Hellofresh

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/oV3omttRVN0?si=4olXTaUPp-fMjSYS

Monday:

The subsidy bankruptcy of our Economics Minister continues. At $INTC (+1,8%) Intel and $WOLF (+0,15%) Wolfspeed, the plants were not even built and therefore no subsidies have been paid. Things could now get even worse at Northvolt, where the subsidies have already been paid out. However, Northvolt has now filed for bankruptcy. In the worst case scenario, the state has given away 620 million euros of taxpayers' money.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/batteriefabrik-northvolt-insolvenz-koennte-steuerzahler-620-millionen-euro-kosten/100092346.html

On Monday, the mood in US industry brightened surprisingly strongly. Nevertheless, the purchasing managers' index signals a slowdown.

https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten-amp/US-Anleihen-Kursverluste-nach-robusten-Wirtschaftsdaten/36763380

Tuesday:

The DAX breaks through the 20,000 point mark for the first time in its history, reaching a new record high.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/dax-aktuell-20000-punkte-ein-rekord-in-unsicheren-zeiten/100079470.html

South Korea's president declares martial law. This is in response to the threat posed by North Korea. The rest of the world sees this as a coup d'état and protests break out.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DDHpNlBsl0c/?igsh=MW5ycDh2NHNkbno1dg==

Thursday:

$HFG (+0,69%) Hellofresh can gain significantly after several upgrades by analysts. Jeffries and JPMorgan have raised the price target by 100% in some cases.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/hellofresh-rally-geht-weiter-kursziel-verdoppelt-20371228.html

Friday:

The largest free trade zone in the world could be created, the so-called Mercosur agreement between the EU and South America. France still wants to scupper the deal, but Javier Milei wants the free trade zone. The Mercosur agreement was adopted on Friday evening.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/handelsabkommen-mega-handelsdeal-zwischen-eu-und-mercosur-auf-zielgeraden/100090629.html

Consumer sentiment in the US has continued to improve. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose. This means that consumer sentiment has improved for the fifth month in a row.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/12/06/michigan-consumer-sentiment-edges-higher

Saturday:

Billionaires are relocating more often since Covid. At least according to a new study by $UBSG (+0%) UBS. The main influencing factors are the quality of life in the respective countries, as well as the legal framework for the wealthy. The main target countries are therefore also countries with particularly low taxes: The USA 🇺🇸, Switzerland 🇨🇭, the UAE 🇦🇪 and Singapore 🇸🇬.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DDSYluRumiW/?igsh=YjJkb3gybWhxc3I4

Key dates for the coming week:

Tuesday: 08:00 Inflation data (DE)

Wednesday: 15:45 Interest rate decision BoC (Canada)

Thursday: 14:30 Interest rate decision (ECB)

What other important dates can you think of?

#inflation
#kanada
#boc
#ezb
#zinsen

Analyst updates, 05.12.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

• HSBC upgrades SIEMENS to Hold. Target price EUR 185. $SIE (-0,29%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 450 to EUR 535. Hold. $MUV2 (-1,1%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for HANNOVER RÜCK from EUR 255 to EUR 294. Buy. $HNR1 (-0,97%)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for TALANX from EUR 70 to EUR 76. Hold. $TLX (-0,96%)
• JEFFERIES raises the price target for ORACLE from 190 USD to 220 USD. Buy. $ORCL (-0,32%)
• HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB raises the target price for MTU from EUR 264 to EUR 280. Sell. $MTX (-0,47%)
• BARCLAYS upgrades AUTO1 from Equal-Weight to Overweight and raises target price from EUR 9 to EUR 19. $AG1 (+3,11%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for HELLOFRESH from EUR 14 to EUR 16. Overweight. $HFG (+0,69%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 42 to EUR 55. Overweight. $DHER (+3,05%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for CTS EVENTIM from EUR 104 to EUR 112. Overweight. $EVD (-0,58%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for SCOUT24 from EUR 92 to EUR 105. Overweight. $G24 (+0,54%)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for JUST EAT TAKEAWAY from GBP 16.02 to GBP 18.32. Overweight. $TKWY (+0,68%)
• JPMORGAN upgrades DELIVEROO from Neutral to Overweight and raises target price from GBP 1.70 to GBP 1.92. $ROO (+2,07%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from EUR 150 to EUR 151. Overweight. $HEI (-0,69%)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 49 to EUR 59. Neutral. $FRA (+5,53%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

• METZLER lowers the price target for HYPOPORT from EUR 220 to EUR 185. Sell. $HYQ (-0,35%)
• ODDO BHF lowers the target price for SCHOTT PHARMA from EUR 38 to EUR 37. Outperform. $1SXP (+0,91%)
• BARCLAYS lowers the target price for RIO TINTO from GBP 61 to GBP 60. Overweight. $RIO (-0,87%)
• JPMORGAN downgrades STRÖER from Overweight to Neutral and lowers target price from EUR 79 to EUR 57. $SAX (-1,31%)

05.12.2024

Bitcoin breaks through $100,000 + JPMorgan upgrades SAP to 'Overweight' + Jefferies raises Hellofresh to 'Buy' with target up to EUR 16.50 + Auto1 and Evotec return to MDax

Bitcoin $BTC (-0,31%)jumped above $100,000 during the night

• The $100,000 mark has been a mark that has been eagerly awaited in the crypto scene for years.
• Tonight, Bitcoin briefly jumped to $104,000.
• Now, of course, everyone is waiting to see what happens next. Will the journey continue or will the correction come now? What do you think?

JPMorgan sees SAP $SAP (-0,03%)as the favorite for 2025

• The US bank JPMorgan has left its rating for SAP at "Overweight" with a target price of 260 euros.
• Analyst Toby Ogg maintains his preference for SAP and Sage in his 2025 outlook for the software and IT industry, which was published on Wednesday.
• Both shares are also on the "Analyst Focus List".
• SAP's sales growth is likely to accelerate until 2028.

Jefferies raises Hellofresh $HFG (+0,69%)to 'Buy' - target raised to 16.50 euros

• The analyst firm Jefferies has more than doubled its price target for Hellofresh shares from 7.50 to 16.50 euros and upgraded the shares from "Hold" to "Buy".
• The cooking box mail order company is ending two difficult years with a new focus on operating profit and cash flow, wrote analyst Giles Thorne in his buy recommendation published on Thursday.
• These plans are underpinned by stabilized box sales and growth in the newer ready-to-eat segment.
• In addition, there are still opportunities for optimization.

Auto1 $AG1 (+3,11%)and Evotec $EVT (+1,24%)return to MDax - No changes in the Dax

• Hamburg-based Evotec was only forced to leave the MDax in September, but since then the shares have risen again in view of a possible sale of the company.
• Auto1 was already a member of the MDax until spring 2022.
• As expected, there are no changes in the leading Dax index of the 40 heaviest stocks.
• Three companies are moving up to the SDax: The software company Nexus is benefiting from a takeover bid worth around 1.1 billion euros from financial investor TA Associates, which caused its shares to rise sharply.
• The scientific publisher Springer Nature made the leap just over two months after its IPO.
• The changes will take effect on December 23, one day before Christmas Eve.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/maerkte-live-auto1-und-evotec-kehren-in-mdax-zurueck-keine-aenderungen-im-dax-/30026990.html

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks

Qualcomm USD 0.85

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

22:05 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Annual results

• Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Aurubis detailed annual results and annual report

10:00 Merck KGaA: Media event "Artificial Intelligence at Merck"

11:00 KWS Saat AGM

14:00 Aurubis Analyst Conference | Safran Capital Markets Day

No time specified: Fuchs SE Capital Markets Day

• Economic data

08:00 DE: New orders October seasonally adjusted FORECAST: -2.0% yoy previous: +4.2% yoy

11:00 EU: Retail Sales October Eurozone FORECAST: -0.3% yoy previous: +0.5% yoy

14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 215,000 Previous: 213,000

14:30 US: Trade Balance October FORECAST: -74.80 bn USD previously: -84.36 bn USD

Analyst updates, 04.11.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- BERENBERG raises the target price for SHELL from GBP 31 to GBP 31.50. Buy. | $SHEL (-0,74%)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for MTU from EUR 270 to EUR 350. Buy. | $MTX (-0,47%)

- BRYAN GARNIER raises the price target for HELLOFRESH from EUR 8.50 to EUR 10. Neutral. | $HFG (+0,69%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SCOUT24 from EUR 84 to EUR 92. Buy. | $G24 (+0,54%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SANTANDER from EUR 5.75 to EUR 5.80. Buy. | $SAN (-1,05%)

- RBC raises the target price for NEXT PLC from GBP 105 to GBP 108. Sector Perform. | $NXT

- UBS raises the price target for CHEVRON from USD 192 to USD 194. Buy. | $CVX (+0,4%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- UBS lowers the price target for BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY from USD 806.724 to USD 796.021. Buy. | $BRK.B (+0,07%)

- CITIGROUP lowers the price target for STMICRO from EUR 36 to EUR 30. Buy. | $STMPA (-0,02%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for ASM INTERNATIONAL from EUR 806 to EUR 716. Overweight. | $ASM (+2,02%)

- RBC downgrades CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from Outperform to Sector-Perform and lowers target price from EUR 85 to EUR 70. | $AFX (+0,2%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for KION from EUR 65 to EUR 58. Buy. | $KGX (+0,89%)

- ODDO BHF downgrades JENOPTIK from Neutral to Outperform and lowers target price from EUR 32 to EUR 30. | $JEN (+0,81%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for AIXTRON from EUR 22 to EUR 21. Outperform. | $AIXA (+0,02%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for FIELMANN from EUR 45.70 to EUR 44.60. Neutral. | $FIE (-0,67%)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for KNORR-BREMSE from 65.50 EUR to 63.60 EUR. Sell. | $KBX (+0,91%)

- GOLDMAN downgrades STANDARD CHARTERED to Neutral. Target price GBP 9.37. | $STAN (-1,81%)

- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for GENERALI from EUR 31.50 to EUR 30.50. Buy. | $G (-0,26%)

- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for PHILIPS from EUR 35 to EUR 32. Buy. | $PHIA (-0,25%)

Earnings summary this morning 👇🏼

$BP. (-0,03%)
| BP Q3 2024 Earnings

EPS Adj 13.89C (12.67C)

Adj Net $2.27B (est $2.05B)

Oper Cash Flow $6.16B (est $6.29B)

Net Debt $24.21B (est $23.28)

Plans 1.75B Share Buyback For Third Quarter

Sees 4Q Reported Upstream Production To Be Lower Vs Q3

$OMV (-0,69%) | OMV AG Q3 24 Earnings:

- Clean CCS Oper Profit EU1.10B (est EU1.05B)

- Clean CCS Net Income EU346M (est EU447.8M)

- Still Sees FY Organic CAPEX About EU3.8B (est EU3.68B)

- Sees FY Avg Production 330, 000 To 350, 000 BOE/D

$NOVN (-0,1%) | Novartis Q3 24 Earnings:

- Core EPS $2.06 (est $1.94)

- Net Sales $12.82B (est 12.68B)

- Net Sales Expected To Grow By 'Double Digit'

- Raises FY Outlook

- Now Sees FY Core Oper Income Growth In High Teens

$SAN (-1,05%) | Santander Q3 24 Earnings:

- Net Income EU3.35B (est EU3.17B)

- Net Interest Income EU11.23B (est EU11.57B)

- Net Loan - Loss Provision EU2.98B (est EU3.18B)

- Confident It'll Deliver On All Targets

$HSBA (-0,91%) | HSBC Q3 24 Earnings:

- Div/Shr 10C (est 10C)

- Net Interest Income $7.64B (est $9.25B)

- Sees Div payout Ratio Target Basis of 50% for 2024

- Announces Up $3B Buy Back

$ADS (-0,15%) | Adidas is optimistic after a strong third quarter and confirms a sales increase of 7.3% to 6.4 billion euros. Demand in Europe and growth in China are driving the development, while profits increase by 73.4% to 469 million euros.

$HYQ (-0,35%) | Hypoport increases revenue by 29% to 114 million euros in the third quarter and achieves an operating profit of 3.6 million euros, which is above analysts' expectations. The upturn in real estate finance is driving growth.

$LHA (+1,28%) | Lufthansa announces a savings program to increase adjusted operating profit by EUR 1.5 billion by 2026. Adjusted profit in the third quarter of 2024 falls by 9% to EUR 1.3 billion Deutsche Lufthansa AG expects an operating profit of between EUR 1.4 billion and EUR 1.8 billion for the full year 2024, after focusing on the cost structure in the third quarter. The share is benefiting from hopes of an easing of the Middle East conflict.

$CEC (-2,46%) | Ceconomy exceeds analysts' expectations with adjusted EBIT in the upper half of the range of 290 to 310 million euros. Sales increase by 5.3% to around 22.4 billion euros in the 2023/2024 financial year

$HFG (+0,69%) | HelloFresh Group achieves currency-adjusted revenue growth of 1.9% compared to the previous year and adjusted EBITDA ("AEBITDA") of €72 million

HelloFresh
$HFG (+0,69%) exceeded expectations in the third quarter and achieved an adjusted EBITDA of 72 million euros compared to 69 million euros in the same period last year, with revenue growth of 1,9 percent to 1,83 billion euros.

The EBITDA-forecast for 2024 was raised to 360 to 400 million, while sales growth is expected to be lower.

In the fourth quarter, the company plans to increase marketing expenditure as customer acquisition becomes seasonally more difficult. -Handelsblatt

Photo: HelloFresh

As every Sunday, the most important dates for the coming week, as well as the most important news from the past week.

The dates as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/Zvoh_ATJ8eU?si=HFvc8sRUsi38eXJf

Monday:

The ECB seems to have made the right decision last week. In Germany, producer prices fall for the 15th time in a row. This time more than expected. Producer prices fell by 1.4 %, 1.0 % had been expected. Energy in particular became cheaper. The price of other products even rose by an average of 1.5%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/inflation-rueckgang-der-deutschen-erzeugerpreise-beschleunigt-sich/100081404.html

The truck subsidiary of VW, $8TRA (-1,87%) Traton, can report a significantly better operating result than expected. The net cash flow is also developing strongly. VW holds just under 90% of Traton. Business is particularly good in the USA.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/auto-vw-lkw-holding-traton-macht-bessere-geschaefte-als-gedacht/100081595.html

$SAP (-0,03%) SAP earns strongly and raises its forecast. Sales increased by 10% to 8.5 billion euros in the third quarter, while profits rose by 28% to 2.28 billion euros. This growth is primarily due to AI applications in the cloud division, which are in demand from customers.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/softwarekonzern-sap-gewinn-steigt-um-28-prozent-und-bringt-konzern-ins-dilemma/100081365.html

Tuesday:

After the stop at $INTC (+1,8%) Intel, now the stop at the next highly subsidized chip factory in Saarland. ZF, a domestic company, was even supposed to invest here together with the US company Wolfspeed. ZF is now pulling out of the billion-euro project. Once again it is clear that a planned economy does not work. Subsidized settlements are not a sustainable location policy.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/zf-autozulieferer-zieht-sich-aus-wolfspeed-chipfabrik-im-saarland-zurueck/100081423.html

The IMF has also lowered its GDP growth forecast for Germany. This year will probably see stagnation. Growth of 0.8 % is still expected next year. By comparison, Spain is expected to grow by 2.9 % this year. The biggest problems are well known. Too much bureaucracy, too high a tax burden and too much austerity on the part of the state. In such a situation, the state should actually invest more (infrastructure, education, etc.) instead of making savings. However, competitiveness must also be increased.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/weltwirtschaft-iwf-prognose-sieht-deutschland-weiter-als-wachstumsschlusslicht/100079427.html

The $MCD (-0,31%) McDonald's share price plummeted after it became known that E. coli cases were probably attributable to it. Yesterday, McDonald's was still in the headlines for Donald Trump's appearance.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/10/22/mcdonalds-shares-fall-after-cdc-says-e-coli-outbreak-linked-to-quarter-pounders.html

The Bank of Canada is accelerating its interest rate cuts. The key interest rate was cut by 50 basis points on Wednesday. This leaves the interest rate at 3.75%. The central bank now wants growth again now that inflation rates are back in line.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7360509

Thursday:

The Purchasing Managers' Index in Germany has risen surprisingly sharply. Both the Bundesbank and the IMF expect Germany to stagnate in 2024. The purchasing managers' index figures could point to an upturn. The index rose to 48.4 points, while economists were only expecting 47.6 points. However, the index only signals growth above 50 points ...

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/einkaufsmanagerindex-talfahrt-der-deutschen-wirtschaft-gestoppt/100082484.html

Good figures from $RNO (+0,81%) Renault and also $TSLA (-4,58%) Tesla are driving car stocks higher today. Renault was able to increase sales thanks to new models. Although Tesla achieved lower sales than expected, its profits were impressive thanks to cost savings.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-renault-steigert-umsatz-mit-vielen-neuen-modellen-siltronic-leidet-unter-schwacher-nachfrage/24098412.html

Friday:

$MBG (-0,07%) Mercedes suffers from weak sales in China. Profits plummet by more than 50% in the third quarter. The return on sales falls below 5%. This puts the company on a par with core brand VW. In any case, too little for a luxury group. At least the cash flow is improving.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autobauer-gewinn-von-mercedes-benz-bricht-um-54-prozent-ein/100081520.html

$HFG (+0,69%) Hellofresh delivers Q3 figures that are well above market expectations. Due to the high short ratio, there may now be a short squeeze here. Sales increased by 1.9% to 1.8 billion euros. AEBITDA amounted to 72 million euros, 30 million euros more than expected. Hellofresh lowers its sales forecast but raises its AEBITDA forecast for the full year.

https://stock3.com/news/hellofresh-q3-ebitda-deutlich-ueber-markterwartung-aktie-steigt-deutlich-15599996

Following the Purchasing Managers' Index, the ifo Index also rises surprisingly strongly. The index rose from 85.4 to 86.5 points. Economists had only expected an increase to 85.6 points. The current business situation is therefore being viewed more positively again by managers.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-ifo-index-steigt-unerwartet-kraeftig/100082816.html

Most important dates in the coming week:

Tuesday: 14:00 House price index (USA)

Wednesday: 14:00 Inflation data (DE)

Thursday: 04:00 BoJ interest rate decision (Japan)

What other important dates can you think of?

#immos#inflation#boj

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/98gSyf4ik54?si=lSB_tDY1ht0EYRQS

Monday:

Food prices are rising in China 🇨🇳 and thus increasing inflation. In the first few years after coronavirus, China even had problems with deflation. Even now, inflation is only 0.6%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/inflation-anstieg-von-chinas-verbraucherpreisen-beschleunigt-sich/100067517.html

Tuesday:

Despite all the crises, more dividends will still be paid out in 2024. 92% of all companies worldwide are likely to increase their dividends. Overall, dividends paid out are likely to rise by 5% to 1.74 trillion US dollars worldwide. The 20 largest dividend payers worldwide in the second quarter include many German 🇩🇪Unternehmen $MBG (-0,07%) Mercedes (USD 6.1 billion),$ALV (-0,66%) Allianz (USD 5.8 billion), Deutsche Telekom (USD $DTE (-0,92%) Deutsche Telekom (USD 4.1 billion) and $BMW (+0,87%) BMW (USD 3.9 billion). The largest payout was made by $HSBA (-0,91%) HSBC (USD 11.7 billion). This is followed by the Swiss 🇨🇭Konzern $NESN (-0,19%) Nestlé (USD 8.7 billion).

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/aktien-das-sind-die-weltweit-groessten-dividendenzahler/100066172.html

The two tech companies $AAPL (+1,34%) Apple and $GOOGL (+0,94%) Alphabet must pay billions to the EU. Apple has now suffered a final defeat before the ECJ due to alleged state aid by Ireland. Apple now has to pay 13 billion euros in back taxes plus interest.

Alphabet also lost in court and has to pay a fine of 2.4 billion euros. The reason is that Alphabet probably favored its own price comparison service in search engine advertising.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/eugh-urteil-apple-muss-milliarden-an-steuern-zurueckzahlen/100067907.html

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/eugh-urteil-europaeischer-gerichtshof-bestaetigt-milliardenstrafe-fuer-google/100067884.html

$BMW (+0,87%) BMW cuts its targets and recalls 1.5 million cars. The main reason is probably faulty parts from suppliers. BMW is therefore focusing more on monitoring and training suppliers. Instead of 8 - 10 % profit margin, the target is now 6 - 7 %.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/bmw-autobauer-ruft-bis-zu-15-millionen-autos-zurueck-und-kassiert-gewinnziel/100067982.html

$VOW (+1,96%) VW unilaterally cancels the job guarantee. The termination letters for six collective agreements were handed over to IG-Metall Lower Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt today. Dismissals for operational reasons are possible from July 1, 2025. Previously, job guarantees were in place until 2029, with VW justifying the end with excessively high costs in Germany, which are no longer competitive.

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/vw-streicht-job-garantie-zum-ende-des-jahres-neue-details-zum-sparhammer-66e0551cd007b74a58276877

Wednesday:

Heated debate between Trump and Harris. Trump is directly convicted several times by the moderators with false statements. Immediately after the debate, Taylor Swift also speaks out in favor of Harris.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/tv-duell-vor-us-wahl-donald-trump-und-kamala-harris-liefern-sich-eine-hitzige-debatte/100068156.html

Major insider purchase at $HFG (+0,69%) Hellofresh, CEO Dominik Richter buys shares for more than 10 million euros.

https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten/EQS-DD-HelloFresh-SE-DSR-Ventures-GmbH-Kauf/36459409

There are many indications of an attempted takeover of $CBK (-1,64%) Commerzbank by $UCG (+0,05%) Unicredit buys directly from the German state for more than 700 million euros.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/banken-unicredit-steigt-bei-der-commerzbank-ein/100068216.html

Inflation in the USA falls to 2.5% shortly before the Fed meeting and is thus approaching the 2.0% target. Experts had only expected a fall to 2.6%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) remained at 3.2%. This should make it clear that the Fed is lowering interest rates. However, the amount of the cut is still unclear.

https://www.manager-magazin.de/finanzen/us-inflation-flaut-vor-zinswende-der-federal-reserve-ab-a-06c3e4b5-6579-43f5-917d-f860239c69ca

Thursday:

The ECB cuts the key interest rate by 25 basis points, which is in line with expectations. As a result, there has hardly been any impact on the stock market so far.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/europaeische-zentralbank-ezb-senkt-leitzins-auf-3-50-prozent-a-3fcb19ed-950f-413c-b21f-d7c25a36f31d

Producer prices in the US have risen slightly more than expected. However, the previous month's data was revised downwards slightly. Compared to the same month last year, producer prices rose by 1.7%. Producer prices are a leading indicator for the inflation rate in around 3 months' time.

https://www.ariva.de/news/usa-anstieg-der-erzeugerpreise-schwcht-sich-ab-11369313

Friday:

More and more market participants are expecting a large rate cut of 50 basis points at the Fed decision next week. In the meantime, 47% of interest rate traders believe a rate cut of half a percentage point is likely. If this is indeed the case, there is further upside potential for the markets. On the other hand, if this does not happen, there could be a major sell-off. This decision is therefore likely to move the markets in any case.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/trends/zinswende-steigende-wetten-auf-grossen-fed-zinsschritt-bewegen-die-maerkte/100068927.html

Most important dates in the coming week:

Tuesday: 11:00 ZEW Economic Sentiment (DE)

Wednesday: 20:00 Fed interest rate decision (USA)

Thursday: 13:00 BoE interest rate decision (UK)

12.09.2024

ECB interest rate decision today + Major insider buying at HelloFresh + Infineon reaches milestone + Gamestop to invest more with new share issue + Stubborn inflation puts investors in a buying mood + Technology stocks determine Nasdaq 100

Hellofresh $HFG (+0,69%) meanwhile, soared 14.7 percent. The main driver was a company announcement just before the close of trading the previous day, according to which CEO Dominik Richter had acquired Hellofresh shares worth around 10 million euros. Insider purchases by members of the Management Board are often seen on the stock market as a sign of management confidence in their own company.

The chip company Infineon $IFX (-1,35%) announced on Wednesday that it had achieved a potential milestone for the industry in the field of gallium nitride wafer production. Infineon described itself as the first company in the world to master 300-mm gallium nitride (GaN) wafer technology in an existing, scalable high-volume production facility. The company intends to use this to maximize capital efficiency in GaN production. According to Infineon, chip production on 300-millimeter wafers is technologically more advanced than on 200-millimeter wafers.

Gamestop $GME (+2,79%) share price fell more than 9% after the video game retailer announced it would issue more shares despite a drop in sales in the second quarter. The company, which became known as the focal point of the "meme stock" craze earlier in the decade, said it would use the proceeds from issuing up to 20 million new shares to fund "general corporate purposes," including potential "acquisitions and investments consistent with our investment policy."

Stubbornly high core inflation in the US did not go down well on the US stock markets on Wednesday. According to observers, this speaks more in favor of a "small" interest rate cut by the Fed in the coming week. The Dow Jones Industrial benchmark index lost 1.5 percent to 40,115 points and slipped to its lowest level since mid-August. The price losses were widespread and hardly any sector was able to escape the downward pressure. The core inflation rate, excluding energy and food prices, stood at 3.2 percent in August. "Housing costs have once again risen significantly, having already risen more sharply than expected in July," wrote Johannes Mayr, economist at asset manager Eyb & Wallwitz. Speculation in the meantime that the Fed would cut interest rates by 50 basis points had thus been significantly dampened.

Technology shares in the Nasdaq 100 fell less sharply by 0.5 percent to 18,729 points. Price gains by major chip manufacturers provided some support here. Shares from the renewable energy sector benefited on Wednesday from Kamala Harris' good performance in the TV debate with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. According to a stock market analyst, Harris' improved position is a positive prospect for companies in the renewable energy sector, as Trump is seen as an advocate of burning fossil fuels. Shares in photovoltaic companies First Solar and Solaredge gained 9 and 10 percent respectively. The fact that Trump was rather disappointing in the televised debate was also reflected in the 15% fall in the share price of Trump Media & Technology .

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

BHP Group AUD 0.74

Endeavour Mining 0.41 GBP

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

22:05 Adobe quarterly figures

Untimed: Moderna: Research and Development Day

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Fraport traffic figures August

08:00 DFV Deutsche Familienversicherung Half-year figures

Untimed: Thyssenkrupp: Supervisory Board meeting, topic among others spin-off Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Wholesale prices August PROGNOSE: n.a. previous: +0.3% yoy /-0.1% yoy
• 14:15 EU: ECB, outcome of the Governing Council meeting Deposit rate PROGNOSE: 3.50% previous: 3.75%
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) PROGNOSE: 225,000 previous: 227,000
• 14:30 US: Producer Prices August PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy Core (ex food and energy) PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy previous: 0.0% yoy
• 14:45 EU: ECB, press conference after Governing Council meeting and staff projection for growth and inflation in the eurozone

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming weeks.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/f0axgV1KRVs?si=6MLwRC5IQHK7FPqt

Monday:

$FRAS (+2,97%) Frasers seizes the opportunity and increases its stake in $BOSS (+0,51%) HUGO BOSS. The share had recently fallen by more than 50% compared to its highs in 2023. Frasers Group now directly holds more than 15% of the voting rights.

https://fashionunited.de/nachrichten/business/frasers-group-erhoht-beteiligung-an-hugo-boss/2024081257677

Tuesday:

$HFG (+0,69%) Hellofresh can grow the bottom line and the ready-to-eat segment grows by almost 45%, sales in the cooking box business shrink by 10%. Overall, sales increased by 0.9%. This means that Hellofresh is already able to compensate for the falling sales in the cooking box business and return to growth. In addition

Hellofresh was able to refinance itself favorably. Hellofresh therefore continues to have a solid capital structure.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/18373330-hellofresh-hits-7-5-aebitda-q2-2024-strong-performance

Producer prices in the USA 🇺🇸 are better than expected. Instead of +0.2 % compared to the previous month, it was +0.1 %. This increasingly points to a first interest rate cut at the beginning of September.

https://finanzmarktwelt.de/inflation-usa-erzeugerpreise-niedriger-was-nun-318977/?amp

Wednesday:

With the exception of Japan, there is growing evidence of a global turnaround in interest rates. Even the economically relatively insignificant (GDP: around USD 250 billion) island state of New Zealand 🇳🇿 has now lowered interest rates. The key interest rate has been lowered from 5.5% to 5.25%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/geldpolitik-neuseelands-zentralbank-senkt-nach-langer-pause-den-leitzins/100059828.html

At +2.9%, the inflation data from the USA 🇺🇸 was below expectations of +3.0%. The markets continue to rise accordingly, and an interest rate cut by the Fed is becoming more likely.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/usa-inflation-faellt-im-juli-auf-tiefsten-stand-seit-maerz-2021/100057609.html

Big deal in the food industry. The non-listed food giant Mars takes over the Pringles manufacturer $K (-0,77%) Kellanova. It is likely to be one of the biggest takeovers in the food industry ever. The confectionery giant Mars already has a turnover of USD 50 billion. With Kellanova, turnover will increase by a further USD 13 billion. The takeover is likely to cost USD 36 billion.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/pringles-hersteller-mars-will-kellanova-wohl-fuer-30-milliarden-dollar-kaufen/100059764.html

Thursday:

The trade union-affiliated IMK puts the probability of a recession in Germany at 49.2%. The main problems are domestic consumer demand and general demand from abroad.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/imk-institut-rezessionsrisiko-in-deutschland-steigt-studie-zufolge-auf-fast-50-prozent/100060064.html

$CSCO (+0,68%) Cisco has exceeded expectations with its sales forecast for the current quarter. In the previous quarter, sales fell by 10% and profits plummeted by 45%.

https://www.finanzen.net/amp/optimismus-cisco-aktie-steigt-prognose-uebertrifft-erwartungen-13767655

Domestic consumption is driving the economy in Japan 🇯🇵. In the 2nd quarter, GDP grew by an annualized 3.1%. Experts had only expected growth of 2.1%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/konjunktur-privater-konsum-treibt-japans-wirtschaftswachstum-an/100060045.html

$BAYN (+0,17%) Bayer can dismiss a lawsuit in an appeals court. As there are contradictory rulings from appeal courts, Bayer continues to demand that the glyphosate case be brought before the Supreme Court.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/pharmakonzern-bayer-verbucht-juristischen-sieg-im-us-streit-ueber-glyphosat/100060322.html

Key dates in the coming week:

Tuesday: 14:30 Inflation data (Canada)

Wednesday: 20:00 FOMC Minutes (USA)

Thursday: 10:00 Purchasing Managers' Index (EU)