Henkel AG

Analsyst updates, 08.11.

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- GOLDMAN upgrades BIONTECH from Neutral to Buy and raises price target from USD 90 to USD 137. $BNTX (+6,37%)

- BOFA raises target price for UNDER ARMOUR from USD 9 to USD 13. Neutral. $UAA (+1,15%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 29 to EUR 35. Hold. $DHE

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 197 to EUR 200. Buy. $SIE (-0,41%)

- JEFFERIES raises the price target for HOCHTIEF from EUR 135 to EUR 138. Buy. $HOT (+1,27%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS from EUR 60 to EUR 62. Buy. $SHL (-0,87%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for NORDEX from EUR 18 to EUR 19. Buy. $NDX1 (-3,17%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for RATIONAL from 832 EUR to 841 EUR. Hold. $RAA (+1,85%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for AXA from 37 EUR to 39 EUR. Buy. $CS (+0,54%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for BASTEI LÜBBE from EUR 11.70 to EUR 12.20. Buy. $BST (+0%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for ARCELORMITTAL from EUR 28 to EUR 29. Buy. $MT (+1,18%)

- DZ BANK raises the price target for SWISS RE from CHF 130 to CHF 140. Buy. $SREN (+1,31%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from EUR 99 to EUR 110. Neutral. $HEI (-0,13%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 35 to EUR 41. Hold. $DTG (+0,21%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX upgrades REDCARE PHARMACY from Reduce to Hold. $RDC (-3,11%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for HENKEL from EUR 67 to EUR 73. Neutral. $HEN (+0,21%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for FREENET from EUR 27 to EUR 28. Neutral. $FNTN (+0,14%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for ABOUT YOU from EUR 3.10 to EUR 3.40. Underweight. $YOU (+1,8%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for NEMETSCHEK from EUR 108 to EUR 125. Overweight. $NEM (-1,17%)

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- BOFA lowers the price target for PINTEREST from USD 45 to USD 39. Buy. $PINS

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 56 to EUR 55. Buy. $DTG (+0,21%)

- UBS lowers the price target for JCDECAUX from EUR 21.60 to EUR 18.50. Neutral. $DEC (-0,84%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for ADTRAN HOLDING from EUR 9.70 to EUR 9.30. Buy. $ADTN (+6,1%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for NORDEX from EUR 18 to EUR 17. Outperform. $NDX1 (-3,17%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for VESTAS from DKK 99 to DKK 80. Underweight. $VWS (-1,6%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 62 to EUR 59. Buy. $FRA (-1,27%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for GSK from GBP 15.50 to GBP 14.50. Equal-Weight. $GSK

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for COMPUGROUP from EUR 23 to EUR 21. Buy. $COP (-0,21%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for JUNGHEINRICH from EUR 41 to EUR 39. Buy. $JUN3 (+1,85%)

- JEFFERIES lowers the target price for SUSS MICROTEC from EUR 87 to EUR 75. Buy. $SMHN (+3,96%)

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- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises its price target for BMW from EUR 90 to EUR 95. Buy. $DBK (+0,74%)

- BERNSTEIN raises the price target for QUALCOMM from USD 200 to USD 215. Outperform. $QCOM (+1,7%)

- UBS raises the price target for LYFT from USD 13 to USD 18. Neutral. $LYFT (-2,14%)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for SIEMENS HEALTH from EUR 60.50 to EUR 62.50. Overweight. $SHL (-0,87%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for KONTRON from EUR 28 to EUR 28.40. Buy. $KTN (-1,71%)

- UBS upgrades KINGSPAN GROUP from Neutral to Buy. Target price 90 EUR. $KRX (+1,52%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for ZEAL NETWORK from EUR 59 to EUR 64. Buy. $TIMA (-0,58%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for VONOVIA from EUR 42.70 to EUR 43.70. Buy. $VNA (-0,83%)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for AHOLD DELHAIZE from EUR 30 to EUR 31. Equal-Weight. $AD (-1,04%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for FMC from EUR 38.50 to EUR 39. Equal-Weight. $FMC (+2,34%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for COMMERZBANK from EUR 18 to EUR 18.40. Overweight. $CBK (-1,01%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for PUMA SE from EUR 40 to EUR 44. Neutral. $PUM (-2,77%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for JUST EAT TAKEAWAY from GBP 13.96 to GBP 14.15. Overweight. $TKWY (+0,18%)

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- JEFFERIES downgrades PALANTIR from Hold to Underperform. Target price USD 28. $PLTR (+0,69%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for NOVO NORDISK from DKK 1100 to DKK 1000. Buy. $NOVO B (-2,54%)

- RBC lowers the price target for NIKE from 82 USD to 80 USD. Sector Perform. $NKE (+3,29%)

- ODDO BHF downgrades ASM INTERNATIONAL to Outperform. Target price EUR 960. $ASM (+1,39%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX downgrades HENSOLDT from Buy to Hold. Target price EUR 34. $HAG (+1,93%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for ZALANDO from EUR 40 to EUR 36. Buy. $ZAL (+0,47%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for VESTAS from DKK 165 to DKK 150. Hold. $VWS (-1,6%)

- BOFA downgrades SIEMENS ENERGY from Buy to Neutral. Target price EUR 40. $ENR (+3,25%)

- METZLER lowers the price target for VONOVIA from EUR 28.50 to EUR 28. Sell. $VNA (-0,83%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for TEAMVIEWER from EUR 18 to EUR 15.50. Overweight. $TMV (-1,8%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for KLÖCKNER & CO from EUR 6 to EUR 5.70. Buy. $KCOB

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the target price for NORMA GROUP from EUR 32 to EUR 27. Buy. $NOEJ (-0,17%)

- WARBURG downgrades EDAG ENGINEERING from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 13 to EUR 9.50. $ED4 (-0,52%)

- LBBW lowers the price target for ALLGEIER from EUR 24 to EUR 20. Buy. $AEIA

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for HENKEL from EUR 79 to EUR 77. Equal-Weight. $HEN (+0,21%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for KRONES from EUR 157 to EUR 154. Buy. $KRN (+1,76%)

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week:

https://youtube.com/shorts/f7psnYvAflo?si=-AdiYVwhNRq8WERK

Monday:

Business is getting worse for many companies in China 🇨🇳. This is not necessarily due to stronger competition. The Chinese economy is generally worse. It has to do with the real estate crisis, which is also having an impact on consumption. GDP growth has now fallen to 4.7%, which is below expectations.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/wirtschaftsdaten-chinas-wirtschaft-waechst-langsamer-als-erwartet-sozialer-vulkan-brodelt/100051565.html

Tuesday:

$BOSS (-2,36%) HUGO BOSS cuts its forecast for the year. The current market environment is challenging. The competitor Burberry already had to adjust its own forecast yesterday. Nevertheless, the Group still expects sales to increase by 1 - 4 % to EUR 4.2 - 4.35 billion. The forecast for EBIT has been lowered to -15 % to +5 %.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/dienstleister/modekonzern-marktumfeld-herausfordernd-hugo-boss-kappt-jahresprognose/100053148.html

At $ADS (-1,54%) Adidas also recently lowered its forecasts. Now the opposite picture. The company is probably heading for double-digit sales growth again and the forecast has been raised. A billion-euro profit could be possible again for the year as a whole. The further sell-off of the Yeezy collection alone brought in 50 million extra profit. With Spain and Argentina, Adidas has also backed the right teams.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/sportartikelkonzern-adidas-erhoeht-erneut-gewinnprognose-aktie-legt-zu/100053343.html

Retail sales in the USA 🇺🇸 were convincing. There was only stagnation. However, the US economy is unlikely to slide into recession despite the high interest rates, which will also cause the US stock markets to rise further.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-us-konjunkturdaten-treiben-wall-street-an/100053308.html

Wednesday:

$HEN (+0,21%) Henkel (consumer goods manufacturer) can show significantly better figures. Operating profit increased by 28.4% and the forecast was raised. Sales also increased in the mid-single-digit percentage range.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/konsumgueter-henkel-steigert-gewinn-um-fast-30-prozent-und-hebt-prognose-an/100053560.html

Donald Trump is questioning the USA's defense of Taiwan, causing a sell-off in the chip sector. As more and more evidence points to a Trump election victory, his words are already influencing the global markets.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/asml-nvidia-tsmc-amd-aktienkurse-der-chiphersteller-brechen-ein/100053589.html

Thursday:

$TSM (+1,17%) TSMC exceeds expectations, but Trump's statements overshadow the good figures. The share price falls in pre-market trading, despite a surprising 36% increase in profit.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-novartis-hebt-prognose-an-abb-meldet-deutlich-bessere-geschaefte/24098412.html

As expected, the ECB refrains from lowering interest rates for the time being. However, the ECB considers itself to be on course, which is also being signaled by companies that expect fewer price increases and lower wage demands. This will slow down inflation.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/geldpolitik-ezb-verzichtet-zunaechst-auf-weitere-zinssenkung/100053214.html

Friday:

Due to a faulty update at $CRWD (+2,94%) Crowdstrike, large parts of the world had connection problems today. Fortunately, we were not affected, as we ran a workshop with our learning software all day today. However, this meant that business operations were restricted at many companies today. This is all the more annoying as Crowdstrike is actually an IT security company. This has probably caused irreparable damage to our reputation.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/crowdstrike-dieses-unternehmen-hat-die-welt-ins-it-chaos-gestuerzt/100054032.html

Most important dates in the coming week:

Wednesday: 9:30 Purchasing Managers' Index (DE)

Thursday: 14:30 Economic data (USA)

Friday: 1:30 Inflation data (Japan)

A tale from our youth 👨🏻‍🔧🏭

Since I had some time today and took the opportunity to stow away my relics of days gone by, I found the mementos of when I started my career. Both the badge and the IGBCE membership card.

For those who are not familiar with it: The Industriegewerkschaft - Bergbau, Chemie, Energie is the second largest industrial union in Germany after IG Metall. It represents the interests of the 580,000 members in the mining, chemical and energy sectors in Germany.

Some readers may be interested to know what impact the current wage negotiations in the chemical industry may have on German shares in this sector.

The chemical industry currently employs around 585,000 people. Of these, around 464,000 are considered "employees".

The largest employer in the industry in Germany is BASF $BAS (-1,23%) with just under 51,000 employees. It is followed by Merck $MRK (+0,07%) (approx. 28,000) and Bayer $BAYN (-0,14%) (approx. 22,000), but also Henkel $HEN (+0,21%) Lanxess $LXS (+0,21%) and Covestro $1COV (-0,59%) are also major listed employers in the industry in Germany.

What can be recognized?

Across the industry, all companies have been deeply affected by past price shocks and the resulting economic weakness. This can be clearly seen in the share prices due to the price jumps in electricity and gas. Although the prices for electricity and gas have fallen back to an acceptable level, the order situation is rather miserable. The 3rd quarter of 2024 promises an improvement.

But could an economic upturn also boost profits again?

In the industry, long-term supply contracts are concluded. Supply contracts with reliable partners are rarely terminated. Instead, higher prices are passed on to the end customer. In many places, however, customers are no longer prepared to dig deeper into their pockets, which is why it is expensive to retain customers or acquire new ones. And if they do? Then new customers are lured in by low-cost offers, even though producers have to pay extra for years. The important thing here is that the production plant costs remain lower than the loss due to new contracts. Depending on the size of an idle production plant, the costs per hour can be in the four to five-digit euro range. So: the main thing is to produce, regardless of whether you have to pay hundreds of euros for months for a supply contract. The losses can be offset in the balance sheet with more profitable business or, under certain conditions, written off and thus save taxes. (Please note that this depends on the individual company and its business strategy. This cannot be generalized under any circumstances).

Back to the topic. What is the union demanding for the employees?

It is explicitly about

• a wage increase of 7%
• Better conditions for union members compared to non-members
• Revision of the federal collective wage agreement (this is explicitly about the integration of certain activities into the wage groups of the collective agreement)

In view of the fact that the union argues that employees' real wages have fallen back to the level of the 2010s due to inflation and that neither side is willing to compromise on this, the risk of strike action in the sector appears to be realistic for the first time since the 1970s.

But why?

• Sales in the chemical-pharmaceutical industry are weakening. There was no significant increase in turnover from 2022 to 2023.
• The profits of some companies have almost completely collapsed.
• They would not have survived these years without state aid. The reports of some German stocks show record sales due to the government price brakes on electricity and gas. The management also communicated this to investors, causing share prices to collapse accordingly.
• The sales markets are weakening. High inflation in the euro and dollar zones has left its mark. Real wages only climbed back to the 2021 level towards the end of 2023. People had to pay the difference in 2022 out of their own pockets, even though the state also subsidized the inflation compensation premium. Of course, many small and medium-sized companies in particular were not in a position to bear these employee costs.

What could happen next? (3 scenarios)

• Employers and trade unions negotiate a wage increase that is acceptable to both sides. Collective bargaining peace is maintained. Companies can calculate the economic upswing without further cost pressure. (This would also be a bullish signal for share prices in the chemical industry).
• Employers are uncompromising in their response to the union's demands. Cost pressure is increasing, which is likely to further dampen the chemical industry's business index, but the risk of strikes can be eradicated. (This would lead to further capital outflows from company stocks. However, investors can speculate on sales/integrations. The scenario is conceivable, as Covestro shows).
• The employers and trade union cannot reach an agreement. Strikes take place in the chemical industry in Germany for the first time since the 1970s. This could strengthen the employees and their influence. At the same time, however, it could give employers another reason to focus on their investments abroad. (This would be fatal for German manufacturers, their share prices and at the same time a downward impulse for a key industry in the German economy.

All in all, the German industrial landscape remains exciting and at the same time offers opportunities for investors. However, if you are invested in this sector, it is highly recommended that you follow the wage negotiations. On June 30, the current collective wage agreement for the chemical industry ends and with it the obligation to maintain peace. It remains exciting.

What do you think? Is it really conceivable that there will be strikes in a key German industry? Would politicians actively intervene and disrupt the autonomy of collective bargaining?

it was about time 🤡😅🥹

Today I wanted to present my experiences since my first own investments.

To start: I am 39 and my interest in the market began in August 23.

My professional expertise lies particularly in product development and nuclear technology.

I have 2 degrees (engineering with a focus on product development and radiation protection engineer) and 2 apprenticeships as an automotive mechatronics technician and radiation protection specialist. After 7 years of working in product development, I left this profession completely and currently work in radiation protection at various nuclear facilities and power plants worldwide.

Intended for retirement: I had previously invested, 5 years with Targobank, 3 years with DVAG/Generali through unit-linked pension insurance. With the result of -40% of the invested money plus liquidation costs of approx. -30%.

So I started to do some research. Like many others, I initially had hardly any experience in the sector and started by investing a few euros in some no-name companies. At a loss.

I read up and quickly found access to Getquin. I tried back and forth and of course listened to "Trust me, brother". With losses.

Now I've gained enough experience and found the ideal strategy for me: Diversity but not at the expense of performance.

Savings plan: €350 is increased annually.

Investment in companies: €10 each

Blackrock $BLK Banks US

Exxon Mobile $XOM (+2,11%) Oil US

RWE $RWE (-0,87%) Supply DE

Realty Income $O (+1,58%) Real Estate US

Cameco $CCO (+6,92%) Uranium CA

P+G $PG (+2,05%) Consumption US

Heidelberg Materials $HEI (-0,13%) Building Materials DE

Petrobras $PETR3 (-0,43%) Oil BR

Stellantis $STLAM (+0,22%) Automotive NL

Siemens $SIE (-0,41%) Consumer/Energy DE

Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+2,5%) Health US

Walmart $WMT (+2,04%) Retail US

Allianz $ALV (+1,84%) Insurance DE

Linde $LIN (+1,73%) Gas/Hydrogen DE

Henkel $HEN (+0,21%) Consumption DE

SAP $SAP (+0,95%) Software DE

Infineon $IFX (+0,2%) Chip manufacturer DE

Visa $V (+1,31%) Means of payment US

BASF $BAS (-1,23%) Chemistry DE

Rheinmetall $RHM (+1,35%) Automotive/armaments DE

Telecommunications $DTE (+0,38%) Telecommunications DE

ETF: 70€ each

Xtrackers Nasdaq 100 $XNAS (+0,9%)

Ishares MSCI World IT $WITS (+2,36%)

US: 56.3% DE: 29.2% NL: 3.7% BR: 3.5% KA: 3.5% JP: 1.2% Rest: 2.6%

Broker: Change from SC to Zero.

Zero display in Getquin I am currently too lazy to enter everything manually.

Strategy: Buy and Hold

I also invest between €2,000 and €6,000 2-3 times a year in addition to my savings plan.

Furthermore, I actively use Solana crypto (partially staked) and reinvest the profits in other shares or increase my holdings.

Why not Bitcoin: In my opinion, Solana has always performed better than Bitcoin to date.

Strategy: Time to market

Investment time: min. 15 years

In the medium term, I will also open a company portfolio and implement the savings plan strategy.

In the long term, it will remain at €1500 crypto. However, the ETF and share holdings will increase.

I look forward to your feedback.

Best regards

Adrian

Thoughts on $HEN (+0,21%)

Well Henkel is a stock I have a personal connection to, but maybe that's why I'm so critical...but I'll take you into my thoughts for now.

First, something positive: no one will take away their world market leader position in the industrial adhesives sector anytime soon. Long-term partnerships with globally important companies are positive. But what about the actual signature product?

Connoisseurs know that I mean Persil. But what about it? Henkel is growing (admittedly through price increases) but Henkel is growing and even more strongly than previously assumed.

But what is to come, maybe I am naive but where is the room for further innovations in detergents but also in Schwarzkopf, Fa etc.? What is to come there?

Well, you don't always need an innovation to earn money in the long term, because Persil has been around for ages, but the figures for this business sector already look significantly worse than those for the adhesives sector. The profitability of the company is (significantly) below inflation.

Maybe you don't expect it, but I still have some Henkel shares: funny with my pessimistic view on everything except adhesives. But Henkel will survive the next decades the basic business with adhesives is safe, and the dividend is safe too (-> consolidated financial statements). Therefore, an investment has long-term potential, because the company will live, the adhesive is needed and maybe my assessment of everything else is a bit too critical ;)

PS: I like to buy shares of German companies (you can tell, right?)

#boersengehandelteralltag

Hi, somewhere in the feed there was a story...

It was about which listed companies you come into contact with in everyday life.

Somehow that appealed to me, and I thought to myself, that would be something where I could actively participate....

So....

After the morning bath visit with among other things products of $UN or $PG (+2,05%) are used, comes directly already a hot drink from $NESTS.

Then I pack my service laptop of $HPQ (+3,53%) with $INTC (+2,41%) inside, as well as my tablet and cell phone $SMSD (+3,73%) and $AAPL (+0,52%) in the bag and make me on the way.

Then I realize schei.... what forgotten, and run back to the bathroom again and mount my wristwatch from $UHRN (-0,73%) and the glasses from $FIE (-0,63%)

The way to work I do relatively comfortably in a $F (+1,39%), the ride is secured by $ALV (+1,84%).

On the way I get me depending on my mood still a croissant from $ARZTY. On the about 50km long distance on the highway I meet of course all other manufacturers $BMW (-1,54%)
$VOW3 (-1,43%)
$DTG (+0,21%)
$MBG (-0,53%)
$N/A and in Switzerland drive relatively many $TSLA (+0,05%) and of course many more...

Shortly before I then in my Bude $CARL A (-1,75%) arrive, I still drive at the headquarters of $ROG (+0,88%) and $NOVN (+0,88%) headquarters...

When I arrive at the desk, I see the keyboard of $LOGN (+2,67%) ...

How should it be different na of course we work with $SAP (+0,95%).

So that I do not freeze runs in the Bude ne heating from $MTG (-0,36%)

After I have worked hard, my hands need a break and a bit of care $BEI (+0,37%).

I look then with pleasure also times in my depot which does itself at the stock market so $CBK (-1,01%).

Every now and then I have to do some research. $GOOG (-4,95%). Our IT runs of course not without $CSCO. (+0,82%)

During the break I like to have a drink with colleagues $PEP (+1,54%) with colleagues, or we serve ourselves on the 2nd floor $SCHP (+0,52%) at the inhouse vending machine of $SBUX (+2,42%).

After the coffee a visit to the toilet may not be missing, surely pipes of $GEBN (+0,34%) installed.

Professionally I call a lot, our provider $SCMN (-0,37%)

Not directly in my job, but in the gaff drive insanely many devices from $JUN3 (+1,85%) and $KGX (-2,89%) which I can observe from the break room.

In my department we also have many products from $MMM (+0,67%) in use.

In the afternoons, I test products and their flow properties from $DGE as part of my job. In the past, I also tested $BUD products, but we stopped working together.

On the way home I fill up with gas at $SHEL (+1,41%) and because life is so good, I get a little cash at $CSGN

Oh yes I forgot to mention my shoes from $ADS (-1,54%) on which I am comfortable all day on the road ...

Well, and when I'm back home, my wife has me a little luck something delicious from $GIS (+1,51%) maybe even with a sauce from $KHC (+1,26%) cooked...

With a little less luck she shows me the latest purchases made by you at$AMZN (-1,7%) :-)

Then I go to the basement and start the washing machine from $VZUG with products from $HEN (+0,21%)

To the end of the day I treat myself then if necessary still a cool $KO (+1,89%) ....

So far a little insight...

I hope you could follow me :-) Surely still forgotten many companies with which I am in daily contact...

Thanks for the comment with the $ have that still adjusted and the one or other company which I still thought of added...

Greetings Jo