Infineon Technologies

$IFX (-0,01%)

It's time to say goodbye to this German share too.

The figures were more than modest and improvement is possibly in sight in 2025/2026.

I've put in a stop loss and if it doesn't hit, I'll sell on Monday for a savings plan.

The only German stocks I have left are SAP, Allianz, DHL and Derma, but that should be fine.

Analyst updates, 14.11. 👇🏼

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- JEFFERIES raises the price target for TESLA from USD 195 to USD 300. Hold. $TSLA (+0,29%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for INIT from EUR 49.50 to EUR 53. Buy $INIT

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for DEUTSCHE BANK from EUR 21.10 to EUR 21.30. Buy. $DBK (+0%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for AUTO1 from EUR 11 to EUR 12. Buy. $AG1 (+0,1%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 43 to EUR 52. Buy. $ENR (+0%)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for SCOUT24 from EUR 83 to EUR 110. Buy. $G24 (+0%)

- GOLDMAN raises the target price for RIVIAN from USD 10 to USD 12. Neutral. $RIVN (+0,26%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for MOLLER-MAERSK from DKK 12000 to DKK 12300. Neutral. $MAERSK B (+0,05%)

- UBS raises the price target for CISCO from USD 55 to USD 62. Neutral. $CSCO (+0,13%)

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- WARBURG RESEARCH downgrades PORSCHE SE from Buy to Hold and lowers price target from EUR 60 to EUR 36. $PAH3 (+0%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for EXASOL from EUR 6.30 to EUR 6. Buy. $EXL (+0,24%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for BRENNTAG from EUR 75 to EUR 69. Buy. $BNR (+2,15%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for INFINEON from EUR 43 to EUR 39. Buy. $IFX (-0,01%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for VERBIO from EUR 20 to EUR 17. Hold. $VBK (+0%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for JENOPTIK from EUR 45 to EUR 39. Buy. $JEN (+0%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for ELRINGKLINGER from EUR 6 to EUR 4.50. Hold. $ZIL2 (+0,06%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for BAYER from EUR 29 to EUR 23. Hold. $BAYN (+0%)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the target price for SAF-HOLLAND from EUR 30 to EUR 28. Buy. $SFQ (+0%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the target price for RWE from EUR 40 to EUR 36. Buy. $RWE (+0%)

- METZLER lowers the price target for JUNGHEINRICH from EUR 42 to EUR 38. Buy. $JUN3 (+0%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for RTL from EUR 33 to EUR 26.50. Equal-Weight. $RTLL (+0%)

- BERENBERG downgrades VESTAS from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from DKK 180 to DKK 120. $VWS (+0,07%)

Infineon Q3 2024 $IFX (-0,01%)

Financial performance:

• Revenue: Infineon generated revenue of €3.919 billion in the fourth quarter of the 2024 fiscal year, an increase of 6% compared to the previous quarter, but a decrease of 6% year-on-year. For the full 2024 fiscal year, revenue amounted to EUR 14.955 billion, a decrease of 8% compared to the previous year.
• Segment result: The segment result in the fourth quarter of 2024 amounted to EUR 832 million, with a segment result margin of 21.2%. For the financial year as a whole, the segment result amounted to EUR 3.105 billion, with a margin of 20.8%.

Balance sheet overview:

• Total assets: As at September 30, 2024, total assets amounted to 28.639 billion euros.
• Total liabilities: Total liabilities amounted to 11.420 billion euros.
• Equity: Total equity amounted to 17.219 billion euros.

Details of the profit and loss account:

• Profit/loss: Profit from continuing operations in the fourth quarter of 2024 amounted to 384 million euros. However, the total loss for the quarter amounted to EUR 84 million, which is attributable to significant losses from discontinued operations.
• Earnings per share: Basic earnings per share from continuing operations amounted to EUR 0.29.

Cash flow overview:

• Free cash flow: Free cash flow improved significantly in the fourth quarter to 1.145 billion euros, compared to 393 million euros in the previous quarter.
• Adjusted free cash flow: For the full financial year, adjusted free cash flow amounted to 1.690 billion euros.

Key figures and profitability metrics:

• Gross margin: The adjusted gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 42.2%, constant compared to the previous quarter.
• Return on investment: The return on capital for the financial year 2024 was 8.5%.

Segment information:

• Automotive Division (ATV): Sales in the fourth quarter of 2024 amounted to EUR 2.149 billion, with a segment result margin of 25.6%.
• Connected Secure Systems (CSS): Sales increased to 406 million euros, with a segment result margin of 15.3 %.
• Power & Sensor Systems (PSS): Sales amounted to 861 million euros, with a segment result margin of 12.2%.

Competitive position: Infineon's strategic focus is on growth areas such as artificial intelligence and silicon carbide, with a focus on innovation and targeted investments to strengthen its competitive position.

Outlook and management commentary:

• Outlook for FY 2025: A slight decline in revenue compared to FY 2024 is expected, with an adjusted gross margin of around 40% and a segment result margin in the mid to high teens.
• Outlook for Q1 FY 2025: Sales are forecast at around EUR 3.2 billion, with a segment result margin in the mid-teens.

Risks and opportunities:

• Risks: Ongoing inventory corrections and macroeconomic uncertainties are likely to weigh on short-term performance.
• Opportunities: Growth potential in the areas of AI and silicon carbide as well as strategic partnerships offer significant opportunities.

Positive aspects:

• Strong sales growth of 6% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter.
• Significant improvement in free cash flow in the fourth quarter.
• Leading position in silicon carbide and artificial intelligence.
• Successful cost management and structural improvements.
• High segment result margin in the automotive sector.

Negative aspects:

• 8% decline in total revenue for the 2024 financial year.
• Losses from discontinued operations impact overall profitability.
• Ongoing inventory corrections impair transparency and demand.
• Expected slight decline in sales in the 2025 financial year.
• Return on capital employed below company targets.

12.11.2024

MicroStrategy acquires around 27,200 Bitcoin for around USD 2 billion in cash + Lack of growth impetus: Infineon expects further declines + Record summer at SIXT + Cancom warns of profit decline

MicroStrategy $MSTR (-1,26%) Incorporated, known as the company with the largest Bitcoin holdings in the world, announced on Monday the acquisition of approximately 27,200 Bitcoin in the period from October 31, 2024 to November 10, 2024. This announcement comes at a time when the Bitcoin price has surpassed the 81,000 US dollar mark - a development that observers associate with US President-elect Donald Trump's positive attitude towards digital assets. ...

https://de.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/microstrategy-erwirbt-etwa-27200-bitcoin-fur-rund-2-milliarden-usdollar-in-bar-93CH-2773580

After a weak financial year, chip manufacturer Infineon $IFX (-0,01%) is cautious about its future development. The company announced in Neuberg on Tuesday that revenue in 2024/25 (as at the end of September) is likely to fall slightly. The segment result margin, which measures operating profitability, is expected to be in the mid to high tens of percent range. This is well below analysts' expectations. Customers' warehouses are still full, they said. "With the exception of artificial intelligence, our end markets are currently offering hardly any growth impetus and the cyclical recovery is being delayed," commented CEO Jochen Hanebeck. Infineon is therefore preparing for a subdued business performance.

The company expects a weak start to the year. In the traditionally weaker first quarter, sales are likely to fall to 3.2 billion euros, compared to 3.9 billion euros in the previous quarter. The segment result margin is expected to be in the mid-teens, after 21.2% in the previous three months.

Record summer for SIXT $SIX2 (+0%)

• Revenue at all-time high: EUR 1.24 billion, an increase of 10% compared to Q3 2023 and around 60% compared to the last pre-corona year 2019
• Strong operating performance with record EBITDA of EUR 542.4 million High demand in summer business coupled with tight fleet led to higher capacity utilization than in 2023
• Optimized vehicle purchasing: purchasing at improved conditions and progressive de-risking after overcoming the years of vehicle shortages
• Catch-up in earnings: after a difficult start to the year and a persistently challenging market environment, earnings before taxes (EBT) in Q3 of EUR 246.4 million back at the very positive level of the same quarter of the previous year with an EBT margin of 19.8%
• Outlook: Further significant increase in Group sales expected for the year as a whole; EBT forecast of around EUR 340 million, which is in line with current market expectations (EUR 352 million)

The IT service provider Cancom $COK (+0,08%) is reducing its annual targets due to new political uncertainties, particularly in its core markets of Germany and Austria. The SDax company announced on Monday after the close of trading in Munich that sales in 2024 are only expected to rise to between 1.65 and 1.75 billion euros, compared to a good 1.5 billion euros in the previous year. Previously, 1.75 to 2 billion euros had been on the cards. The Cancom share came under pressure after the news was announced and traded 6.6 percent lower. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) are now likely to fall below the previous year's level in the worst-case scenario: Cancom's Executive Board considers only 112 to 130 million euros to be realistic for 2024. Previously, the target was 130 to 155 million. The management justified the pessimistic outlook with the fact that Cancom usually generates a significant part of its business with public sector clients and SME customers in the fourth quarter.

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

IBM USD 1.67

Visa (A) USD 0.59

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

09:00 Softbank quarterly figures

12:00 Home Depot | Spotify quarterly figures

No time specified: Tyson Foods | Mosaic Quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 KWS Saat | Brenntag | Wienerberger quarterly figures

07:30 Bayer | Infineon | Elringklinger | Indus Holding | Sixt | SAF-Holland quarterly figures

07:35 Jenoptik | United Internet | Jungheinrich quarterly figures

07:50 1&1 | Medios | PVA TePla quarterly figures

08:00 Secunet Security | Cancom | Verbio | Astrazeneca | Vodafone | Leifheit | OHB quarterly figures

09:00 EnBW | Ionos | KSB Quarterly figures

10:00 Brenntag | Bayer | Sixt PK

11:00 Jenoptik PK

13:00 EnBW Analyst Conference

14:00 Bayer | Brenntag Analyst Conference

15:00 Elringklinger PK

22:05 Flutter Entertainment Q3 sales | Alcon quarterly figures

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Consumer prices (final) October PROGNOSE: +0.4% yoy/+2.0% yoy Preliminary: +0.4% yoy/+2.0% yoy Previous: 0.0% yoy/+1.6% yoy HICP PROGNOSE: +0.4% yoy/+2.4% yoy Preliminary: +0.4% yoy/+2.4% yoy Previous: -0.1% yoy/+1.8% yoy
• 08:00 UK: Labor market data October unemployment benefit recipients Unemployment rate 3 months (ILO) FORECAST: 4.1% previous: 4.0%
• 11:00 DE: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index November FORECAST: 13.3 points previously: 13.1 points Economic situation FORECAST: -84.4 points previously: -86.9 points
• 11:00 US: Philadelphia Fed President Harker, speech on "Fintech, AI and the Changing Financial Landscape"

Largest European tech stocks by market capitalization

SAP € 259 billion $SAP (+0%)

ASML € 253 billion $ASML (+0,01%)

ARM Holdings € 160 billion $ARM (+0,47%)

NXP Semiconductors € 54 billion $NXPI (-0,23%)

Dassault Systèmes € 44 billion $DSY (+0%)

Infineon € 40 billion $IFX (-0,01%)

Capgemini € 32 billion $CAP (+0%)

ASM International € 26 billion $ASM (+0%)

Ericsson € 26 billion $ERIC B (+0,05%)

Hexagon € 23 billion $HEXA B (+0,05%)

Nokia € 22 billion $NOKIA (+0,05%)

STMicroelectronics € 22 billion $STM (+0%)

Logitech € 12 billion $LOGN (+0%)

Sage Group € 12 billion $SGE (+0%)

>> Which ones are you invested in and how are they performing? Most of these European tech stocks can be found in the iShares MSCI Europe Information Technology - ETF, WKN: A2QBZ3

#halbleiter
#semiconductor
#techaktien
#europa
#software
#ki
#ai
#künstlicheinteligenz

Companies that I find interesting but do not yet have in my portfolio and that have a 10-year average ROIC of over 10% and a 5-year average ROCE and ROIC of over 10%, $ANET (+0,16%), $MA (+0,15%) , $VRTX (+0,09%) , $RMS (+0%) , $PGHN (+0%) , $COLO B (+0,85%) , $ACN (+0,12%) , $MNST (+0,69%)
$FICO (+1,37%) , $MCO (+0%) , $KNIN (+0%) , $S&P Global, $ISRG (-0,04%)
$III (+0%) , $BKNG (-0,09%)
$HLAG (+0,09%) , $QCOM (+0,05%) , $CFR (+0%) and $IFX (-0,01%) . Already blatant companies

Semiconductor shares since their 52-week highs

-61% Intel $INTC (+0,48%)

-54% Aixtron $AIXA (+0,08%)

-45% STMicroelectronics $STMPA (+0%)

-44% Micron Technology $MU (+0,08%)

-37% Globalfoundries $GFS (+0,68%)

-36% BE Semiconductor $OXVE

-33% Lam Research $LRCX

-29% AMD $AMD (+0,11%)

-29% Qualcomm $QCOM (+0,05%)

-28% ON Semiconductor $ON (+0,23%)

-27% ASML $ASML (+0,01%)

-26% Applied Materials $AMAT (+0,01%)

-26% Elmos Semiconductor $ELG (+0,16%)

-24% Microchip Techn. $MCHP (+0%)

-23% ARM $ARM (+0,47%)

-23% Synopsys $SNPS (+1,01%)

-23% Infineon $IFX (-0,01%)

-22% NXP Semiconductors $NXPI (-0,23%)

-20% Cadence Design $CDNS (-0,2%)

-17% Nvidia $NVDA (+0,1%)

-17% VanEck Semicon. ETF $IE00BMC38736 (+0,19%)

-17% Nordic Semi $NRS

-17% KLA Corporation $KLAC (-0,04%)

-13% Marvell Technology $MRVL (+0,28%)

-12% TSMC $2330

-11% Broadcom $AVGO (+0,15%)

-7% Texas Instruments $TXN (+0,33%)

-6% Monolithic Power Syst. $MPWR (-1,05%)

>> Which stocks are you invested in and how are they performing? Which of these stocks do you have on your watchlist? #semiconductor
#halbleiter

12.09.2024

ECB interest rate decision today + Major insider buying at HelloFresh + Infineon reaches milestone + Gamestop to invest more with new share issue + Stubborn inflation puts investors in a buying mood + Technology stocks determine Nasdaq 100

Hellofresh $HFG (+0,12%) meanwhile, soared 14.7 percent. The main driver was a company announcement just before the close of trading the previous day, according to which CEO Dominik Richter had acquired Hellofresh shares worth around 10 million euros. Insider purchases by members of the Management Board are often seen on the stock market as a sign of management confidence in their own company.

The chip company Infineon $IFX (-0,01%) announced on Wednesday that it had achieved a potential milestone for the industry in the field of gallium nitride wafer production. Infineon described itself as the first company in the world to master 300-mm gallium nitride (GaN) wafer technology in an existing, scalable high-volume production facility. The company intends to use this to maximize capital efficiency in GaN production. According to Infineon, chip production on 300-millimeter wafers is technologically more advanced than on 200-millimeter wafers.

Gamestop $GME (+0,25%) share price fell more than 9% after the video game retailer announced it would issue more shares despite a drop in sales in the second quarter. The company, which became known as the focal point of the "meme stock" craze earlier in the decade, said it would use the proceeds from issuing up to 20 million new shares to fund "general corporate purposes," including potential "acquisitions and investments consistent with our investment policy."

Stubbornly high core inflation in the US did not go down well on the US stock markets on Wednesday. According to observers, this speaks more in favor of a "small" interest rate cut by the Fed in the coming week. The Dow Jones Industrial benchmark index lost 1.5 percent to 40,115 points and slipped to its lowest level since mid-August. The price losses were widespread and hardly any sector was able to escape the downward pressure. The core inflation rate, excluding energy and food prices, stood at 3.2 percent in August. "Housing costs have once again risen significantly, having already risen more sharply than expected in July," wrote Johannes Mayr, economist at asset manager Eyb & Wallwitz. Speculation in the meantime that the Fed would cut interest rates by 50 basis points had thus been significantly dampened.

Technology shares in the Nasdaq 100 fell less sharply by 0.5 percent to 18,729 points. Price gains by major chip manufacturers provided some support here. Shares from the renewable energy sector benefited on Wednesday from Kamala Harris' good performance in the TV debate with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. According to a stock market analyst, Harris' improved position is a positive prospect for companies in the renewable energy sector, as Trump is seen as an advocate of burning fossil fuels. Shares in photovoltaic companies First Solar and Solaredge gained 9 and 10 percent respectively. The fact that Trump was rather disappointing in the televised debate was also reflected in the 15% fall in the share price of Trump Media & Technology .

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

BHP Group AUD 0.74

Endeavour Mining 0.41 GBP

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

22:05 Adobe quarterly figures

Untimed: Moderna: Research and Development Day

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Fraport traffic figures August

08:00 DFV Deutsche Familienversicherung Half-year figures

Untimed: Thyssenkrupp: Supervisory Board meeting, topic among others spin-off Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Wholesale prices August PROGNOSE: n.a. previous: +0.3% yoy /-0.1% yoy
• 14:15 EU: ECB, outcome of the Governing Council meeting Deposit rate PROGNOSE: 3.50% previous: 3.75%
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) PROGNOSE: 225,000 previous: 227,000
• 14:30 US: Producer Prices August PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy Core (ex food and energy) PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy previous: 0.0% yoy
• 14:45 EU: ECB, press conference after Governing Council meeting and staff projection for growth and inflation in the eurozone

Feedback on my ETF and portfolio weighting

Hi guys, I've been a silent reader of many posts and discussions so far and thought I'd join in, because what better way to get feedback than to take opinions from strangers on the internet to heart?

About me:

I am 24 years old and come from Switzerland. I currently work in auditing and study business administration part-time. I started investing in March of this year. I would like to tell you that I thought about and defined an investment strategy BEFORE I started investing.

At the beginning, I mainly focused on individual stocks such as $ADBE (+0,12%) , $SPOT (-0,08%) ,$ENR (+0%) and $IFX (-0,01%) (which have performed well so far). Now I've realized that an ETF strategy is more sustainable than holding a lot of individual stocks, as I can't possibly keep up with every single company on a regular basis (annual reports, trends, etc.).

I started investing in ETFs with findependent (a Swiss broker). This broker buys ETFs automatically, with the advantage that you don't have to choose the ETFs yourself. Unfortunately, I noticed that the broker invested in 10 different ETFs, which I think is too much for a portfolio size of less than 15k, as I also hold other positions such as individual stocks.

So I am now reallocating and have found the following interesting ETFs at my neobank which I plan to invest in as follows:

$CSSX5E (-0,09%) 150 per month

$XDPU (+0,03%) 150 per month

$VWRL (+0,02%) 200 per month

I mainly plan a growth strategy, but hold 1-2 shares for the dividends. I plan a long-term investment of the products and don't think much of short-term gambles.

I will sell some individual stocks and put them into ETFs, I am still considering how heavily the ETFs and individual stocks are weighted overall in the portfolio, as I also hold a little $BTC (+0,99%) and alternative investments (whisky and LEGO). Does anyone have any tips on how I can define a sensible weighting?

Many thanks in advance for (critical) feedback :)

04.09.2024

US antitrust watchdogs have questions for Nvidia + Sales figures from the semiconductor sector shock investors + Cost savings at VW not a selling point

The dominance in chips for artificial intelligence has made the chip company Nvidia $NVDA (+0,1%) into the sights of American competition authorities. The US Department of Justice has requested information from Nvidia and other companies with legally binding requests, the financial service Bloomberg reported. The antitrust watchdogs are concerned, among other things, that Nvidia could make it more difficult for customers to switch to the competition, according to sources close to the matter. Nvidia has benefited from the AI boom more than almost any other company. The company's chips have established themselves as the leading hardware for training software with artificial intelligence in data centers. This has brought Nvidia explosive growth in turnover, profit and share price. In addition to the chips, the company also earns money from software. Rivals such as AMD and Intel have so far found it difficult to seriously compete with Nvidia in this business.

Disappointing sales figures from the semiconductor industry sent shockwaves through the sector on Tuesday. Shares in the chip company Nvidia, for example, were hit hard, plummeting by almost seven percent in New York, making them one of the weakest stocks in the Nasdaq 100. The technology-heavy index recently fell by more than two percent. Nvidia shares had already come under heavy pressure recently following a disappointing outlook. Since the beginning of the year, however, they are still up more than 120 percent. This is by far the strongest increase in value of all stocks listed in the Nasdaq 100. In New York, the following also fell ARM Holdings $ARM (+0,47%) , Intel $INTC (+0,48%) and KLA Corporation fell between six and seven percent on Tuesday. Among the biggest losers in the leading European index EuroStoxx 50 were ASML $ASML (+0,01%) fell by 4.4 percent, and in Paris STMicro $STMPA (+0%) fell by 4.6 percent. In Frankfurt Infineon $IFX (-0,01%) lost 4.7 percent, which put them in last place in the leading Dax index.

Car shares were also weak. The VW share $VOW3 (+0%) slipped by 1.2 percent. The tightening of austerity measures is not seen as a reason to buy. DZ Bank, for example, said that the market's profit estimates for 2024 and 2025 could fall. This is because costs for restructuring and personnel measures could have a negative impact, and the news also implies a weak development of the VW brand. Other car stocks such as Mercedes $MBG (+0%) and BMW $BMW (+0%) fell by up to 1.9 percent.

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Aegon EUR 0.16

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

22:05 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

09:30 Volkswagen works meeting at the main plant in Wolfsburg

14:00 Volkswagen Works Council meeting | Logitech H

Economic data

• 09:45 IT: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing August PROGNOSIS: 52.4 previous: 51.7
• 09:50 FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) August PROGNOSE: 55.0 1st release: 55.0 PREV: 50.1 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (2nd release) PROGNOSE: 52.7 1st release: 52.7 PREV: 49.1
• 09:55 DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) August PROGNOSE: 51.4 1st release: 51.4 previous: 52.5 Total Purchasing Managers' Index PROGNOSE: 48.5 1st release: 48.5 previous: 49.1
• 10:00 EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing euro area (2nd release) August PROGNOSE: 53.3 1st release: 53.3 previous: 51.9 Purchasing Managers' Index total PROGNOSE: 51.2 1st release: 51.2 previous: 50.2
• 10:30 UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) August 1st release: 53.3 previous: 52.5
• 11:00 EU: Producer Prices July Eurozone PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy/-2.5% yoy previous: +0.5% yoy/-3.2% yoy
• 14:30 US: July trade balance PROGNOSE: -79.0 bn USD previous: -73.11 bn USD
• 15:45 US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Services (2nd release) August 1st release: 55.2 previous: 55.0
• 16:00 US: Industrial New Orders July PROGNOSE: +4.9% yoy previous: -3.3% yoy