Dear friends, when I turned 18 this summer, I was given my junior custody account by my parents. At the moment it still holds the $DBK (-1,71%) with approx. -50%. I'm not sure at the moment whether I should sell it and invest in something I have more confidence in in terms of returns. What do you think?
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98Dax dividends fall
In 2025, the 40 DAX companies will be paying out seven percent less than last year, according to a forecast by Handelsblatt. Car manufacturer shareholders will be hit particularly hard.
Many DAX shareholders will have to adjust to lower dividends for the current financial year: According to a forecast by Handelsblatt, the 40 Dax-listed companies will pay out a combined €48.5 billion next spring. That would be seven percent less than in the previous year.
At the same time, 22 companies are likely to further increase their payouts and eight will reduce their dividends. But overall, there will be a decline for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic. This is mainly due to the car manufacturers, where the dividend total is likely to fall by almost 35% to around ten billion euros. This is due to falling profits at VW $VOW (+1,96%) , BMW $BMW (+0,87%) and Mercedes $MBG (-0,07%) due to poor sales figures in Europe and especially in the former boom country China.
In contrast, the sporting goods manufacturer Adidas $ADS (-0,15%) , the Deutsche Telekom
$DTE (-0,92%) and the arms manufacturer Rheinmetall $RHM (-0,78%) are increasing their dividends particularly sharply. This also applies to Deutsche Bank
$DBK (-1,71%) and Commerzbank $CBK (-1,64%) and the insurers Allianz $ALV (-0,66%) , Munich Re
$MUV2 (-1,1%) and Hannover Re
$HNR1 (-0,97%) . The healthcare group Fresenius $FRE (-0,84%) has not distributed anything for 2023, but is now planning a dividend again.
Commerzbank analyst Andreas Hürkamp sees a rotation: "In 2011, the automotive sector replaced utilities as the sector with the highest dividends. Now it is becoming apparent that after 14 years, insurers will be the new number one dividend payers in the DAX."
Handelsblatt
$DBK (-1,71%) Where could the journey take us by the end of the year? Please give us your assessment.
I promised to keep it forever and I'm excited to see what happens over the next few decades 🤣
From 18-year-old wannabe investment banker to successful private asset manager: my (bumpy) path to €300,000 in my custody account
Part 2 of X:
After a long road through the valley of tears: how buying MasterCard shares ended up
changed everything - This is probably the best way to describe the next stage of my investing life. After discussing my first steps on the stock market in the first part and realizing that I'm not the next Warren Buffett and that I've made just about every rookie mistake, after three years everything should finally be getting better, right? Unfortunately, that wasn't the case in 2017 and 2018. In fact, everything only got worse.
(Part 1: https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/PElWrODsmV) - Thank you for all the positive feedback!
Baseline & Spoilers:
From 2013 to 2016, I did a dual study program and earned a small salary every month. As I was still living at home, I was able to save and invest around €30,000 during these three years. I also added around € 5,000 in capital gains and dividends. My portfolio balance at the end of 2016 was therefore around €35,000. Despite my poor stock selection, this was a sum I could be happy with as a 23-year-old.
Now let's jump forward 24 months: at the end of 2018, I had a portfolio balance of around €40,000, just a measly €6,000 more than two years earlier. In these two years, there were additional price losses of €3,500. In other words, I had managed to lose €600 on the stock market in 5.5 years, while the S&P 500 gained over 50% in the same period - a remarkable (negative) achievement! Only dividends of over € 3,000 in these 5.5 years led to a positive return on the bottom line.
But now let's take a look at what went so massively wrong in 2017 and 2018.
Personal income situation:
After I completed my Bachelor's degree at the end of 2016, I knew that I didn't want to stay with my training company. There was a strong focus on sales, which I personally never wanted to do. I therefore left the company and decided to make a new career start in my early or almost mid-20s.
Before my studies, I really wanted to go into investment banking in New York, but after my studies I suddenly didn't know what I actually wanted to do: "self-employed would be cool", "do I do another Master's", "do I study something completely different again?" - these were my thoughts at the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017. As I was registered as unemployed during this time, I had to keep going to job interviews, which were more or less forced on me by the job center. These were mandatory, as otherwise the money could have been cut (times before the citizen's allowance 😉). My highlight was a job interview at Vorwerk, and I'm not kidding: for an open position as a vacuum cleaner salesmanwho is allowed to move from door to door.
In mid-2017, I was then offered a job in a completely different area that had absolutely nothing to do with my bachelor's degree in business administration and started all over again. I received around €600-700 in unemployment benefit for 9 months and then only a trainee salary of €800-900. Fortunately, I was able to continue living with my parents and invest around €200-300 in ETF savings plans every month. However, I was only able to save around €2,000 in total in 2017.
A few weeks went by and I quickly realized that I was once again not happy with my new professional situation. So I knew I had to leave again. This time, however, I didn't want to just quit and turn up at the job center again. So I forced myself to keep going until I had something in hand. The subject of a Master's degree came up again. But it was also by chance that I got in touch with my former employer.
Long story short: At the beginning of 2018, after 1.5 years, I signed a new contract with my former employer (DAX company), albeit not in a sales role, but in head office/administration. Even though the salary increased significantly, this involved moving to another city. In addition to the rental costs, I also had to furnish an apartment. As a result, there was not much room for investment in the stock market in 2018 either. In total, "only" €5,000 was invested in 2018.
Portfolio performance:
As already mentioned, 2017 and 2018 were an absolute flop in the portfolio. No significant investments and a lousy performance.
In hindsight, it's no wonder: at the time, my portfolio consisted of price rockets such as Hugo Boss $BOSS (+0,51%)
Deutsche Bank $DBK (-1,71%)
Macy's $M (+1,82%)
AT&T $T (-0,14%)
Verizon $VZ (-0,62%)
or Daimler $MBG (-0,07%) .
I was still convinced that tech and co. were far too expensive - I only bought what had a low P/E ratio and a (high) dividend yield. From a dividend perspective, that was great: in 2017, I received over €1,000 in dividends for the first time. I won't reach this mark again until 2020.
However, it also became clear to me that dividends are of little use if there are share price losses on the other side. On average over the two years, my return was a meagre ~2.5%. That was still more than was available on the call money account at the time - today such a return would hurt even more. But you don't have to sugarcoat it either: The performance was forgettable.
Bright spots:
But it wasn't all bad either: I took my first steps into crypto in the fall of 2017. Back then, there was a lot of Bitcoin hype for the first time. I had no idea about it yet, so I bought a participation certificate via the stock exchange as normal. I made a profit of almost €500 in just under three weeks. After that, the hype quickly died down again and I didn't get involved with Bitcoin and co. until the next hype in mid or late 2020.
If I had continued at the end of 2017 and bought Bitcoin regularly, my wealth would probably be a lot bigger today.
All in all, I can look back on the year
2017 but I can also defend myself a little bit: The performance in 2017 was around +7%, which was roughly in line with the performance of the MSCI World (+8%). Only the S&P 500 was significantly stronger at +20% (Trump and his "America First" policy have already had an impact here).
The year 2018 was not a good year on the stock markets overall, and most indices closed in the red. Nevertheless, my decline was greater than that of the S&P 500 and the MSCI World.
There were a number of negative factors in 2018, such as risks from the trade war between China and the USA, Brexit and global economic concerns. All of this was reflected in share prices, particularly in the final trading days of 2018. Once again, a shutdown was on the cards in the US because no agreement could or would be reached on raising the debt ceiling. Within a few days from mid-December, prices fell by 5-6%. This was the main factor behind the extremely poor performance over the two years.
The turning point:
Even though December 2018 was a bad month for the stock markets, in hindsight it was extremely good for me and my portfolio. In December 2018, I bought MasterCard $MA (-0,34%) and that was the turning point in my investing career.
I realized that my strategy (low P/E ratio, high dividend) would lead to nothing and discovered more and more the topic of "dividend growth" for me. MasterCard was the first stock to enter my portfolio that was in line with my new strategy.
Instead of a low P/E ratio of less than 10, the P/E ratio was suddenly over 30 and the dividend well below 1%, but growing strongly - just like sales and profits. A clear difference to companies like Macy's, Daimler and Hugo Boss in my portfolio.
My financial situation also improved significantly over the course of 2018. My net salary was around €2,500, and even though I had to pay rent and other costs, it became clear that I would be able to invest more again from 2019.
Asset development & return:
As described, the two years were too forgettable - but the learnings and my strategy change in hindsight extremely important for my future investing life.
Year
Deposit value
Return
2017 39.000€ +7%
2018 41.000€ -10%
Vermögensentwicklung 2016-2018:
Vermögensentwicklung 2013-2018:
Outlook:
I had arrived professionally and was ready to build up a completely new strategy in my portfolio. Everything was ready for 2019! And everything should finally get better in 2019. But there will be more big mistakes in the next part (Wirecard, corona hype, China), but above all there will finally be successes!
In part 3, I will discuss the years 2019 to 2021. We will then break the €100,000 mark and even come close to reaching €200,000.
Analyst updates, 14.11. 👇🏼
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- JEFFERIES raises the price target for TESLA from USD 195 to USD 300. Hold. $TSLA (-4,58%)
- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for INIT from EUR 49.50 to EUR 53. Buy $INIT
- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for DEUTSCHE BANK from EUR 21.10 to EUR 21.30. Buy. $DBK (-1,71%)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for AUTO1 from EUR 11 to EUR 12. Buy. $AG1 (+3,11%)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 43 to EUR 52. Buy. $ENR (+2,08%)
- BERENBERG raises the price target for SCOUT24 from EUR 83 to EUR 110. Buy. $G24 (+0,54%)
- GOLDMAN raises the target price for RIVIAN from USD 10 to USD 12. Neutral. $RIVN (+5,16%)
- GOLDMAN raises the price target for MOLLER-MAERSK from DKK 12000 to DKK 12300. Neutral. $MAERSK B (-0,66%)
- UBS raises the price target for CISCO from USD 55 to USD 62. Neutral. $CSCO (+0,68%)
⬇️⬇️⬇️
- WARBURG RESEARCH downgrades PORSCHE SE from Buy to Hold and lowers price target from EUR 60 to EUR 36. $PAH3 (+0,42%)
- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for EXASOL from EUR 6.30 to EUR 6. Buy. $EXL (+3,12%)
- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for BRENNTAG from EUR 75 to EUR 69. Buy. $BNR (+0,14%)
- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for INFINEON from EUR 43 to EUR 39. Buy. $IFX (-1,35%)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for VERBIO from EUR 20 to EUR 17. Hold. $VBK (-1,57%)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for JENOPTIK from EUR 45 to EUR 39. Buy. $JEN (+0,81%)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for ELRINGKLINGER from EUR 6 to EUR 4.50. Hold. $ZIL2 (+0,48%)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for BAYER from EUR 29 to EUR 23. Hold. $BAYN (+0,17%)
- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the target price for SAF-HOLLAND from EUR 30 to EUR 28. Buy. $SFQ (+3,43%)
- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the target price for RWE from EUR 40 to EUR 36. Buy. $RWE (-0,18%)
- METZLER lowers the price target for JUNGHEINRICH from EUR 42 to EUR 38. Buy. $JUN3 (-0,4%)
- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for RTL from EUR 33 to EUR 26.50. Equal-Weight. $RTLL (-0,66%)
- BERENBERG downgrades VESTAS from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from DKK 180 to DKK 120. $VWS (-2,71%)
⬆️⬆️⬆️
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises its price target for BMW from EUR 90 to EUR 95. Buy. $DBK (-1,71%)
- BERNSTEIN raises the price target for QUALCOMM from USD 200 to USD 215. Outperform. $QCOM (+2,48%)
- UBS raises the price target for LYFT from USD 13 to USD 18. Neutral. $LYFT (-0,92%)
- BARCLAYS raises the price target for SIEMENS HEALTH from EUR 60.50 to EUR 62.50. Overweight. $SHL (-1,01%)
- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for KONTRON from EUR 28 to EUR 28.40. Buy. $KTN (-1,58%)
- UBS upgrades KINGSPAN GROUP from Neutral to Buy. Target price 90 EUR. $KRX (-0,6%)
- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for ZEAL NETWORK from EUR 59 to EUR 64. Buy. $TIMA (-1,55%)
- GOLDMAN raises the price target for VONOVIA from EUR 42.70 to EUR 43.70. Buy. $VNA (+2,37%)
- BARCLAYS raises the price target for AHOLD DELHAIZE from EUR 30 to EUR 31. Equal-Weight. $AD (-0,59%)
- BARCLAYS raises the target price for FMC from EUR 38.50 to EUR 39. Equal-Weight. $FMC (+3,73%)
- JPMORGAN raises the target price for COMMERZBANK from EUR 18 to EUR 18.40. Overweight. $CBK (-1,64%)
- JPMORGAN raises the target price for PUMA SE from EUR 40 to EUR 44. Neutral. $PUM (-0,32%)
- JPMORGAN raises the target price for JUST EAT TAKEAWAY from GBP 13.96 to GBP 14.15. Overweight. $TKWY (+0,68%)
⬇️⬇️⬇️
- JEFFERIES downgrades PALANTIR from Hold to Underperform. Target price USD 28. $PLTR (+6,35%)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for NOVO NORDISK from DKK 1100 to DKK 1000. Buy. $NOVO B (-17,74%)
- RBC lowers the price target for NIKE from 82 USD to 80 USD. Sector Perform. $NKE (-6,85%)
- ODDO BHF downgrades ASM INTERNATIONAL to Outperform. Target price EUR 960. $ASM (+2,02%)
- KEPLER CHEUVREUX downgrades HENSOLDT from Buy to Hold. Target price EUR 34. $HAG (-0,41%)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for ZALANDO from EUR 40 to EUR 36. Buy. $ZAL (-0,7%)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for VESTAS from DKK 165 to DKK 150. Hold. $VWS (-2,71%)
- BOFA downgrades SIEMENS ENERGY from Buy to Neutral. Target price EUR 40. $ENR (+2,08%)
- METZLER lowers the price target for VONOVIA from EUR 28.50 to EUR 28. Sell. $VNA (+2,37%)
- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for TEAMVIEWER from EUR 18 to EUR 15.50. Overweight. $TMV (-2,93%)
- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for KLÖCKNER & CO from EUR 6 to EUR 5.70. Buy. $KCOB
- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the target price for NORMA GROUP from EUR 32 to EUR 27. Buy. $NOEJ (-1,36%)
- WARBURG downgrades EDAG ENGINEERING from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 13 to EUR 9.50. $ED4 (+0,57%)
- LBBW lowers the price target for ALLGEIER from EUR 24 to EUR 20. Buy. $AEIA
- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for HENKEL from EUR 79 to EUR 77. Equal-Weight. $HEN (+0,54%)
- BERENBERG lowers the price target for KRONES from EUR 157 to EUR 154. Buy. $KRN (+0,17%)
Week in review 26.10.
New 52-week highs or all-time highs: Gold, Silver, Booz Allen Hamilton, Boyd Gaming, Carvana, Endeavour Silver, GE Vernova, Iron Mountain, L3Harris, Philip Morris, Reddit, SAP, Sea Ltd, Teledyne Netflix, Nvidia, Microstrategy, Palantir PayPal, SoFi, Wells Fargo, Welltower, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
Palantir (+170%) points to 2024 Vistra (+231%) and Nvidia (+202%) the third-best performer in the S&P 500
Tesla +20% after good quarterly figures, best trading day in 11 years, cheaper new model coming in H1/2025, +9% since the beginning of the year
New Apple MacBooks with M4, Mac mini and iMac will be presented next Monday, Apple shares +26% since the beginning of the year
McDonald's E.coli - bacteria in burger meat, one dead and several injured, shares fall 8%, +1% since the beginning of the year
SAP with good quarterly figures, +61% since the beginning of the year
Deutsche Bank with good quarterly figures, +26% since the beginning of the year
Mercedes with poor quarterly figures due to weak business in China, -9% since the beginning of the year
Microsoft-shareholders want to vote on Bitcoin purchase for the balance sheet at the Annual General Meeting in December, Bitcoin +59% since the beginning of the year
Qualcomm and ARM are in a license dispute over the Nuvia takeover, ARM +112% since the beginning of the year, Qualcomm +23% since the beginning of the year
Lockheed Martin with good quarterly figures, +24% since the beginning of the year
L3Harris with good quarterly figures, +24% since the beginning of the year
RTX (Raytheon) with good quarterly figures, sales and profit forecasts raised, +48% since the beginning of the year
UPS with good quarterly figures, -9% since the beginning of the year
Texas Instruments with good quarterly figures, +25% since the beginning of the year
Coca Cola with good quarterly figures, +15% since the beginning of the year
IBM with strong profit growth but disappointed sales, +36% since the beginning of the year
Munich RE Profit warning due to major losses, +24% since the beginning of the year
Starbucks has suspended its forecast for the coming financial year as new CEO Brian Niccol seeks to restructure the company but increases dividend, +5% year-to-date
Kering with profit warning as Gucci weakens in China, -40% since the beginning of the year
Enphase Energy with poor figures, share falls -12%, -37% since the beginning of the year
Traffic light government decides exit tax on ETF assets from €500,000, savings and independent investing are penalized even more, prosperity and freedom are made more difficult and hindered
Loopholes in the rent control for furnished apartments remain
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#steuern
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you can't do anything 🫡
Deutsche Bank Q3 2024 $DBK (-1,71%)
Financial performance:
Deutsche Bank reported Group revenues of EUR 7.5 billion in Q3 2024, an increase of 5% compared to the same quarter last year. Net profit amounted to EUR 1.7 billion, up 39% year-on-year, driven by a partial release of the provision for litigation related to the Postbank acquisition. Pre-tax profit amounted to 2.3 billion euros, an increase of 31% compared to the previous year. Adjusted costs were held at EUR 5 billion for the third consecutive quarter and are in line with the 2024 guidelines.
Balance sheet analysis:
The CET1 ratio was 13.8%, indicating strong organic capital generation. Risk-weighted assets amounted to 34 billion euros, including 13 billion euros from operational risks. The leverage ratio remained stable at 4.6%. The liquidity ratio amounted to 135%, above the target of around 130%, which indicates strong liquidity.
Profit and loss account:
Revenues were driven by a strong performance in Investment Banking, with revenues up 11% year-on-year, particularly in Fixed Income & Currencies (FIC) and Origination & Advisory (O&A). Corporate Bank revenues remained stable year-on-year as growth in commissions and fees offset the normalization of deposit margins. Private Bank revenues remained essentially unchanged, with higher income from investment products offset by lower interest income.
Cash flow analysis:
Operating cash flow was supported by strong revenue and cost discipline. The Bank continued to invest in technology and business growth while maintaining a focus on cost efficiency. Investments in capital expenditure and strategic investments were aligned with the Bank's growth initiatives, particularly in the corporate and investment banks.
Key figures and profitability:
The after-tax return on tangible equity (RoTE) amounted to 10.2 % in the third quarter of 2024, compared to 7 % in the same period of the previous year. The cost/income ratio improved from 73% to 69% year-on-year, excluding the Postbank legal disputes. The bank's profitability ratios indicate a strong operating performance and effective cost management.
Segment analysis:
Investment Banking was the standout performer, with revenue up 11% year-on-year, driven by strong credit trading and emerging market revenues. The Corporate Bank maintained stable revenues as growth in fee income offset the normalization of margins. The Private Bank had to contend with higher financing costs, which had a negative impact on interest income, but was able to grow income from investment products.
Competitive analysis:
Deutsche Bank's strategic investments in its core businesses, particularly in investment banking, have strengthened its market position. The bank's focus on capital-light business and technology investments supports its competitiveness. However, the challenging economic environment in Germany and geopolitical risks pose potential challenges.
Forecasts and management comments:
Management is confident of achieving the revenue forecast of EUR 30 billion for 2024 and EUR 32 billion for 2025. The Bank's strategic focus on cost efficiency and revenue growth through its Global Hausbank strategy is expected to drive future performance. Management emphasized the importance of a strong capital position and liquidity.
Risks and opportunities:
The main risks include macroeconomic challenges in Germany, geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes. Opportunities lie in the Bank's strategic investments in technology and capital-light business, which are expected to drive growth. The Bank's strong capital position and liquidity provide a buffer against potential risks.
Summary and strategic implications:
Deutsche Bank demonstrates financial stability and growth opportunities, supported by strategic investments and effective cost management. The bank's focus on capital-light businesses and technology investments positions it well for future growth. Nevertheless, macroeconomic and geopolitical risks remain key challenges. Overall, the bank is on track to achieve its financial targets for 2025, with a clear focus on increasing shareholder value. Still not a case for me. The bank has recurring problems, constantly makes mistakes and is simply not worth enough for its size. What's more, it's simply not in heaven in Europe and Germany. Nevertheless, it is on the watch list.
Positive statements:
- Deutsche Bank's liquidity ratios remain strong, with a liquidity coverage ratio of 135%, which is above the target of around 130%.
- The corporate bank was able to increase the number of orders won from multinational clients by 18% compared to the first nine months of the previous year.
- In Asset Management, assets under management grew by 67 billion euros to 963 billion euros to date, supported by strong inflows into various product lines.
- The Investment Bank's revenues in the third quarter were up 11% year-on-year, driven by improvements in Fixed Income & Currencies (FIC) and Origination & Advisory (O&A).
- Deutsche Bank's CET1 ratio of 13.8% reflects strong organic capital generation and positions the bank well for planned capital distributions.
Negative statements:
- The decline in net interest income (NII) was due to continued high funding costs due to minimum reserves and a negative episodic effect from the loan books.
- Loan loss provisions amounted to EUR 494 million in the quarter, compared to EUR 245 million in the same quarter last year, mainly due to Privatbank.
- The German economy is expected to grow by only 0.2% in 2024, with stagnation very likely, impacting Deutsche Bank's domestic market.
- The application of the EU carve-out had a negative impact on the CET1 capital ratio of around 68 basis points as at September 30, 2024.
- Stage 3 loan loss provisions increased quarter-on-quarter to EUR 482 million, mainly driven by Privatbank, including the transitional effects of the Postbank integration.
Zusammenfassung Earnings heute morgen 👇
$IBE (+1,12%) | Iberdrola Q3 2024 Earnings
Revenue €10.48B (est 13.81B)
Net Income €1.34B (est.€1.15B)
Boosts Interim Dividend By 14% To €0.23/share
To Hold Next Capital Markets Day In Autumn 2025
$RBGLY (-0,43%) | Reckitt Benckiser Q3 2024 Earnings
Revenue $3.46 (est $3.39B)
Volume -1.4% (est -3.13%)
Price/Mix (est +0.9%)
Like-For-Like Sales -0.5% (est -1.84%)
Still Sees FY Like-For-Like Sales To Like-For-Like Sales (est -0.5%)
$HEIA (-1,33%) | Heineken Q3 2024 Earnings
Adj Revenue $7.68B (est $7.78B)
Organic Adj Net Rev +3.3% (est +5.38%)
Org. Beer Volume +0.7% (est +2.02%)
Sees FY Adj Oper Profit +4% to +8%
$ROG (+0,46%) | Roche Holding Q3 24 Earnings:
- Pharma Sales CHF11.62B (est CHF11.43B)
- Net Sales CHF15.14B (est CHF14.93B)
- Confirms FY Outlook
$DBK (-1,71%) | Deutsche Bank Q3 24 Earnings:
- PreTax Profits EU2.26B (est EU2.02B)
- Net Rev EU7.50B (est EU7.31B)
- FIC Sales & Trading Rev EU2.1B (est EU2.01B)
- Seeking Authorisation For Buybacks
23.10.2024
Arm revokes Qualcomm's architecture license + Exciting figures today + McDonald's falls after E. coli cases in the USA + Solar shares in free fall: Enphase Energy disappoints + Deutsche Bank's profits jump thanks to Postbank settlement
The legal dispute that has been simmering for two years between Arm $ARM (-2,66%) and Qualcomm $QCOM (+2,48%) has been escalated to a new level with the recent withdrawal of the architecture license by Arm. In essence, it is about the takeover of Nuvia and the implementation at Qualcomm derived from its CPU design as the Snapdragon X Elite.
The share price of McDonald's $MCD (-0,31%) plummeted after the chain's restaurants in several US states were linked to an outbreak of E. coli bacteria. According to the CDC, one elderly person died and ten were hospitalized. A total of 49 cases have been reported in ten states, most of them in Colorado and Nebraska. The share price of the world's largest fast food chain fell by almost ten percent at times in early after-hours trading in the US on Tuesday. However, the stock was recently able to recover somewhat from this heavy loss and ended after-hours trading down six percent at around 296 dollars. However, McDonald's shares had also risen sharply in recent weeks, with the share price hitting another record high of almost 318 dollars on Monday. According to McDonald's, the trigger is suspected to be chopped onions, which are only used in the Quarter Pounder, the American equivalent of the Hamburger Royal. They came from a supplier that supplies three distribution centers. In five states and parts of seven others, the Quarter Pounder is now being temporarily withdrawn from supply.
Enphase Energy Inc. $ENPH (+6,64%) generated net sales of USD 380.873 million in the third quarter of 2024 (previous quarter: USD 303.458 million), a decline of 30.9% compared to the previous year. The Californian solar inverter provider's negative revenue growth thus slowed further. In the previous quarter, this was still down 57.3% on the previous year (Q1 2024: down 63.7%, Q4 2023: down 58.2%, Q3: up 13.2%, Q2: up 34.1%, Q1: up 64%). Enphase Energy's gross margin in the same period was around 46.8% (previous quarter: 45.2%, previous year: 47.5%). The solar technology company's operating result fell to plus USD 49.788 million in the reporting period (previous quarter: USD 1.799 million, previous year: USD 117.989 million). This left the US company with a net result of USD 45.762 million (previous year: USD 113.953 million) or (diluted) earnings per share (US GAAP) of USD 0.33 (previous year: USD 0.80).
The back and forth in the legal dispute over Postbank $DPB-takeover has had a negative impact on Deutsche Bank $DBK (-1,71%) Deutsche Bank's profits in the third quarter. Because the DAX-listed group was able to partially release a provision from the second quarter, shareholders received almost 1.5 billion euros on the bottom line. This was 42 percent more than a year earlier and more than analysts had expected on average. CEO Christian Sewing also considered buying back more shares when presenting the interim results on Wednesday. He expressed confidence that he would be able to distribute more capital to shareholders than originally planned. In the summer, Deutsche Bank still had worse news in store. Due to a provision of 1.3 billion euros in the Postbank legal dispute, it had even slipped into the red. However, following an agreement with the majority of the plaintiffs from among the former Postbank shareholders, it has now been able to release 440 million euros of this. The Management Board also reported positive developments in day-to-day business. CFO James von Moltke confirmed the target of generating income of 30 billion euros this year. The management also believes the bank is on track with its targets for 2025. Above all, the return on tangible equity should then reach more than 10 percent. In the third quarter, it was even slightly above this mark at 10.2 percent. Without the reversal of the provision, however, it would only have amounted to 7.6%.
Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures
ex-dividend of individual stocks
Lowe's Companies 1.15 US
Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
12:30 AT&T | GE Vernova quarterly figures
12:55 Coca-Cola quarterly figures
13:30 Boeing | General Dynamics quarterly figures
22:05 Tesla | Align Technology | Whirlpool quarterly figures
22:08 IBM quarterly figures
22:30 T-Mobile US quarterly figures
Untimed: Boeing union "International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Union", vote on offer regarding wage increase
Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
07:00 Deutsche Bank | DWS | Amadeus Fire | Akzo Nobel | Kühne & Nagel | Volvo Car quarterly figures | Roche 3Q sales
07:20 Air Liquide sales 3Q
07:30 Atoss Software 9 months results
08:00 Deutsche Bank PK | Lloyds Banking Quarterly Figures | Reckitt Benckiser | Heineken Trading Update 3Q
09:30 Iberdrola 9 months results
10:00 Flatexdegiro analyst conference on the quarterly figures
11:00 Deutsche Bank Analyst Conference
14:00 Deutsche Börse Analyst and Investor Conference on the quarterly figures
17:40 Michelin | Kering Sales 9 months
17:50 Carrefour 3Q sales
Untimed: Givaudan end of investor day (since 22.10.)
Economic data
08:00 DE: Leading indicator foreign trade on exports to non-EU countries | Turnover in the service sector
14:00 DE: Deutsche Börse analyst and investor conference on the quarterly figures
15:00 US: Fed Governor Bowman, speech at the Philadelphia Fed's Annual Fintech Conference | IMF Fiscal Monitor
16:00 EU: Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (flash estimate) October FORECAST: -12.5 previous: -12.9
16:00 US: Existing Home Sales September FORECAST: -0.5% yoy previous: -2.5% yoy
16:30 US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from the Energy Information Administration (EIA)
20:00 US: Fed, Beige Book
If the judge interprets this as contempt of court and accuses ARM of vigilante justice, things could quickly look grim.
I think Qualcomm could really be a stock that will benefit greatly if Trump becomes president. If only because the Intel takeover will then be a done deal.
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