Ethereum

$ETH (+8,85%) and sell everything in $BTC (+4,16%) shift everything into? I have slowly given up hope that Ethereum will crack the 5000$ mark.

Marc Rowan: Billionaire, blockchain advocate and leading candidate for the US Treasury Department

Summary

Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management, a company with over $700 billion in assets under management, is considered a leading candidate for U.S. Secretary of the Treasury. Rowan emphasizes the importance of blockchain technology for the future of the financial sector, but remains skeptical of cryptocurrencies as direct investments (Bloomberg, 2022). Among the leading candidates, he seems to be the most conservative regarding speculative coins and Bitcoin. At the same time, all leading candidates are considered bullish for the stock markets, as these are seen as a key benchmark for President Trump's economic success.

Who is Marc Rowan?

Marc Rowan is co-founder of Apollo Global Management, one of the largest private equity firms in the world.

• Assets: Estimated at 6.5 billion US dollars.
• Role at Apollo: Took over as CEO in 2021 after co-founder Leon Black stepped down.
• Achievements: Rowan was the driving force behind the acquisition of Athene Holding Ltd, an insurer that gave Apollo a leading position in the Wall Street market. He is recognized for his strategic thinking and innovation.

Rowan's position on blockchain and cryptocurrencies

Marc Rowan has made several statements on blockchain technology and emphasized its importance for the future of the financial markets.

• Quote: "Fintech is here to stay. Blockchain is here to stay" (Bloomberg, 2022).
• Apollo has been working with Figure Technologies on blockchain solutions for the financial industry since 2023. Digital mortgages have already been processed via blockchain, and Apollo is increasingly shifting securitizations to this technology.
• Quote: "We are moving our securitizations to the blockchain. We are betting on challengers to the financial system" (Bloomberg, 2022).

Rowan recognizes the potential of cryptocurrencies, but remains cautious:

• Quote: "The ecosystem that is emerging around crypto is simply amazing. But crypto itself? I think the jury is still out" (Bloomberg, 2022).
• Apollo has partnered with crypto companies such as Anchorage Digital, but has not offered direct crypto investments to clients.

Rowan's vision for NFTs and fintech

Marc Rowan sees the technologies behind NFTs as important innovations that could usher in profound changes to the financial system.

• Quote: "Many of the technologies supporting NFTs are pioneering changes to our financial system. Ignoring these developments would be a big mistake" (Bloomberg, 2022).
• Thus, it becomes clearer that Rowan does not see NFTs themselves, but the underlying technical innovations (e.g. blockchain infrastructure and platforms) as transformative elements.

Conclusion

Marc Rowan combines economic expertise with a technological vision. His recognition of blockchain technology and his critical stance on cryptocurrencies could shape US financial policy. While he advocates the transformative power of fintech, he remains cautious about speculative areas such as cryptocurrencies $BTC (+4,16%) or $ETH (+8,85%) cautious. His potential appointment as Treasury Secretary would have a lasting impact not only on the financial sector, but also on the regulation of innovative technologies.

Betting market: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary/will-trump-nominate-marc-rowan-for-treasury-secretary?tid=1732085116779

Source:

Bloomberg (2022): https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/insights/markets/apollos-rowan-warns-rivals-to-ignore-blockchain-at-their-peril/

I wanted to ask for your opinion...

I own 1 $ETH (+8,85%) and I'm wondering if I shouldn't rather exchange everything for $BTC (+4,16%) now or at least a large part and something in $SOL (+9,01%) ?

Crypto - Partial sales | Taxes

I expect a major correction at the psychologically important $100,000 mark at $BTC (+4,16%) or in Q1 at the latest (overall market).

This will also affect $SOL (+9,01%) , $ETH (+8,85%) and $AVAX (+5,19%) - my other positions. So I will start to realize partial profits.

My total crypto portfolio currently stands at just over €85,000, and I want to take around 15% of that (approx. €12,750) in profits.

-> I plan to reinvest these later as a futures position with a small leverage of 2-3x.

• I have a non-assessment certificate for 2024 (tax exemption for interest and distributions).

• However, as I have no active income, I am unsure what my personal income tax rate is - at which crypto gains are taxable under the one-year holding period.

My first major positions are expected to be tax-free from June/July 2025 (approx. €15,000-20,000).

Does this make sense, considering the rather large portion in call money (70k), which is also intended for subsequent purchases?

Does anyone have experience or a contact who is well versed in the tax treatment of crypto gains?

Credits @Testo-Investor 🫶🏼

I have now finished the Crypto experiment. I had bought the position $ETH (+8,85%) shortly before the changeover and since then it has basically only been in the red. Now I was able to exit with a slight plus and have shifted the money into my All World ETF. 👍

+++ How much gold makes sense in a portfolio? +++

Hello everyone,

At the beginning of 2024, I started to include gold in my portfolio and opted for EUWAX Gold II
$EWG2 (+2,63%) in the process.

The diversification was particularly important to me in order to make myself less dependent on fluctuations in the stock market and global political events and to ensure long-term value retention.

For me, this is a sensible building block in any portfolio.

For me, diversification now also includes cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin
$BTC (+4,16%) and Ethereum
$ETH (+8,85%)which have also made a significant contribution to increasing my portfolio.

Since the beginning of the year gold an impressive increase in value of almost 30 % achieved.

For me, gold and cryptocurrencies remain a long-term investment.

Current gold-all-time highs:

-In Euro: € 2,567.11

-in US dollars: $2,787.54

(Reached on 30.10.2024 -closing prices)

Diversification ⚙️

This always raises the question for me:

How much gold in a portfolio actually makes sense?

There are different strategies for this, which depend heavily on the individual investment strategy, risk appetite and market conditions.

Many experts, investment banks and investment advisors recommend a gold share of around 5-10 % of the portfolio.

Strategies for the ideal gold weighting in the portfolio

1. classic diversification (5-10%)

One allocation of 5-10 % in gold is considered a proven approach to diversify a portfolio.

(Allocation refers to the strategic distribution of assets across asset classes).

-Protection against systematic risks:

Gold often moves in the opposite direction to equities and bonds. In times of crisis, gold remains stable or increases in value.

-Limited opportunity costs:

A moderate proportion of gold hardly affects the growth potential of the portfolio, as the majority is invested in higher-yielding asset classes such as equities or bonds.

-Global hedging:

Gold not only protects against local market risks, but also against global uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions or economic crises.

Example of a balanced portfolio:

-55 % equities and ETFs

-30% bonds

-10% gold

-5% cryptocurrencies

2. defensive strategy (10-20 %)

A gold share of 10-20 % is particularly suitable for conservative investors or in times of heightened uncertainty.

-Focus on value preservation:

Gold offers stability in turbulent market phases or when risk appetite is low.

-Hedging against specific risks: A higher proportion of gold makes sense, particularly in the event of high inflation, currency devaluations or geopolitical conflicts.

Example of a defensive portfolio:

-40 % bonds

-30% equities and ETFs

-20% gold

-10% other real assets (e.g. real estate funds)

3. tactical allocation

A flexible, tactical allocation can make sense for experienced investors.

-Anti-cyclical investing:

Gold holdings are increased when risks (e.g. fears of recession) increase and reduced when markets are stable.

-Taking advantage of market cycles:

Active management makes it possible to benefit from fluctuations in the gold price.

Example:

-Stable times: 5 % gold

-In times of crisis: up to 15 % gold

Important: This strategy requires in-depth market knowledge and continuous monitoring of the economic situation and a quicker response.

Forms of gold investment

-#1 Physical gold (coins, bars): Direct control and safekeeping, but involves storage costs e.g. for a safe deposit box.

-#2 ETFs/ETCs: Easy trading and low costs.

My favorite: EUWAX Gold II
$EWG2 (+2,63%)

EUWAX Gold II is an exchange-traded commodity (ETC) from the Stuttgart Stock Exchange that securitizes the ownership of one gram of gold from a 100-gram gold bar.

On request, the physical gold can even be delivered to the exact gram.

A particular advantage of this product is the free delivery from a quantity of 100 grams within Germany.

EUWAX Gold II also impresses with its tax structure:

As it is treated like physical gold, capital gains are tax-free after a holding period of more than one year.

In addition, there is generally no tax deduction when selling via banks or online brokers.

🔖 Savings plan options with:

- Scalable Capital

- Comdirect

- Consorsbank

- DKB Bank

3.Gold mining shares: Higher risk, but potentially higher returns.

My favorite in the gold mining sector:
Newmont $NEM (+0,65%)
🔑

Newmont is the only gold company in the S&P 500 and scores with strategic acquisitions and low production costs (all-in sustaining costs) of currently 1.620 USD per ounce.

I hope you enjoyed this insight! I'll keep working on exciting articles for you.

How do you weight gold in your portfolio? 💬

Best regards

Michael

i won't cash out my trump bet until january at the earliest, when i have my LLC and it's tax free. Until then, bitcoin where? 🦚

80/20 etf my ass.

all in $BTC (+4,16%) & $ETH (+8,85%)

My crypto exit strategy after almost a decade of crypto experience:

Before I go into my crypto strategy specifically, I would like to make it clear that crypto lives strongly on faith (momentum: it rises because it rises). That's why I think you should only invest money here that you can write off/lose immediately. A predefined strategy like the following can help you to act rationally and leave emotions aside.

Reading time: felt like an hour

Total risk of loss:

Choosing to run self-custody (own wallet) has many advantages, but the massive disadvantage that if you lose your private keys, you can't call BTC customer service and suffer a total loss. Also, there will be no new Bitcoin. It takes exactly one minute to create such a "new Bitcoin" and doesn't cost a single euro. What's more, it will be teeming with scams and ICOs - so only trust the marketcap! 99.99% of all projects will die in the long term. The higher the market cap, the more likely it is to survive, but this is never guaranteed - even BTC could go to 0 from one day to the next.

The same goes for yield on your cryptos. In principle, creating a decentralized market is a good idea, and the yields often look very attractive. But often the coins you get as rewards are massively inflated. In addition, the risk of bugs in the code is often underestimated. The latter can also lead to total losses. Impermanent loss must also be considered here, but that would be a topic for a separate post. Returns always have something to do with risk and information arbitrage: stay in the game > outperform the game.

Trading:

For 99%, it's probably smarter to take a HODL (i.e. buy-and-hold) approach with DCA/savings plan if necessary to build a position. However, this should not be done during hype phases, but when nobody is interested in crypto anymore. Trading may seem very attractive and cool, but the majority will underperform compared to the B&H strategy. Apart from the gray hair and fun in life with much more important things than charts that you save yourself.

My assessment:

In general, I think the market and performance have changed, especially due to ETFs and the infrastructure that has emerged in recent years. As a result, I think that initially this cycle could be strongly driven by institutional investors - not because the number is so high, but because they are simply very well capitalized and even a small exposure brings in a lot of capital.

I think that the psychological characteristics will remain the same: First rises $BTC (+4,16%) then the "better" Shitcoins, until in the end everything that hasn't gone up yet goes up. When I write Shitcoins, please don't feel offended - I'll explain later why I'm doing this. I hold some myself. Just a brief definition of how I differentiate between less qualitative Shitcoins and qualitative ones:

• Is there a medallion figure who is good at telling stories or talking? (Example: Charles Hoskinson at Cardano $ADA (-2,96%) similar with Ripple $XRP (+1,16%) I would say)
• Is the technology really decentralized?
• How are tokenomics designed? (This is why I always look at the market cap and not the price).
• Does it bring added value beyond the buzzword blockchain?
• How is coin distribution divided up (whale wallets)?

Cycle within a cycle:

I also think that we have already gone through this mini cycle once in the current cycle, but that it will repeat itself throughout the momentum cycle and the price swings will increase in favor of shitcoins. My theory behind this is that when BTC has risen, the excess return is sought, and that when the returns attract the new people, they often have no idea. The "stupid money" then flows increasingly into shitcoins without substance (without wishing to offend anyone, this is how I have come to use the term). That's why I also want to use the Shitcoin performance as an exit indicator.

Exit strategy:

I will sell off a maximum of 50% of my crypto holdings, as for me the performance expectation is around 50% of my investment and 50% BTC is a kind of risk hedge against the centralized financial system. I will carry out the sale in tranches of 25% each. I will use a grid bot for this. I will start as soon as the crypto share exceeds 25% of my total portfolio. I will not invest new capital in crypto for the time being, but will only expand my Shitcoin position by using a slight leverage on my margin account depending on the phase. When I talk about leverage, I don't mean 25x, but rather 1.5x - as the additional return is worth less to me in favor of my security. My motto is always: stay in the game > outperform the game.

In the end, only BTC will remain until the next hype!

My personal shitcoin sector favorites:

I think DeFi will perform strongly as substantially more security could be created in the next 6-12 months due to potential regulatory certainty. In general, however, I suspect that it doesn't really matter which coin you buy, as past experience has shown that towards the end of the cycle people will buy anything that hasn't yet made 10x - regardless of whether there is any fundamental added value.

With regard to L1, I think that $ETH (+8,85%) is currently undervalued. I see reasons for this in the fact that Vitalik Buterin is a miserable salesman (which I actually find positive), and Solana $SOL (+9,01%) can offer much lower fees at the expense of security. The ease of programming allows more dapps to be created. In general, I think that ETH is more in line with the basic idea of crypto than Solana, although it should be mentioned that Solana has gained massive adoption - for me a sign that most people have no idea what they are actually buying.

I think the SUI architecture is promising in principle, but I wouldn't overweight it - but I'm not too deep into the subject either.

L2 makes a lot of sense for ETH, but will only outperform when transaction costs are astronomical again. In general, I see transaction costs as a very good market indicator for timing as well as leverage in the market.

Memecoins:

The probability that Dogecoin $DOGE (+2,25%) continues to rise is high in my opinion. That's why I'm holding a small position. Especially if Elon Musk pushes the coin again, strong price movements could follow in the short term. If that happens, I will also buy less capitalized memecoins in the short term. However, you always have to keep this in mind: It only takes a few minutes and a few hundred dollars on networks like Solana to buy a new $PEPE (+10,7%) , $SHIB (+3,04%) or other meme coin. Such coins are often based purely on hype and momentum

Long-term outlook:

I think we are no longer early in crypto, but early in usability and institutional exposure. Only now is the real value being created as products can be used and regulatory certainty increases. I hope that the volatility of BTC will decrease due to the increasing market capitalization and that in the long run it will reflect modern digital gold rather than a risk-on asset.

In conclusion, I think that the AI theme has run its course and crypto could be the new risk-on draw - at least in the short term, as this is also fundamentally justified by potential regulation. Nevertheless, I think that AI currently offers greater fundamental added value in terms of productivity. Crypto is not really needed as long as the centralized services or fiat currencies work. Also, the majority actually has 0 added value and is only riding the crypto wave to attract capital. 99.9% do not correspond to the basic idea.

If a Blackswan event occurs, everything will be sold off in the short term, especially risk-on assets. That's why I always hold cash (currently even 20%) so that I have liquidity to buy. You should never be so naive as to believe that you are 100% right, but always stay humble, think in terms of probabilities and practice risk management!

To conclude once again:

stay in the game > outperform the game. There will be no new Bitcoin, I dare to promise that haha - everything else is speculative. The term "Shitcoin" should help you to always be aware that it is not driven by fundamental value, but by profit expectations!

Everything here is highly speculative and not investment advice, just my humble assessment after a good 8-9 years in the crypto market. Everyone please do what you think is right and don't judge others. "The only thing I can say with 100% certainty is that I can't say anything with 100% certainty": Did Einstein say that?

Congratulations on making it this far and not having a TikTok attention span. Basically, I wrote the whole thing for myself because it @JJJ inspired me to write down more of my thoughts in order to continue making rational decisions - thank you for that! Thanks also to @stefan_21 for the daily BTC education. If I'm honest: BTC is the real deal 😉

Additionally, it's important to make your investment decisions independently of any Youtube Fin or crypto influencers. For the most part, they are only out to push you into trading, as they earn money when you trade with their affiliate links on any exchanges. In general, this financial and especially crypto influencer scene is very, very lucrative due to the commissions - you should always be aware of that!

It has also helped me enormously to deal with very boring topics in order to draw conclusions about the exciting topics:

Bond market, interest rates, especially liquidity, interest rate spreads, fiscal policy, financial psychology, momentum, leverage, to name a few topics.

Of course, not everyone has the privilege of having the time to deal with these topics, but if you do, I can only recommend it. Not because I want to trade volatility or overweight bonds, but because it provides a very good understanding of the overall market and is a basic building block for risk management.

I don't know if anyone still reads here - never mind. Even if not, it has helped me. I've definitely written down enough thoughts for today, I should call my mom again.

Why $BTC (+4,16%) cannot be copied and why Bitcoin is fundamentally different from altcoins (870619)

Since the invention of Bitcoin in 2009, there have been countless imitators - from Bitcoin Cash to Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Diamond, Bitcoin SV and many more. But despite all these copies, Bitcoin itself remains the undisputed original and dominates the market capitalization of the entire crypto market.

The questions many may be asking themselves are:

• Why has no other project yet managed to replace or even seriously threaten Bitcoin?
• How can it be claimed that Bitcoin is absolutely limited when it could be copied an infinite number of times?

I will try to give you the answer to this question in today's article.

Bitcoin has often been copied, but never replaced

Bitcoin is an open source project - anyone can copy the source code, adapt it and create their own cryptocurrency. And that is exactly what has happened - countless times. The number of Bitcoin forks (spin-offs) is enormous. Especially in 2017, during the crypto boom, numerous "Bitcoin versions" emerged, including

• Bitcoin Cash
• Bitcoin Gold
• Bitcoin Diamond
• Bitcoin Pizza (yes, this really exists😂)
• etc.

Nevertheless, these projects never took off. The reason? It is not enough to copy the code of Bitcoin - the essence of Bitcoin lies much deeper - not just in the code.

What makes Bitcoin unique

(1) Decentralization

Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that is actually completely decentralized. There is no entity, no company and no leading personality that controls Bitcoin. Other projects, even the imitators, often fail because of their dependence on central developers or organizations.

(2) Network effects

Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency and has built up by far the largest ecosystem of users, nodes and miners over the years. New projects have no chance of catching up.

Example: If you want to communicate with a friend, you use a widespread network such as WhatsApp or Telegram. There's no point in developing your own app if nobody uses it. It's the same with Bitcoin - the network effect cannot be copied.

(3) The hashrate as an energy shield

The security of Bitcoin is based on the computing power (hashrate) that protects the network. Bitcoin is the most secure computer network in the world - stronger than any other blockchain project. No altcoin can mobilize nearly as much energy to secure the network against attacks. The more energy flows into the network, the more difficult it becomes to attack Bitcoin.

An attacker alone would have to mobilize more energy than the rest of the world to compromise the network - which is practically impossible.

Physics instead of just computer science: why Bitcoin cannot be copied

A common misconception is that Bitcoin is just a technical project. In reality, its strength lies not only in computer sciencebut also in physics - more precisely in the energy generated by mining.

As a result, Bitcoin has an anchor in the real world, which also ensures that the network continues to decentralize. Energy is only ever available to a limited extent in one place, which is why mining is automatically distributed around the world. Wherever energy is generated that cannot be used in any other way, it can be mined and monetized - a possibility that did not exist before Bitcoin.

As the Proof of Work consensus mechanism is a "winner takes it all" mechanism and other projects cannot compete with Bitcoin in this respect, more and more projects are switching to other consensus mechanisms such as Proof of Stake, which are not physically secured and are therefore only on information technology based only on information technology.

However, these consensus mechanisms are not comparable to Bitcoin in terms of security.

Proof of Stake, for example, rewards those who already own large quantities of coins, which leads to a concentration of assets and a centralized decision-making structure in the long term. An example of this is the concentration of control over validators in Ethereum after the switch to Proof of Stake.

Bitcoin is therefore practically invulnerable and uncopyable thanks to its "energy shield" - in stark contrast to altcoins, which are based purely on IT.

Other cryptocurrencies such as $ETH (+8,85%) for example, are coming under increasing competitive pressure from other, sometimes faster or cheaper coins such as $SOL (+9,01%)

In this case, one non-decentralized project faces competition from another, even less decentralized project.

The altcoins are therefore competing with each other. However, nothing comes close to Bitcoin because none of these other projects can even come close to the security and decentralization of Bitcoin. And security is the most important feature of a monetary network, which is what gives the whole thing trust - and therefore value.

What I simply want to say is:

-> Computer science can be copied, physics cannot.

The "mindblow": Bitcoin can copy, but cannot be copied

Bitcoin has an amazing ability: it can adopt good features of other cryptocurrencies, but cannot be copied itself.

While it is not possible for other projects to copy Bitcoin, as the physical layer cannot be copied, Bitcoin itself can very well adopt properties of other coins that are based purely on information technology based purely on computer science.

Taproot and SegWit show how Bitcoin integrates new technologies. While other coins advertise new functions such as smart contracts or fast payments as a unique selling point, Bitcoin integrates these features via soft forks or 2nd layer technologies such as the Lightning Network while remaining built on its solid foundation.

Bitcoin can therefore adopt future altcoin use cases - if they are found - which makes altcoins virtually obsolete.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is more than just code. It is a unique interplay of technology, energy and global acceptance that no other project can replicate.

There may be many copies, but only one true Bitcoin. And that's not just because of the computer science, but because of the fundamental principles and ecosystem that make Bitcoin a distinctive, uncopyable network.

Have a nice day!✌️🧡

#bitcoin