My portfolio was up 10% just about a week ago, and now it’s down like 2% mainly due to $NOVO B (+0,62%) my second largest holding 😂

Hi people!

This is my first post, and while I’ve been around for a little bit I haven’t engaged much yet, which I’d like to change. Seeing the huge selloff at market close I wanted to look into $NOVO B (+0,62%) to see if the selloff is justified (TDLR: I see potential, but understand the selling pressure faced by guidance for 2026) or an overreaction. This post is based on the announcements published today and my opinion mostly which I try to build with news and data I’ve seen on Novo. Without further ado let’s dive in. (Reading time: ~8 min)

• Operating profit decreased by 1% in Danish kroner and increased by 6% at constant exchange rates (CER) to DKK 127.7 billion. Had Novo Nordisk not incurred costs related to the company-wide transformation of around DKK 8 billion, operating profit would have increased by 6% in Danish kroner and 13% at CER.
• Sales in US Operations increased by 3% in Danish kroner (8% at CER) and were positively impacted by gross-to-net sales adjustments. Sales in International Operations increased by 10% in Danish kroner (14% at CER). Sales within Obesity and Diabetes care increased by 7% in Danish kroner to DKK 289.5 billion (10% at CER), mainly driven by Obesity care growth of 26% in Danish kroner (31% at CER) and GLP-1 diabetes sales growing 2% in Danish kroner (6% at CER). Rare disease sales increased by 5% in Danish kroner (9% at CER).

Unexpected, but good to see that the profit margins fall on the higher side of their reduced guidances throughout 2025. I feel like everyone expected 2025 earnings to be terrible seeing the year the’ve had. Nonetheless, these growth numbers and margins are likely very thin compared to Eli Lily. However, markets are cautious as the stock has seen a drawdown today during NSYE opening hours, but all eyes on their earnings tomorrow.

• On 22 December, the US FDA approved the first oral GLP-1 in obesity, once-daily oral semaglutide 25 mg, under the brand name of Wegovy® pill. Wegovy® pill was launched on 5 January 2026, and as of 23 January, total weekly prescriptions amounted to around 50,000. Prescription uptake is mainly driven by the 1.5 mg starter dose in the self-pay channel.

This has been the news driving the surge of the last month, unfortunately Mr Market has taken these gains away just in the last week. To me personally, seeing 50,000 prescriptions filled over the first 3 weeks is unprecedented for GLP-1’s - Lilly’s Zepbound filled ~25,000-28,000 in their first month and Mounjaro ~11,000-12,000 [1]. Hence, the oral Wegovy has seen more prescriptions (+20%) than both Lilly’s products combined. Demand has been surging, that cannot be underestimated. Novo’s distributing channels and advertisements in America have been a large change from what they’ve done before, with collaborations with Telehealth branches such as Ro and Amazon Pharmacy. In my opinion, the distribution of oral Wegovy and the 7.2 mg dose (once approved) will be much more effective and high-throughput as accessibility has increased significantly through the internet. In my opinion, Q1 and Q2 should be great for the sales of the oral pills, or at least until Lilly will bring their oral medication to market.

[1] Numbers estimated by Gemini from: IQVIA "Obesity Deep Dive" (Sept 2025), SingleCare Research, Truveta Research
and
IQVIA.

• Key R&D developments in the quarter include the phase 2 trial with zenagamtide (previously amycretin) showing significant weight loss and HbA1c reduction in type 2 diabetes, and the phase 3 trial REIMAGINE 2 with CagriSema, also in diabetes, was successfully completed. Within obesity, Novo Nordisk has submitted semaglutide 7.2 mg and the next-generation asset CagriSema to the US FDA.

I haven’t gone into these clinical trials in detail yet, but will edit this post once I do. I’m a student with a background in pharmaceutical sciences and bioinformatics, and going deep into this domain I’d find interesting. If successfully approved, it could lead to an additional revenue stream.

• Adjusted sales growth for 2026, which excludes revenue from the reversal of 340B provisions, is expected to be -5 to -13% at CER. Adjusted sales growth reported in Danish kroner is expected to be 3 percentage points lower than at CER. The sales outlook is impacted by lower realised prices, including impacts related to the "Most Favoured Nations" agreement in the US and the patent expiry of the semaglutide molecule in certain IO markets, as well as competition. The global GLP-1 market is expected to continue to expand with Novo Nordisk introducing new treatments, such as Wegovy® pill and higher doses of Wegovy®, enabling Novo Nordisk to continue to increase patient reach and expand volumes. Adjusted operating profit growth is expected to be -5 to -13% at CER. Adjusted operating profit growth reported in Danish kroner is expected to be 5 percentage points lower than at CER. Sales and operating profit for 2026 will be positively impacted by a reversal of sales rebate provisions of USD 4.2 billion related to the 340B Drug Pricing Program in the US.

The big-hitter that has been the leading cause of today’s aftermarket drop. I have talked to a friend about this point, and we were both very surprised to see guidance in the negatives for 2026. Sure, the $150 dollar limit on GLP-1’s would impact earnings anyway, but that goes for Lilly’s oral GLP-1 (when released on the market) as well, while their PE (48,95 as of writing) is more that double Novo’s. I’m aware Lily has a better diversified portfolio than Novo, however largest part of Lilly’s earnings is driven by the injectable GLP-1s. Furthermore, this $150 pricing would make GLP-1’s more affordable for a broader market, potentially offsetting the loss generated by the reduced prices (I’m aware sales would need to increase almost 9-fold, but seeing the demand in the first three weeks, I wouldn’t think it entirely delusional to assume large volume of prescriptions filled). Additionally, GPL-1’s are eligible for Medicare coverage in 2026 allowing even more volume to flow in. One caveat is the minimised spending on Medicare by the Trump administration (0,09% I thought correct me if I’m wrong), which could keep demand static. Of course Novo’s expiring patents in 2028 (e.g. India for sema.) will result in more “clones” to compete with the Wegovy pill. However, APAC made up 2,63% of total revenue in Q4 2025 - quite negligible in the larger picture. In their larger market such as America the patent stands till 2031, definitely securing some revenues in an expanding market - for example due to the first movers advantage. From what I’ve seen Novo has been super conservative in their estimations and I believe they will be able to expand their reach into Emerging markets (Africa/South- America) with a recent deal in Brazil and increasing number of people suffering with obesity/diabetes. Lastly, more use cases are being found for GLP-1’s, for Novo’s injectable, Kayshild, getting the green light for liver treatment by the EMA.

• At the Annual General Meeting on 26 March 2026, the Board of Directors will propose a final dividend of DKK 7.95 per share for 2025, taking the expected total dividend for 2025 to 11.70. The Board of Directors has decided to initiate a new share repurchase programme of up to DKK 15 billion.

For me at this price the dividend is great, almost 3,65%. Furthermore, at current valuation the outstanding 4,4435B shares would be reduced by 47,25M shares to around 4.39B shares. Overall, it’s not much but in combination with the dividend I see potential for a positive performance for Q1 and Q2 . I won't be selling and perhaps buying this dip a bit after mr “headwinds” has spoken and Lilly’s earnings are released. Possibly I’m biased due to me seeing potential already back in November when it was bottoming out, but I am positive for now.

That’s my view, I’d love to hear your thoughts as well. — I’ll look into the clinical trial data soon.

If you have any tips for analysing Novo/stocks in another light or better way please let me know!

Cheers,

sr2.0