$PUM (-1,99%)

I've been watching Puma for a long time - not because of short-term trends, but because of the substance behind the brand. Now, after the 50% drop in the share price since the beginning of the year (as of April 2025, price ~€22), things are getting interesting.

Because: Puma is currently valued favorably - the P/E ratio 2025e is around 13, while competitors such as Nike or Adidas sometimes have P/E ratios above 25. The price/sales ratio is only ~0.6, which in my view is an understatement of the potential for a global brand with billions in sales.

Important figures:

Turnover 2024: € 8.6 billion

Adjusted EBIT: € 622 million

EBIT margin 2024: 7.2%

Target margin by 2027: 8.5% (through the "nextlevel" efficiency program)

Net debt: manageable at ~€ 640 million, solid in relation to the balance sheet

Market capitalization: ~€ 3.2 billion

The company is currently focusing on efficiency and profitable markets. These include, among others:

Withdrawal from weaker markets (e.g. US mass market)

Expansion of the direct-to-consumer business

Focus on retro models such as "Speedcat" - with high margins and brand loyalty

Regional focus on Latin America and EMEA, where growth has recently been strongest

Why I am considering an investment:

1. turnaround character: operationally, things are not going badly - only the outlook for 2025 is cautious. But this is precisely where the opportunity lies: the poor sentiment is already priced in.

2. valuation: Historically low multiples for a sports brand with global reach.

3. brand & management: Despite challenges, Puma has a clear strategy and has been known in the past for making strong counter-cyclical returns.

Risks? Of course. The USA and China are weakening, and fashion is not a sure-fire success. But for long-term investors with patience and a sense for undervalued quality, Puma could be exciting right now.

I'm not invested yet - but I'm doing the math.

Subscribe to the podcast so that the bottom is reached soon.

00:00:00 Market environment

00:21:40 Nike, Adidas, Puma, On Holdings, Lululemon, Under Armor

00:35:50 Finding the bottom: Vix, Oil Price, Baltic Dry Index, Gold, Bonds / Bonds, CME FED Watchtool, St. Louis FRED Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements, COT

01:18:30 Chevron, Exxon, Occidental Petroleum, BP, Shell

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iShares MSCI World Energy Sector A2PHCF

01:29:35 China shares

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Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/28RlbWBRC6xGUJ8AkHVcFU?si=w1t0GJtDTWOwNuUADqWoPQ

YouTube

https://youtu.be/QvUuYYmxk2k

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/84-china-aktien-%C3%B6l-aktien-sportartikel-aktien-containerschiff/id1695869891?i=1000703088147

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#china
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With a KUV of not even 0.4, this is a real bargain that will also pay out dividends in the near future...

Tariffs hamper Big Tech in the US + Apple has to raise prices + E-prescription drives growth of online pharmacy Redcare + Puma replaces boss after disappointing results + Canada imposes counter tariffs on some vehicles from the US

Tariffs hamper big tech in the USA

$AMZN (-0,38%) / $NVDA (+0,36%) / $MSFT (-0,41%)

• The high import tariffs announced by US President Trump on technology equipment from Asia, including 34% on China, 32% on Taiwan and 25% on South Korea, could hinder Big Tech's multi-billion dollar AI infrastructure projects in the US, according to analysts.
• Project Stargate, a $500 billion data center project by OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle, as well as AI investments by Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon could be delayed or curtailed as a result.

Apple $AAPL (-0,88%)must raise prices

• Apple faces the choice of absorbing the additional costs or raising iPhone prices by up to 43% due to new US import tariffs of 54% on Chinese goods, according to Rosenblatt Securities.
• Even if Apple were to relocate production to Vietnam or India, it would have to raise prices by at least 30% due to tariffs of 46% and 26% respectively, according to Counterpoint Research.
• Goldman Sachs warns that far-reaching US tariffs will weigh on global growth and force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more aggressively than previously expected.
• Ashish Shah, Chief Investment Officer at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, describes this as a growth shock and a burden for US consumers.

E-prescription drives growth of online pharmacy Redcare $RDC (-10,19%)

• The online pharmacy Redcare Pharmacy grew strongly in the first quarter.
• The company continued to benefit from a strong increase in business with electronic prescriptions, particularly in Germany.
• According to a statement on Friday, the company increased its revenue by 28 percent year-on-year to 717 million euros, which was slightly above market estimates.
• In Germany alone, sales of e-prescriptions almost tripled to 108 million euros.
• This key figure is a particular focus for investors and analysts.
• At company level, it reportedly increased by almost 50 percent to 233 million euros.
• However, Redcare continues to generate the lion's share of its business with the sale of non-prescription products.
• Revenues here rose by almost a fifth to 484 million euros.
• The online pharmacy did not disclose earnings figures, but the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) margin "should be positive again," explained CFO Jasper Eenhorst.
• Redcare is "clearly on course" to achieve its annual targets.
• The company plans to publish its full quarterly report on May 6.

Puma $PUM (-1,99%)replaces CEO after disappointing results

• Following a recent disappointing performance, the sporting goods manufacturer Puma is making a change of boss.
• Arne Freundt is stepping down as CEO on April 11 "due to differing views on the implementation of the strategy", the company announced in Herzogenaurach on Thursday.
• The Supervisory Board has appointed Arthur Hoeld as the new Puma CEO from July 1, it said. He was responsible for global sales as a member of the Adidas Executive Board until October 2024.
• Matthias Bäumer, previously Vice President for the Teamsport segment, will also take over the position of Chief Sales Officer from April 1.
• Puma is currently experiencing a huge crunch: after a decline in profits last year, the Adidas competitor is also expecting falling results for 2025.
• Trade tensions, cautious consumers and strong fluctuations in exchange rates are weighing on the Swiss franc, which is massively lagging behind its local rival.

Canada imposes counter-tariffs on some vehicles from the USA

• Canada is responding to US President Donald Trump in the trade war and imposing counter-tariffs on certain vehicle imports from the United States.
• Ottawa will impose 25 percent import duties on all cars not produced under the North American trade pact USMCA, announced Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
• The measures should cause maximum damage to the US economy, but spare the Canadian economy as much as possible.
• Carney emphasized that the United States was no longer a friendly partner for Canada and that the country would defend its interests and sovereignty.
• According to Carney, he had also spoken to the acting Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the phone that morning.
• They discussed strengthening the "diverse trade relations" between the two countries.
• "In light of the crisis caused by President Trump's tariffs, reliable trading partners are more important than ever," Carney wrote on the X platform.
• Trump launched a trade war against neighboring Canada and Mexico shortly after taking office, but has withdrawn some tariffs several times.
• Although Canada was not mentioned in the latest announcements by the US government, tariffs already imposed on the country still apply.
• The Canadian automotive industry is particularly affected.

Friday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Stock market holiday in China and Hong Kong

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Aurubis EUR 1.50
• JPMorgan Chase 1.40 USD
• American Express USD 0.82
• Bristol-Myers Squibb USD 0.62

• Quarterly figures / company dates Europe
• 07:00 Sodexo half-year figures
• 11:00 Bawag Group AGM
• No time specified: Banco Santander AGM

• Economic data

08:00 DE: New orders February seasonally adjusted FORECAST: +3.5% yoy previous: -7.0% yoy

08:00 DE: Manufacturing Turnover February | Services Turnover January

08:45 FR: Industrial Production February FORECAST: +0.2% yoy previous: -0.6% yoy

10:00 EUECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos, speaks at Academia Europea Leadership Event

14:30 US: Labor Market Data March Employment ex Agriculture PROGNOSE: +140,000 yoy previous: +151,000 yoy Unemployment rate PROGNOSE: 4.1% previous: 4.1% Average hourly earnings PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy/+3.9% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy/+4.0% yoy

17:25 US: Fed Chairman Powell, economic outlook speech

No time specified: UK: Governor of the Bank of England, meeting of the Financial Policy Committee

$ADS (-0,74%) down 9% today due to Trump's tariffs on Vietnam 🇻🇳 China 🇨🇳 and Cambodia 🇰🇭

Is this a nice discount campaign to get in there?

Adidas P/E ratio is, however, far above those of $NKE (-0,2%) and $PUM (-1,99%) which indicates overvaluation.

What is your assessment of the share?

$RACE (-0,14%)
$PUM (-1,99%)

Lewis Hamilton's switch to Ferrari has the merchandising cash register ringing. The Brit's fans have practically overrun equipment supplier Puma. The equipment partner has now published its first figures.

Lewis Hamilton raced in silver for twelve years. Since the start of the current season, the driver and his fans have had to get used to a new color. The announcement that Ferrari had signed the record winner had already caused quite a stir last season. However, the euphoria in the first few months of the year was heightened once again when the change was completed.

The first official picture of Lewis Hamilton in front of Enzo Ferrari's old house received 5.7 million likes from fans on Instagram. No other post with Formula 1 content had ever generated such a social media response before. Ferrari fed the wave of euphoria bit by bit with new content during the winter break and kept it rolling into the season.

The hype surrounding Hamilton naturally led to an increase in demand for merchandising products. All the fans who had been wearing the seven-time world champion's Mercedes gear for years now naturally had to switch sides with their idol. The demand for caps and shirts with the starting number 44 was huge. Unfortunately, the new Ferrari Formula 1 collection was not yet available in time for the start of work shortly after the turn of the year.

Queues in front of the Ferrari stands

It was only shortly before the start of the season that equipment supplier Puma began to meet demand and supply dealers. Anyone who was there in Melbourne could see huge crowds of people in front of the Ferrari stands in Albert Park. Ferrari has always been the most popular team in the Formula 1 field in Australia, but with Lewis Hamilton, sales increased considerably once again.

The renowned British portal "SportBusiness" has learned from sources at Puma that merchandising sales have increased eightfold in the first few months of this year compared to the same period last year. Of course, a large proportion of this revenue goes directly back to Ferrari in the form of license fees. This means that a considerable portion of the driver's salary, estimated at over 50 million euros, has probably already been recouped.

Ferrari's F1 income explodes

Ferrari's cash registers were already ringing last season. With HP, the Scuderia found a new title sponsor before the Miami Grand Prix, which alone is expected to bring in more than half of the permitted budget cap expenditure (approx. 140 million US dollars). During the winter break, a major deal was then concluded with the Italian UniCredit bank.

Second place in the team standings also contributed to the increase in revenue. According to the official bonus key, the Scuderia is now entitled to 242 million dollars - 34 million more than in the previous year. The explosion in revenue and the spending limits that apply to all teams ensure that Ferrari makes a tidy profit with the Formula 1 team and that the project no longer has a negative impact on the balance sheet as marketing expenses, as was previously the case.

https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/formel-1/ferrari-merchandising-puma-zahlen-zum-hamilton-effekt/?_gl=1*4s22hz*_ga*VGVwNVJMUGFDUi1FTVNJMXZsa241Q2tkRThISWVEZy01dkZxWUp4OGtzeFVUaFFDQmUwMDdPcWZ0Y09ST0I0ZA..#google_vignette

From now on, I will regularly analyze interesting or simply forgotten stocks - with a view to opportunities, risks and valuation. Today's focus: PUMA SE, a sporting goods giant with challenges, but also potential. ->$PUM (-1,99%)

🔍 Disclaimer: No investment advice - just my personal assessment. Please do your own research!

PUMA SE is one of the world's leading sporting goods manufacturers and competes with industry giants such as Nike and Adidas. While the company has a strong long-term market position, the share price has suffered considerable losses in recent months. This report analyzes PUMA's current situation, the most important challenges and the valuation of the share from a fundamental perspective.

1. fundamentals and current business development

In financial year 2024, PUMA recorded currency-adjusted sales growth of 4.4% to around €9.1 billion. Despite a challenging market environment, the company was able to increase its gross profit margin to 47.7%, underlining the brand's resilience. The operating result (EBIT) remained stable at 620 million euros.

Nevertheless, there was a slowdown in growth compared to previous years. Developments in the EMEA region (Europe, Middle East and Africa) were particularly challenging, while the markets in North and Latin America delivered solid results.

2 Challenges and strategic measures

PUMA is facing several challenges that require both operational and strategic adjustments:

- Weakening consumer sentiment: ongoing uncertainty due to global economic fluctuations and high inflation rates is dampening the purchasing power of many consumers.

- Geopolitical risks: Trade conflicts and currency fluctuations have a noticeable impact on margins and sales growth.

- Increasing efficiency and cutting costs: PUMA has announced plans to cut around 500 jobs worldwide and restructure unprofitable business units. These measures are intended to improve profitability in the long term.

Despite these challenges, PUMA remains strategically focused on growth. The focus is on strengthening direct sales channels (e-commerce and flagship stores) and on partnerships in the sports and lifestyle sector.

3. valuation of the share - undervalued or fairly priced?

PUMA shares have lost considerable value in recent months and are currently trading close to a multi-year low.

- The current price is around EUR 23.68, which corresponds to a fall of almost 55% from the 52-week high of EUR 52.96.

- The average analyst price target is EUR 33.95, with a range of EUR 25 to EUR 50.

- The P/E ratio (price/earnings ratio) for 2025 is estimated at around 16, which appears relatively low by historical standards.

Some analysts argue that the share could be undervalued due to the solid brand strength and long-term growth prospects. However, others continue to see risks, particularly if the weak consumer environment persists for longer.

4 Conclusion - opportunities and risks for investors

PUMA is undoubtedly a strongly positioned company with global brand recognition. In the short term, the market environment remains challenging, especially due to macroeconomic uncertainties. However, investors with a long-term investment horizon could see attractive entry opportunities if they believe in the long-term recovery of the sporting goods industry.

For investors considering a position in PUMA, it remains crucial to closely monitor the upcoming quarterly results and the progress of the restructuring measures.

In the long term 😏

The Puma $PUM (-1,99%) share has lost well over three quarters of its value since its peak a good three years ago. Following a weak forecast for the current year, the share price fell by a further 22 percent to 22.16 euros at the start of trading on Wednesday.

The reasons:

1. sales are growing, but slowly

2. the brand needs to be positioned at a higher level

3. complex structures and outdated IT

4. the share price is falling and falling

Among other things, a shoe that is supposed to make Puma "cool" and attractive again is now supposed to help: "Speedcat"

The now 25-year-old shoe with a flat sole is said to be all the rage in Asian pioneer markets such as South Korea. The successes that Adidas $ADS (-0,74%) is currently achieving with the retro bestseller "Samba" , Puma wants to inherit with "Speedcat".

Source (excerpt): Handelsblatt & Welt