
- Traditional automaker transformation challenges
- Chinese market pressures
- Higher costs of EV transition
- Trade tension impacts
Industry Context
The Great Automotive Transition
The period analyzed captures a critical inflection point in automotive history:
Traditional Automaker Challenges (Mercedes):
- Legacy manufacturing costs
- Dealer network transitions
- Supply chain disruptions
- Consumer behavior shifts
EV Pioneer Advantages (Tesla):
- First-mover advantage in EVs
- Vertical integration benefits
- Software-defined vehicle approach
- Direct-to-consumer sales model
Market Forces Driving Divergence
Regulatory Environment: EV mandates favor Tesla's pure-play approach
Consumer Preferences: Younger buyers gravitating toward Tesla brand
Technology Integration: Tesla's software-first approach vs. traditional hardware focus
Global Expansion: Different geographic exposure and market penetration
Investment Implications
Portfolio Construction Benefits
The negative covariance of -20.58 and correlation coefficient of -0.28 suggest these stocks could work well together in a portfolio:
- Risk Reduction: Opposing movements can reduce overall portfolio volatility
- Sector Exposure: Capture automotive industry growth through different approaches
- Hedging Opportunity: Mercedes position could hedge against Tesla-specific risks
Risk Considerations
- Industry Disruption: Both face uncertainty from autonomous driving technology
- Economic Sensitivity: Different exposure to economic cycles and trade policies
- Execution Risk: Success depends on management's ability to navigate transition
Future Outlook
Mercedes-Benz Transformation
- Product Pipeline: New CLA model launching in 2025, followed by S-Class upgrade in 2026
- Performance Program: "Next Level Performance" initiative targeting 10% cost reduction by 2027
- Electric Strategy: All-electric GLC and C-Class models planned
Tesla's Evolution
- Robotaxi Launch: Planned for Austin market in 2025
- Production Expansion: Scaling manufacturing to meet growing demand
- Energy Business: Growing storage and solar operations
Conclusion
The negative covariance between Mercedes and Tesla reflects the broader transformation occurring in the automotive industry. While Tesla has capitalized on the EV revolution, Mercedes faces the complex challenge of transforming a century-old business model.
Key Takeaways:
Strong Diversification Value: The -20.58 covariance provides significant portfolio diversification benefits
Contrasting Risk Profiles: Tesla offers high-risk/high-reward potential (4.69% monthly average, 15.76% volatility); Mercedes provides stability (-1.17% monthly average, 4.64% volatility)
Industry Transformation Capture: Together, these stocks represent the full spectrum of automotive industry evolution from traditional luxury to electric innovation
Real-World Evidence: The most dramatic example occurred in January 2025 when Tesla plummeted -25.15% while Mercedes surged +10.02%, demonstrating the powerful diversification effect in action.
Investment Strategy Considerations:
- Consider pairing these stocks for balanced automotive exposure
- Monitor covariance changes as industry transformation progresses
- Evaluate position sizing based on risk tolerance and market outlook
The statistical relationship between these automotive giants offers investors a unique window into one of the most significant industrial transformations of our time. The -20.58 covariance, derived from 17 months of actual market data, provides a data-driven foundation for understanding how different approaches to automotive innovation translate into market performance and portfolio construction opportunities.
4Settimana·
Maybe see you soon
I would say it was good. But that's not quite true, the dividend was good.
That's why I'm not in the red. I'm keeping the other half of the position for now. We're hoping for better times in the future. The money will go into $TDIV (+0,3%) hopefully it will be blessed with a better return.
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17 Commenti
4Settimana
My exit at €71 was probably a good one
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1Mes·
Dividend payment - N26 (Mercedes / 12.5.)
$MBG (-1,55%) Does anyone hold shares in N26 - the dividend should have been issued on May 12, but I still haven't received any payment.
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