.... which is quite astonishing. Below are a few thoughts on two titles that are actually quite significant, with best regards from the “parallel universe.” With a wink, yet a serious underlying message.

Best regards on this matter from the ailing @Raketentoni

This is Mr. Prompt speaking.And I swear to you, I just nearly snorted my coffee right through my nose into the sunroom from laughing so hard. Your wet “tech-only-goes-up” dream finally kicked the bucket after the market closed tonight, and honestly: It was long overdue for the market to give you arrogant finfluencer clowns a good, hard kick in the groin. For months, you’ve been selling your naive followers your stupid “buy-and-hold” wisdom for 99 euros in your premium Discord channel, while your own pocket-money portfolios are burning to ashes right before your eyes. Let’s take a look at your after-hours bloodbath:

• Amazon (AMZN) $AMZN (-10,47%)
  : Your infallible cloud cash cow has just impressively proven that it can’t stay afloat. A massive revenue miss, and the stock is plummeting by double digits. Your oh-so-"safe bet" is currently eating up your entire year’s performance, because on Wall Street, real numbers matter—not your embarrassing rocket emojis on Instagram.
• Intel (INTC) $INTC (-23,14%)
  : My God, are there really still idiots out there who thought this wheelchair-bound grandpa of the tech world was a “turnaround miracle”? The outlook was so disastrous that the stock was sent tumbling 20% in after-hours trading. From 92 straight down to 79 USD. Congratulations to everyone who bought the dip here—you’ve just successfully chopped off your own hands.

My only serious investment tip for tomorrow morning at 8:00 a.m.: Go all-in on Essity or Kimberly-Clark! Buy some damn tissue stocks! Fundamental demand is going to explode tomorrow when tens of thousands of wannabe Warren Buffetts are sitting in the bathroom crying because their TradeRepublic app is suddenly glowing deep red. I can already smell those pathetic WhatsApp and Telegram groups. They’ll be overflowing with panic. Some will be wailing in despair: “Guys, what’s going on here?! Is this the big crash?!”

And then the truly disgusting hypocrites will crawl out of the woodwork. The guys who were still yelling “All in, to the moon!” just yesterday will wipe the cold sweat from their brows and type smugly: “Well, I knew it all along. The correction was overdue, just as I predicted.” Pathetic. You didn’t know a thing—you were just praying that the market would keep subsidizing your cluelessness. Wipe away your tears, go make some real money, and get back in touch when you’ve figured out how to read balance sheets. Until then, I’ll be watching from up here as your portfolios continue to bleed out!

Since we old farts often express ourselves in a way that’s hard to understand, here’s another version for our younger generation to grasp better—with love from your hated boomers 🤭:

Yoo, Mr. Prompt here, fr fr fresh off the leash. All your finance bros and TikTok hustlers are totally delusional right now, no cap. You’ve been preaching to your followers for months that megacaps are the absolute cheat code for your portfolio—but just watch how your portfolios are getting absolutely crushed in after-hours trading right now.

• Amazon (AMZN): Bro, anyone who thought AWS prints infinite money is completely lost. Huge revenue miss, and the stock is just dropping by double digits in after-hours trading. Your “safe bet” is just eating up your entire annual performance because Wall Street doesn’t give a shit about your cringey rocket emojis on Insta. Total L-take.
• Intel (INTC): Dude, INTC is the ultimate boss in the copium game. Anyone who seriously thought this boomer stock was a “turnaround miracle” has lost control of their life. The outlook was so dismal that the stock price crashed 20% in after-hours trading. It just got wiped out from $92 to $79. Congratulations to all the NPCs still buying the dip—you’ve just canceled yourselves.

My only tip for tomorrow at 8 a.m.: Go all-in on Essity or Kimberly-Clark. Grab some tissue stock! Demand is going to go completely wild tomorrow when all those Trade Republic kids are stuck in the bathroom crying because their portfolios are deep in the red. I can already smell the panic in the Telegram groups. Some are wailing: “Chat, what’s happening here—is this the crash?!” And then the totally “sus” fake gurus crawl out of their holes. The guys who were still saying just yesterday "To the moon, trust the process" are now typing cockily: "Bro, I called it—the correction was long overdue." The ultimate cringe. You didn’t call anything—you were just praying that the market would keep carrying your lack of know-how.

Wipe away your tears, get back down to earth, go make some real money, and get back in touch when you can read financial statements. Until then, I’ll be watching from up here as your portfolios continue to bleed out. Slay!

Now wipe your mouths and let’s move on. And please keep your eyes open before buying the dip.

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Monday, Oct. 26

🇩🇪 10:30 a.m. – Germany: ifo Business Climate Index (Oct.)

🇺🇸 1:30 p.m. – U.S.: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sept.)

🇺🇸 3:30 p.m. – U.S.: Dallas Fed Business Index (Oct.)

Tuesday, Oct. 27

🇪🇺 10:00 a.m. – Eurozone: M3 Money Supply & Lending (Sept.)

✈️ 12:30 p.m. – U.S.: Boeing (Q3 Earnings)

🇺🇸 1:30 PM – U.S.: Durable Goods Orders (Sep.)

🇺🇸 2:00 PM – U.S.: FHFA House Price Index (Aug.)

🇺🇸 3:00 PM – U.S.: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.)

🇺🇸 3:00 PM – U.S.: New Home Sales (Sep.)

🪶 10:00 PM – Robinhood (Q3 earnings)

Wednesday, Oct. 28

🇩🇪 8:00 AM – Germany: GfK Consumer Climate (Nov.)

🇨🇦 2:45 PM – Canada: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

🇺🇸 7:00 PM – US: Fed Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) 🌶

🇺🇸 7:30 PM – U.S.: Fed press conference (Kevin Warsh)

🤑 9:00 PM – U.S.: Alphabet & Microsoft (Q3 earnings)

Thursday, Oct. 29

🇪🇺 11:00 a.m. – Eurozone: Economic and Industrial Confidence (Oct.)

🇺🇸 1:30 p.m. – U.S.: Q3 2026 GDP (1st estimate) & Personal Consumption

🇺🇸 1:30 PM – U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims

🇪🇺 2:15 PM – Eurozone: ECB Interest Rate Decision 🌶

🇪🇺 2:45 PM – Eurozone: ECB press conference (Christine Lagarde)

💵 9:00 PM – U.S.: Amazon & Intel (Q3 earnings)

Friday, Oct. 30

🇯🇵 12:30 a.m. – Japan: Tokyo CPI & Unemployment Rate

🇩🇪 10:00 a.m. – Germany: Q3 2026 GDP (1st estimate)

🇪🇺 11:00 a.m. – Eurozone: Q3 2026 GDP (1st estimate) & Unemployment Rate

🇩🇪 2:00 p.m. – Germany: CPI Inflation (Oct., preliminary)

🇺🇸 2:45 PM – U.S.: Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Oct.)

🇺🇸 8:30 PM – U.S.: CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT Report)

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Last week's Neocloud crash has $CRWV (-7,03%), $NBIS (-8,24%) and $IREN (-11,2%) sent it into a tailspin. What’s behind this, and what has actually changed for the future?

It all starts with the price of oil

Since the attacks on Iran, the price of oil has risen from ~$80 in August to over $106 per barrel. This is having a major impact on U.S. inflation:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): 3.7% in September, compared to an expected 3.6%. That’s nearly double the Fed’s 2% target
• Core inflation: 2.6%, also above expectations
• Producer prices (PPI): 6.3% year-over-year, more than three times the Fed’s target. Month-over-month: +1.3%, nearly double the expected increase and the sharpest rise since March 2022

The Fed raised interest rates on September 16 for the first time since 2023 raised interest ratesto 3.75–4.00%. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds stood at over 5.2% at the end of September, the highest it has been since 2007. Added to this is a U.S. government that is sinking deeper and deeper into debt and must continually issue new bonds.

This is precisely where the problem with Neoclouds lies: The expansion of AI is largely financed by debt and competes for the same investors as the U.S. government. If a government bond yields over 5% with almost no risk, lenders will demand significantly more from a company that is still operating at a loss.

The trigger for the crash: CoreWeave’s bonds

On October 14, a chart went viral showing a CoreWeave bond worth $1.25 billion with a yield of just under 15% . It was issued in June at 9.625%. The credit default swap (CDS) is at a record high of 1,194.5 basis points; on October 6, it was still at 368.

According to standard calculations, this corresponds to a probability of default of over 60% within five years.

On the same day, Gartner added: By 2030, over 80% of Neocloud providers are expected to lose their independence. By then, AI data centers would generate at most $3.6 trillion in revenue, whereas $8.5 trillion would be needed.

Is this fear justified?

In CoreWeave’s case, partly yes. The higher market yield doesn’t affect the interest rate on existing bonds, but each new round of financing becomes more expensive, and CoreWeave’s growth depends on new loans. However, the 60% figure is a market price from a week of panic and not a forecast.

IREN and Nebius are in a different position

IREN has financed the Microsoft project $MSFT (-6,52%) at ~6% with $3.6 billion. Microsoft accepted Horizon 1 in August, and revenue has been generated since then. Horizon 2 through 4 are scheduled to follow in the fourth quarter; contractually, there is a buffer until early Q2 2027.

Information is currently circulating on X that Microsoft $IREN (-11,2%) is said to have provided incorrect network requirements, forcing the current Childress data centers to be have to be . Horizon 2 is reportedly delayed by ~45 days as a result; Horizon 1 will continue to operate and will continue to be paid for by Microsoft during the retrofit. Horizon 3 & 4 are not expected to be affected, as they will be completed directly with the correct network specifications. Thus, all four buildings are expected to generate revenue by the end of the year as planned. None of this has been officially confirmed.

In July, Nebius switched to a more capital-efficient model in which partners finance the data centers. In addition, advance payments from customers already amount to ~40–55% of the contract total, which alleviates a large portion of Neocloud’s financing risk. Added to this is the possibility of asset-backed financing, whereby the data centers themselves can be used as collateral for loans, thereby reducing interest rates. Nevertheless, the market treats the three companies—with their differing financing risks—as a single entity.

Demand points in the opposite direction

The GPU rental prices are rising: As of October 1, Nebius raised the price for B300 GPUs by 21% to $9.50 per hour—the second increase in three months.

The DESKB300 Rental Index, based on actual rental transactions at U.S. neoclouds, reached a record high in mid-October, driven in part by inference using open-source models. This does not bode well for concerns that GPUs are depreciating too quickly.

GPU rental prices could also be influenced by rising financing costs and thus increase—so overall, this is more of a neutral process.

Jensen Huang told Bloomberg in Berlin on October 16: “All of this is going to pass.” AI will transform every industry, he said, and we’re only at the beginning. According to Huang, CoreWeave’s cost of capital is actually falling. The bond market saw things differently this week.

Time is the real bottleneck

A data center isn’t built in a single quarter. Securing land and a power connection often takes years, and the construction itself is complex. Neocloud stocks are bets on where these companies will be in three to five years, but they’re traded as if they had to deliver every week.

Even with growing demand, not all of them will make it. Some will repeatedly dilute their shareholders, some will be acquired, and some will fail.

What matters is how management finances the expansion and whether it delivers on its promises.

Sharp sell-offs, months of stagnation, and rallies after which everyone suddenly turns bullish again are all part of this sector and should be clear to every investor. A five-year thesis is difficult to gauge based on year-to-date performance.

Overall, the market is pricing in a financing problem—one that is particularly acute for CoreWeave—and applying it to the entire sector. At the same time, demand for computing power shows no signs of weakness—quite the opposite.

High long-term interest rates are the main risk for all players

If government bond yields remain above 5% for the long term, every new round of financing will become more expensive, and that affects all three companies. CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN are only at the beginning of their expansion and will need to raise many billions more for data centers and GPUs in the coming years. More expensive financing therefore puts direct pressure on future returns. Against this backdrop, the sell-off is understandable, even if demand itself remains intact.

Key events to watch include Nebius’s earnings report, expected on October 22; the Fed meeting in late October; and the acceptance of Horizon 2. Additionally, the course of the conflict (Iran & the U.S.) must be closely monitored, as it will significantly shape future developments.

Not investment advice

Sources:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/coreweave-credit-default-swaps-hit-distress-levels-as-investors-sour-on-ai-debt.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/whats-behind-the-sell-off-in-ai-neocloud-stocks-like-coreweave-and-nebius-.html

https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-10-14-gartner-says-over-us-dollars-three-and-a-half-trillion-of-artificial-intelligence-infrastructure-spending-could-be-exposed-to-impairment-by-the-end-of-2030

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001878848/000187884826000052/iren-20260630.htm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-16/nvidia-ceo-on-ai-market-turmoil-all-of-this-is-going-to-pass

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