Petrobras Brasileiro

Azione

ISIN: BRPETRACNOR9

Ticker: PETR3

BRPETRACNOR9

PETR3

Price

Discussione su PETR3

Messaggi

101

M_Dx

@M_Dx

3Mes·

Me being me, but trying to get smarter ;-) (Portfolio Update)

Dear getquin Community,

since my last post, I thought it’s time for a quick (and honest) update — including a few lessons learned and probably a few mistakes repeated 😉

What I’ve been up to:

1. Doubling down on conviction (yes, still doing it)

I continued to lean into my “conviction” plays and added to positions during drawdowns, including:

Mining:
$RIO (+2,17%) / $BHP (+2,36%) / $VALE3 (+0,68%) / $ABX (-0,23%)
Health-Care:
$PFE (+0%) / $BMY (+0%) / $NOVO B (+1,6%)
Others:
$INTC (-2,49%) / $ADM (+0,81%) / $PETR3 (+1,08%)

All of them went through pretty painful drawdowns along the way (nothing new here…).

Interestingly, most of them are now back in solid positive territory — with the notable exception of Novo Nordisk. 👉 Not sure yet if this validates my approach… or just means I got lucky this time.

2. Playing cycles (trying at least)

I’ve also started to lean more into sector rotation / cycle investing:

Utilities ($RWE (-0,51%) / $ENGI (-0,55%) / $ENEL (+0,7%)) in 2025 — when everything seemed to be about AI and they felt ignored
Chemicals ($LYB (+0,76%) / $DOW (+1,58%) / $BNR) (+1,46%) in early 2026 — when the market mood felt close to “pricing for insolvency”

So far, this feels more like investing and less like reacting — but let’s see how it plays out over a full cycle. Thinking about consumer discretionary 🧐right now (e.g. $GIS (+1,05%) / $NESN) 👉 What are your thoughts on this?

3. Dividend psychology (my personal “hack”)

I’ve realized I genuinely enjoy dividend-paying stocks.

Not because the amounts are huge (they’re not 😄), but because:

those small push notifications on the phone
create a feeling of “progress”
and somehow keep me invested when prices go down

It’s probably a bit of a mental trick:

“At least the dividend is coming in…”

Not fully rational — but surprisingly effective for me.

🤔 Where I’m struggling

1. Bonds (especially USD)

I increased my bond exposure — particularly USD-denominated bonds.

So far:

price performance → mostly negative
total return → slightly cushioned by coupons

Feels like a patience game right now… but definitely not (yet) a success story.

2. Too many positions (yes… still)

I’ll keep this short because I already know the answer:

👉 I own too many positions.

Reasons:

too many podcasts
too many “interesting ideas”
too little discipline

At this point I’m seriously considering:

stopping input… and letting a few savings plans just run in the background

🧠 A bit of self-reflection

One thing I’m increasingly aware of:

I like being contrarian
I like buying into weakness
I really like doubling down

But I’m also starting to realize:

There’s a thin line between conviction… and just being stubborn. Or more bluntly:

Am I exploiting inefficiencies — or just becoming a well-diversified bagholder?

Still working on that one.

🙌 Final thoughts

As always:

happy to get feedback
roast me wherever you see fit
especially on position sizing, bonds, and my “doubling down” habits

Stay invested, stay healthy, and enjoy the Easter holidays 🐣

Best regards,

Markus

4 Commenti

3Mes

Thanks for sharing.
I fully hear you, on the self-reflection part.
What needs to support your conviction is real data.
Personally, I like to play the highest level, long term macro trends, driven by geography and demographics.
No matter what your conviction is: ask yourself what real data would invalidate your thesis.

•

Visualizza tutti 3 ulteriori risposte

Justin

@TheDivWatcher

3Mes·

February update

Almost forgot about the february update.

Starter looking more into dividend growth stocks and changed a bit of my persepective on my portfolio. Decided for the long-run this is (I think) more efficient for me. So I bought a lot of dividend growth stocks and ETF's and sold some of the high-dividend ETF's/Stocks:

Bought:

$SEL (+0,71%)
$EUHD (+0,78%)
$FUR (+0,81%)
$WINC (+0,23%)
$AGN (+0,53%)
$INRG (-0,39%)

Sold:

$SDIP (+0,53%)
$PNL (+0,05%)
$RWS (+2,68%)
$PETR3 (+1,08%)

Dividends received this month: €35,09

Dividends per montly average: €45,43

See you next month!

KoenigsRasse

@KoenigsRasse

4Mes·

Petrobras (PETR4) - Said to be dead, but the numbers tell a different story

$PETR4 (+0,2%)

Ticker: PETR4

Stock exchange: B3 (Brazil)

Sector: Oil & Gas (focus on offshore & pre-salt)

Current share price (last): approx. € 6.50

Petrobras is one of the largest integrated energy companies in the world and the dominant oil company in Brazil. Those who are only guided by headlines quickly overlook what is actually happening operationally.

Business model & strategic position

Petrobras covers large parts of the value chain:

Exploration & production
Refinery
Transportation & Export

The focus is clearly on the Brazilian pre-salt fields - one of the most productive offshore areas in the world.

Advantages:

High production volume per well
Comparatively low production costs
Technological leadership in the deepwater sector

The business remains profitable even at moderate oil prices.

Fundamental key figures (rounded, latest published annual figures)

Sales: ~100-110 billion USD
EBITDA: ~45-50 billion USD
Net profit: ~20-25 billion USD
Free cash flow: double-digit billions
P/E ratio: often in the 3-5 range
Debt: massively reduced since 2016

A company with this level of cash flow strength is currently trading at a valuation that is otherwise more likely to be seen in structural problem cases.

Dividends - the often underestimated factor

A central point is the dividend policy.

Petrobras has regularly paid high dividends in recent years - at times with double-digit yields.

Important here:

The dividends are strongly linked to cash flow and the oil price.
In strong years, considerable amounts were returned to shareholders.
Even with a more moderate payout, the company remains a clear cash flow generator.

Of course, dividends are not guaranteed and are politically influenced. But historically, Petrobras has been highly attractive to income investors.

Political risk - a reality, but priced in

As a state-dominated company, political influence remains a factor:

Investment priorities
pricing policy
Dividend strategy

However, it is precisely this risk that explains the extremely low valuation.

Anyone buying a P/E ratio of 3-5 is also buying the risk discount.

Scenarios up to 2030

It remains crucial:

Oil price
Production development
capital allocation
political framework conditions

Conservative scenario:

Oil price ~70 USD
Stable production
Moderate dividends
→ Valuation level in the range of € 8-12 per share appears fundamentally justifiable.

More optimistic scenario:

stable demand
disciplined investments
pragmatic policy
→ € 12-18 not unrealistic in the long term until 2030.

This is not a promise, but a range that can be derived from cash flow and valuation multiples.

Classification

Petrobras is:

not a growth tech stock
not an ESG favorite
not a momentum trade

But it is:

a highly profitable commodity producer
with globally relevant reserves
strong cash flows
attractive dividend history
and a very low valuation

Whether you invest depends on your own risk tolerance.

But to call a company with billions in cash flow, falling debt and globally competitive production costs "dead" across the board does not seem very number-based, to say the least.

Nevertheless, my personal opinion is that no investment advice should encourage anyone to buy or sell!

$PETR4 (+0,2%)
$PETR3 (+1,08%)
$PBR (+2,02%)
$E (-0,24%)
$SHEL (+1,13%)

#dividends
#dividente
#kgv
#energy
#öl
#gas

12 Commenti

Epi@Epi

4Mes

Classic EM value play.
Will be seen much more frequently in portfolios in the coming years. 👍

•

Visualizza tutti 4 ulteriori risposte

Faecherstadt_76

@Faecherstadt_76

5Mes·

Reallocation

At the start of my investment, I thought I would get shares that pay out a lot of dividends. At my age (32), that's a minor matter, but I'm still happy when dividends are paid out. The money from the sale was directly reinvested in $PG (+0,34%) and $PEP (-0,26%) . As soon as $HTGC (+2,18%) is in the plus, it will also leave the portfolio and the money will be reinvested.

28.01

Petrobras Brasileiro

Venduto x61 a 6,19 €

377,57 €

16,20%

Techaktien

@Techaktien

5Mes·

Podcast-Folge 126 "Buy High. Sell Low." 17 US Dividenden-Aktien 🗽🇺🇲💵

UnitedHealth 2,67% $UNH (-1,35%)

Chevron 4,11% $CVX (+1,22%)

Exxon Mobil 3,17% $XOM

Lockheed Martin 2,37% $LMT (+1,17%)

Blackstone 2,87% $BXSL (+1,08%)

Diamondback Energy 2,64% $F1AN34

Constellation Energy 0,50% $CEG

Nike 2,6% $NKE (+3,93%)

Procter & Gamble 2,92% $PG (+0,34%)

PepsiCo 3,89% $PEP (-0,26%)

Petrobras 14,45% (Brasilien) $PETR3 (+1,08%)

Texas Instruments 2,96% $TXN (+1,54%)

IBM 2,20% $IBM (-1,63%)

Verizon 7,09% $VZ (+0,01%)

Merck 3,12% $MRK (-1,26%)

Coca Cola 2,9% $KO (+1,2%)

Amgen 2,92% $AMGN (+0,14%)

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7hq0n56Srxggy46v7p9LsJ?si=9s_zmimuQeuBClpKMXVk5g

YouTube

https://openyoutu.be/VpoR3gPJg3U

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/126-siebzehn-us-dividenden-aktien/id1695869891?i=1000745737259

open.spotify.com#126 Siebzehn US Dividenden - Aktien

HoldTheMike

@HoldTheMike

5Mes·

🌎📈 Mercosur agreement: Mega free trade - opportunities for the stock market & potential profiteers

After more than 25 years of negotiations, the EU and the South American economic alliance Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay) have concluded a historic free trade agreement. This creates one of the largest free trade zones in the world - with over 700 million people and a combined economic area worth around 22 trillion USD.

This agreement could trigger global economic and stock market effects - for companies, industries and investors.

_________________________

🛃🚢 What will happen to the Mercosur agreement?

Tariffs on up to 91% of EU exports and 92% of Mercosur exports are to be gradually eliminated.
The aim is to create a larger single market, better market access, simplified rules and more stable trading conditions between Europe and South America.
Until now, high tariffs have applied to cars (approx. 35%), machinery (14-20%) and chemical products (up to 18%).

_________________________

📊 Possible effects on the stock market

📈 1. industries with strong exports benefit from higher demand

Europe can sell its products more easily in South America:

👩‍🏭 Cars & car parts
🏭 Mechanical engineering
🧪 Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
🪄 Electronics & high-tech

The elimination of customs duties and fewer trade barriers will increase the margins and competitiveness of these industries.

Possible examples of Frofiteurs:

VW $VOW (-1,36%) BMW $BMW (-0,46%) Daimler $DTG (+0,16%)
Siemens $SIE (-0,02%)
BASF $BAS (-0,45%) Covestro $1COV (+0,17%)
SAP $SAP (-0,12%) , ASML $ASML (-0,04%)

➡️ Expected share price impetus from higher export revenues and capped production costs.

_________________________

🍖 2. agricultural & food sector in focus

The agricultural business is also becoming more closely networked on both sides:

Tariffs on wine, oil, cheese, dairy products and luxury foods are being reduced or gradually created.
EU producers will gain greater market access in South America; conversely, South American agricultural exports (e.g. beef, sugar) will have better access to the EU.

Possible beneficiaries:

Nestlé $NESN (+0,24%) Danone $BN (+0,3%)
Heineken $HEIA (+1,67%) AB InBev $ABI (+0,61%)
FrieslandCampina $FCEPL

⚠️ However, critics point out that price pressure on local farmers* also arises and environmental risks can increase, for example due to cheaper imports.

_________________________

🚗 3. raw materials & energy: medium to long-term effects

Mercosur countries export large quantities of raw materials:

Soy, sugar, coffee, ethanol, grain
Brazil is also a major supplier of crude oil and minerals

One of the aims of the agreement is more stable commodity trade with fewer tariffs, which can influence commodity prices and move the shares of commodity and energy companies.

Possible beneficiaries:

Vale $VALE3 (+0,68%) Petrobras $PETR3 (+1,08%)
Bunge $BG (+0,64%) , ADM $ADM (+0,81%)

_________________________

🏦 4. finance & services sector

The agreement also facilitates:

Market access for financial services
Opening of telecom and transportation markets
Opening of public procurement to EU suppliers

➡️ This could strengthen banks, insurers and logistics companies that operate across borders.

Possible beneficiaries:

Allianz $ALV (+0,15%) Deutsche Bank $DBK (+1,38%)
DHL/Deutsche Post $DHL (-0,42%) Kuehne + Nagel $KNIN (+0,77%)

_________________________

🔄 Short-term market risks

Not everything is automatically positive:

🇪🇺 Agricultural protests in Europe show resistance to cheap imports.
Political uncertainties remain - many parliaments need to ratify.
Sectors with low competitiveness could come under price pressure.

_________________________

📌 Conclusion

The Mercosur agreement could be an issue with far-reaching effects:

✅ Strong export industry gains new sales markets

✅ Agricultural and luxury food sector gains sales opportunities

✅ Financial and service sector benefits from market expansion

✅ Raw material exporting countries in South America could become more integrated

⚠️ At the same time, there are risks for local producers and price distortions that could have a regional impact on share prices

_________________________

Question for you: What is your opinion on the agreement? And in which sectors or listed companies do you see the biggest winners in the long term?

_________________________

Sources:

- 🌎🤝 Mercosur-Freihandelsabkommen zwischen EU & Mercosur unterzeichnet – größte Freihandelszone weltweit

- 💶📈 Wirtschaftliche Chancen für EU-Exporteure und Importeure durch Zollerleichterungen

- ⚙️🚗 Branchenanalysen mit Zollabbau-Effekten für Maschinen, Autos, Chemie etc.

- 🌾🥩 Agrar- und Rohstoff-Impakte durch neue Marktchancen und Quotenregelungen

apnews.comEuropean Union and Mercosur bloc of South American nations sign landmark free trade agreement

7 Commenti

Chris@Multibagger

5Mes

I see a major impact in the medium term, especially for smaller stocks, as a few larger orders that you couldn't get before because of 25% tariffs, e.g. in mechanical engineering, have a major impact on results. In this context, I saw an interview with the CEO of $JST yesterday. However, this will have no short-term impact on the stock market for the profiteers.

•

Douglas64

@Douglas64

7Mes·

When is the dividend paid?

$PETR3 (+1,08%) How long does it take before the dividend becomes visible in the securities account?

The payday should have been on 21.11.

Does anyone have any experience?

10 Commenti

Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

7Mes

That can really take time. It's like an egg. At some point it pops and the dividend is there, can take a week to 14 days, depending on whether the suitcase of money is traveling by plane or ship 😉

•

Code & Capital

@Codeandcapital

8Mes·

Quartalszahlen 03.11.25-07.11.15

$BNTX (-1,48%)
$ON (-2,17%)
$HIMS (-3,13%)
$PLTR (-1,59%)
$O (+0,18%)
$8058 (+1,65%)
$7974 (+0,44%)
$BP. (+1,13%)
$BOSS (+0,37%)
$SWK (+1,82%)
$SPOT (-0,59%)
$N1CL34
$UBER (+0,69%)
$CPRI (-0,13%)
$SHOP (-0,25%)
$RACE (-1,08%)
$HOG (+1,26%)
$HTZ (-3,65%)
$PFIZER
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$ANET (+2%)
$PINS (-0,5%)
$TEM (-5,25%)
$AMD (+2,36%)
$SMCI (+0,61%)
$RIVN (-3,94%)
$BYND (-1,69%)
$KTOS (-1,03%)
$CPNG (-1,8%)
$BMW (-0,46%)
$NOVO B (+1,6%)
$FRE (+0,96%)
$ORSTED (-0,44%)
$AG1 (+2,51%)
$EVT (-0,62%)
$CCO (-0,21%)
$DOCN (-7,08%)
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$SONO (+3,08%)
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$FSLY (-3,05%)
$HUBS (+0,83%)
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$ARM (-2,07%)
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$DASH (+0,04%)
$APP (-1,97%)
$AMC (-0,6%)
$ZIP (-1,17%)
$FIG (-4,83%)
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$DUOL
$UN0 (+1,05%)
$CBK (+2,27%)
$DEZ (-1,38%)
$ZAL (-0,15%)
$HEN (-0,21%)
$MAERSK A (-0,63%)
$HEI (+3,08%)
$CON (+1,3%)
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$MRNA (-10,36%)
$QBTS (-4,86%)
$WBD (+0,43%)
$LI (+2,16%)
$RHM (-1,8%)
$DDOG (-3,61%)
$RL (+2,08%)
$OPEN (-9,29%)
$ABNB (+1,82%)
$PTON (-0,77%)
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$TTD (-0,81%)
$STNE (+2,41%)
$SQ (+0,07%)
$GRND (-1,43%)
$IREN (-2,18%)
$AFRM (+0%)
$CRISP (+0,32%)
$RUN (+0%)
$7011 (+1,85%)
$DTG (+0,16%)
$HAG (+0,43%)
$DKNG (+0,65%)
$LAC (-7,03%)
$KKR (+0,76%)
$PETR3 (+1,08%)
$CEG
$WEED (-1,16%)

S.A.U.

@SAUgut777

10Mes·

Petrobras with strong Q2 2025 despite falling oil prices

Petrobras $PETR3 (+1,08%)
$PETR4 (+0,2%) delivered a robust performance in the second quarter of 2025, generating a net profit of USD 4.1 billion.

This was achieved despite a significant fall in the price of Brent crude oil from USD 75.7 to USD 60.7 per barrel.

The company's operational efficiency and strategic focus on exploration and production contributed to this resilience.

Petrobras' ability to maintain production levels and expand its presence in the natural gas market further underlines the company's competitive position in the industry.

《》Financial key figures《《

● Net profit: 4.1 billion US dollars

● EBITDA: 10.2 billion US dollars

● Operating cash flow: 7.5 billion US dollars

● Dividend payout: USD 8.7 billion (45% of free cash flow)

《》Outlook & forecast《《

Petrobras is sticking to its CapEx forecast of USD 18.5 bn for 2025 and is aiming to reach the upper end of its production forecast.

The company is aiming to increase production by 100,000 barrels per day, which could generate potential additional revenue of USD 2.5 billion at a price of USD 70 per barrel.

This strategic focus is intended to strengthen Petrobras' market position and promote future growth.

1 Commento

Daniel Kaufmann@Wollitz

10Mes

@SAUgut77: Thanks for the news, I like reading it :-) From an investor's point of view, I wouldn't mind the price of crude oil slowly going back up to or above $70. It might not be so pleasant when filling up at the pump, but the corresponding dividends would make it bearable ;-)

•

Duria

@portfolio_prophet_2834

10Mes·