Merck
$MRK (-0,63%) has significantly scaled back the targets for its Pharmaceuticals division after two failed drug candidates.

Despite a decline in profits in 2023, the company is aiming to benefit from the current boom phase in the AI and semiconductor semiconductor industry with annual sales growth in the electronics division of five to nine percent.

In the pharmaceutical business however, only a slight increase in turnover is expected. The forecasts for the laboratory business have also been revised downwards due to disappointed expectations in China.

CEO Belen Garijo confirmed the optimistic forecast for the current year, supported by successes in the area of cancer drugs. -Handelsblatt

Photo: Merck KGaA

Quarterly figures for EU companies on 01.08.2024

Hugo Boss +++ DHL +++ Symrise +++ BMW +++ Volkswagen +++ and many more

Heidelberger Druck $HDD (-0,43%) achieves sales of €403 million (previous year: €544 million), EBITDA (adjusted) of -€9 million (previous year: +€41 million) and a net result of -€42 million (previous year: +€10 million) in the 1st quarter. Forecast confirmed.

HUGO BOSS $BOSS (+1,75%) achieved sales of €1.015 billion in the second quarter (previous year: €1.026 billion, preliminary figures from July 15: €1.015 billion), EBIT (final) of €70 million (previous year: €121 million, preliminary: €70 million) and net profit of €37 million (previous year: €75 million).

Symrise $SY1 (-0,1%) achieved sales of €2.57 billion in the first half of the year (previous year: €2.41 billion, analyst forecast: €2.56 billion), EBITDA of €529.8 million (previous year: €446 million, forecast: €526.1 million) and net income of €239.5 million (previous year: €187.5 million, forecast: €251.2 million). Outlook for 2024 confirmed.

BMW $BMW (+0,45%) achieves Q2 revenues of €36.9 billion (previous year: €37.2 billion, analyst forecast: €37.4 billion), EBIT (Group) of €3.88 billion (previous year: €4.34 billion, forecast: €3.95 billion) and Group net profit of €2.71 billion (previous year: €2.96 billion, forecast: €2.62 billion). Outlook for 2024 confirmed.

Volkswagen (VW) $VOW (+0,36%) achieved sales of €83.3 billion in the second quarter (previous year: €80.1 billion, forecast: €81.9 billion), an operating profit of €5.46 billion (previous year: €5.60 billion, forecast: €5.38 billion) and earnings after tax of €3.63 billion (previous year: €3.79 billion). In the outlook for 2024, VW confirms the forecast for sales and deliveries.

Klöckner & Co $KCO (-1,17%) achieved sales of 2.3 million tons in the first half of the year (previous year: 2.1 million tons), EBITDA before material special effects of €83 million (previous year: €130 million) and net income from continuing operations of -€26 million (previous year: €39 million). In the outlook for 2024, the company expects a slight decline in sales compared to the previous year and EBITDA before material special effects of €120 million to €180 million.

DHL $DHL (+0,09%) achieved revenue of €20.6 billion in the second quarter (previous year: €20.1 billion, analyst forecast: €20.3 billion), EBIT of €1.4 billion (previous year: €1.7 billion, forecast: €1.3 billion) and net profit of €744 million (previous year: €978 million, forecast: €754 million). Outlook for 2024 and EBIT forecast for 2026 confirmed.

Merck KGaA $MRK (-0,63%) achieves final Q2 sales of €5.35 billion (preliminary: €5.35 billion), final adjusted EBITDA of €1.509 billion (preliminary: €1.509 billion) and final adjusted earnings per share of €2.20 (preliminary: €2.20). Outlook confirmed.

MTU Aero Engines
$MTX (-0,23%) achieves Q2 revenues (adjusted) of €1.755 billion (previous year: €1.57 billion), EBIT (adjusted) of €193 million (previous year: €242 million, analyst forecast: €223 million) and net profit of €185 million (previous year: €143 million, forecast: €163 million). Margin forecast for 2024 raised to around 13% (previously: more than 12%) Outlook for sales, adjusted EBIT margin and FCF confirmed.

Daimler Truck
$DTG (-0,47%) achieved order intake of 92,569 vehicles in Q2 (previous year: -5%), revenue of €13.3 billion (previous year: €13.88 billion), EBIT (adjusted) of €1.17 billion (previous year: €1.43 billion) and earnings per share of €0.93 (previous year: €1.11).

+++ Earnings summary this morning, 01.08. +++

Volkswagen (VW) $VOW (+0,36%) achieves sales of €83.3 billion (previous year: €80.1 billion, forecast: €81.9 billion), an operating profit of €5.46 billion (previous year: €5.60 billion, forecast: €5.38 billion) and earnings after tax of €3.63 billion (previous year: €3.79 billion) in Q2. In the outlook for 2024, VW confirms the forecast for sales and deliveries.

-

BMW $BMW (+0,45%) achieves sales of €36.9 billion in the 2nd quarter (previous year: €37.2 billion, analyst forecast: €37.4 billion), EBIT (Group) of €3.88 billion (previous year: €4.34 billion, forecast: €3.95 billion) and Group net profit of €2.71 billion (previous year: €2.96 billion, forecast: €2.62 billion). Outlook for 2024 confirmed.

-

DHL $DHL (+0,09%) generates Q2 revenue of €20.6 billion (previous year: €20.1 billion, analyst forecast: €20.3 billion), EBIT of €1.4 billion (previous year: €1.7 billion, forecast: €1.3 billion) and net profit of €744 million (previous year: €978 million, forecast: €754 million). Outlook for 2024 and EBIT forecast for 2026 confirmed.

-

Vonovia $VNA (+0,02%) achieves average rent per square meter of €1. In the first half of 2024, Vonovia generated an average rent per square meter of € 7.86 (previous year: € 7.58); EBITDA (adjusted) from rental activities of € 1.19 billion (previous year: € 1.21 billion), EBT (adjusted) from continuing operations of € 887.2 million (previous year: € 945.8 million); EBITDA (adjusted) from continuing operations of € 1.27 billion (previous year: € 1.30 billion) and net income for the period of € 1.27 billion (previous year: € 1.30 billion): €945.8 million); EBITDA (adjusted) from continuing operations of €1.27 billion (previous year: €1.30 billion) and a net loss for the period of -€529.2 million (previous year: -€4.13 billion). The vacancy rate in the first half of the year was 2.2% (previous year: 2.2%) and the real estate portfolio value (as at the end of June) was €82.5 billion (previous year: €83.9 billion at the end of 2023). In the outlook for 2024, the company now sees adjusted EBITDA at the upper end of the range of €2.55 billion to €2.65 billion and adjusted EBT at the upper end of the range of €1.7 billion to €1.8 billion

-

Elmos Semiconductor $ELG (-1,81%) achieved sales of €142 million (previous year: €136 million), EBIT of €35.9 million (previous year: €34.1 million) and net profit of €24.3 million (previous year: €23.0 million) in the second quarter. Outlook for 2024 confirmed.

-

Symrise $SY1 (-0,1%) achieved sales of €2.57 billion in the first half of the year (previous year: €2.41 billion, analyst forecast: €2.56 billion), EBITDA of €529.8 million (previous year: €446 million, forecast: €526.1 million) and net income of €239.5 million (previous year: €187.5 million, forecast: €251.2 million). Outlook for 2024 confirmed.

-

HUGO BOSS $BOSS (+1,75%) achieves sales of €1.015 billion in the second quarter (previous year: €1.026 billion, preliminary figures from July 15: €1.015 billion), EBIT (final) of €70 million (previous year: €121 million, preliminary: €70 million) and net profit of €37 million (previous year: €75 million).

-

Heidelberger Druck $HDDB achieved sales of €403 million (previous year: €544 million), EBITDA (adjusted) of -€9 million (previous year: +€41 million) and a net result of -€42 million (previous year: +€10 million) in the first quarter. Forecast confirmed.

-

Klöckner & Co $KCOB achieved sales of 2.3 million tons in the first half of the year (previous year: 2.1 million tons), EBITDA before material special effects of €83 million (previous year: €130 million) and a consolidated result from continuing operations of -€26 million (previous year: €39 million). In the outlook for 2024, the company expects a slight decline in sales compared to the previous year and EBITDA before material special effects of €120 million to €180 million.

-

Merck KGaA $MRK (-0,63%) achieves final Q2 sales of €5.35 billion (preliminary: €5.35 billion), final adjusted EBITDA of €1.509 billion (preliminary: €1.509 billion) and final adjusted earnings per share of €2.20 (preliminary: €2.20). Outlook confirmed.

-

MTU Aero Engines $MTX (-0,23%) achieves Q2 revenues (adjusted) of €1.755 billion (previous year: €1.57 billion), EBIT (adjusted) of €193 million (previous year: €242 million, analyst forecast: €223 million) and net profit of €185 million (previous year: €143 million, forecast: €163 million). Margin forecast for 2024 raised to around 13% (previously: more than 12%) Outlook for sales, adjusted EBIT margin and FCF confirmed.

-

Daimler Truck $DTG (-0,47%) achieved order intake of 92,569 vehicles in the 2nd quarter (previous year: -5%), revenue of €13.3 billion (previous year: €13.88 billion), EBIT (adjusted) of €1.17 billion (previous year: €1.43 billion) and earnings per share of €0.93 (previous year: €1.11).

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/uWLmaUmA94I?si=Nvgan1ND1bTBDfNJ

Sunday:

Joe Biden resigns and names Kamala Harris as possible successor. Trump has already made a statement. We are curious to see what the markets will do tomorrow. The election campaign in the US seems to be starting all over again.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/us-wahlen-joe-biden-verzichtet-auf-kandidatur-und-schlaegt-kamala-harris-vor/100054462.html

Monday:

The battery manufacturer $VAR1 (+0%) Varta is restructuring at the expense of its shareholders. In addition, Porsche and Michael Tojner secure pre-emptive rights for the issue of new shares. As a result of the StaRUG proceedings, small shareholders at Varta in particular are left empty-handed.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kommentare/varta-gau-fuer-kleinaktionaere/100054586.html

Tuesday:

$P911 (+0,07%) Porsche corrects its forecast. Turnover is expected to be lower than planned and the margin is also likely to fall. This is probably due to flooding at a European supplier.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autohersteller-warum-porsche-jetzt-die-jahresziele-fuer-2024-kassieren-muss/100054794.html

Also $ST5 (-0,66%) Steico also fell significantly. Although turnover and profit increased, the share price fell. The reason is a cautious outlook.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/18294888-steico-se-starkes-erstes-halbjahr-2024-vorsichtiger-ausblick

Wednesday:

Profit at $TSLA (-2,56%) Tesla falls for the second quarter in a row, Tesla has clearly missed expectations with its figures. Car sales fell by seven percent to 19.9 billion USD. Total sales increased slightly thanks to the strong storage business.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/elektroautobauer-tesla-gewinn-sinkt-erneut-robotaxi-soll-im-oktober-vorgestellt-werden/100053233.html

$RHM (-0,31%) Rheinmetall doubled its profit and was even able to exceed expectations. The armaments group is benefiting from numerous orders from the German armed forces. Sales increased by 49% to 2.2 billion euros in the second quarter. Profit doubled to 271 million euros. Rheinmetall is undoubtedly one of the winners of the Ukraine war.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/ruestung-rheinmetall-verdoppelt-gewinn-im-zweiten-quartal/100055103.html

The Purchasing Managers' Index for Germany 🇩🇪 and the USA are disappointing. The value for Germany fell below 50, and the same applies to industry in the USA. The index thus signals a recession. In the USA, at least the service sector remains above the 50 mark.

https://finanzmarktwelt.de/einkaufsmangerindex-juli-316954/?amp

Thursday:

Yesterday, the building materials group $STO3 (-0,28%) Sto reported disappointing figures. Earnings will probably be halved and the targets for 2024 and 2027 have been canceled.

There was also weak news from the automotive industry. $7201 (-8,96%) Nissan's profit collapses by 99%. Opel parent company Stellantnis reports a 40% drop in profits.

Things are also going badly in the luxury goods industry. Gucci's sales shrank by 19%, putting pressure on the profits of its parent company $KER (-0,23%) Kering.

Even consumer goods giant $NESN (-0,11%) Nestlé disappointed with a lowered forecast. Turnover fell by 2.7%, partly due to currency effects.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-nissan-gewinn-faellt-um-99-prozent-astrazeneca-erhoeht-jahresziele/24098412.html

Even in Poland 🇵🇱, which is otherwise economically spoiled, the supermarket chain $DNP (+0,29%) Dino Polska has to report poor figures. Among other things, profits fell by 28% compared to the previous year.

https://www.stockwatch.pl/wiadomosci/slabe-wyniki-biedronki-pociagnely-w-dol-notowania-dino-polska,akcje,329836

The situation was different in the pharmaceutical sector. $SAN (+0,31%) Sanofi exceeded analysts' expectations in terms of profit and was able to increase its turnover by 8 %. Also $AZN (-0,14%) Astrazeneca also raised its annual targets. Sales increased by 15 %. However, profits fell slightly due to exchange rate effects.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-nissan-gewinn-faellt-um-99-prozent-astrazeneca-erhoeht-jahresziele/24098412.html

Good economic data from the USA 🇺🇸. GDP growth in the second quarter was probably significantly stronger than expected (2.8 % annualized, expected: 2.0 %). In addition, inflation is unlikely to exceed expectations.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-us-wirtschaft-waechst-im-zweiten-quartal-staerker-als-erwartet/100055373.html

Friday:

$MBG (+0,07%) Mercedes is able to slightly improve its return on sales again. In addition, there was no profit warning, which many had expected.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autoindustrie-mercedes-verliert-an-fahrt-absatz-der-s-klasse-stuerzt-ab/100054892.html

BASF $BAS (-0,27%) BASF does not have to lower its forecast, but continues to struggle with rather weak figures. Sales fell by 7%, while adjusted profits of 2 billion euros in the second quarter were roughly at the previous year's level.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/chemiekonzern-basf-macht-weniger-umsatz-als-im-vorjahr-bestaetigt-aber-den-ausblick/100054625.html

Inflation in Japan 🇯🇵 was above expectations. Real interest rate hikes may still have to be made there after all. However, even the price increases for core consumer prices in the capital Tokyo are barely above the BoJ's 2% target.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-inflation-tokyo-consumer-price-index-rises-22-yoy-in-july-vs-23-prior-202407252333

The German pharmaceutical group $MRK (-0,63%) Merck also delivered strong figures and raised its forecast slightly. Instead of sales of 20.6 - 22.1 billion euros, the range was raised to 20.7 - 22.1 billion euros. Sales stagnated in the second quarter. The reason for the forecast increase is good figures for the cancer drug Xevinapant.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/pharma-und-techkonzern-merck-hebt-prognose-fuer-2024-leicht-an/100055694.html

Most important dates in the coming week:

Tuesday: 14:00 Inflation data (Germany)

Wednesday: 05:00 Interest rate decision (BoJ)

Thursday: 13:00 Interest rate decision (BoE)

A tale from our youth 👨🏻‍🔧🏭

Since I had some time today and took the opportunity to stow away my relics of days gone by, I found the mementos of when I started my career. Both the badge and the IGBCE membership card.

For those who are not familiar with it: The Industriegewerkschaft - Bergbau, Chemie, Energie is the second largest industrial union in Germany after IG Metall. It represents the interests of the 580,000 members in the mining, chemical and energy sectors in Germany.

Some readers may be interested to know what impact the current wage negotiations in the chemical industry may have on German shares in this sector.

The chemical industry currently employs around 585,000 people. Of these, around 464,000 are considered "employees".

The largest employer in the industry in Germany is BASF $BAS (-0,27%) with just under 51,000 employees. It is followed by Merck $MRK (-0,63%) (approx. 28,000) and Bayer $BAYN (+0,23%) (approx. 22,000), but also Henkel $HEN (+0,03%) Lanxess $LXS (+0,15%) and Covestro $1COV (+0%) are also major listed employers in the industry in Germany.

What can be recognized?

Across the industry, all companies have been deeply affected by past price shocks and the resulting economic weakness. This can be clearly seen in the share prices due to the price jumps in electricity and gas. Although the prices for electricity and gas have fallen back to an acceptable level, the order situation is rather miserable. The 3rd quarter of 2024 promises an improvement.

But could an economic upturn also boost profits again?

In the industry, long-term supply contracts are concluded. Supply contracts with reliable partners are rarely terminated. Instead, higher prices are passed on to the end customer. In many places, however, customers are no longer prepared to dig deeper into their pockets, which is why it is expensive to retain customers or acquire new ones. And if they do? Then new customers are lured in by low-cost offers, even though producers have to pay extra for years. The important thing here is that the production plant costs remain lower than the loss due to new contracts. Depending on the size of an idle production plant, the costs per hour can be in the four to five-digit euro range. So: the main thing is to produce, regardless of whether you have to pay hundreds of euros for months for a supply contract. The losses can be offset in the balance sheet with more profitable business or, under certain conditions, written off and thus save taxes. (Please note that this depends on the individual company and its business strategy. This cannot be generalized under any circumstances).

Back to the topic. What is the union demanding for the employees?

It is explicitly about

• a wage increase of 7%
• Better conditions for union members compared to non-members
• Revision of the federal collective wage agreement (this is explicitly about the integration of certain activities into the wage groups of the collective agreement)

In view of the fact that the union argues that employees' real wages have fallen back to the level of the 2010s due to inflation and that neither side is willing to compromise on this, the risk of strike action in the sector appears to be realistic for the first time since the 1970s.

But why?

• Sales in the chemical-pharmaceutical industry are weakening. There was no significant increase in turnover from 2022 to 2023.
• The profits of some companies have almost completely collapsed.
• They would not have survived these years without state aid. The reports of some German stocks show record sales due to the government price brakes on electricity and gas. The management also communicated this to investors, causing share prices to collapse accordingly.
• The sales markets are weakening. High inflation in the euro and dollar zones has left its mark. Real wages only climbed back to the 2021 level towards the end of 2023. People had to pay the difference in 2022 out of their own pockets, even though the state also subsidized the inflation compensation premium. Of course, many small and medium-sized companies in particular were not in a position to bear these employee costs.

What could happen next? (3 scenarios)

• Employers and trade unions negotiate a wage increase that is acceptable to both sides. Collective bargaining peace is maintained. Companies can calculate the economic upswing without further cost pressure. (This would also be a bullish signal for share prices in the chemical industry).
• Employers are uncompromising in their response to the union's demands. Cost pressure is increasing, which is likely to further dampen the chemical industry's business index, but the risk of strikes can be eradicated. (This would lead to further capital outflows from company stocks. However, investors can speculate on sales/integrations. The scenario is conceivable, as Covestro shows).
• The employers and trade union cannot reach an agreement. Strikes take place in the chemical industry in Germany for the first time since the 1970s. This could strengthen the employees and their influence. At the same time, however, it could give employers another reason to focus on their investments abroad. (This would be fatal for German manufacturers, their share prices and at the same time a downward impulse for a key industry in the German economy.

All in all, the German industrial landscape remains exciting and at the same time offers opportunities for investors. However, if you are invested in this sector, it is highly recommended that you follow the wage negotiations. On June 30, the current collective wage agreement for the chemical industry ends and with it the obligation to maintain peace. It remains exciting.

What do you think? Is it really conceivable that there will be strikes in a key German industry? Would politicians actively intervene and disrupt the autonomy of collective bargaining?

The challenge: Name the three best German stocks you would buy right now.

The difficulty: You have to choose at least 1 DAX stock and 1 MDAX stock.

I'll start. Probably an unpopular opinion, but as a DAX stock I would actually pick the German Merck $MRK (-0,63%) as a DAX stock. I like pharma and see this as a very solid stock at a good price. As an MDAX stock, I would pick Carl Zeiss Meditec $AFX (-1,42%) as this is an important topic for the future. I would fill the third place with Nemetschek $NEM (-0,98%) to include one of the few German technology stocks. How does it look for you?

+++ Signs of life +++

(from the series: Investment Diary & Thoughts)

Knee surgery survived last week. 🩼

Whether good, is the other question... 😣 In the meantime got postoperative fever, knee still swollen, probably needs to be punctured again... and otherwise so?

I lie around the whole day, meow at my wife from time to time (which I feel sorry for again seconds later, because she certainly can't help it...) and then I think to myself:

Look again in your depot. But no, I don't feel like it. Health and all that. That comes first.

Now I fell so when planking on the sofa suddenly my own trains of thought to the topic invest. And the decision is made after 2 days:

I will make my investing even simpler and less complex.

What follows:

Nearly all BigBlueChips are sorted out and shifted into the MSCI World & MSCI EM. After all, they are represented there anyway, so why bother with them?

What remains for the pension is the MSCI World ($IWDA (-1,1%) ) , MSCI EM ($EIMI (-0,6%))and EUWAX GOLD II ($EWG2 (-1,01%) ).

In addition, I focus on 5 (max. 7) individual stocks. According to the current status these include $ST5 (-0,66%) (Steico SE), $NIBE B (+0,63%) (NIBE "is love"); $YSN (-1,02%) (Secunet); $UKW (-0,32%) (Greencoat for ever - or what better comes); $COLO B (+0,19%) (Coloplast) and $MRK (-0,63%) (Merck KGaA).

Over the years, I have become less and less interested in more.

Investing remains important. But please make it as boring as possible.

The last weeks alone (preparation for surgery and now the aftercare) have shown me that I am not ready for this and especially not able to keep track of 15-20 values. Thus, the focus on investing as simple as possible and still preserve individual value opportunities for me has become more attractive again.

Maybe this will actually create opportunities for the activated trading of 1-2 values from the basic framework... if not, also not so wild. And yet I will be able to focus even better on these values.

Concentrating on a few individual values and a really large core (I'm also talking about more than 150k€ in the core here) is the true core-satellite strategy for me. That I had neglected this over the years somewhat, or expanded - normal. So now "back to the roots", or "back to simplicity".

Time is not money, but valuable in terms of family, free time and your own health.

And otherwise so?

Soon the physiotherapy will start. I have no idea how to cope at the moment, but that will come.

I still have the post on hold for the "Green Investment" and the resolution (win pronounced in the poll) of the winner of the getquin-Cap. Both of which I have not forgotten. As soon as I can sit reasonably, without problems, I will get back to writing.

To getquin I will certainly become more active again, I have time now. At least 8 weeks (with good progress) is a long time.

So, keep your head up, dad is doing it too....

Your KneePapa. 🦵

$NVDA (-1,56%) What do you think? I'm not a long time and bought on 30.05. 3 Nvidia shares for 369€ each. The current rise is quite exciting for me and I would like to experience success in terms of pure profit. $MRK (-0,63%) and $DIS, (-1,1%) which I also own, are currently running rather lousy. I have therefore now set a stop loss for Nvidia at 406€. So I would still have 100 euros profit and could buy again in a dip, then also with more budget. Because in the long term I am convinced of Nvidia. But as a beginner, one is happy about a solid profit (especially if a correction is certainly imminent) - even if I am currently not dependent on the 100. Or is that quite catastrophically bad? 😊 Please do not tear 😇