$PETR3 (-0,01%)

And my portfolio is taking a hit.

But I'm not going to complain, since I got in at a pretty good price at the beginning of the year.

$IBZL (+0,1%)

The ETF follows suit.

Impact on the Stock Market

Experience shows that the reaction of the financial markets (particularly the benchmark Ibovespa index) and the local currency (the real) to Brazilian elections depends on several key factors:

Composition of the National Congress: For investors and bond markets, the congressional election is often just as crucial as the presidency. A fragmented parliament or a strong counterweight in Congress (such as the conservative centrist parties of the so-called Centrão) is often perceived by the markets as a check that makes it more difficult to pursue more radical economic policies unilaterally.

Fiscal policy and budget discipline: The biggest source of uncertainty for investors is Brazil’s national debt and compliance with budget rules. Signs of spending discipline and tax reforms usually lead to relief in the markets and a stronger real, while fears of expansive spending cause risk premiums to rise.

Monetary policy and interest rate trends: Since the Brazilian central bank (Banco Central do Brasil) responds to inflation and currency risks with high interest rates, the stock markets are particularly pricing in how the election results will affect future monetary policy and, consequently, the borrowing and investment costs for Brazilian companies.

Sectoral Reactions: State-affiliated companies (such as $PETR3 (-0,01%) or $BBAS14 do Brasil) generally react most strongly to changes in government, while commodity- and export-oriented companies (e.g., mining and agriculture) are more heavily influenced by global demand and exchange rates

.

$PETR4 (+1,29%)

Ticker: PETR4

Stock exchange: B3 (Brazil)

Sector: Oil & Gas (focus on offshore & pre-salt)

Current share price (last): approx. € 6.50

Petrobras is one of the largest integrated energy companies in the world and the dominant oil company in Brazil. Those who are only guided by headlines quickly overlook what is actually happening operationally.

Business model & strategic position

Petrobras covers large parts of the value chain:

• Exploration & production
• Refinery
• Transportation & Export

The focus is clearly on the Brazilian pre-salt fields - one of the most productive offshore areas in the world.

Advantages:

• High production volume per well
• Comparatively low production costs
• Technological leadership in the deepwater sector

The business remains profitable even at moderate oil prices.

Fundamental key figures (rounded, latest published annual figures)

• Sales: ~100-110 billion USD
• EBITDA: ~45-50 billion USD
• Net profit: ~20-25 billion USD
• Free cash flow: double-digit billions
• P/E ratio: often in the 3-5 range
• Debt: massively reduced since 2016

A company with this level of cash flow strength is currently trading at a valuation that is otherwise more likely to be seen in structural problem cases.

Dividends - the often underestimated factor

A central point is the dividend policy.

Petrobras has regularly paid high dividends in recent years - at times with double-digit yields.

Important here:

• The dividends are strongly linked to cash flow and the oil price.
• In strong years, considerable amounts were returned to shareholders.
• Even with a more moderate payout, the company remains a clear cash flow generator.

Of course, dividends are not guaranteed and are politically influenced. But historically, Petrobras has been highly attractive to income investors.

Political risk - a reality, but priced in

As a state-dominated company, political influence remains a factor:

• Investment priorities
• pricing policy
• Dividend strategy

However, it is precisely this risk that explains the extremely low valuation.

Anyone buying a P/E ratio of 3-5 is also buying the risk discount.

Scenarios up to 2030

It remains crucial:

• Oil price
• Production development
• capital allocation
• political framework conditions

Conservative scenario:

• Oil price ~70 USD
• Stable production
• Moderate dividends
• → Valuation level in the range of € 8-12 per share appears fundamentally justifiable.

More optimistic scenario:

• stable demand
• disciplined investments
• pragmatic policy
• → € 12-18 not unrealistic in the long term until 2030.

This is not a promise, but a range that can be derived from cash flow and valuation multiples.

Classification

Petrobras is:

• not a growth tech stock
• not an ESG favorite
• not a momentum trade

But it is:

• a highly profitable commodity producer
• with globally relevant reserves
• strong cash flows
• attractive dividend history
• and a very low valuation

Whether you invest depends on your own risk tolerance.

But to call a company with billions in cash flow, falling debt and globally competitive production costs "dead" across the board does not seem very number-based, to say the least.

Nevertheless, my personal opinion is that no investment advice should encourage anyone to buy or sell!

$PETR4 (+1,29%)
$PETR3 (-0,01%)
$PBR (+0,75%)
$E (+0%)
$SHEL (+0,62%)

#dividends
#dividente
#kgv
#energy
#öl
#gas

At the start of my investment, I thought I would get shares that pay out a lot of dividends. At my age (32), that's a minor matter, but I'm still happy when dividends are paid out. The money from the sale was directly reinvested in $PG (-0,15%) and $PEP (-0,52%) . As soon as $HTGC (+0,05%) is in the plus, it will also leave the portfolio and the money will be reinvested.

After more than 25 years of negotiations, the EU and the South American economic alliance Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay) have concluded a historic free trade agreement. This creates one of the largest free trade zones in the world - with over 700 million people and a combined economic area worth around 22 trillion USD.

This agreement could trigger global economic and stock market effects - for companies, industries and investors.

_________________________

🛃🚢 What will happen to the Mercosur agreement?

• Tariffs on up to 91% of EU exports and 92% of Mercosur exports are to be gradually eliminated.
• The aim is to create a larger single market, better market access, simplified rules and more stable trading conditions between Europe and South America.
• Until now, high tariffs have applied to cars (approx. 35%), machinery (14-20%) and chemical products (up to 18%).

_________________________

📊 Possible effects on the stock market

📈 1. industries with strong exports benefit from higher demand

Europe can sell its products more easily in South America:

• 👩‍🏭 Cars & car parts
• 🏭 Mechanical engineering
• 🧪 Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
• 🪄 Electronics & high-tech

The elimination of customs duties and fewer trade barriers will increase the margins and competitiveness of these industries.

Possible examples of Frofiteurs:

• VW $VOW (-0,29%) BMW $BMW (-0,53%) Daimler $DTG (-0,32%)
• Siemens $SIE (-0,23%)
• BASF $BAS (+0,35%) Covestro $1COV (+0%)
• SAP $SAP (-0,46%) , ASML $ASML (+1,71%)

➡️ Expected share price impetus from higher export revenues and capped production costs.

_________________________

🍖 2. agricultural & food sector in focus

The agricultural business is also becoming more closely networked on both sides:

• Tariffs on wine, oil, cheese, dairy products and luxury foods are being reduced or gradually created.
• EU producers will gain greater market access in South America; conversely, South American agricultural exports (e.g. beef, sugar) will have better access to the EU.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Nestlé $NESN (-0,14%) Danone $BN (-0,69%)
• Heineken $HEIA (+1,2%) AB InBev $ABI (-0,05%)
• FrieslandCampina $FCEPL

⚠️ However, critics point out that price pressure on local farmers* also arises and environmental risks can increase, for example due to cheaper imports.

_________________________

🚗 3. raw materials & energy: medium to long-term effects

Mercosur countries export large quantities of raw materials:

• Soy, sugar, coffee, ethanol, grain
• Brazil is also a major supplier of crude oil and minerals

One of the aims of the agreement is more stable commodity trade with fewer tariffs, which can influence commodity prices and move the shares of commodity and energy companies.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Vale $VALE3 (+0,69%) Petrobras $PETR3 (-0,01%)
• Bunge $BG (-0,03%) , ADM $ADM (-0,85%)

_________________________

🏦 4. finance & services sector

The agreement also facilitates:

• Market access for financial services
• Opening of telecom and transportation markets
• Opening of public procurement to EU suppliers

➡️ This could strengthen banks, insurers and logistics companies that operate across borders.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Allianz $ALV (-0,3%) Deutsche Bank $DBK (+2,53%)
• DHL/Deutsche Post $DHL (-0,46%) Kuehne + Nagel $KNIN (-0,97%)

_________________________

🔄 Short-term market risks

Not everything is automatically positive:

• 🇪🇺 Agricultural protests in Europe show resistance to cheap imports.
• Political uncertainties remain - many parliaments need to ratify.
• Sectors with low competitiveness could come under price pressure.

_________________________

📌 Conclusion

The Mercosur agreement could be an issue with far-reaching effects:

✅ Strong export industry gains new sales markets

✅ Agricultural and luxury food sector gains sales opportunities

✅ Financial and service sector benefits from market expansion

✅ Raw material exporting countries in South America could become more integrated

⚠️ At the same time, there are risks for local producers and price distortions that could have a regional impact on share prices

_________________________

Question for you: What is your opinion on the agreement? And in which sectors or listed companies do you see the biggest winners in the long term?

_________________________

Sources:

- 🌎🤝 Mercosur-Freihandelsabkommen zwischen EU & Mercosur unterzeichnet – größte Freihandelszone weltweit

- 💶📈 Wirtschaftliche Chancen für EU-Exporteure und Importeure durch Zollerleichterungen

- ⚙️🚗 Branchenanalysen mit Zollabbau-Effekten für Maschinen, Autos, Chemie etc.

- 🌾🥩 Agrar- und Rohstoff-Impakte durch neue Marktchancen und Quotenregelungen

$PETR3 (-0,01%) How long does it take before the dividend becomes visible in the securities account?

The payday should have been on 21.11.

Does anyone have any experience?

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