Summary

To some extent—and it is precisely this “to some extent” that makes BASF so exciting. Operations are going better than they have in a long time: In the third quarter of 2026, revenue rose 14% to 16.4 billion EUR, and EBITDA before special items increased 15% to 1.6 billion EUR, and management raised its full-year forecast to between EUR 7.4 and 7.8 billion. At the same time, restructuring efforts at the Ludwigshafen headquarters continue to cost money: EUR 437 million in special items pushed EBIT into negative territory. In the background, the takeover battle for Evonik is unfolding. After Evonik rejected an initial offer of 22.15 EUR per share, BASF is reported by Reuters to have raised its offer to around 24 EUR per share, valuing Evonik at approximately 11.2 billion EUR. CEO Markus Kamieth emphasizes that BASF will only pursue the deal if it makes financial sense for its own shareholders. Analysts are divided: Price targets range from 40 EUR (JPMorgan) to 64 EUR (DZ Bank), with the average at 52.40 EUR. The stock closed at 52.84 EUR on October 28, 2026.

Key Highlights

Q3 2026: Revenue of 16.4 billion EUR (+14%), prices +12%, volumes +2%; EBITDA before special items of 1.6 billion EUR (+15%); all four core businesses posted growth; 2026 forecast raised: EUR 7.4 to 7.8 billion (previously EUR 6.9 to 7.7 billion)Special items of -437 million EUR, primarily restructuring in Ludwigshafen (CoreShift program)Adjusted EPS 0.72 EUR (previous year: 0.52 EUR), Free cash flow: EUR 523 million Evonik: increased bid of around EUR 24 per share according to Reuters, not officially confirmed Deutsche Bank downgrades to “Hold” (target: EUR 53), Bernstein (EUR 61) and DZ Bank (EUR 64) remain positive; Capital Markets Day on November 24, 2026, as the next catalyst for the share price

What are the current key metrics for BASF stock?

MetricValueStatus

Share price (XETRA: BAS)

52.84 EUR

October 28, 2026

52-week high

55.05 EUR

April 14, 2026

52-week low

41.48 EUR

November 5, 2025

Distance from 52-week high

approx. −4%

Oct. 28, 2026

Revenue Q3 2026

16.4 billion EUR (+14% YoY)

Oct. 28, 2026

Q3 EBITDA before special items

1.6 billion EUR (+15% YoY)

October 28, 2026

EBITDA margin before special items

10.0% (same as prior year)

October 28, 2026

EBIT Q3 2026

−98 million EUR (previous year: 232 million EUR)

October 28, 2026

EPS / Adjusted EPS Q3

0.18 EUR / 0.72 EUR

October 28, 2026

Free Cash Flow Q3

523 million EUR (+125 million EUR)

October 28, 2026

2026 EBITDA Before SE Forecast

7.4–7.8 billion EUR (previously 6.9–7.7)

Oct. 28, 2026

Free Cash Flow Forecast for 2026

EUR 1.5–2.3 billion (unchanged)

Oct. 28, 2026

Evonik Offer (Report)

approx. 24 EUR per share, approx. 11.2 billion EUR

End of Oct. 2026

Dividend

at least 2.25 EUR per share

—

Dividend Yield

approx. 4.3%

Oct. 28, 2026

Average Analyst Price Target (5 firms)

52.40 EUR

Oct. 26–28, 2026

WKN / ISIN / Ticker

BASF11 / DE000BASF111 / BAS

—

Upcoming Dates

Capital Markets Day Nov. 24, 2026, Annual Results Feb. 26, 2027

—

What news is currently driving BASF stock?

Date | News | Details | Assessment

Oct. 28, 2026

Q3 beats expectations, forecast raised

Revenue up 14% to 16.4 billion EUR, EBITDA before special items up 15% to 1.6 billion EUR. Full-year forecast raised to EUR 7.4–7.8 billion. Special items of EUR −437 million and an impairment charge at Monomers (EUR 318 million) push EBIT down to EUR −98 million.

Bullish

Oct. 28, 2026

Kamieth on Evonik: only at a reasonable price

BASF will pursue the acquisition only if it is financially beneficial for its own shareholders.

Neutral

October 28, 2026

Analysts Divided on Earnings

Bernstein (Outperform, 61 EUR) and DZ Bank (Buy, 64 EUR) remain positive, while Jefferies (Hold, 44 EUR) and JPMorgan (Underweight, 40 EUR) are skeptical.

Mixed

October 26, 2026

Deutsche Bank downgrades

Rated downgraded from Buy to Hold; price target lowered from 60 to 53 EUR—reason: uncertainty surrounding the Evonik acquisition.

Bearish

End of Oct. 2026

Evonik offer raised to around 24 EUR (Reuters)

Valuation of approximately 11.2 billion EUR, not officially confirmed. Kamieth promises Evonik employees that there will be no layoffs for operational reasons until 2032.

Decisive

September 29, 2026

Evonik rejects initial offer

22.15 EUR per share (approx. 10.3 billion EUR) deemed too low, according to the Financial Times.

Neutral

September 25, 2026

Exploratory talks confirmed

BASF confirms talks with Evonik and the RAG Foundation (which holds approximately 44% of Evonik).

Neutral

What does BASF do—and how exactly does the company make money?

Company Profile

BASF BASF SE (ISIN: DE000BASF111, WKN: BASF11), headquartered in Ludwigshafen am Rhein, is the world’s largest chemical company. The company organizes its business into eleven business units, which are grouped into six segments—divided into core businesses and standalone businesses.

The four core businesses—and how BASF actually makes money:

Chemicals: Petrochemicals and Intermediates — form the heart of the BASF Verbund. It generates revenue through the sale of basic chemicals and intermediates to both external customers and its own segments. Materials: Performance Materials and Monomers — one of the world’s leading suppliers of high-performance plastics. Generates revenue through engineering plastics, polyurethanes, and specialty plastics for the automotive and construction industries. Industrial Solutions: Dispersions & Resins and Performance Chemicals—develops ingredients and additives for industrial applications such as polymer dispersions, resins, and electronic materials. Nutrition & Care: Care Chemicals and Nutrition & Health—generates revenue from ingredients for personal care, food, and pharmaceutical products

The real sticking point, however, lies not in the segment structure but in the headquarters itself: Ludwigshafen has been struggling for years with high energy costs and overcapacity, and has most recently posted losses for four consecutive years. It is precisely against this backdrop that the potential acquisition of Evonik takes on special significance—a deal that could create economies of scale and market power, while the core location is simultaneously shrinking. Similar to the RENK Aktie, where a targeted acquisition was intended to open up new market access, BASF is focused on strategic repositioning—only under significantly more challenging structural conditions.

Fundamental Analysis: How Deep Is BASF’s Crisis, Really?

Fundamental Analysis of BASF Stock 2026

Significantly less deeply than the headlines about Ludwigshafen suggest—the third quarter of 2026 shows a company that has regained pricing power in its operations.

Earnings Quality in the Third Quarter: Revenue rose by 14% to EUR 16.4 billion, driven primarily by higher prices (+12%) and slightly higher volumes (+2%). EBITDA before special items climbed 15% to EUR 1.6 billion, while the margin remained at the prior-year level of 10.0%. The bottom line, however, is less impressive: Extraordinary items of −437 million EUR—primarily related to restructuring in Ludwigshafen and a legal settlement at Care Chemicals—as well as an impairment charge of 318 million EUR at Monomers pushed EBIT down to −98 million EUR. Adjusted earnings per share nevertheless rose from 0.52 to 0.72 EUR. Running in parallel is the CoreShift program, through which BASF aims to reduce fixed costs in its core business by up to 20% by 2029—the restructuring costs in Ludwigshafen are the price of this transformation, the benefits of which are expected to show up in margins only in the coming years.

Segments—who’s driving growth, who’s holding it back: Chemicals, Nutrition & Care, Materials, and Industrial Solutions all posted significant earnings growth. Agricultural Solutions and Surface Technologies, on the other hand, fell short of the previous year’s results; in the agricultural business, both volumes and prices declined. A separate presentation by Agricultural Solutions is specifically scheduled for Capital Markets Day on November 24, 2026—a segment that needs to provide answers right now.

Forecast and the underestimated final quarter: BASF now expects EBITDA before special items of EUR 7.4 to 7.8 billion for 2026. After nine months, approximately 6.4 billion EUR has already been recorded—leaving only 1.0 to 1.4 billion EUR for the fourth quarter. This is precisely why the stock failed to take off despite the upward revision to the forecast: Bernstein spoke of an outlook that prices in a disappointing final quarter. Readers are already familiar with a similar pattern of strong group performance and difficult location issues from the Bayer Aktie —there, too, the market has long waited for proof rather than promises.

Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Flexibility for Evonik: Operating cash flow fell by EUR 275 million to EUR 1.1 billion in the quarter because higher raw material prices tied up EUR 507 million in inventory. Free cash flow nevertheless rose to EUR 523 million—thanks in part to EUR 434 million from the sale of shares in Harbour Energy and significantly lower investments in Zhanjiang. The FCF forecast of EUR 1.5 to 2.3 billion remains confirmed, as does the dividend of at least EUR 2.25 per share. An acquisition of Evonik for approximately EUR 11 billion would amount to just under a quarter of its market capitalization and would therefore be financially feasible, but it would not be a minor deal.

Conclusion of the fundamental analysis: Operationally, BASF is clearly better positioned than it was a year ago—prices, earnings, and the outlook are all trending upward. The weak points lie in the one-time charges from the restructuring in Ludwigshafen, the flagging agricultural business, and the open question of how much BASF will ultimately pay for Evonik.

BASF Stock Price Targets and Forecast for 2026

How is the BASF stock price performing?

Analysts see an average price target of 52.40 EUR for BASF stock—leaving virtually no upside potential from the closing price of 52.84 EUR on October 28, 2026, with an extreme range of 40 to 64 EUR. Although the stock rose by 1.4% following the forecast upgrade on October 28, it remains in the consolidation phase that has been ongoing since the April 14 high of 55.05 EUR. The lower boundary of recent weeks, around 49 EUR, held in early October; since then, the stock has worked its way back above 52 EUR. Anyone looking for the pattern of Lufthansa Aktie will find it here again: strong numbers, but the market wants to see a breakout before it revalues the stock.

Key price levels:

52-week high: 55.05 EUR (April 14, 2026)Current price: 52.84 EUR (Xetra close on Oct. 28, 2026)First resistance level: 53.67 EUR (closing price on Sept. 8, 2026)Second resistance level: 58.20 EUR Critical support level: 48 EUR

Analyst price targets:

Average price target: 52.40 EUR (5 firms, Oct. 26–28, 2026) DZ Bank: 64 EUR (Buy, Oct. 28, 2026) Bernstein: 61 EUR (Outperform, Oct. 28, 2026) Deutsche Bank: 53 EUR (Hold, previously Buy/60 EUR, Oct. 26, 2026) Jefferies: 44 EUR (Hold, Oct. 28, 2026) JPMorgan: 40 EUR (Underweight, Oct. 28, 2026)

Chart Analysis:

The chemical giant’s stock has been trading sideways for years. It is clear that a strong trading range has formed between 37.50 and 54 EUR. Within this range, I rate the stock as neutral. Should the price fall below 48 EUR, sellers would once again have a slight advantage in pushing the stock price toward 37.50 EUR. If this level were to be breached amid strong selling pressure, a further medium-term decline to 28.50 EUR would not be unlikely.

If, on the other hand, the price breaks above 54 EUR, further buying interest is likely to emerge very quickly in the range from 58.20 EUR to approximately 71 EUR.

BASF Stock (BAS) Chart Analysis and Price Targets for 2026 (as of Oct. 29, 2026) – Source: Stock3 / Christian Lill

Conclusion: Can a takeover still save the BASF Group?

My Assessment: Hold / Wait for a Breakout

The honest answer after the third quarter: BASF doesn’t need a rescue; BASF is delivering. Prices, earnings, and forecasts are trending upward; while the restructuring in Ludwigshafen continues to cost money, it is being consistently carried out. The Evonik takeover is therefore not a necessity, but an option—and Kamieth makes it unmistakably clear that he will only go through with it at a reasonable price. It is precisely this discipline that is the best news for shareholders in this whole takeover saga.

The problem lies elsewhere: The raised forecast leaves little room for maneuver in the fourth quarter, and analysts are more divided than ever. Those who believe in the operational turnaround will find a solid foundation at 52 to 53 EUR, with a dividend yield of around 4.3%. Those who want to play it safe should wait for the Capital Markets Day on November 24 and a closing price above 54 EUR. A similar tension between strong numbers and cautious analysts was recently also experienced by Deutsche Bank Aktie.

✅ Opportunities

⚠️ Risks

• Q3 results beat expectations; forecast raised to EUR 7.4–7.8 billion
• Pricing power: +12% prices in the third quarter
• All four core businesses increased their earnings
• Free cash flow rises; dividend of at least EUR 2.25 confirmed
• Capital Markets Day on November 24, 2026, as a catalyst
• Kamieth signals pricing discipline at Evonik
• Forecast implies a weak fourth quarter
• Additional one-time charges from the Ludwigshafen restructuring (−437 million EUR in Q3)
• Agricultural Solutions sees decline in volume and prices
• Evonik deal could become more expensive; outcome uncertain
• Analysts Divided: Price Targets Range from 40 to 64 EUR
• Deutsche Bank downgrades rating due to uncertainty surrounding Evonik

FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions About BASF Stock

Is BASF Stock a Buy in 2026?

That depends on the type of investor: From an operational standpoint, BASF is impressing with a 15% increase in EBITDA before special items in the third quarter and an upwardly revised forecast of EUR 7.4 to 7.8 billion. However, analysts are divided—DZ Bank (64 EUR) and Bernstein (61 EUR) are positive, while JPMorgan (40 EUR) recommends underweight.

Why didn’t BASF stock rise more sharply after the earnings report?

Despite strong Q3 results, the stock rose by only 1.4% to EUR 52.84 on October 28, 2026. With approximately EUR 6.4 billion in EBITDA before special items over nine months, the full-year forecast leaves only EUR 1.0 to 1.4 billion for the fourth quarter; furthermore, uncertainty surrounding Evonik is weighing on the stock.

What is the price target for BASF stock?

The average price target from five major research firms is EUR 52.40. The range extends from EUR 40 (JPMorgan) to EUR 44 (Jefferies), EUR 53 (Deutsche Bank), EUR 61 (Bernstein), and EUR 64 (DZ Bank).

What is the forecast for BASF stock in 2026?

BASF itself expects EBITDA before special items of 7.4 to 7.8 billion EUR and free cash flow of 1.5 to 2.3 billion EUR for 2026. From a technical analysis perspective, a closing price above 54 EUR would signal a continued move toward 71 EUR; conversely, a price below 46 EUR could trigger a decline toward 37.50 EUR.

When will BASF release its next earnings report?

BASF will publish its financial results for fiscal year 2026 on February 26, 2027. Prior to that, the Capital Markets Day will take place in Ludwigshafen on November 24, 2026, including a separate presentation by Agricultural Solutions.

How much is BASF’s dividend?

BASF has committed to a dividend of at least 2.25 EUR per share per year. At a share price of 52.84 EUR, this corresponds to a dividend yield of approximately 4.3%.

How does BASF make money?

BASF generates revenue through four core businesses—Chemicals, Materials, Industrial Solutions, and Nutrition & Care—and two independent businesses, Surface Technologies and Agricultural Solutions. In the third quarter of 2026, the Group generated EUR 16.4 billion in revenue from these operations.

Will BASF acquire Evonik?

That remains to be seen. According to Reuters reports, BASF has raised its non-binding offer to around 24 EUR per Evonik share, which amounts to approximately 11.2 billion EUR. This has not been confirmed, and CEO Kamieth intends to pursue the deal only if it makes financial sense for BASF shareholders.

How do you assess the potential acquisition of $EVK (+0,14%) as $BAS (-0,35%) as a wise decision on the part of management?

$EVK (+0,14%)
$BAS (-0,35%)

Summary:

To some extent—and it is precisely this “to some extent” that makes the current situation at BASF so complex. At the Ludwigshafen headquarters, the workforce has fallen to its lowest level in more than 70 years, and the site has posted losses for four consecutive years. Against this backdrop, BASF confirmed on September 25, 2026, that it was engaged in exploratory talks regarding a potential acquisition of Evonik Industries—a move that could strategically strengthen its position in the German chemical industry. However, the first attempt has already failed: According to the Financial Times, Evonik rejected the offer of 22.15 EUR per share (total value of approximately 10.3 billion EUR, roughly 23% of BASF’s own market value) as too low. Major shareholder RAG Foundation, which holds a 44% stake in Evonik, is considered a decisive factor in how the situation will unfold. Meanwhile, BASF remains solid from an operational standpoint: Following strong Q2 results with EPS jumping to EUR 4.78, management raised its EBITDA forecast. The stock is currently trading at approximately 50.57 EUR.

Key points:

Ludwigshafen workforce at its lowest level in over 70 years; fourth consecutive year of lossesCoreShift cost-cutting program: up to a 20% reduction in fixed costs in the core business by 2029; at the same time, BASF is investing EUR 1.5 billion annually in Ludwigshafen; BASF inaugurates a new EUR 10 billion plant in Zhanjiang, China — Capital shift draws criticismEvonik rejects BASF’s offer of 22.15 EUR per share (10.3 billion EUR, approx. 23% of BASF’s market value) The RAG Foundation (44% stake in Evonik) is considered a key factor in the future course of events Q2 2026: EPS of 4.78 EUR (previous year: 0.09 EUR), EBITDA forecast raised; Deutsche Bank (Buy, 60 EUR), Bernstein (Outperform, 61 EUR), DZ Bank (Buy, 64 EUR) Price: approx. 50.57 EUR — crossed below the 100-day moving average on September 25

Current Key Figures — BASF Stock (as of September 30, 2026)

Key FigureValueAs of

Price (XETRA: BAS)

approx. 50.57 EUR

September 30, 2026

52-Week High

55.05 EUR

April 14, 2026

52-Week Low

41.48 EUR

November 5, 2025

Distance from 52-Week High

approx. −8 to −9%

September 30, 2026

Revenue Q2 2026

17.21 billion EUR (+9.11% YoY)

July 15, 2026

EPS Q2 2026

4.78 EUR (previous year: 0.09 EUR)

July 15, 2026

EBITDA Forecast for 2026

6.2–7.0 billion EUR, raised after Q2

2026

Workforce in Ludwigshafen

Lowest level in over 70 years

June 2026

Global workforce

approx. 94,900 (−14.4% YoY)

June 2026

Ludwigshafen results

4th consecutive year of losses

2024/2025

Ludwigshafen investment (ongoing)

1.5 billion EUR annually

—

CoreShift cost-saving program

up to −20% fixed costs in core business by 2029

Announced in May 2026

New plant in China (Zhanjiang)

Approx. EUR 10 billion investment, inaugurated in March 2026

March 2026

Evonik Offer (rejected)

EUR 22.15 per share, EUR 10.3 billion total

Reported Sept. 29, 2026

Offer as % of BASF market value

approx. 23%

—

RAG Foundation’s stake in Evonik

approx. 44%

—

Dividend 2025 / expected 2026

2.25 EUR / 2.27 EUR

—

Dividend yield

approx. 4.5%

Sept. 2026

100-day moving average

Crossed below on Sept. 25, 2026 (at 50.46 EUR)

Sept. 25, 2026

WKN / ISIN / Ticker

BASF11 / DE000BASF111 / BAS

—

Deutsche Bank / Bernstein / DZ Bank

Buy 60 EUR / Outperform 61 EUR / Buy 64 EUR

September 28–29, 2026

Next quarterly results (Q3)

October 28, 2026

—

BASF Stock News — All the latest updates at a glance

Date | News | Details | Assessment

September 29, 2026

Evonik Rejects Takeover Offer

According to the Financial Times, Evonik has rejected the offer of 22.15 EUR per share (10.3 billion EUR total, approx. 23% premium) as too low. The RAG Foundation (44% stake) has not commented on the offer price but is considered a decisive factor in determining next steps.

Key

September 28–29, 2026

Analysts Reaffirm Buy Recommendations

Deutsche Bank (Buy, 60 EUR), Bernstein (Outperform, price target lowered from 63 to 61 EUR), and DZ Bank (Buy, 64 EUR) maintain their “Buy” ratings despite the uncertain takeover situation.

Bullish

September 25, 2026

Exploratory talks with Evonik confirmed

BASF officially confirms talks with the RAG Foundation and Evonik Industries. On the same day, the stock crosses below its 100-day moving average.

Neutral

May 2026

CoreShift cost-cutting program unveiled

New restructuring program aims to reduce fixed costs in the core business by up to 20% by 2029—including further job cuts and the outsourcing of service jobs to India.

Bearish

March 2026

New plant in Zhanjiang, China, inaugurated

BASF officially inaugurates its new plant in Zhanjiang, which cost approximately 10 billion EUR—the Group’s third-largest integrated site after Ludwigshafen and Antwerp. The shift of capital away from Germany draws criticism.

Controversial

July 15, 2026

Strong Q2 and Raised EBITDA Forecast

Earnings per share jump to 4.78 EUR (previous year: 0.09 EUR), and revenue rises by 9.11% to 17.21 billion EUR. Management subsequently raises the EBITDA forecast for the full year.

Very Bullish

What does BASF do—and how exactly does the company make money?

Company Description

BASF BASF SE (ISIN: DE000BASF111, WKN: BASF11), headquartered in Ludwigshafen am Rhein, is the world’s largest chemical company. The company organizes its business into eleven business units, which are grouped into six segments—divided into core businesses and standalone businesses.

The four core businesses—and how BASF specifically makes money:

Chemicals: Petrochemicals and Intermediates — form the heart of the BASF Verbund. It generates revenue through the sale of basic chemicals and intermediates to both external customers and its own segments. Materials: Performance Materials and Monomers — one of the world’s leading suppliers of high-performance plastics. Generates revenue through engineering plastics, polyurethanes, and specialty plastics for the automotive and construction industriesIndustrial Solutions: Dispersions & Resins and Performance Chemicals — develops ingredients and additives for industrial applications such as polymer dispersions, resins, and electronic materialsNutrition & Care: Care Chemicals and Nutrition & Health—generates revenue from ingredients for personal care, food, and pharmaceutical products

The real crux of the matter, however, lies not in the segment structure but in the headquarters itself: Ludwigshafen has been struggling for years with high energy costs and overcapacity, and has most recently posted losses for four consecutive years. It is precisely against this backdrop that the potential Evonik acquisition takes on special significance—an acquisition that could create economies of scale and market power, while the core location is simultaneously shrinking. Similar to the RENK Aktie, where a targeted acquisition was intended to open up new market access, BASF is focused on strategic repositioning—only under significantly more challenging structural conditions.

Fundamental Analysis: How Deep Is BASF’s Crisis, Really?

Fundamental Analysis of BASF Stock 2026

The situation is more nuanced than the headlines suggest—the group as a whole is not in danger, but its core German operations certainly are.

Valuation in the context of two conflicting narratives: At the corporate level, BASF is demonstrating operational strength with an EPS jump to 4.78 EUR and an upwardly revised EBITDA forecast (6.2 to 7.0 billion EUR for 2026). At its Ludwigshafen headquarters, however, the workforce has fallen to its lowest level in more than 70 years, and the site has posted losses for four consecutive years. This dual nature—a profitable group as a whole, a loss-making core site—is the real reason why the question “Can a takeover save the group?” is even being asked.

Margin Development and the CoreShift Program: The CoreShift cost-cutting program, unveiled in May, aims to reduce fixed costs in the core business by up to 20% by 2029—including further job cuts and the outsourcing of service jobs to India. At the same time, BASF continues to invest 1.5 billion EUR annually in Ludwigshafen, which shows that management is not opting for a retreat, but rather for a painful yet targeted restructuring.

Financial Health and the Evonik Issue Following the Rejection: With a dividend yield of approximately 4.5%, BASF remains financially viable. However, the fact that Evonik rejected the initial offer of 22.15 EUR per share as too low indicates that a potential deal could end up costing more than originally calculated, which further complicates the financing issue. The RAG Foundation, with its 44% stake, holds the real key to the situation.

Segment Analysis — China as a Counterpoint: The inauguration of the new plant in Zhanjiang—which cost approximately 10 billion EUR—in March 2026 shows where a significant portion of investment capital is currently flowing—not to Germany. This shift in capital is strategically understandable given the lower energy costs in China, but it further intensifies the debate over the future of Germany as a nuclear hub.

Conclusion of the fundamental analysis: BASF as a corporate group is not financially at risk—its operating figures and dividend capacity indicate otherwise. Its German headquarters in Ludwigshafen, however, is facing a genuine, structural crisis that a single acquisition alone cannot resolve. An integration with Evonik could strengthen the group as a whole without resolving the underlying problems at the Ludwigshafen site.

How is the BASF stock price performing?

Current chart analysis and price targets for BASF stock (as of October 1, 2026)

In early September 2026, following strong Q2 results and an upward revision of the EBITDA forecast, the BASF stock price came very close to its 52-week high of 55.05 EUR. Since July 13, 2026, however, the stock has been in a consolidation phase, which intensified technically on September 25—the day Evonik confirmed — when the price crossed the 100-day moving average at EUR 50.46. Evonik’s rejection of the takeover bid on September 29 did not trigger any additional price movement, suggesting that the market had not expected a quick resolution in the first place. The stock is currently trading at approximately 50.57 EUR. A similar pattern of operational strength coupled with structural location issues was most recently also evident in Lufthansa Aktie, where cost pressures at the home market also contrast with a fundamentally positive analyst outlook.

Key price levels:

52-week high: 55.05 EUR (April 14, 2026)52-week low: 41.48 EUR (November 5, 2025)Current price: approx. 50.57 EUR (September 30, 2026)100-day moving average: 50.46 EUR — crossed downward on September 25First resistance: 54.275 EURSecond resistance: 70–71 EURCritical support level: A drop below 46 EUR would confirm renewed weakness

Chart Analysis:

The chemical giant’s stock has been trading sideways for years. It is clear that a strong trading range has formed between 37.50 and 54 EUR. Within this range, I rate the stock as neutral. Should the price fall below 46 EUR, sellers would once again have a slight advantage in pushing the share price toward 37.50 EUR. If this level were to be breached amid strong selling pressure, a further medium-term decline to 28.50 EUR would not be unlikely.

If, on the other hand, the price were to break above 54 EUR, further buying interest could quickly emerge, pushing the price up to around 71 EUR.

Conclusion: Can a takeover still save the BASF Group?

My assessment: Hold / Wait

The honest answer: The Group as a whole doesn’t need saving, but its German headquarters in Ludwigshafen does. An integration with Evonik would strategically strengthen the chemicals business and create economies of scale, but it would not solve the structural problems—high energy costs, overcapacity, four consecutive years of losses—at its actual home base. Evonik’s rejection of the initial offer also shows that even this strategic option won’t come at a bargain price. A similar tension between a solid corporate balance sheet and a challenging home market is currently evident at Deutsche Bank Aktie.

Those who believe in BASF’s long-term fundamentals despite the location-related challenges and view the Evonik issue as a bonus rather than a necessity will find an entry point here with a solid 4.5% dividend yield and analyst targets well above the current price. Those who want to play it safe should watch how the takeover poker game with Evonik and the RAG Foundation unfolds in the coming weeks, wait for the Q3 results on October 28, and see if the price breaks above 54 EUR.

Would Evonik $BAS (-0,35%) get things moving again? What do you think??

Tuesday:

Aliko Dangote is taking his oil refinery public. It is the largest in Nigeria and could now be expanded to become one of the largest in the world. The company benefited from the kerosene shortage in the first half of the year and posted a profit of about 1.8 billion USD.

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/energie/oel-boom-nigeria-100.html

Thursday:

U.S. Treasury yields reach new record highs, which also drives up yields in Germany, the U.K., and Japan. The level is now so high that it is weighing on other asset classes, such as stocks.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/anleihen/anleihemarkt-ausverkauf-bei-us-anleihen-erfasst-den-gesamten-bondmarkt/100256963.html

$NVDA (-2%) NVIDIA is now valued at a P/E ratio of just 18—the company hasn’t been this cheap since the 2010s. However, NVIDIA’s margins are so exorbitantly high that many market participants do not believe they can be sustained. Therefore, while the 18 P/E ratio appears cheap, it could rise significantly if margins were to fall sharply.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/kolumnen/aktien-nvidia-ist-so-billig-wie-seit-mehr-als-zehn-jahren-nicht-mehr/100256080.html

Friday:

$BAS (-0,35%) BASF is planning to acquire its competitor $EVK (+0,14%) Evonik. As is almost always the case with takeovers, the shares of the target company react very positively, while the buyer’s shares fall. So far, there has been no concrete offer, only initial contact with banks.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/chemie-basf-arbeitet-an-uebernahme-von-evonik/100257452.html

July 2026 Review

📊 Performance & Markets

🏆 Hot Factor Favorite: $NVDA (-2%)

👑 King Midas Factor: $CRM (+0,71%)

💶 1 Swiss franc traded at 1.06 euros.

₿ Crypto & Alternative Investments

Crypto savings plans are underway

There were no new purchases or sales at Timeless; Timeless is now planning to launch a tradable product for the general public. There’s also no news regarding NFTs and music rights.

🍷 Winery

No news.

📈 Individual Stocks, ETFs & Savings Plans

🟢 Buy: Individual stocks on hold until November

🔴 Sale: $SHL (+0,21%)
, $BAS (-0,35%)

🏅 Top of the Month: $BTO (-4,26%)

📉 Flop of the Month: $LIFT (-7,19%)

🚀 Crowdcube & Startups

I’m thinking about buying shares in Lemonaid through the GLS Crowd platform.

🧠 Nao

My savings plans are still on track.

🌴 Personal Recap

I actually won some travel credit in the CHECK24 prediction game and a 10-franc gift card from Kickstr. Unfortunately, starting with the quarterfinals, practically all my predictions were wrong.

I still don’t have a new smartphone, and the special payment hasn’t been made yet either.

Berlin, on the other hand, was absolutely amazing—the Finch concert was truly a world of its own.

Right now, I’m thinking about placing a bet on the price of coffee. I’m also very happy that my $NA9 (-0,57%) stock is being acquired.

I went to a rum and meat tasting with a very good friend. It was incredibly delicious, and with the heat, the rum really went to my head.

Through an acquaintance I met there, I learned that the owner isn’t averse to investments. That’s why I had the idea to combine a finance get-together with a tasting. Would you book something like that?

To my great delight, I’m getting a refund of about €11,000 from the tax office. I haven’t decided yet what I’ll do with it or how I’ll use the money, though.

Unitplus is going as planned.

🎙️ Podcast Season 3, Episode 1 has launched. Topic: Financial Goals.

🔮 Outlook for August

Various events at work. Family visiting. Another 10 days of vacation starting at the end of August

How about you? How was your July?

If you’d like to learn more, feel free to follow me. And if you don’t like my investments: The block feature still works great. 😄

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As we do every Sunday, here are the top news stories from the past week.

Monday:

Politically explosive developments on the supervisory board of $VOW (-2,36%) VW. Shareholder Qatar is blocking the sale of VW plants to an Israeli defense contractor, which could use them to manufacture parts for the Iron Dome. The German federal government itself uses the Iron Dome as part of its defense strategy.

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/nach-veto-von-katar-investoren-verliert-vw-jetzt-einen-grossen-ruestungs-deal-6a556769bd016e39ef426447

Tuesday:

Weak figures from $IBM (-0,21%) IBM are dragging the entire software sector down. Revenue fell significantly short of expectations. In particular, anticipated software investments appear to have failed to materialize.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/medien-ittk-technologie/ibm-schlimmster-crash-seit-2000-20404698.html

Wednesday:

$BAS (-0,35%) BASF raises its forecast, but the stock still falls. This is primarily due to the outlook for the second half of the year, in which BASF continues to see risks. In Q2, revenue rose by 16%. The earnings forecast was raised to a range of 6.9–7.7 billion euros.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/basf-hebt-prognose-an-aktie-sinkt-dennoch-20404774.html

Friday:

The inflation rate in the eurozone fell to 2.8% in June. Nevertheless, inflation remains well above 2.0%. The ECB is therefore caught in a dilemma between inflation and growth concerns. The next interest rate decision is due in just six weeks.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/konjunktur-hoher-inflationsdruck-im-euroraum-laesst-etwas-nach-ezb-steckt-im-dilemma/100241008.html

Trump wants to sell faster access to his posts on Truth Social. The reason is that his posts often move the markets. To put it bluntly, one could say Trump now wants to bring insider trading to market maturity.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/truth-social-investoren-sollen-schnellzugang-zu-trumps-posts-kaufen-koennen/100240942.html

Following the previously reported sale of the coatings business of $BAS (-0,35%) it appears that the restructuring is continuing to move forward. Financial circles are currently speculating about a valuation of the $BAS (-0,35%)agricultural division ranging from 20 to 30 billion euros. What is remarkable about this is that $BAS (-0,35%) the company as a whole is currently valued at only about 45 to 50 billion euros on the stock market. In other words: A business unit that makes up only a portion of the conglomerate could, on its own, be worth nearly half of the current market capitalization.

In my view, this highlights a problem that many large conglomerates face. The stock market often applies a valuation discount (conglomerate discount) to them. Different business segments with varying growth profiles are often valued lower under one umbrella than they would be as standalone companies. This very point was discussed in the latest Handelsblatt podcast. An independently listed agricultural business could therefore command a significantly higher valuation multiple than it would within the $BAS (-0,35%)group.

Of course, there are also risks. The agricultural division is one of the faster-growing and higher-margin segments of $BAS (-0,35%) . A partial spin-off could lead to the remaining group being perceived as more cyclical. At the same time, $BAS (-0,35%) the IPO would bring in fresh capital, while the group would remain the majority shareholder and thus continue to participate in the agricultural division’s future performance. It is precisely this mix of value unlocking and further upside that makes the move interesting, in my view.

Many are also wondering whether existing $BAS (-0,35%)shareholders will automatically receive shares in the new company. As things stand, that is not planned. $BAS (-0,35%) The group is planning a partial IPO, will remain the majority shareholder, and has not yet announced any allocation of shares to existing $BAS (-0,35%)shareholders. Anyone wishing to invest later would likely have to purchase the new shares on the open market.

Personally, I view the planned IPO rather positively so far. If it $BAS (-0,35%) succeed in reducing the group’s valuation discount while remaining the majority shareholder of an agricultural company valued higher on its own, this could also benefit us $BAS (-0,35%)shareholders in the long run.

What do you think? Is the group divesting itself of one of its most attractive business units, or do we see a clever move here in the form of an IPO that could lead to a revaluation of both the individual division and the group as a whole?

https://www.merkur.de/wirtschaft/basf-erwartet-megadeal-zahlen-zum-geplanten-boersengang-kursieren-94395652.html

~ Not investment advice ~

$BAS (-0,35%)

📊 𝐄𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐛𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐞

• Revenue: €17.2B (+16%, consensus: €16.5B)

• EBITDA before special items: €2.4B (consensus: €2.1B, prior year: €1.6B)

• EBIT before special items: €1.5B (consensus: €1.1B, prior year: €0.7B)

• Net income: €4.1B (consensus: €2.4B, prior year: €79M)

• Free cash flow: -€0.2B (vs. +€0.5B)

⠀

🎯 𝐀𝐮𝐬𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐤

• EBITDA before special items now expected to be €6.9B–€7.7B (previously: €6.2B–€7.0B)

• Free cash flow still expected to be €1.5B–€2.3B

⠀

📌 Key Points

• Earnings significantly exceed analyst consensus

• Higher prices and sales volumes drive revenue growth

• Gain on disposal from the Coatings transaction contributes significantly to consolidated earnings

• Free cash flow impacted by higher capital tied up due to increased raw material prices

With the completion of the sale of the Coatings division to the new company Surventis, $BAS (-0,35%) an important step in the “Winning Ways” strategy. $BAS (-0,35%) It will receive approximately €5.8 billion in cash, while retaining a 40% stake in Surventis. This means the Group is not completely divesting itself of a profitable business but will continue to participate in its future value growth.

In my view, that is precisely the interesting part of the deal. $BAS (-0,35%) It will be able to focus more strongly on its core business in the future, while simultaneously freeing up capital and still retaining the opportunity to benefit from Surventis’s successful development. Should the company continue to gain value under the new ownership structure, $BAS (-0,35%) continue to benefit through the 40% stake.

For us shareholders, the key question now will be how $BAS (-0,35%) the company uses the freed-up funds. Possible options include further debt reduction, investments in the core business, or additional capital returns. In any case, the ongoing share buyback program through 2028 gains additional potential financial flexibility thanks to the inflow of funds.

I therefore view the deal positively overall: $BAS (-0,35%) it simplifies the group’s structure, strengthens the balance sheet, and at the same time keeps a foot in the door in case Surventis continues to gain value in the coming years.

How do you assess this move? Is it a successful allocation of capital, or would you have preferred a complete sale?

https://www.basf.com/cn/en/media/news-releases/asia-pacific/2026/07/apac-26-74

~ Not investment advice ~