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170Hi Community,
I myself own shares in$1211 (-2,76%) BYD $700 (-2,86%) Tencent $1810 (-3,06%) Xiaomi $9868 (-1,62%) xpeng and $JD (-2,05%)
All with very good EKP (before the rise)
I would like to get opinions from people with more experience on the current run in the Chinese market.
How do you assess the risk in relation to the political situation?
Therefore, I would be happy to have a lively exchange of views and / or opinions on the above mentioned stocks
Thanks in advance :)
Hello,
I wanted to hear your views on the China stocks / China situation. Basically I am bullish on China but open to all arguments / points of view.
I am currently still holding $BABA (-2,32%) (Alibaba) $1211 (-2,76%) (Byd) $PDD (-1,81%) (Pindudu) $9618 (-2,15%) (JD). I have sold $700 (-2,86%) (Tencent) (+- 40%) in the last China high October / September.
At that time I sold all China stocks (alibaba byd tencent) completely (almost optimal moment through 2 sales tranches) due to the exaggerated reaction after the press conference, despite my personal bullish attitude, with 10-50% profit margins per stock. After the exaggeration flattened out, I got back in (approx. 10-20% lower than the exit point) in November / December. Tencent was replaced by jd and pdd but will continue to be monitored.
I am currently in the situation of considering jumping out again, but I see the current performance for almost 1-2 months differently than in the first phase in October.
The shares have not risen as sharply and the current news is, in my opinion, different from back then. This makes it difficult for me to see the current situation as an exaggeration like back then, when there was only the government promise. Furthermore, many of the shares are established companies with currently still low -> fair valuations. Do you think the world is slowly making up for the neglect or is it just being exaggerated again?
Many large investors have generally been getting back into China for years in medium to large style, which is why I am still bullish.
I am aware of the political risk, which everyone has been reminded of since the Alibaba crash.
I'll share my individual share portfolio to show you the current weighting there.
I have another portfolio with TR with etfs, 1 reit (approx. 10%) and 1 physical gold and miner etf (both 5%). I have just under 40% individual stocks/60% etfs reit gold cash
$700 (-2,86%)
$TCEHY (-2,39%)
$80700
The Department of Defense today classified Tencent as a "Chinese military company operating in the United States".
Tencent shares plummet after being blacklisted as a Chinese defense contractor by the Ministry of Defense.
Tencent is owned by dozens of state pension funds.
It's time for 100% divestment from China-based companies.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9q78wn9g8zo
In Part 1 I described my start as an investor from 2010 to 2016. Despite loss-making investments and bad decisions (buying AT&T instead of Amazon), I was able to achieve a portfolio value of €35,000. These experiences were to lay the first foundation stone for my future successful investment strategy (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/PElWrODsmV)
In part 2 I talk about further setbacks in 2017 and 2018 and how the purchase of MasterCard shares marked the turning point in my investment career. Despite initial losses and professional dissatisfaction, I realized that my original strategy wasn't working and discovered the "dividend growth" for me. With a new professional position and a solid salary, I was finally able to really hit the ground running in 2019 (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)
In part 3 it will now be about the years 2019 to 2021 will be discussed. In these 3 years, my portfolio has increased fivefold. From €40,000, it went up to €199,000 in the meantime. But not everything was positive here either. During this time, I also made the two worst trades of my investment career. In addition to Wirecard, there were two other equity investments that resulted in losses of over 80%.
The year 2019 & the first share savings plans:
The year 2019 started with a portfolio balance of ~€40,000 and after my MasterCard purchase in December 2018, my major portfolio reorganization was to continue directly at the beginning of 2019. So in the first four months with Tencent $700 (-2,86%)
Intel $INTC (-1,46%)
Salesforce $CRM (-1,46%)
Alphabet $GOOG (-1,47%) and Meta $META (-2,16%) (then still Facebook), five more tech stocks were added to my portfolio. In return I have BHP Billiton $BHP (-2,24%)
Macy's $M (-0,71%)
and Hugo Boss $BOSS (-3,02%) sold.
Later in the year, the shares of Mercedes $MBG (+0,15%)
and AT&T $T (-0,23%) were also removed from the portfolio.
In addition to further acquisitions such as Pepsi $PEP (+0,04%)
Nextera Energy $NEE (-0,6%)
or Xylem $XYL (-1,08%) I also recognized the benefits of share savings plans in 2019 and started to set up a pure "savings plan custody account". At that time, this was still done via comdirect or Consorsbank and each savings plan execution cost a fee of 0.75%.
Another sale in 2019 was the Gamestop-share $GME (-1,82%) . Bought in 2016 to have something to do with gaming in the portfolio, but not taking into account that stationary sales are becoming less and less relevant. In the end, the share price fell by 85% - unfortunately, this was long before the memestock hype emerged.
My portfolio rose to ~€67,000 in 2019 and achieved a return of 23%. However, this was still well below the MSCI World and the S&P 500.
The year 2020 - Corona, Wirecard bankruptcy & 100k before 30 in the portfolio
2020 - a year that few of us will probably forget. While everything was still going reasonably smoothly in January and February 2020, chaos was set to break out from mid-February/March.
The first few weeks of 2020 had given rise to hopes of a very positive development in my portfolio. From the beginning of January to mid-February, my portfolio rose by almost €10,000 to €77,000.
Panic then slowly set in from mid-February. I still remember exactly how trading on the US stock markets was repeatedly suspended for short periods and daily losses of 10% were normal. At 0 o'clock sharp, I looked at the US futures and in seconds the futures went down by -5%. A cap for the futures, the futures loss must not be higher and you knew the next morning it would end badly for the DAX.
But when there is blood in the streets, you can make very good deals! So in March 2020 I bought the Allianz
$ALV (-0,51%) for €118. This gives me a personal dividend yield of almost 12% based on the current dividend of €13.80. Unfortunately, I only bought for €1,000 in total.
Also Starbucks
$SBUX (-0,82%) I was able to buy for less than €50.
The stock market crash continued until the Fed made short work of it and ended the crash single-handedly. The crash was ended with interest rate cuts and massive money printing and once again the saying "Never bet against the FED" proved to be true.
The stock markets then went through the roof and within a very short space of time were already back to a positive level compared to the end of 2019. Every share that somehow falls under the term "stay at home" was suddenly the hot tip on the stock market. Whether the Peloton $PTON (-1,79%)
or Teladoc $TDOC (-2,16%) everything went through the roof.
I let myself get carried away and did about 10 "Stay at Home" hype stocks into a growth savings plan portfolio. Of these, at the end of 2024 with Sea $SE (-2,95%) and MercadoLibre $MELI (-0,75%) only two shares remained. It goes without saying that most of them left the portfolio at a loss.
But 2020 was also the Wirecard year $WDI (-33,51%) BaFin's ban on short selling, a year-long audit by EY, political backing and massive investments by German fund managers from DWS, UnionInvest and Deka vs. a journalist from the Financial Times.
Wirecard's claims that the journalist was in cahoots with short sellers and the backing from various institutions were unfortunately too credible for me.
When Wirecard faced the press and announced that EUR 2 billion could no longer be found, things went downhill and it became clear to everyone that the company was heading for insolvency. Before trading was suspended, I was able to sell my shares at a 50% loss and got off lightly.
Later in the year, I was able to conclude an extremely favorable leasing offer and sell my private car. The proceeds went straight into my securities account and I broke the €100,000 barrier in November 2020.
My portfolio then ended the year with a value of ~€120,000. At +5%, my performance was pretty much in line with the MSCI World.
The year 2021 - HYPE! Wall Street bets, crypto and almost 200k in the portfolio
The year 2021 was characterized above all by hypes. Cryptocurrencies, memestocks and memecoins were in the headlines everywhere. Gamestop, Dogecoin, SPACs and NFTs everyone had to have.
Traditional shares became almost boring.
One of the reasons was certainly the checks that the US government issued to its citizens. It was still Corona, many were locked down and suddenly people started gambling on the stock market.
The hype can be illustrated very well using the example of NFTs. In 2021, NFTs worth $17 billion were traded, in 2023 it was only 80 million - a decline of 97%. According to one study, ~95% of all NFTs are now completely worthless.
The madness in one example: Procter & Gamble launched a Charmin toilet paper NFT. This was sold for over $4,000. All proceeds were donated, but a symbol of the madness of 2021.
From a portfolio perspective, 2021 was great! In the end, there was a +32% return and a portfolio value of over €190,000, which at times in November 2021 was €199,000.
My top performers were NVIDIA
$NVDA (-2,84%) with over 100% price gains and Pfizer $PFE (-0,35%)
, which was driven by the vaccine hype and at €50 was twice as high as in 2024.
My worst performer was another 80% loss with TAL Education $TAL (-1,61%) . An education company from China. Unfortunately, this was the first time I was able to experience the political arbitrariness in countries like China. Overnight, it was decided that education/tutoring could only be run as a non-profit. Of course, this was almost a death sentence for the company and the share price plummeted by 80%.
Asset development & return:
After the years 2013 to 2018 were forgettable in terms of returns, the years 2019 to 2021 finally delivered:
Year
Deposit value
Yield
2019 67.000€ +19%
2020 121.000€ +5%
2021 193.000€ +34%
Vermögensentwicklung 2019-2021:
Vermögensentwicklung 2013-2021:
Outlook:
Looking back on the hype year 2021, it is almost obvious that 2022 had to be clearly negative.
After the party, however, came the hangover in the form of inflation and the war in Ukraine. Sharply rising interest rates and global economic concerns did the rest.
In the next part, I would therefore like to look at the years 2022 & 2023. I will then combine 2024 with my review of the year in the last part.
Prosus NV- The Tencent Play
Prosus NV is a Dutch technology investment company founded in 2019 through the spin-off from South African media group Naspers. The company focuses on investing in high-growth technology companies, with a particular focus on e-commerce, online classifieds, fintech and education technology.
Historical development
Prosus was born out of Naspers' strategic goal to bundle its international internet holdings into a stand-alone company. The IPO in 2019 on Euronext in Amsterdam catapulted Prosus to become the largest listed technology company in Europe.
Business model and core competencies
Prosus' business model is based on long-term investments in promising technology companies. The company's core competence lies in identifying, supporting and scaling innovative business models. In addition to capital, Prosus also provides its investments with expertise and access to a global network.
The most important investments include
(Here is a picture that Getquin does not want to accept)
Future prospects and strategic initiatives
Prosus continues to focus on high-growth markets, particularly in Asia and Latin America. The focus is on high-potential sectors such as e-commerce, fintech and edtech. A key strategic measure is the ongoing share buyback program, which aims to reduce the discount between the stock market value and the intrinsic value of the investments.
Market position and competition
As one of the world's largest technology investment companies, Prosus is in direct competition with other global technology giants such as $9984 (-1,19%) . However, the company has a clear competitive advantage due to its strong presence in emerging markets and its broad geographic focus.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
Prosus' addressable market (TAM) is huge, as the company is active in various industries and regions. The global e-commerce market is expected to reach USD 16.6 trillion by 2027. The fintech industry is forecast to reach a market volume of 699 billion US dollars by 2030.
Share performance
Since its launch, the Prosus share has recorded a volatile but overall positive performance. In the last 12 months, the TR was 45%, while the TR over three years is 17.1%. .
Despite the growth, the share continues to trade at a significant discount to its net asset value. The current market capitalization of around €90 billion is approximately 20% below the value of the holdings, offering a potentially attractive opportunity for value investors.
For the development (company figures), a better view and more, check out the free blog : https://topicswithhead.beehiiv.com/p/prosus-nv-der-tencent-play
Week in review 12.10.
All-time highs for S&P 500, Dow Jones, Air Products & Chemicals, American Express, Arista Networks, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Caterpillar, CAVA, Fiserv, GE Vernova, Goldman Sachs, Mastercard, Morgan Stanley, Motorola Solutions, Piper Sandler, Royal Caribbean, Uber, Unum
52-week highs for Carnival, Commerzbank, GE Aerospace, Hilton Worldwide, MicroStrategy, Norwegian Cruise, Palantir, Ralph Lauren, Robinhood Markets, Sea Ltd. , Shake Shack, Tangier, Teledyne
Tesla Cybercab / Robotaxi planned from 2026 for under 30,000$. In addition, an autonomous bus with 20 seats was presented, share falls -8.1%, market is disappointed, -19% 1-year performance
Nvidia partner Hon Hai increases capacity to meet "crazy" AI demand, Nvidia shares +8.3% this week, +176% 1-year performance
AMD unveils MI325X AI accelerator to compete with Nvidia's H200, customers include Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Dell, Oracle, Meta, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Supermicro, Lenovo and Databricks, AMD launches EPYC 5th Gen Datacenter CPU to compete with Intel's Xeon, AMD currently has 34% market share in Datacenter CPUs, MI350 coming in 2025 to compete with Nvidia's Blackwell, AMD stock drops -4%, apparently sell the news event, +45% 1-year performance
92% of desktop processor sales at major German online retailer Mindfactory were from AMD last week, Intel only at 8% share and -36% 1-year performance
TSMC with good quarterly figures, share price rises slightly, +97% 1-year performance
JPMorgan with good quarterly figures, share +5.1%, +48% 1-year performance
Wells Fargo with good quarterly figures, share +6.5%, +49% 1-year performance
PepsiCo and Samsung with poor quarterly figures, shares fall slightly
Amazon Pharmacy announces same-day delivery of prescription drugs in 20 more US states and expands its service to almost half of the states in 2025, +43% % 1-year performance
Jefferies says Apple's hopes for an AI phone are overdone and high expectations are premature, Hold rating, +26% 1-year performance
The situation is similar at Microsoft after Oppenheimer downgraded its rating from "Outperform" to "Perform", it was the second such downgrade by analysts in recent weeks, AI sales are overestimated and shares have underperformed since July due to "AI fatigue", plus losses at OpenAI, +26% 1-year performance
Two Google scientists from the subsidiary DeepMind receive the Nobel Prize in Chemistry, they developed the AI model "AlphaFold2", which can be used to predict the structures of all 200 million known proteins, the AI is used in 190 countries, for example in the clarification of antibiotic resistance or the use of enzymes to break down plastics, Alphabet shareholders like this, +12% 1-year performance
Inperial Brands increases dividend, now pays out quarterly and buys back shares, share price rises 5%, +36% 1-year performance
FTX - customers will soon get their balances paid out after the crypto exchange went bankrupt in 2022 and the management was imprisoned
Shortseller Hindenburg Research with allegations of fraud and safety concerns for children at gaming service Roblox, share price falls -6%, even -70% since November 2021
After two very positive weeks, China stocks fall like a flash in the pan as the market expected more stimulus from the Chinese dictator. Dictator, Hang Seng with worst day since the 2008 financial crisis, this week
China strengthens real estate sector and signals more spending ahead, Finance Minister announces measures to support real estate sector today and government would now have more room to borrow and increase deficit, China also announces issuance of special government bonds today to bolster capitalization of its largest state-owned banks, Printer is coming
Fitch downgrades France's credit rating to negative due to higher deficits, government debt expected to rise to 118.5% of GDP by 2028
FTSE Russell: Greek equities on track for upgrade to developed markets, FTSE Russell to provide update as part of March 2025 review, Greek equity index up 53% since start of 2023
Porsche sells 7% fewer cars due to China slump by -29%, -5% North America but +7% Germany & Europe, -21% % 1-year performance
Deutsche Telekom increases dividend and launches share buyback program for € 2 bn, highest share price in 23 years, +33% 1-year performance
Commerzbank reaches highest share price since the euro crisis in 2011, +61% 1-year performance
Bayer with new lawsuit in the USA over PCBs, share price -7%, -41% 1-year performance
German industrial order intake fell unexpectedly sharply by 5.8% in August compared to the previous month
E.on CEO expects energy prices to rise in the long term thanks to higher taxes & levies and the world's stupidest energy policy
The Ampel expects the economy to shrink for the second year in a row, revising its GDP forecast for 2024 from +0.3% to -0.2%, only the second consecutive year of shrinking GDP since the fall of communism in 1990
After the pension insurance, the German long-term care insurance is also bankrupt, as recipients of citizens' benefits are not paying in and society is ageing, Lauterbach therefore wants to increase the monthly contribution for long-term care for all workers, so soon less net from gross again
" If you want to read a review like this every week, leave a like and subscribe.
$NVDA (-2,84%)
$AMD (-1,98%)
$TSLA (-3,51%)
$CBR
$INTC (-1,46%)
$2330
$JPM (-1,44%)
$WFC (-1,66%)
$PEP (+0,04%)
$AMZN (-1,99%)
$GOOGL (-1,46%)
$GOOGL (-1,46%)
$AAPL (-1,53%)
$MSFT (-1,56%)
$IMB (-1,31%)
$CNUA (-0,89%)
$941
$9988 (-1,91%)
$700 (-2,86%)
$1211 (-2,76%)
$P911 (+2,78%)
$PAH3 (+0,76%)
$DTE (+0,16%)
$BAYN (+2,14%)
$EOAN (+0,37%)
$PLTR (-2,87%)
$RBLX
$BLK
Podcast episode 57 "Buy High. Sell Low."
Subscribe to the podcast to keep more net from gross!
00:00:00 Vistra Energy, Constellation Energy, Uranium Energy, Uranium ETFs $VST (-3,42%)
$STZ (-1,01%)
$UEC (-0,7%)
00:37:20 Alibaba, China stocks $9618 (-2,15%)
$700 (-2,86%)
$80700
$1211 (-2,76%)
01:12:00 Exxon, Shell, Diamondback Energy, oil ETFs $SHEL (+0,11%)
$GB00B03MM408
$RDS.A
01:32:00 LVMH, Hermès $MC (-1,25%)
$9988 (-1,91%)
$BABA (-2,32%)
01:42:00 Kering $KER (-0,8%)
01:45:00 Dior, Prada, luxury ETF $CDI (-2,33%)
$1913 (-3,6%)
$AMUN (-1,84%)
01:48:00 Rising social security contributions in 2025 #ampel#money
Spotify
$SPOT (-2,77%)
https://open.spotify.com/episode/44odhfXKc9Do4d6OE6nY3M?si=aXivvFZdSWmn5rOiEk9ElQ
YouTube
$GOOGL (-1,46%)
$GOOGL (-1,46%)
Apple Podcast $AAPL (-1,53%)
#podcast
$700 (-2,86%) monthly savings plan on Tencent with €50, 📈 because of the 1% saveback promotion from @traderepublic
Risikant, due to the political conflict with #russland and #taiwan but still broadly diversified for a single stock 😄
NVIDIA ($NVDA (-2,84%)) is reportedly developing a new AI chip, tentatively called "B20", specifically for the Chinese marketto comply with US export controls. This chip is part of the Blackwell series and is said to be compatible with current regulations. NVIDIA will work with Inspura major distributor in China, to launch and distribute the chip. The B20 chip is expected to compete against domestic products from companies such as Huawei and that of Tencent ($700 (-2,86%)) backed Enflame compete.
I migliori creatori della settimana
