$VNA (+3,25%) increased its operating profit (adjusted EBITDA) in the leasing business by 3.5% to 1.9 billion euros after nine months; organic rental growth was 3.8%. Thanks to higher contributions from the tradesmen’s organization and the growing energy business, adjusted EBITDA in the “Value-add” business segment rose by a full 31.4% to 197.2 million euros. In residential sales, however, it fell by 11.8% to 49.9 million euros. Due to higher interest rates, only 965 apartments were sold, compared to 1,553 in the same period last year. The corresponding revenue fell by 27.6% to 216.8 million euros. In addition to individual sales, Vonovia sold non-core properties for 410 million euros, minority interests for 240 million euros, and land for 20 million euros. Adjusted EBITDA across all business segments increased by 3.3% to 2.2 billion euros; however, higher financing costs led to a 3.5% decline in adjusted pre-tax profit to 1.4 billion euros. The debt-to-equity ratio also worsened, rising from 45.4% to 46.1%. Chief Financial Officer Philip Grosse announced that he will not renew his contract, which expires at the end of 2027.

October was yet another volatile month for my portfolio. Unfortunately, last week pushed my portfolio back into the red after things had actually been looking pretty good in the first half—but what can you do? In any case, I’m now just barely in the red YTD as well... 😅

Last week, in particular, really took a toll. I have no idea if we’re currently witnessing the bursting of the AI bubble, but in any case, tech stocks took a real hit. But it wasn’t just tech that was affected—precious metals took a hit too. If you believe what’s on the internet, the reason is that investors had to close out long positions to meet margin calls on AI stocks. And despite the correction in precious metals, they’re still looking good for the year so far. Whether that’s true or not, I have no idea. We’ll see how things play out in the coming weeks! 😉

Portfolio overview:

👉🏻 October:

Starting balance: 1,444,708 euros + 600 in cash

End: 1,390,997 euros + 801 in cash

Deposit: 2,750 euros

Loss: -56,260 euros (-3.89%)

While the loss is largely attributable to precious metals, I was at least able to achieve some small successes on other fronts. I closed out my positions in $PEP (-0,47%) (Pepsi), $MCD (-0,13%) (McDonald’s), and $ELLRY (+1,16%) (ElringKlinger) with a profit of about 10% each. I’d say that’s not bad for just a few weeks. I also sold and then repurchased my Grenke shares ($GLJ (+1,06%) ) and bought them back. This allowed me to realize a loss of around 22,000 euros and get a small tax refund. Otherwise, I increased my position in Vonovia ($VNA (+3,25%) ) slightly.

My portfolio restructuring toward a more stable, conservative portfolio is also making progress. While I still had 9,200 euros in an All-World fund last month, that amount has now grown to 17,000 euros. For November, I expect to break the 20,000-euro mark. November is bonus month, and at the same time, a few employee stock awards will be granted. I plan to invest both amounts entirely into my ETF positions.

Current progress toward goals:

👉🏻 Money market account -> 50,000 euros: 750 euros

👉🏻 All-World / All-Cap ETF -> 1,000,000 euros: 17,142 euros

So much for October! I estimate that November’s performance will depend heavily on how the situation surrounding AI stocks unfolds and whether Trump decides to attack Iran following Tuesday’s midterms. There are plenty of signs pointing in that direction. One thing is certain… it’s going to stay turbulent! So buckle up!! 😉

➡️🆓: On my way toward 4 million in total assets, I’m now 44.0% of the way to my goal.

Here’s to successful stock market trades! 😊

$INS (+0%)

The residential developer Instone Real Estate Group no longer expects to meet its targets for the fiscal year. The company explained that the assumption made when the forecast was issued—that the conflict in the Middle East would have only a short-term impact on business operations—has not been borne out. Rising interest rates and uncertainty are dampening buyer demand and slowing decision-making processes, causing institutional transactions to be postponed until 2027. The Executive Board now expects sales of 500 to 600 million euros (instead of 650 to 750 million euros), adjusted revenue of 450 million euros (instead of 550 to 600 million euros), and adjusted after-tax profit of 25 to 30 million euros (instead of 35 to 40 million euros). The gross profit margin, however, is expected to improve from 24% to over 28%. In the first nine months, revenue (288 million euros) and profit after taxes (12.2 million euros) were below the prior-year figures (347.5 million euros and 21.4 million euros, respectively). Excluding institutional transactions, sales totaled 173.3 million euros (previous year: 229.0 million euros).

I’ll just keep posting updates like this until people here in the forum realize that even the residential sector won’t be a sure thing in the coming months, even if the record dividend is tempting.

$VNA (+3,25%)
$TEG (+2,38%)
$AT1 (+4,77%)
$LEG (+2,61%)

Today I made a small adjustment to my portfolio by $VNA (+3,25%) . I had to take advantage of the price drop in response to the earnings forecast revision.

However, since I’m currently short on available capital, I had to sell a portion of my McDonald’s holdings. I bought my most recent positions at around 208 euros, so I made just under 10% in a few weeks! That’s not too bad... 😊

$VNA (+3,25%) is lowering its profit forecasts due to higher financing costs, slower apartment sales, and lower rent increases. For 2026, the Executive Board anticipates rent growth of 3.8% instead of 4% and adjusted pre-tax earnings at the lower end of the forecast range of 1.9 to 2.0 billion euros. For the coming year, the company does not expect an increase in earnings but rather a level holding steady. The reasons for this include lower investment volumes (particularly in the “development-to-hold” segment), a slightly smaller increase in rent indices, and caution among homebuyers due to higher interest rates. At the same time, the higher interest rates are having a negative impact on the company’s financial results. “Our response to this is stricter return requirements for our investments, a strategic review of our development business, and a clear focus on securing liquidity and continuing to strengthen our balance sheet,” says CEO Luka Mucic. New “Manage-to-Green” investments are being put on hold, and “Development-to-Hold” projects are being scaled back. In light of rising interest rates, Vonovia also expects that the recovery in property values within the company’s portfolio has come to an end for now. The target LTV of 40% remains unchanged, though the company believes it will be difficult to achieve this by 2028 as previously planned.

None of this comes as a surprise, but it may be of interest to $VNA (+3,25%) shareholders in this community.

$VNA (+3,25%) - I came across the following article today. It argues that it would be much more efficient and smarter to have the federal government buy Vonovia rather than trying to expropriate Berlin’s housing stock. I found it a worthwhile read, and it gives me some satisfaction to know that there are still people out there who can think rationally every now and then.

Economist: Federal Government Should Buy Vonovia: “I Doubt That Expropriation Would Be Cheaper in the End” – n-tv.de https://share.google/Fgg6zm6b0KFvLD08M

For the record: No, I don’t have any investments in Vonovia.

My opinion: Of course, it would be much easier and much better to buy Vonovia than to push through the nonsensical attempt at expropriation in Berlin. You’d get more apartments (including outside Berlin) at a relatively lower price. You also wouldn’t be undermining the foundation of the rule of law. And you’d be buying a company that’s already functioning well and would be able to act immediately (I find it highly questionable whether the Berlin administration—known for its efficiency—is even capable of quickly establishing the structure needed to manage a massive rental housing portfolio. We don’t even need to talk about new construction being handled by the administrative apparatus).

Of course, the federal government’s purchase of Vonovia would be a real shock to shareholders—first I’d drive down the stock price by publicly suggesting expropriation, then I’d buy the company at a bargain price. It’s like a short-seller’s strategy 😉.

$AT1 (+4,77%)
-Subsidiary Grand City joins $LEG (+2,61%)
...

Grand City Properties has acquired a block of shares in the residential real estate group LEG Immobilien from financial investors, thereby becoming the largest single shareholder with a 20.4% stake. Grand City states that it could increase this stake to 29.9% or, if market conditions are right, sell it again. Like those of other housing companies, LEG’s stock has been trading at a low since the recent rise in interest rates. Based on yesterday’s closing price, the newly acquired stake has a market value of just under 700 million euros, while the pro-rata book value of LEG’s real estate portfolio stands at 1.8 billion euros. Grand City apparently sought to take advantage of the price discount. In addition, Grand City owns many apartments in LEG’s home market of North Rhine-Westphalia. Grand City, in turn, is majority-owned by Aroundtown. With this investment in LEG, the residential business—accounting for 42%—will become Aroundtown’s largest division. LEG Immobilien reacted neutrally to the transaction.

Things are slowly getting underway. I’m also starting to get a little excited about residential real estate stocks, but I think holding off for a few more months will lead to lower equity prices. However, some of the NAV discounts are already really tempting, even when you factor in that they’ll likely have to depreciate significantly again. Also $VNA (+3,25%) , $TEG (+2,38%) , $GYC (+4,66%)

Which stock do you find most attractive for getting started? Right now, I’m leaning most toward $TEG (+2,38%) and $LEG (+2,61%)

@investron Is this something for your dividend portfolio?

Subscribe to the podcast so that Die Linke always fails.

00:00:00 Market Overview

00:15:30 Deutsche Telekom

00:34:55 Vonovia

01:04:44 Agentic AI

01:20:30 Meta

01:23:50 AMD

01:37:50 indie Semiconductor

01:55:10 Bitcoin Holding Period

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/29CHKuCEn6PQS6WdGpuE3l?si=hR3dzN8fQQCv-W0ZAGCGCQ

YouTube

https://openyoutu.be/HoDUwFtCnMI

Apple Podcasts

https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/168-vonovia-meta-amd-bitcoin-dt-telekom-indie-semi/id1695869891?i=1000796110245

$VNA (+3,25%)
$DTE (+1,42%)
$META (+0,97%)
$AMD (-1,77%)
$BTC (+0,19%)
$INDI (+2,57%)

Subscribe to the podcast so that Die Linke always fails.

00:00:00 Market Overview

00:15:30 Deutsche Telekom

00:34:55 Vonovia

01:04:44 Agentic AI

01:20:30 Meta

01:23:50 AMD

01:37:50 indie Semiconductor

01:55:10 Bitcoin Holding Period

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/29CHKuCEn6PQS6WdGpuE3l?si=hR3dzN8fQQCv-W0ZAGCGCQ

YouTube

https://openyoutu.be/HoDUwFtCnMI

Apple Podcasts

https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/168-vonovia-meta-amd-bitcoin-dt-telekom-indie-semi/id1695869891?i=1000796110245

$AMD (-1,77%)
$META (+0,97%)
$BTC (+0,19%)
$DTE (+1,42%)
$VNA (+3,25%)
$INDI (+2,57%)

There are a lot of people here who believe in $VNA (+3,25%)
$LEG (+2,61%) or $AT1 (+4,77%) and similar stocks and currently find the price and dividend attractive. For all of them, here’s a news article that sums up my opinion on this very well and explains why I don’t (yet) see any good entry prices:

The wave of upcoming refinancing in the real estate market is reaching its peak: About a quarter of the financing on the books of local real estate lenders is due in the next two years. This is according to the latest banking survey by EY-Parthenon of 90 real estate-financing banks in Germany. Just under a third of the institutions report a non-performing loan ratio of between 4% and 6%. For a quarter of the surveyed lenders, the ratio is even higher. Nearly half of the lenders have seen this ratio worsen. According to the European Banking Authority, 6.8% of commercial real estate loans were nonperforming in the first quarter, corresponding to a volume of approximately 18 billion euros. More than 40% of financial institutions told EY that, in individual cases, they had been unable to find a viable financing solution. The proportion of respondents expecting real estate prices to rise has plummeted from 30% to 2% within half a year. In both the private and institutional residential segments, one in ten expects prices to fall.