Hello everyone,

how do you see the technological strengths/weaknesses of European armor values, such as $RHM (-6,84%) , $LDO (-8,27%) , $BA. (-4,92%)
$AIR (-1,71%) in direct comparison and in comparison to American counterparts like $LMT (+2,14%) ?

Do we Europeans have any chance at all of keeping up? Where are we perhaps even pioneers? What is missing?

Open discussion

A little update on current events: I took a look at the largest defense companies in Europe and thought it might be of interest to you.

So here's a brief overview of the ten most important players - with a few basics about the companies, their figures (turnover, valuation, etc.) and an assessment of how much potential they still have.

These companies are currently the focus of the armaments boom and are very popular with many investors.

➡️ BAE Systems (UK) $BA. (-4,92%) - British defense technology

• P/E RATIO (P/E): approx. 21.7 on a trailing basis; expected ~19.4 (2025e)
• P/E RATIO (P/S): approx. 1.60 current; expected ~1.37 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: ~2.2 % (annual dividend ~31 pence)
• Share price (March 2025): ~£14.07 (approx. €16)
• Market capitalization~£42 billion
• Outlook: Solid sales growth (~+5% expected for 2025)
• Analysts mostly with Buy-recommendation (11 buy, 5 hold, 1 sell)

📈 Rating:

BAE Systems appears to be fairly valued at the current fairly valued to slightly favorable. The P/E ratio in the low 20s already reflects good business figures, but is in line with the industry as a whole

In view of rising defense spending and a solid order situation, moderate growth is expected, which underpins the valuation. The share is therefore considered neither highly overpriced nor a bargain - with slight upside potential. upside potential thanks to sustained demand in the defense sector.

➡️ Airbus (Defense & Space, EU)
$AIR (-1,71%) - European aerospace group

• P/E RATIO (P/E): ~30.9 current; expected ~24.9 (2025e)
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~1.89 current; expected ~1.73 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: ~1.5 % (incl. special dividend; regular ~1.1 %)
• Share price: ~165 €
• Market capitalization: ~131 bn €
• Outlook: Civil and military aircraft demand high; 2025 delivery target raised
• Analyst consensus positive (price targets ø ~€182, ~+10% upside)

📈 Valuation:

Airbus is primarily rated as fair to slightly fair to slightly demanding valuation is seen as fair to slightly demanding. The high current P/E ratio ~31 reflects pandemic-related earnings weakness, but should fall significantly in 2025.

At a P/E ratio of ~1.8, the sales valuation is moderate. As production and profits are likely to increase in the coming years, the share appears reasonably valued. Greater share price potential depends on growth (e.g. higher jet deliveries); if this is successfully realized, the valuation could prove to be justified be justified.

➡️ Leonardo S.p.A. (Italy)
$LDO (-8,27%) - Italian defense and aerospace group

• P/E RATIO (P/E): ~22.5 current; expected ~20.6 (2025e)
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~1.35 current; expected ~1.17 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: ~0.7 % (share price € 38.56, dividend € 0.28)
• Share price: ~38-39 €; Market capitalization: ~21 bn €
• Outlook: Strong order situation due to defense technology (market cap. +100 % in 12 months)
• Analysts see further upside potential; earnings estimates moderately rising (double-digit sales margins).

📈 Valuation:

Leonardo appears favorably valued compared to the industry favorably to fairly valued. With a P/E ratio of around 20 and a P/E ratio of ~1.3, the valuation is below that of many Western European peers. The low dividend yield reflects a strategy focused more on reinvestment.

In view of double-digit growth (share price +~100 % YoY), there could still be upside potential upside potential if margins continue to rise. Overall, the moderate valuation level suggests that Leonardo is rather slightly undervalued provided that growth in defense electronics and aerospace continues.

➡️ Thales S.A. (France) $THALES (+1,42%) - Defense Electronics, Aeronautics & Security

• P/E RATIO (P/E): ~28.5 current; expected ~24.3 (2025e)
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~2.0 current; expected ~1.9 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: ~1.8 % (rising towards ~2 % expected)
• Share price: ~197,7 €
• Market capitalization: ~39 bn €
• Outlook: Solid sales growth (orders in defense and cybersecurity). 2024/25 profit increase expected (forward P/E <25)
• Analysts mostly positive (stable business areas, diversification).

📈Valuation:

With a P/E ratio close to 28, Thales is listed at the upper end of the industry scale, but this is partly justified by the stable earnings situation and growth in the civil electronics business. The P/E ratio of ~2 signals that investors are paying slightly more for sales than for pure defense companies - a premium for the profitable cyber/digital business. Overall, the share appears fairly valuedalthough not cheap.

Since Thales, as a broad-based technology group, is benefiting from rising defense budgets, the current valuation seems justifiable; there is further growth potential. growth potential growth potential exists, but larger share price gains are likely to be linked to higher-than-expected earnings growth.

➡️ Rheinmetall AG (Germany)
$RHM (-6,84%) - Vehicle and weapon systems, ammunition

• P/E RATIO (P/E)very high, ~76.9 current (TTM); expected ~51.8 (2025e)
• (current profits depressed by investments).
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~4.95 current; expected ~4.37 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: only ~0.6 % (5.70 € div. / share price ~1006 €)
• Share price: ~1.040 €; Market capitalization~44 bn €
• Outlook: Extraordinary sales growth expected - forecast for 2025 raised to € 11-12 bn sales (compared to ~€ 7 bn in 2023)
• Investors have already strongly priced in this expectation (share price > €1000; +≈50% in 6 months)

📈Valuation:

After the rapid rise in the share price, Rheinmetall appears very ambitiously valued. Although the current P/E ratio (>75) is not very meaningful due to extraordinary costs, even the forward P/E ratio of around 52 signals high expectations

The low dividend yield and P/E ratio of ~5 underline that the share is already anticipating a major future jump in sales and earnings. If Rheinmetall achieves its optimistic growth targets (keyword: special assets of the German armed forces, NATO orders), the key figures could fall in the future. Until then, however, the share is considered overvalued - Investors are paying a high price for the growth potential. The upside potential is therefore subject to risks; setbacks in major orders could lead to corrections.

➡️ Dassault Aviation (France) $DAU - Fighter aircraft (Rafale) & business jets

• P/E RATIO (P/E): ~24.1 current; expected ~21.4 (2025e)
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~3.8 current; expected ~3.2 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: ~1.37 % (div. € 3.37 at share price ~€ 246)
• Share price: ~249 €
• Market capitalization: ~19 billion €
• Outlook: Increasing export demand for Rafale jets and growing business with private jets. Analysts expect profit growth in the coming years (P/E ratio declining <22). Participation in Thales provides strategic added value.

📈Valuation:

Dassault Aviation appears to be moderately valued. The current P/E ratio of ~24 is in the mid-range and the company has little debt, which puts the higher P/E ratio (~3.8) into perspective. Investors are paying a premium for the high net cash position and future major orders (fighter jets).

Overall, the share is considered fairly valued - neither obviously undervalued nor too expensive. In view of the stable margins and special role (high-end military aircraft), a slightly higher sales multiple is justifiable. The growth potential (e.g. through defense projects and new Falcon business jets) could provide medium-term share price momentum without the valuation getting out of hand.

➡️ Saab AB (Sweden)
$SAAB B (-3,46%) - Defense systems, aircraft (Gripen) & security

• P/E RATIO (P/E): ~40.9 current; expected ~32.0 (2025e)
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~2.7 current; expected ~2.3 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: ~0.7 % (estimate) - Saab pays out small amounts every six months due to dividends.
• Share price~320 SEK (Swedish krona);
• Market capitalizationSEK ~173 bn (approx. € 15-16 bn)
• OutlookStrong order backlog (e.g. fighter aircraft, submarines). For 2025, 12-16% organic sales growth is forecast with disproportionately high EBIT growth. Analysts mostly Buy (5 Buy, 2 Hold) - they are counting on a catch-up effect in margins.

📈Valuation:

Saab is currently quite highly valuedwhich reflects the future opportunities. A P/E ratio of ~41 is above average for defense companies and signals that current profits are (still) low - in fact, Saab invests heavily in development, which squeezes margins. The price/sales ratio of ~2.7, on the other hand, is roughly comparable with other aerospace companies. Should the envisaged double-digit growth materialize and profitability increase, the valuation will be put into perspective (forward P/E ~32).

However, the company is currently paying an advance on future profits, so that Saab is rather slightly overvalued is slightly overvalued. The growth potential (in particular through higher defence spending in Scandinavia and new Gripen export orders) is high - if it is realized, the valuation should return to a normal range in a few years.

➡️ Rolls-Royce Holdings (UK) $RR. (-1,2%) - Engines for civil aviation & military, energy

• P/E RATIO (P/E)~25 (TTM) according to current share price; profits are returning after years of losses.
• P/E RATIO (P/S)~3.3 (based on Feb. 2025)
• Dividend yield: 0 % (dividend suspended since 2020)
• Share price: ~£6.20 (approx. €7.35; equivalent to ~$9.35)
• Market capitalization: ~$79.5 billion (≈ £52 billion)
• Outlook: Turnaround underway - profit growth expected again from 2025 after restructuring. Analysts are optimistic (12 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell) and see long-term upside potential of ~5% above current levels. High debt remains a risk, but commercial engine maintenance contracts and defense division provide cash flow.

📈Valuation:

After the share price multiplier in 2023 (share price +~245 % in 2023), Rolls-Royce is now no longer clearly undervalued. The P/E ratio of ~25 looks moderate, but it should be borne in mind that this is based on the recently positive earnings - margins are still low.

The sales valuation at approx. 3.3 times sales is in the midfield between classic defense and civil aircraft manufacturers. Without a dividend and with a debt burden, Rolls must first prove that the turnaround is sustainable. Overall, the share is currently fair to slightly overvalued as there is a lot of future potential (e.g. new generations of engines, small modular reactors) in the share price. If the hoped-for jump in profits is achieved in the next few years, Rolls-Royce could catch up further - however, the current upside potential is rather limited. limitedas long as tangible results are awaited.

➡️ Safran S.A. (France)
$SAF (-3,89%) - Engines (e.g. CFM), aviation supplier

• P/E RATIO (P/E): n/a (TTM negative - recent loss or special effect); to 2025e about ~31.7
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~3.76 current; expected ~3.35 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: ~1.7% (dividend ~€3.50 p.a.)
• Share price: ~255 €
• Market capitalization: ~102 bn €
• Outlook: Safran suffered from one-off costs in 2024 (engine issue), but expects solid profits again. 2025 earnings per share should increase significantly (P/E normalized ~32).
• Analysts are divided: ~13 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell - the majority see further share price potential, as Safran benefits in the long term as a high-quality supplier (duopoly with GE in aircraft engines).

📈Valuation:

Safran appears distorted by the disclosure of a loss (negative TTM P/E ratio), in fact the share is highly valued on the basis of the underlying earnings power. A forward P/E ratio of over 30 and P/E ratio close to 4 are well above the sector average, which anticipates the market position and growth opportunities (increasing aircraft production, maintenance business). The dividend yield is relatively low at <2%.

Overall, Safran is probably rather overvalued investors are paying a premium for quality and market position. The growth potential (recovery in aviation, new engine programs) does exist, but is largely priced into the share price. Setbacks could ease the valuation somewhat; in the long term, however, Safran remains an expensive but very solid value.

➡️ Hensoldt AG (Germany) $HAG (-12,75%) - Specialist for sensor and radar technology

• P/E RATIO (P/E)extremely high (TTM >400) due to low profits; forward P/E 2025e approx. 36-37
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~3.0 currently
• Dividend yield: ~0.7 % (expected dividend € 0.40)
• Share price: ~52 €; Market capitalization: ~6 bn €
• Outlook: In high demand as an electronics supplier to the German armed forces (radar, night vision, avionics). Incoming orders from the German special fund and NATO programs will increase sales significantly in the coming years. However, Hensoldt is still in the start-up phase - profit margins are only expected to increase significantly in the medium term.

📈Valuation:

After a sharp rise in the share price, Hensoldt is clearly expensive. The current P/E ratio is hardly reasonable (triple-digit due to special effects in the balance sheet); even on a forward basis, it is in the high 30s, which is high even for high-growth tech stocks.

Investors are therefore paying in advance for expected future profits. The KUV ~3 reflects the enormous sales growth, but is not low for a defense electronics specialist. The low dividend yield shows that profits are being retained. Overall, the share seems overvalued - the high momentum (+54 % last year) already largely prices in future growth. Although Hensoldt has excellent growth prospects (digitization of defence, networking), but these would first have to translate into significantly higher profits to justify the current valuation. An entry is therefore considered speculative, as setbacks are possible if expectations are not met.

👉 Conclusion:

Europe's largest defense companies are benefiting from the rearmament cycle, which is reflected in higher valuations in some cases. Undervalued Leonardo appears undervalued in this group (thanks to more favorable ratios), while established companies such as BAE, Airbus, Thales and Dassault are largely fairly valued. fairly valued appear to be fairly valued.

Stocks with a turnaround character (Rolls-Royce) or a high future share (Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, Safran, Saab) show higher multiples and tend to be considered overvalued. overvaluedas a lot of growth is anticipated.

The growth potential is high across the industry - higher defense budgets, technology purchases and retrofitting requirements are keeping order books full. The decisive factor for further share price increases will be whether companies can translate these growth opportunities into rising profits in order to put the ambitious valuations into perspective.

$BA. (-4,92%) Does anyone know the reason for the sharp fall in BAE Systems' share price? If I'm not mistaken, the company is quite well positioned. Is it perhaps because it is based in a non-EU country?

I can imagine that for the latter reason, investors are more likely to go for EU companies (e.g. BAE Systems). $LDO (-8,27%) ).