As every week, the most important news from the past week.

Tuesday:

The takeover of $CBK (+0,17%) Commerzbank against its will by $UNCRY (+0,28%) Unicredit seems to be only a matter of time. Unicredit announces today that it has increased its stake to 34%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/commerzbank-unicredit-erhoeht-anteil-auf-mehr-als-34-prozent/100229720.html

Friday:

The US labor market created significantly more jobs than expected. A total of 172,000 jobs were created outside the agricultural sector in May. Economists had forecast only 85,000 jobs. The figures for March and April were also revised upwards by a total of 100,000 jobs.

http://manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/usa-arbeitsmarkt-schafft-doppelt-so-viele-jobs-wie-erwartet-a-60edbf22-66b5-4b30-82c5-9eefe639de2f

The Space X IPO is twice oversubscribed despite a trillion-euro valuation. We understand the hype, but from an empirical point of view at least, the IPO is not a good time to get in. However, it is also possible that the hype will never die down.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/aktien/ipo-spacex-boersengang-offenbar-bereits-zweifach-ueberzeichnet/100230743.html

Hello everyone.

My girlfriend still owns some $CBK (+0,17%) shares.

She has now been offered an exchange for $UCG (+0,07%) shares from ING.

However, the letter offers an exchange ratio of 1 to 0.485.

If I now apply my rudimentary knowledge of calculators, the exchange factor should be 1 to 0.521.

Since the ING offer gives you fewer shares of $UCG (+0,07%) this would be a minus transaction in purely mathematical terms if my friend were to convert.

Or am I making a blatant error in my thinking?

Regards Carsten

Transportation

Utilities

Social affairs

Digital

Future needs until 2040

Private Markets Infrastructure

Modernization

Infrastructure programs

Link: https://shorturl.at/maYS2

$IFX (+2,45%)
$NDA (+0,2%)
$ENR (+1,27%)
$SIE (+0,12%)
$DEZ (+0,36%)
$TKA (+0,11%)
$CBK (+0,17%)
$NKT (+0,26%)
$DHL (+0,25%)
$NEM (-0,27%)
$BZU (+0,18%)
$DBK (+0,41%)
$SPIE (+0,17%)
$ELI (+0,15%)
$GBF (+0,28%)

15 increases

13 unchanged

7 reductions

Insurance companies

Banks

Utilities

Car stocks

Type here if you like collecting dividends: https://shorturl.at/83W8R

$MBG (+0,12%)
$ALV (+0,19%)
$VOW3 (+0,06%)
$MUV2 (+0,13%)
$BMW (+0,13%)
$AIR (-0,2%)
$CBK (+0,17%)
$523232
$DTG (-0,12%)
$DHL (+0,25%)
$FME (-0,05%)
$FRE (+0,37%)
$HNR1 (+0,13%)
$MTX (+0,42%)
$RHM (-0,77%)
$SAP (+0,16%)
$ENR (+1,27%)
$BAS (-0,52%)
$BAYN (+0,29%)
$BEI (+0,07%)
$DBK (+0,41%)
$DTE (+0,04%)
$EOAN (+0,15%)
$GEA (+0%)
$IFX (+2,45%)
$RWE (+0,05%)
$SY1 (+0,2%)
$ZAL (+0,59%)
$ADS (-0,05%)
$BNR (+0,07%)
$HEN (+0,12%)
$MRK (+0,3%)
$SIE (+0,12%)
$SHL (+0,77%)

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/fhs9j54dHlw?is=Cp2tXUbrfgPRWEaL

Monday:

Unicredit $UCG (+0,07%) Unicredit makes a hostile takeover bid for Germany's second-largest bank, forcing Commerzbank to the negotiating table. $CBK (+0,17%) Commerzbank to the negotiating table. Unicredit joined Commerzbank in September 2024 and now holds more than 30% of the shares. However, in addition to the management and employees, the German government is also opposed to a transaction. The German government holds 12% of the shares.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/commerzbank-unicredit-legt-uebernahmeangebot-vor/100208730.html

The photo book service provider $CWC (+0,11%) Cewe from Oldenburg is planning its 17th dividend increase (rare in Germany). The dividend is to rise from 2.85 euros to 3 euros per share. Turnover and EBIT increased in the single-digit percentage range.

https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten-amp/EQS-Adhoc-CEWE-Stiftung-und-Co-KGaA-CEWE-plant-17-Dividendensteigerung-in-Folge/38186018

Tuesday:

'Special assets' is not only the bad word of the year 2025, it is also the epitome of the state's lack of responsibility with regard to disenchantment with politics. Contrary to what was announced, studies by ifo and IW now show that the majority of 'assets' were not invested in infrastructure, but were used to plug budget holes.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/bundesregierung-studien-sondervermoegen-fast-komplett-zweckentfremdet/100209067.html

The week of interest rate decisions - the Reserve Bank of Australia raises key interest rates from 3.85% to 4.1% due to high inflation expectations in the wake of the Iran war. This is the second rate hike in a row. The decision was very close, with 5 votes to 4. However, the question was not whether interest rates should be raised, but when.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/geldpolitik-australische-zentralbank-fuerchtet-inflation-durch-iran-krieg/100209080.html

Wednesday:

The Fed leaves the key interest rate constant at a range of 3.5 - 3.75%. In addition, the US central bank leaves itself open to lowering interest rates again this year, even if the Iran war fuels inflation concerns.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/leitzins-us-notenbank-fed-verlaengert-zinspause/100208668.html

Thursday:

The Bank of England also leaves interest rates at the same level. The vote was unanimous.

https://www.finanzen.net/amp/keine-veraenderung-boe-zinsentscheid-britische-notenbank-laesst-leitzins-unveraendert-15565547

The ECB acted in the same way, leaving the key interest rate at 2%. However, the markets expect that the ECB will soon have to raise interest rates. As a result, bond yields are already rising.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/ezb-zinsentscheid-zinsen-im-euro-raum-bleiben-vorerst-konstant/100209117.html

The most important dates in the coming week:

Tuesday: 10:00 HCOB data (EU)

Tuesday: 14:45 S&P Global data (USA)

Wednesday: 10:00 ifo current assessment (DE)

#hcob
#eu
#sandp
#usa
#ifo

Can you think of any other dates?

The time has come! The cards are on the table! The $UCG (+0,07%) wants to take over $CBK (+0,17%) for around €30.80 (in the form of UniCredit shares).

I myself am a UC investor and have profited handsomely from the investment. In this role, I'm delighted about the offer, because it means UniCredit can continue to grow and become a really big bank!

What do you think? 😎

The military escalation between the USA, Israel and Iran is causing strong market movements worldwide. Investors are shifting out of cyclical sectors and into security, energy and defense.

_________________________

Bitcoin $BTC (-1,03%) shows surprising stability

• 📈 In the meantime +8,1 %
• 💰 Just over 70,000 dollars
• Stabilization at around 69,000 dollars

Despite geopolitical risks, Bitcoin is apparently being used as a liquidity parking lot in the short term. At the same time, volatility remains high - further escalations could trigger new spikes.

_________________________

🛢 Oil prices up significantly

• Brent: + just under 6 %
• WTI: + a good 5 %
• In the meantime even +13 %

According to the report, the USA is currently no release from the strategic oil reserve. The market is still considered to be supplied, but the situation remains tense.

_________________________

🏦 Banks under pressure

The European banking index loses around 3,5 % - sharpest decline since April 2025.

Particularly affected:

• HSBC - $HSBA (+1,33%)
• Barclays - $BARC (+0,25%)
• Standard Chartered - $STAN (-1,15%)
• Deutsche Bank - $DBK (+0,41%)
• BNP Paribas - $BNP (+0,03%)
• BBVA - $BBVA (-0,27%)
• Commerzbank - $CBK (+0,17%)

In the USA also weaker until the US opening:

• Bank of America - $BAC (-0,24%)
• Citigroup - $C (+0,04%)

Reason: Strong Middle East business of many institutions and general risk aversion of investors.

_________________________

✈️ Travel industry collapses

High oil prices and uncertainty weigh heavily on tourism stocks:

• TUI - $TUI1 (+0,16%) (-11 %)
• Lufthansa - $LHA (-0,16%) (-11 %)

Flights to the region are canceled, travel offers suspended. Investors fear rising costs and falling booking figures.

_________________________

💎 Luxury stocks clearly in the red

The European luxury index loses almost 4 %.

Strongly affected:

• Richemont - $CFR (+0,15%)
• Swatch - $UHR (-0,2%)
• LVMH - $MC (-0,13%)
• Hermès - $RMS (+0,44%)
• Kering - $KER (+0,14%)
• Brunello Cucinelli - $BC (+0,27%)
• Moncler - $MONC (+0,05%)
• Ferragamo - $SFER (-0,03%)

Background:

Luxury is heavily dependent on global travel. Capital flows out of cyclical stocks.

_________________________

🛡 Defense stocks as clear winners

Geopolitical tensions drive up defense stocks:

• BAE Systems - $BA. (+0,16%)
• Lockheed Martin - $LMT (-0,25%)
• RTX - $RTX (-0,05%)
• Kratos - $KTOS (-0,23%)
• Hensoldt - $HAG (-0,95%)
• Leonardo - $LDO (-0,24%)
• Renk - $R3NK (-0,55%)
• Rheinmetall - $RHM (-0,77%)

Partial price increases of 3-6 %.

The focus is particularly on missile defense systems and possible increases in defense budgets.

_________________________

🚢 Shipping companies benefit

Transport values increase due to detour (avoidance of Hormuz, Suez Canal & Bab al-Mandab):

• Maersk - $MAERSK A (-0,31%)
• Hapag-Lloyd - $HLAG (+0,04%)
• Torm - $TRMD A (+0,2%)
• Frontline - $FRO (+0,23%)
• Hoegh Autoliners $HAUTO (+0,26%)

Reason: Shortage of transport capacity and speculation on rising freight rates.

_________________________

🥇 Gold in demand

• Gold price: +2,5 %

Profiteers in mining stocks:

• Evolution Mining - $EVN (-2,42%)
• Northern Star - $NST (-1,01%)

The sector has been showing relative strength for several days.

$4GLD (+0,35%)
$GOLD
$GOLD (-2,41%)

_________________________

📊 Market logic clearly recognizable

Winner:

🛡 Armaments

🚢 Shipping companies

🥇 Gold

₿ Bitcoin (short-term)

Losers:

🏦 Banks

✈️ Travel

💎 Luxury

_________________________

🔎 Conclusion

The market reaction follows the classic pattern of geopolitical crises:

• Risk is reduced
• Capital seeks security
• Energy prices rise
• Defense stocks benefit

The decisive factor remains whether the situation eases diplomatically - or escalates further.

_________________________

Source:

Reuters: Anleger greifen bei Bitcoin als "Fluchtvehikel" zu (Via TradingView)

In this video, I analyze current takeover rumors, merger scenarios and valuation opportunities for several large stocks: PayPal, Commerzbank and Netflix. I combine newsflow, fundamental data, chart technology and the VWAP indicator to classify possible takeover prices and trading opportunities.

💳 PayPal - split or takeover?

Rumors are currently circulating about a possible takeover or split-up of PayPal. According to media reports, Stripe is said to have signaled interest - but talks are at a very early stage. I analyze:

• favorable valuation
• Constant net margin of around 14.7%
• strong cash flows
• low debt
• Attractiveness for hostile takeovers

I use the VWAP indicator to show what price could be realistic for potential buyers.

🏦 Commerzbank - UniCredit before mandatory offer?

UniCredit currently holds around 29.35% of Commerzbank. According to BaFin, a mandatory offer would be necessary from 30%. I explain:

• why there is no threat of a takeover hammer in the short term
• why the current VWAP is close to the share price
• why the share currently offers little M&A fantasy

🎬 Netflix & Warner Bros - billion-euro deal?

Netflix wants to take over Warner Bros. Although the Netflix offer is considered preferred, Paramount has recently improved its offer to USD 31 per share. An extraordinary general meeting will be held on March 20 to vote on the offer. Analyzing:

• the massive share price reaction of Netflix (-50%)
• financing risks
• Long-term synergy potential
• Valuation after the slump

📊 Important brands:

78 USD = interesting

69 USD = extremely favorable

85 USD = clear buy trigger

Netflix is currently trading at a discount of around 30% to its fair value.

Watch this video to find out:

✔ which takeover rumors have substance

✔ how I assess M&A opportunities

✔ how VWAP works as a price indicator

✔ where I see long and short setups

✔ how to trade takeover fantasies

This video is aimed at active traders and investors who want to use M&A news strategically.

Which of the stocks would you rather trade? $PYPL (+0%) , $CBK (+0,17%) or $NFLX (+0,08%) ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBTBJEIfd6s