A Tale of Downfall and Rise – From Crash Landing to Cruising Altitude?
Boeing. Yes, the same Boeing that’s been a synonym for chaos, tariffs, and regulatory smackdowns all year. The same Boeing that gets constantly mocked for their safety guidelines and quality demise. The same Boeing that lost out the two-way battle against Airbus a long time ago. Has it though? The stock was left for dead not too long ago, down at frightening low levels around $138. At that point, Boeing’s planes weren’t the only thing hitting ground. But the key difference? The passengers riding the stock didn’t die, they came out stronger and almost twice as rich. If we fast forward a few months the stock is comfortably floating around 55% above those lows, now sitting comfortably above $215. That’s not a typo. And that’s after a recent descend from almost $240.
So what happened? Did Boeing suddenly become a flawless operator overnight? Of course not. On paper, the company is still troubled. But let’s remind ourselves that the thing the market cares most about is noise and buzz. And, believe me, Boeing offers a lot of that.
First, orders. Big sovereign orders always make headlines, like Uzbekistan grabbing 14 Dreamliners with options for more, plus rumors of even bigger deals (Turkey, China). These things move markets because many algorithms don’t care about nuance, they just see “aircraft order” and hit buy. Neither do some retail investors, it seems. Another factor is Airbus’ oversubscription. They can hardly fill orders and their books are full for years ahead. Boeing, on the other hand, has had a few “down years,” not just due to mismanagement but also because of some, let’s call it, reliability issues. The main difference between the two aircraft giants: Airbus doesn’t really lose doors mid-flight. Or randomly discover production defects in fuselages that ground half the fleet. Or deliver jets with engines that need fixing before they even take off.
Second, the FAA actually gave back some trust — restoring parts of Boeing’s certification authority. That’s huge. For years they were basically treated like a drunk driver with their keys confiscated. Now they’re allowed back in the car, at least partially. That speeds up deliveries and reassures investors that maybe, just maybe, Boeing isn’t an eternal basket case.
Third, deliveries are improving. Planes are finally rolling out of factories instead of collecting dust on tarmacs. Deliveries equal cash. Cash equals Wall Street applause. Simple math. As previously mentioned, Boeing’s key issue over the last years was mismanagement. And incompetence leads to problems. These seem to clear off slowly at the moment.
And let’s not forget the setup: the earlier YTD nosedive was tariff-driven, courtesy of Trump’s usual trade-war fireworks with China. That was the panic backdrop that made the bounce look even more violent. When the bar is set at “dumpster fire,” it doesn’t take much to impress. Also, it’s important to mention that Trump is a two-bladed sword: Yes, he caused the tariff selloff, but he also gave Boeing the final push to the sky with the announcement of the F-47 contract going to the troubled manufacturer. Simultaneously, he sent Lockheed right next to Boeing’s previous crash site.
So where does that leave us? Somewhere between reality and hype. Yes, Boeing is legitimately improving. Yes, new orders and regulatory easing are real positives. But let’s not act like all of Boeing’s issues are magically fixed. A 70% move is part fundamentals, part narrative exuberance. Interestingly enough, over-exuberance is a concept very prevalent in today’s market.
