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24From 18-year-old wannabe investment banker to successful private asset manager: my (bumpy) path to âŹ300,000 in a custody account
Part 1 of X (let's see how many there will be): The new Gordon Gekko? Between Chinese small-cap recommendations from stock market letters and "AT&T is better than Amazon" (2010 - 2016)
(Part 2: https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)
Previous story:
Inspired by @DonkeyInvestor I would now like to share my story and continue it if there is interest. Thanks for the cool idea!
My investment journey began about 2-3 years before my first securities purchase in 2013. While the financial crisis (2007-2009) only interested me marginally as a ~15-year-old, the emerging euro crisis from 2010 onwards aroused a much greater interest in the economy, sovereign debt and co. As part of some school work, I dealt with the debt crisis in Greece, among other things.
Through films like Wall Street or Margin Call - The Great Crash slowly sparked my interest in the stock market. With my first smartphone in 2012, I was able to secretly check share prices during lessons - which often led to the teacher confiscating it đ I primarily followed the prices of "cool" shares such as Daimler, Hugo Boss and Sony.
I grew a desire to become an investment banker myself and emigrate to Wall Street in New York (spoiler: neither happened đ).
The first purchases:
My first purchases were made under contradictory circumstances. I was firmly convinced that a major crash was imminent (government debt, interest rate policy, ...) and was very convinced by well-known crash prophets such as Dirk MĂŒller.
Nevertheless, I wanted to play along and bought my first shares.
In 2013, I started my dual business studies at a global bank. When I started my studies, I finally made my first securities purchases. On the one hand, my capital-forming benefits went into the DWS Top Dividende, and on the other, I set up an ETF savings plan on the DAX. In 2014, I added further shares such as AT&T $T (-0,14%) Verizon $VZ (-0,62%) Shell $SHEL (-0,74%) and Sony $6758 (+1,35%) were added. While Sony was a great investment, I unfortunately sold the stock far too early. My purchase price was around âŹ12 and I sold at around âŹ18. If I hadn't sold Sony, it would have been a tenbagger at times.
My main investment criteria at the time were
- Low P/E ratio
- High dividend yield
- And/or "cool" company
So in 2014 I had to choose between Amazon $AMZN (+0,26%) ("cool, but no dividend & much too high P/E ratio") and AT&T ("high dividend, low P/E ratio"). And, of course, the decision sucked with today's knowledge.
Another company was Macy's $M (+1,82%) . When I was in New York and visited the largest shopping center in the world, I was sure I had to have this stock.
The only two stocks I still have in my portfolio from my early years are Procter & Gamble $PG (-1,24%) (bought in 2015) and Unilever $ULVR (-1,44%) (bought in 2016).
In 2016, I had a total of 14 individual shares in my portfolio, 12 of which were sold in the following years and will probably never end up in my portfolio again.
The first lesson:
After I realized professionally that the path to investment banking and New York was probably not the right one after all (40 hours of work is really exhausting, I don't need 80 or more in investment banking), I slowly realized that I wasn't the next Gordon Gekko or Warren Buffett either.
It was too boring for me to just invest in shares - after all, I wanted to get rich quick and drive a Porsche! So from 2014, I also started investing in other things (no, unfortunately not crypto).
I tried my hand at various certificates, reverse convertibles and the like, all with little success. The biggest learning I had was with an absolutely hot tip from the internet. It was a classic pump and dump game from a stock market letter. Someone had stocked up on shares in a Chinese small cap (Tianbao Holdings) and then called on everyone to buy: "Share with the chance of a 10,000% return - forget Apple and co." It was advertised like this or something similar at the time.
I took my entire monthly salary (around âŹ800) and thought to myself: get in! It didn't matter what the company was doing or why the opportunity should be so great! At first things went up and I was quickly up 20%. Then it went downhill - the initial investor had probably made his return and withdrawn the money. The stock exchanges quickly realized this and stopped trading. I tried to sell the shares on various stock exchanges and was able to get rid of them in Berlin, Bremen or somewhere else - with a loss of 50%. Two weeks of work for nothing. Although it was "only" a loss of âŹ400, it really annoyed me. Not just the loss, but that I fell for something like that.
In hindsight, the âŹ400 was extremely well invested and helped me a lot in my future investment career.
Asset development & return:
How did the first 3-4 years on the stock market go and how did my assets develop?
Year Deposit value Return
2013 2.000⏠-12%
2014 8.600⏠-1%
2015 17.000⏠+4%
2016 35.000⏠+14%
All in all, these were lost years for me in terms of returns. You can also see this from the green line, which was mostly in negative territory.
The stock markets did very well, and yet I mostly only saw losses or very low returns.
Conclusion & outlook:
So in 2016 it was clear to me: no investment banking, no New York, I'm not the new Warren Buffett and I'm not going to get rich overnight.
In the following 3 years from 2016 to 2019, I built on my initial experiences and slowly developed into a better investor. Nevertheless, more big mistakes followed (Bitcoin, Wirecard, ...).
Innovations in the trial custody account/children's custody account/savings plan custody account or whatever $AMUN (+0,32%) flies out. Not necessarily because of the figures. I actually thought they were quite good, but what they did with my beloved World ETF was enough for me.
Still considering $MSCI (+0,09%) or $BLK but haven't had time to take a closer look yet.
Nevertheless, there will be 4 new additions next month.
Week in review 28.09.
New all-time highs for DAX, Dow Jones, S&P 500, Gold, GE Vernova, Meta, Netflix, SAP, Vistra Corp, Walmart đđ„ $LYY7 (-0,47%)
$CSPX (+0,32%)
$ABX (+0,54%)
$GEV (+2,49%)
$META (-2,23%)
$NFLX (+0,09%)
$SAP (-0,03%)
$VST (+1,56%)
$WMT (-2,1%)
New 52-week highs for 3M, Air Products, Alibaba, Arista Networks, Barrick Gold, Bank of Nova Scotia, BlackRock, Caterpillar, Constellation Energy, DuPont, HSBC, Infosys, Live Nation, McDonald's, Palantir, PayPal, Public Storage, Royal Bank of Canada, Royal Caribbean, Sea Ltd, Spotify, Tangier đ”đ $PLTR (+6,35%)
$9988 (-2,55%)
$BABA (-2,95%)
$BLK
$CAT (+0,86%)
$BNS (-0,23%)
$STZ (-0,34%)
$DD (-0,03%)
$HSBA (-0,91%)
$HSBC (-1,07%)
$INFY
$LYV (-0,61%)
$MCD (-0,31%)$PUB
$PUB
$RCL (+2,69%)
$SEA (+0%)
$SKT (-0,63%)
Bitcoin with new 1-month high, +22% in three weeks since the low on 07.09. from 52k$ to 66k$, +150% in 12 monthsđđ $BTC (-2,11%)
PayPal's own stablecoin PYUSD (crypto) is growing strongly and is now one of the top 100 cryptos by market capitalization at 95th place đ° $PYPL (-0,38%)
Palantir with inclusion in the S&P 500 on Monday #PLTRgang đ€đ€đâ $PLTR (+6,35%)
Uber is working with Google's Waymo (Alphabet) and wants to offer robotaxis for a surcharge đđ€ $UBER (-0,14%)
$GOOGL (+0,94%)
$GOOG (+1,03%)
After the ECB and FED, China has also turned on the money printer *brrr brrr*, plus a big economic stimulus program, China stocks therefore have their best week in 10 years, car and luxury stocks with Chinese business are therefore rising đšđšđł $MC (-0,25%)
$P911 (-0,41%)
$BMW (+0,87%)
$MBG (-0,07%)
AMD CEO and Nvidia CEO confirm continued high demand for AI chips đ§ đ€, Nvidia CEO does not want to sell any more of his own shares for the time being. $AMD (-0,35%)
$NVDA (+2,01%)
Upcoming Playstation 6 with AMD chip again, but AMD will leave the high-end graphics card market for PC gamers and try to scale more strongly in the mid and lower segments. Nvidia would then have a monopoly đź $SONY (+1,01%)
$6758 (+1,35%)
Super Micro suspected of accounting fraud. US justice is apparently already investigating according to an insider, -62% share price in three months đđź $SMCI
AI needs a lot of electricity and nuclear power plants are being reactivated in the USA. In Germany, it's the other way around due to the world's stupidest energy policy. US electricity provider shares, uranium mines - shares and ETFs are rising. âïžâĄïž (see podcast episode 57 "Buy High. Sell Low." pinned to my profile at the top) $URNM
$URA (-1,04%)
$UEC (-6,05%)
Micron with good quarterly figures and +13% share price, semiconductor stocks rally đ»đ $MU (+2,58%)
Costco - quarterly figures mixed, EPS exceeds estimates but sales worse than expected, share price falls slightly đ $COST (-1,09%)
McDonald's increases quarterly dividend by 6% to 1.77$. Since the first dividend payment in 1976, the payout has been increased 48 years in a row. đđ $MCD (-0,31%)
Investigation initiated against Visa đł and SAP đ» in the USA for illegal price fixing $V (-0,14%)
$SAP (-0,03%)
Oil price falls again, Shell & Co. on the way to 1-year low đąâœïž $SHEL (-0,74%)
$GB00B03MM408
$RDS.A
Meta releases VR glasses Quest 3s for âŹ330 from 15.10.24 đ±đ
Intel launches AI accelerator "Gaudi 3" as an alternative to Nvidia's H100. IBM, Google & Dell as first customers. đ§ $INTC (+1,8%)
US debt level climbs above 35 trillion dollars for the first time đšđ”
Ubisoft share price collapses due to postponement of "Assassin's Creed: Shadows", -70% 1-year performance đźđ $UBI (-0,32%)
DHL raises outlook / growth forecast until 2030 and increases letter postage by 10.5% in Germany from 2025 đŠâïžđŻ $DHL (+0,13%)
BASF struggles with high energy prices and weak demand, threat of plant closure and dividend cut đ©đȘđ $BAS (-0,12%)
Adidas (+28%) significantly better than Nike (-18%) since the beginning of the year âœïžđđ $ADS (-0,15%)
$NKE (-6,85%)
Takeover poker at Commerzbank by Ital. Unicredit continues đŠđźđčđ©đȘ $CBK (-1,64%)
$UCG (+0,05%)
Jefferies issued a buy recommendation for BioNTech and sees the antibody BNT327 against cancer as a potential massive sales driver. đšââïžâïžđ $DE000A0V9BC4
Mutares -14% because shortseller Gotham City raises serious allegations against the SDAX member: Ponzi scheme, false accounting and circular business model đđź $MUX (-2,14%)
>> If you want to read a review like this every week, leave a like & subscribe. What important news have I forgotten? đâ€ïž
+ 6
$6758 (+1,35%) Have you suddenly seen a 400% rise in the share price at Trade Republic?
đș CD Projekt: Of sorcerers and cyberpunks - the masters of digital worlds đïž Part 1:https://getqu.in/dYjIcI/
Current $CDR (-0,91%) Projekt has the second-best shareholder yield among providers, even if this is quite small.
CD Projekt's payout ratio is relatively low and therefore still has plenty of room to increase.
The dividend is around USD 0.30 per share
CD Projekt's return on invested capital (ROIC) is twice as high as that of most of its competitors and, at more than 10 %, also exceeds the important threshold.
CD Projekt's return on equity (ROE) is also above 10 % and is the best in the industry.
The situation is similar for return on capital employed (ROCE), which is also above 10 % and is the best indicator in the industry.
Conclusion
With CD Projekt, you are not only supporting some of the best games in the world, but also a first-class European games producer. The capital structure and valuation speak for themselves, and the share is one of the best valued in comparison. Although there have been mistakes in the past, the company has learned from these experiences and is now firmly back in contact with the community. Irrespective of this, it is still well managed.
Although CD Projekt has few but strong IPs, game development looks promising. If you want to invest in the industry, there are really only four options, three of which are not pure game producers ($MSFT (-1,05%) , $7974 (-2,81%) and $6758 (+1,35%) ). If you are looking for a pure gaming provider, CD Projekt is clearly the first choice and shows the greatest potential. As a fan of games, I am all the more pleased that I can invest in a company without having to rely solely on my emotions, and I am therefore happy to buy again when the price reaches 30- 36 euros.
+ 2
Sony $6758 (+1,35%) raises annual targets after profit jump
The Japanese electronics and entertainment group Sony is becoming more optimistic after better business in the first quarter.
The company is now targeting sales of 12.61 trillion Japanese yen (79.5 billion euros) and an operating profit of 1.31 trillion yen for the current financial year to the end of March 2025, the company announced in Tokyo on Wednesday. While analysts had expected less in terms of revenue, the company met expectations with its new profit target. Previously, the electronics and entertainment group had targeted sales of 12.3 trillion yen and an operating profit of 1.28 trillion yen.
In the first quarter, business with the PS5 games console in particular was significantly better, but the music business also grew strongly. Revenues climbed by two percent to just over three trillion yen between April and the end of June. Adjusted for the financial division, which
Sony to the stock market, sales increased by 12 percent to just under 2.6 trillion yen. Group-wide operating profit rose by ten percent to 279 billion yen.
The bottom line was a profit attributable to shareholders of just under 232 billion yen - six percent more than a year earlier. This was significantly more than analysts had expected. For the year as a whole, Sony is now also aiming for a surplus of 980 billion yen, more than previously planned.
Not to forget. Share buyback program underway and stock split coming in September
TOKYO (dpa-AFX)
Do you think that the companies' quarterly figures will still make a big difference?
$BNTX (+0,93%) , $IFX (-1,35%) , $8001 (-0,17%) , $PLTR (+6,35%) , $O (+1,22%) , $WMB (+0,85%)
$ABNB (+3,68%) , $AMGN (+0,51%) , $BAYN (+0,17%) , $CAT (+0,86%) , $UBER (-0,14%) , $ZAL (-0,7%)
$CBK (-1,64%) , $DIS (-0,24%) , $OXY (+5,16%) , $MNST (-0,16%) , $NOVO B (-17,74%) , $PUMA , $SHOP (+0,9%) , $ENR (+2,08%) , $6758 (+1,35%) , $WBD (+1,28%)
$ALV (-0,66%) , $DTE (-0,92%) , $LLY (+1,78%) , $MUV2 (-1,1%) , $RHM (-0,78%) , $SIE (-0,29%)
Japanese equities: a promising outlook for 2024
Imagine Japan is a giant sushi bar and the stocks are the nigiri appetizers. For a long time, no one really looked, but now everyone realizes: "Hey, this tastes really good!" This is exactly what is happening with Japanese shares at the moment. Investors are starting to pull out their chopsticks, and for good reason. I'll give you a brief overview of the pros and cons & draw a short conclusion.
-
Reasons for optimism:
Monetary policy and reforms:
- The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is gradually moving towards a normalization of monetary policy. In March, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its key interest rate for the first time in 17 years. The interest rate is now in a range between zero and 0.1%, which could further improve the investment climate (Nikko AM, 2024; Asia Fund Managers, 2024).
Strong corporate earnings and share buybacks:
- Japanese companies are showing strong earnings and increasing their dividends and share buybacks. This is partly driven by the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) reforms, which are pushing companies to increase their return on capital and make their business strategies more transparent (Nasdaq, 2023; Nikko AM, 2024).
Growth in the technology sector:
- Demand for semiconductors and other technology products, particularly related to artificial intelligence, is contributing to a positive outlook for Japanese technology companies (Nikko AM, 2024).
Foreign investment:
- International investor interest in Japanese equities is increasing. This is supported by attractive valuations and improved corporate practices. Experts predict that both local and foreign investors will increase their positions in Japanese equities (Asia Fund Managers, 2024; Goldman Sachs, 2024).
Regulatory changes and stock market initiatives:
- The TSE (Tokyo Stock Exchange) is continuously introducing reforms to increase capital market efficiency. These reforms include the unknotting of cross-selling and the promotion of management buyouts (MBOs), which could further improve corporate governance (Trustnet, 2024).
-
Challenges and risks
- Despite the positive outlook, there are also challenges. The Japanese economy still shows weaknesses, such as shrinking consumer spending and slow wage growth. These factors could slow down the economic recovery and market growth (Interactive Investor, 2023).
-
Conclusion
- The Japanese stock market offers many opportunities for investors in 2024, particularly due to the continued reforms and increasing interest from international investors. However, it remains important to keep a close eye on economic conditions and monetary policy developments.
Right after the sources used, there is a sexy overview of some possible investments!
Sources
- Byrne, M. (2023). EWJ: Japanese Stocks Look Well-Positioned for Gains in 2024, Nasdaq.
- Nikko Asset Management (2024). Japan equity outlook 2024. Nikko AM Insights.
- Trustnet (2024). 5 key themes for Japanese income investors in 2024.
- Goldman Sachs Research (2024). Japan stock market outlook 2024.
- Hobson, R. (2023). Japan stock market outlook 2024: a good time to buy? Interactive Investor.
- CTMfile (2023). US and Japanese stocks to rally in 2024.
- Asia Fund Managers (2024). Japan Outlook 2024.
- Morningstar (2024). Japan Stocks Outlook.
- BlackRock (2024). Japan Equity Themes.
- Yahoo Finance (2024). Best Japanese Stocks to Buy in 2024.
--------------------
Toyota Motor Corporation (Ticker: $7203 (+2,16%)
)
- Innovation and technologyToyota is a global leader in the automotive industry and is investing heavily in electric mobility and hydrogen technology.
- Strong financial position: The company has a solid balance sheet and plans significant share buybacks, which should be positive for shareholders.
- Market presence: With a global market presence and continued expansion into new markets, Toyota remains a major player in the global automotive sector.
Sony Group Corporation (Ticker: $6758 (+1,35%)
)
- Diversification: Sony operates in various industries, including consumer electronics, film, music and financial services, which diversifies risk.
- Gaming sector: The success of the PlayStation 5 and expansion into cloud gaming strengthens Sony's position in the lucrative gaming market.
- Technological innovations: Sony continuously invests in research and development to stay at the forefront of technology.
SoftBank Group Corp (Ticker: $9984 (-3,53%)
)
- Technology investmentsSoftBank is known for its strategic investments in technology companies worldwide, including the Vision Funds.
- Telecommunications: As a major player in the telecommunications sector, SoftBank is benefiting from the increasing demand for 5G technologies.
- Risk ManagementDespite some high-risk investments, SoftBank has shown an impressive ability to adapt and continue to grow.
Fast Retailing Co, Ltd (Ticker: $9983 (+0,23%)
)
- Fashion industry: As the parent company of Uniqlo, Fast Retailing is a major player in the global fashion industry.
- Expansion: The company is aggressively expanding into new markets, particularly in Asia and North America.
- E-commerce: The strong online presence and investments in digital platforms strengthen the growth potential.
--> I do not hold any of the stocks mentioned.
Are you invested in Japan? Why yes, why no? What insider tips do you have?
So, this post has been a while in the making. I hope you like it đ If any information is out of date, please let me know! The stock market world is big and turns fast. đ
GG
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