Today on the way back from La Spezia (Leonardo $LDO (+0,63%) and Rheinmetall $RHM (+0%) greetings) on the Italian highway, I overtook four convoys of brand new military IVECOs. $IVG (+0,61%) overtaken. 2x German army and 2x Lithuanian army.

And since I was a passenger princess at the time, I used the time for an IVECO deep dive.

In short: EV/EBITDA < 4, KGV ≈ 7, FCF-Rendite > 11 % - classic deep value signature. Weak equity base prevents an outright "10 out of 10", but the 30% discount to conservative fair value, combined with positive cash generation and dividend proposal make IVECO quite attractive. Currently practically at a price of 70 cents per euro per euro. And in view of the current security policy situation, that is still conservative.

#iveco
#defense
#deepvalue

$CVX (-0,66%)
$SIE (+0,35%)
$SHOP (-0,16%)
$LDO (+0,63%)
$SHEL (+0,05%)
$AMZN (-0,1%)
$IRM (+1,1%)
$MAIN (+1,18%)
$LBW (-0,81%)

#nachkauf
#kauf
#investieren

Trump - the best sales guy the European defense industry has ever had.

Speaking of fighter aircraft: did I already mention that Saab ($SAAB B (-2,52%)) not only has its own platforms such as the Gripen fighter jet, but is also involved in the modernization of the European Eurofighter ($AIR (-0,11%) - $LDO (+0,63%) - $BA. (+0,02%)) fleets and the construction of the upcoming latest "Eurofighter EK" models?

• Saab erhält Auftrag für das Arexis-Sensorsystem für die deutschen Eurofighter

It's time for Kötbullar again.

https://www.threads.net/@factpostnews/post/DHd5i5NP3oJ?xmt=AQGzf0-FdZSjf3thHE2npei2poyIa3oUkqf-v3mHrOfKvQ

#trump
#eurofighter
$LMT (+1,84%)
#f35
$BA (-0,18%)
#f47

Minimizing the US cluster risk is currently a major topic for investors. It is perhaps even THE topic since the second Trump administration has been throwing tariffs and isolationist positions around.

As part of an incipient reallocation in the portfolio $DFEN (-0,89%) and $ASWC (-0,3%) recently, but was bothered by the high proportion of US shares and the heavy weighting of Blackbox $PLTR (+7,32%) among others.

Today I stumbled across the recently launched ETF from WisdomTree, which compiles purely European defense companies: $IE0002Y8CX98 (-0,34%)

Some quick raw data:

Listed for the first time on 3/4/2025

TER: 0.4% p.a.

Physical

Accumulating

WKN: A40Y9K

IE0002Y8CX98

Largest positions:

Rheinmetall (approx. 20%) $RHM (+0%) 🇩🇪

Leonardo (approx. 15%) $LDO (+0,63%) 🇮🇹

Saab (approx. 10%) $SAAB B (-2,52%) 🇸🇪

BAE (approx. 10%) $BAE (+0%) 🇬🇧

Thales (approx. 9%) $THALES (-0,14%) 🇫🇷

This investor will reallocate a little. He is not giving investment advice, but rather enjoying the diversity of Europe. 🇪🇺

Sources:

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/etfs/thematic/wdef---wisdomtree-europe-defence-ucits-etf---eur-acc

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/strategies/european-defence

https://www.justetf.com/de/etf-profile.html?isin=IE0002Y8CX98#chart

https://www.computerbild.de/artikel/cb-News-Finanzen-Erster-ETF-fuer-europaeische-Verteidigung-39553857.html

Current share price and chart analysis ($LDO (+0,63%) )

• Current price (EUR): 47.74 € (as of March 18, 2025, 19:43 UTC)
• Technical analysis (1-year chart):
• Trend: The price shows a strong upward trend with an increase of over 116% in the last year.

Resistance and support levels:

• Resistance (R1): € 52.04
• Support (S1): € 45.32
• Indicators: The price is currently close to the upper end of the Bollinger band, indicating a possible overbought situation.
• Potential entry points: A pullback to the support level at €45.32 could be a good entry point, especially if the price remains stable there.

Fundamental key figures

• Valuation Metrics (2024):
• P/E ratio (PE ratio): 29.55 (relatively high, possible overvaluation compared to the sector average exceptions ($RHM (+0%) ) )
• P/B ratio (PB ratio): 3.03 (moderate)
• P/E ratio (PS ratio): 1.99 (acceptable)
• Enterprise value: € 29.3 billion
• Growth metrics (2024):
• Sales growth: 16.17% (strong)
• Net income growth: 63.22% (very strong)
• EPS growth: 64.04% (robust)
• Financial health (2024):
• Current ratio: 0.97 (slightly below the ideal value of 1:1, possible liquidity problems)
• Debt to equity ratio: 0.52 (balanced)
• Return on equity (ROE): 10.65% (moderate)
• Return on invested capital (ROIC): 3.56 % (efficient, but room for improvement)

Influence of the key figures on the valuation

• ValuationThe high P/E ratio indicates a possible overvaluation, which could make investors cautious. However, the strong growth in sales and profits partially justifies the higher valuation.
• Growth: The strong growth rates in sales, net income and EPS are positive and support the current valuation.
• Financial healthThe slightly low current ratio could signal short-term liquidity problems, while the moderate leverage and return on equity indicate a solid capital structure.

Business model and strategic initiatives

• IndustriesLeonardo is active in helicopters, defense electronics, aerostructures and aerospace.
• Strategy: Investments in cyber security and digitalization as well as international alliances strengthen the competitive position.
• Future prospects: The updated industry project for 2025-2029 forecasts cumulative orders of €118 billion and sales of €106 billion.

Risks and uncertainties

• Market volatility: Geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions could impact performance.
• Valuation: The high P/E ratio could lead to price corrections in the event of negative market developments.
• Liquidity: The slightly low current ratio requires close monitoring of the short-term financial situation.

Conclusion and recommendation

Leonardo S.p.A. shows a strong financial performance and strategic initiatives that position the company well for future growth. However, investors should keep an eye on the high valuation and potential liquidity problems. An entry on a pullback to the support level of €45.32 could represent an attractive opportunity.

It seems like my post about Europas F-35-Sicherheitsdilemma could not have come at a better time:

Dependence on US armaments is increasingly perceived as a risk factor for Europe's military and security sovereignty and is now being publicly addressed at the highest political level faster than I would have expected.

French President Emmanuel Macron

President of France Emmanuel Macron has made it clear in an interview with Le Parisien that he is critical of Europe's purchase and use of US armaments and proposed replacing them with European alternatives.

Macron was also quite clear: "Those who buy Patriot systems should be offered the next generation of the Franco-Italian SAMP/T. Those who buy F-35s should be offered the Rafale fighter aircraft."

His main concern is greater strategic autonomy for Europe:

• Criticism of US systems: Poland plans to buy American F-35 fighter jets ($LMT (+1,84%)) and Patriot ($RYTT34). Macron questions these decisions and proposes European solutions.
• European optionsMacron specifically mentions approaches such as joint European development projects to reduce dependence on the USA. Examples include European fighter jets such as Saab Gripen ($SAAB B (-2,52%)), Eurofighter ($AIR (-0,11%) - $BA. (+0,02%) - $MTX (-0,24%) - $LDO (+0,63%)) or Dassault
  Rafale ($AM (-0,5%)) or air defense systems (e.g. SAMP/T from $HO (-0,35%), $BA. (+0,02%), $AIR (-0,11%) and $LDO (+0,63%) or Oerlikon Skynex from $RHM (+0%)).
• Long-term strategyMacron's proposals aim to strengthen Europe's military independence by pooling technology, production capacities and resources in the EU member states' own economic area in the long term.

Macron is thus sending a clear signal for more European cooperation in the defense sector and against an excessive focus on US technology.

#emmanuelmacron
#usa
#defense
#verteidigung
#rüstungsindustrie
#europa
$R3NK (+1,61%)
$IE0002Y8CX98 (-0,34%)
$HAG (+0,9%)