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Seagate Technology
Price
Discussione su STX
Messaggi
6Quartalszahlen 26.01-30.01.2026
🚀 Momentum strategy 2026: Update & objective 📈
Happy New Year everyone! 🎆 Just in time for the start of the year, I would like to share my portfolio update for the Top 8 share pool with you and give you an outlook for 2026.
First things first: no one knows whether 2026 will be a bull or bear year. Predictions for individual assets are often dubious. That's why I'm sticking to my rule-based model and present you with the current top 10.
🔝 My top 8 for the preselection 1st half of 2026:
Rank Share Sector Momentum Score
1 Western Digital ($WDC (-3%) IT / Storage solutions 115,2 %
2 Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD (-0,5%) ) Communication / Media 103,8 %
3 Micron Technology ($MU (+0,4%) ) IT / Semiconductor 103,2 %
4 Seagate Tech ($STX (-0,7%) IT / storage solutions 83,0 %
5 Albemarle ($ALB (+0,35%) Chemicals / Lithium 74,7 %
6 Teradyne ($TER (-0,67%) IT / semiconductor test 67,3 %
7 Newmont ($NEM (+1,69%) ) Commodities / Gold 66,4 %
8 AppLovin ($APP (-0,45%) Software / AdTech 64,4 %
(Closely followed by $HOOD (-0,27%)
and $LRCX (-1,89%)
in 9th & 10th place).
🔍 A few insights into the model:
The sector weighting is exciting this time. We see a strong cluster risk (but also momentum!) in the area of Memory technology and semiconductors.
Interesting: Almost all of the stocks did not perform until the 2nd half of 2025 generated. As my filter weights the most recent past more heavily than the older past, these stocks were flushed to the top. This could be a signal that the trend here is continuing to gather pace.
And which two stocks are we starting 2026 with?
They are still $MU (+0,4%) and $WDC (-3%) as these are the two leaders in the ranking within the share pool, in 3rd and 4th place by a relatively large margin.
This means that no action is required for the time being and the next check will not take place until the end of January.
🎯 My goal for 2026: The €50,000 mark
I'm starting with capital of 31.000 €. For motivation, I have created my projections based on various return scenarios:
My personal goal for the end of 2026 is a portfolio value of approx. 50.000 €. This requires a performance of around 60 %. Sporty? Yes. Impossible with momentum? No.
What is your assessment?
Especially with the memory values ($WDC (-3%) , $MU (+0,4%) , $STX (-0,7%) are often a divisive issue. Do you still see the sector as the leader in 2026 or will it soon run out of steam? 💬
I wish you all a successful year on the stock market and, above all, good health! 🍀
56% CAGR since 2000? Just utopian theory or actually possible? 📈🛡️ My path of single stock momentum investing
Foreword
I know what you're thinking. Is it time for finance porn again? You normally only see figures like this in dubious YouTube videos, WhatsApp or Telegram groups. But behind this theoretical performance is not a "magic trick", but a tough, quantitative set of rules. You will not only see the historical backtest returns below, but I will of course also show you the real returns that have been achieved since the start of the project. In the end, decide for yourself how realistic and how high the average annual return can be.
Introduction
Many private investors invest based on gut feeling, news headlines or "hot tips". I have decided to tune out the noise and put my trust in the bare figures. After months of development and intensive backtesting, today I present to you the logic of my S&P 500 Hybrid Momentum Model.
My goal: to motivate you to understand momentum not as "gambling" but as quantitative engineering and, of course, to get as close as possible to the returns of the backtest.
🔍 The origin: From ETF to individual stocks
It all started with classic momentum ETFs and strategies such as GTAA (Global Tactical Asset Allocation). But I wanted to know: Could this principle be transferred to individual stocks to significantly beat the market? After hundreds of backtests, analyzing various universes (SPY, QQQ) and sectors, I now have my set of rules.
💡 The basic idea: "Buy high, sell higher"
Winners" statistically continue to run, while "losers" continue to fall - Buying at the ATH is historically more profitable than buying at the ATL.
While value investors act according to the motto "buy low, sell high", momentum uses the statistical tendency: Winners keep on running.
- An all-time high (ATH) is not a warning signal, but a sign of strength.
- The opportunity costs (waiting on the sidelines) are historically often higher than the risk of buying at the peak.
🧩 The concept: a selective powerhouse
My approach is a purely quantitative set of rules that isolates the strongest trends in the S&P 500:
The Universe: Focus on the 500 most liquid US large caps (S&P 500).
The selection: A pool of 8 stocks is selected through a time-weighted momentum scoring filtered. More recent price developments (last 6 months) weigh more heavily in order to capture trend reversals early.
The anchors: Oil & crypto proxies flow in as strategic counterweights to generate additional performance in specific cycles (inflation/risk-on).
The safety belt (absolute momentum): To avoid massive drawdowns like in 2000 or 2008, the S&P 500 Index acts as a market filter. If the signal is negative, the model consistently switches to cash or money market cash or money market ETFs.
⚙️ Execution: focus on the leaders
A review takes place every month. Only the top 2 assets with the highest average score are held.
- Why only two? The model is optimized for maximum performance. Diversification (top 3 or top 5) would reduce the maximum drawdown slightly, but would significantly dilute performance. If you prefer a more relaxed and less volatile approach, it is better to diversify here.
- Capital preservation as a turbo: Those who lose less in crises benefit exponentially more from the next upswing due to compound interest.
📊 Performance & live results
The theoretical data (2000-2024) shows an impressive CAGR of 56 %. I have been actively implementing the model since the end of 2023 - with approx. 80% of my total portfolio out of full conviction:
Returns
- 2024 +152,1 %
- 2025 YTD: approx. +30 %
⚠️ Transparency on risk & volatility
High potential returns require iron discipline. The strategy is not for the faint-hearted:
- Maximum drawdown: In the backtest there were setbacks of up to -37% (dotcom bubble 2000).
- Psychology: The biggest enemy is not the market, but deviating from the rulebook in volatile phases.
- Costs & taxes: Since it is a theoretical model, transaction costs and taxes reduce the result in reality. Nevertheless, the alpha advantage remains massive.
Conclusion
I will provide regular updates here on how the model assesses the current phase. This is not the only way to be successful - but it is my systematic way.
Become the engineer of your own portfolio. Test, optimize and stay disciplined.
Do you have any questions about the topic or anything else? Let me know in the comments! 👇
#Momentum
#Investing
#SP500
#SystematicTrading
#Finanzen
#TradingStrategy
#Backtest
#Wealth
Risk warning: No investment advice. Historical prices do not guarantee future profits. Any investment can lead to a total loss.
PS: The strategy can now also be viewed/bookmarked as a wikifolio:
Perhaps I will use it for part of my trading portfolio? It's exciting and promising in any case!
Seagate Technology Q1’26 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $2.63B (Est. $2.55B) 🟢; UP +21% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $2.61 (Est. $2.40) 🟢
🔹 Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 40.1% (record)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $427M
Guidance (Q2):
🔹 Revenue: $2.6B–$2.8B (Est. $2.67B) 🟡
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $2.55–$2.95 (Est. $2.67) 🟡
Capital Returns:
🔹 Dividend: Raised ~3% to $0.74/share; $182M returned (dividends + buybacks) in Q1
Product:
🔹 Ramping Mozaic HAMR high-capacity drives; qualified with five of the world’s largest cloud customers
CEO Commentary:
🔸 “Revenue grew 21% YoY with non-GAAP EPS above the high end of guidance.”
🔸 “We’re ramping areal-density-leading Mozaic HAMR products to meet robust cloud demand and AI-driven use cases.”
AI infrastructure continues to be one of the most exciting investment themes
$IREN (+6,84%)
$CIFR (+1,19%)
$BTC (-0,47%)
Maybe some exciting companies for you ✌️
I am currently only in $IREN (+6,84%) and $CIFR (+1,19%) which are the most promising for me in terms of the opportunity/return ratio. In the event of a further setback, I would $CIFR (+1,19%) probably add a little more and perhaps pick up one or two other companies.
AI stocks, sorted by YTD performance:
Hyperscalers: $GOOGL (-1,46%)
$MSFT (+2,62%)
$AMZN (+1,27%)
$ORCL (-1,21%)
$BABA (-2,91%)
Neocloud: $NBIS (-2,74%)
$IREN (+6,84%)
$CRWV (+1,28%)
$APLD (+7,46%)
$GLXY (+2,66%)
$WYFI
Memory: $SNDK
$STX (-0,7%)
$MU (+0,4%)
$WDC (-3%)
$PSTG (-3,39%)
Semiconductor: $NVDA (+1,14%)
$AVGO (-2,4%)
$AMD (+2,33%)
$TSM (+1,53%)
$ASML (-0,78%)
$ARM (-3,54%)
$KLAC (+0,11%)
$INTC (-12,36%)
Networking: $CIEN (-0,98%)
$CLS (+3,23%)
$CRDO
$RMBS (-7,32%)
$ANET (-1,86%)
$APH (-0,95%)
$COHR (-3,91%)
Servers: $VRT (-0,22%)
$DELL (-1,82%)
$HPE (-1,98%)
Data: $INOD (-2,61%)
$PLTR (+1,58%)
$SNOW (-1,54%)
$DDOG (-2,29%)
$MDB (-2,12%)
Energy: $LEU (-2,74%)
$CEG
$OKLO
$TLNE
$GEV (-1,24%)
$NXT (+0%)
Batteries: $EOSE
$QS (-4,89%)
$TSLA (-0,84%)
$MVST (-1,92%)
Every AI Value Chain explained:
In addition to $IREN and $CIFR also $GLXY, $INOD, $NVDA and $DDOG.
Plus $GOOGL, $AMZN and $BABA
So I'm pretty broadly positioned in this area when I look at it like this 😉😎
Others would say there is a cluster risk. However, the strategy of focusing on the highest possible returns means investing in the booming sectors, which at the moment are AI and commodities.
Largest AI data center built in town with 3347 inhabitants for 10 billion dollars
Hello folks,
AI is not just a pipe dream, AI is a reality.
And the DeepSeek narrative from a year ago has also disappeared.
I hope you are well invested in the shovel manufacturers who are building the infrastructure for the big 7. And supply them with electricity.
Meta secures nuclear power for data centers
https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/energie/meta-atomstrom-100.html
Talen Energy - Power producer signs long-term contract with Amazon Web Services.
EQT becomes energy supplier of the next AI era - Pennsylvania relies on gas instead of wind or solar.
GE Vernova is supplying seven @Simpson Homer City with seven high-performance turbines, while Kiewit Power is responsible for construction. This infrastructure lays the foundation for Pennsylvania to serve as a reliable supply location for hyperscalers and AI providers.
HOCHTIEF subsidiary builds mega data center for Meta in the USA
data centers
NVIDIA Corp ('US67066G1040')
A dominant player: Hardly any AI data center runs without Nvidia
Talen Energy Corp ('US87422Q1094')
Talen Energy - Power producer signs long-term contract with Amazon Web Services.
Applied Digital Corp ('US0381692070')
Applied Digital: AI data centers as growth driver
Lumentum Holdings Inc ('US55024U1097')
Lumentum Holdings is a beneficiary of demand for data center infrastructure
Bitdeer Technologies Group ('KYG114481008')
Bitdeer grows rapidly: hashrate doubled, but losses still rise significantly
Astera Labs Inc ('US04626A1034')
Astera Labs goes from insider tip to profit rocket! The AI connectivity star conquers billion-dollar markets!
Infineon Technologies AG ('DE0006231004')
Infineon convinces with green technology in a difficult environment
technotrans SE ('DE000A0XYGA7')
Technotrans: Ice cold back on the road to success
Hochtief AG ('DE0006070006')
Hochtief - Infrastructure investments worth billions are growth drivers.
Flex Ltd ('SG9999000020')
Flex: Contract manufacturer with power - Data center boom drives share to new heights.
Oracle Corp ('US68389X1054')
DEPOT BRIEFING: Meta Platforms (META;i) to build giga data center. Investments in AI infrastructure remain high.
Primoris Services Corp ('US74164F1030')
DEPOT BRIEFING: Meta Platforms (META;i) to build giga data center. Investments in AI infrastructure remain high.
Vistra Energy Corp ('US92840M1027')
DEPOT BRIEFING: Meta Platforms (META;i) to build giga data center. Investments in AI infrastructure remain high.
EQT Corp ('US26884L1098')
EQT becomes energy provider of the next AI era - Pennsylvania turns to gas instead of wind or solar
Amazon.com Inc ('US0231351067')
Strategy on multiple fronts! Amazon cools GPUs, invests in Anthropic and fills shopping carts during Prime Days!
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC ('IE00BKVD2N49')
Seagate - Irish to significantly improve margins and sales again in H2 with new technology.
Ecolab Inc ('US2788651006')
With 3D TRASAR Technology against water waste: How Ecolab is making data centers smarter.
Applied Optoelectronics Inc ('US03823U1025')
Applied Optoelectronics reports production milestone and growth in the data center sector
Data centers as growth engine: IES Holdings continues to grow strongly and shines with increasing margins!
WHERE KI CALCULATES, VERTIV COOLS: LIQUID COOLING SYSTEMS FUEL RECORD RESULTS AND A FORECAST INCREASE FOR 2025!
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE PROVIDER EMCOR BENEFITS FROM US INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAM AND DATA CENTER MAINTENANCE
COMFORT SYSTEMS BENEFITS FROM THE CONSTRUCTION OF NEW DATA CENTERS AND CHIP FACTORIES - EARNINGS RECORD IN THE SEASONALLY WEAKEST PERIOD!
In a small town in Louisiana, Mark Zuckerberg is having the largest artificial intelligence data center ever built for Meta on agricultural land. It is the size of 70 soccer pitches and cost 10 billion dollars.
Rayville is a town in north-eastern Louisiana in the USA that is experiencing a declining population. In the 2020 census, the population was 3347, down almost 21 percent from 4234 in 2000.
However, this is now likely to change. The state regulatory authorities approved a controversial plan to supply power to the largest artificial intelligence data center to date, which is being built by technology company Meta. This clears the way for the construction of three gas-fired power plants. This was reported by the portal "Nola".
The project is being built on a former agricultural area of around 70 soccer pitches. It is expected to cost around 10 billion dollars (approx. 8.6 billion euros). Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has announced plans to further expand the area so that it would be comparable to the size of Manhattan. The company is plunging headlong into the high-risk race for supremacy in the emerging AI sector.
"We chose Louisiana as the location for our largest data center to date for a variety of reasons, including excellent infrastructure connectivity, a strong labor base and a reliable power grid," said a Meta spokeswoman.
Criticism of Meta plans
However, the project in Richland Parish has met with criticism due to its enormous energy requirements, among other things. Davante Lewis was the only person to vote against the plan. He said the agreement leaves fundamental questions unanswered that are "too bitter to swallow", "Nola" quotes him as saying.

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