1 - Opinion (not that some users cry again in the comments that a market forecast includes a forecast on Trump)
2 - SPX chart
3 - Which stocks are interesting
1 - So there's the tariff hammer and the crash. What now?
Trump's team is probably relying on the typical crash mechanisms.
The investors with the most capital can buy much longer and more in this crash and are not as affected by price losses due to their wealth. This means that the top 0.1% of the US will also benefit the most from this crash, so there are unlikely to be any major complaints from the US elite.
According to Project 2025, however, the plan for the next few years is to make the USA less dependent on foreign markets (rather stupid, as the United States exerts influence through the strength of its economy even without using the military)
To what extent this should and can be implemented is questionable for me, because American companies are only as valuable as long as they sell globally.
Here, the upper class will not sit around and wait for the basis of their wealth to be removed, especially if the rest of the world continues to act more or less globally.
So for me this attempt is more of a medium-term thing, either until Trump fires his advisors, until America gets rid of Trump or until they change their minds.
2 - Only the absolute basics $CSPX (+0,3%)
Forward path:
As the SPX is massively dependent on technology stocks ->
It could also soon become very difficult with the suspected EU tariffs on services and a 50% increase in Chinese tariffs in the entire technology sector.
How much is questionable, however, as tariffs can also be lifted from one day to the next...
- Upward trend of all averages broken
- Completely failed almost to the 2022 high/ 50% FIB
There is now upside potential in the short term, but with Trump's momentum on tariffs, it may simply go back to the 4500 area on bad news.
In the medium term, it looks particularly volatile due to Trump, I can imagine that we will see 4000 this year. But maybe Trump will back down (edit, 3 hours later: yes he will. As I said: volatility)
3 - Interesting stocks for me:
China $1810 (+2,85%) ...
USA $SQ (+1,43%) buy before the next trend in case of strong price losses
Japan $8001 (+0,89%) diversified like hardly any other company
EU $AIR (+0,21%) Defense boom take the next few years with the most normal valuation
I would take a more relaxed approach to buying dips in the near future, otherwise the cash will be gone very quickly.
