Solana

I wanted to ask for your opinion...

I own 1 $ETH (-1,46%) and I'm wondering if I shouldn't rather exchange everything for $BTC (+0,1%) now or at least a large part and something in $SOL (+0,89%) ?

Hey guys, how do you feel about $SOL (+0,89%) ?

Would you like more in $BTC (+0,1%) or $SOL (+0,89%) invest?

Have a nice evening

Crypto - Partial sales | Taxes

I expect a major correction at the psychologically important $100,000 mark at $BTC (+0,1%) or in Q1 at the latest (overall market).

This will also affect $SOL (+0,89%) , $ETH (-1,46%) and $AVAX (-0,95%) - my other positions. So I will start to realize partial profits.

My total crypto portfolio currently stands at just over €85,000, and I want to take around 15% of that (approx. €12,750) in profits.

-> I plan to reinvest these later as a futures position with a small leverage of 2-3x.

• I have a non-assessment certificate for 2024 (tax exemption for interest and distributions).

• However, as I have no active income, I am unsure what my personal income tax rate is - at which crypto gains are taxable under the one-year holding period.

My first major positions are expected to be tax-free from June/July 2025 (approx. €15,000-20,000).

Does this make sense, considering the rather large portion in call money (70k), which is also intended for subsequent purchases?

Does anyone have experience or a contact who is well versed in the tax treatment of crypto gains?

Credits @Testo-Investor 🫶🏼

What do you think the next few weeks or days will look like for $SOL (+0,89%) look like? Is it possible to estimate anything at all without a crystal ball 🔮?

and which indicators do you use to weigh up your assessment?

best regards ✌🏼✌🏼

My crypto exit strategy after almost a decade of crypto experience:

Before I go into my crypto strategy specifically, I would like to make it clear that crypto lives strongly on faith (momentum: it rises because it rises). That's why I think you should only invest money here that you can write off/lose immediately. A predefined strategy like the following can help you to act rationally and leave emotions aside.

Reading time: felt like an hour

Total risk of loss:

Choosing to run self-custody (own wallet) has many advantages, but the massive disadvantage that if you lose your private keys, you can't call BTC customer service and suffer a total loss. Also, there will be no new Bitcoin. It takes exactly one minute to create such a "new Bitcoin" and doesn't cost a single euro. What's more, it will be teeming with scams and ICOs - so only trust the marketcap! 99.99% of all projects will die in the long term. The higher the market cap, the more likely it is to survive, but this is never guaranteed - even BTC could go to 0 from one day to the next.

The same goes for yield on your cryptos. In principle, creating a decentralized market is a good idea, and the yields often look very attractive. But often the coins you get as rewards are massively inflated. In addition, the risk of bugs in the code is often underestimated. The latter can also lead to total losses. Impermanent loss must also be considered here, but that would be a topic for a separate post. Returns always have something to do with risk and information arbitrage: stay in the game > outperform the game.

Trading:

For 99%, it's probably smarter to take a HODL (i.e. buy-and-hold) approach with DCA/savings plan if necessary to build a position. However, this should not be done during hype phases, but when nobody is interested in crypto anymore. Trading may seem very attractive and cool, but the majority will underperform compared to the B&H strategy. Apart from the gray hair and fun in life with much more important things than charts that you save yourself.

My assessment:

In general, I think the market and performance have changed, especially due to ETFs and the infrastructure that has emerged in recent years. As a result, I think that initially this cycle could be strongly driven by institutional investors - not because the number is so high, but because they are simply very well capitalized and even a small exposure brings in a lot of capital.

I think that the psychological characteristics will remain the same: First rises $BTC (+0,1%) then the "better" Shitcoins, until in the end everything that hasn't gone up yet goes up. When I write Shitcoins, please don't feel offended - I'll explain later why I'm doing this. I hold some myself. Just a brief definition of how I differentiate between less qualitative Shitcoins and qualitative ones:

• Is there a medallion figure who is good at telling stories or talking? (Example: Charles Hoskinson at Cardano $ADA (+5,36%) similar with Ripple $XRP (+12,57%) I would say)
• Is the technology really decentralized?
• How are tokenomics designed? (This is why I always look at the market cap and not the price).
• Does it bring added value beyond the buzzword blockchain?
• How is coin distribution divided up (whale wallets)?

Cycle within a cycle:

I also think that we have already gone through this mini cycle once in the current cycle, but that it will repeat itself throughout the momentum cycle and the price swings will increase in favor of shitcoins. My theory behind this is that when BTC has risen, the excess return is sought, and that when the returns attract the new people, they often have no idea. The "stupid money" then flows increasingly into shitcoins without substance (without wishing to offend anyone, this is how I have come to use the term). That's why I also want to use the Shitcoin performance as an exit indicator.

Exit strategy:

I will sell off a maximum of 50% of my crypto holdings, as for me the performance expectation is around 50% of my investment and 50% BTC is a kind of risk hedge against the centralized financial system. I will carry out the sale in tranches of 25% each. I will use a grid bot for this. I will start as soon as the crypto share exceeds 25% of my total portfolio. I will not invest new capital in crypto for the time being, but will only expand my Shitcoin position by using a slight leverage on my margin account depending on the phase. When I talk about leverage, I don't mean 25x, but rather 1.5x - as the additional return is worth less to me in favor of my security. My motto is always: stay in the game > outperform the game.

In the end, only BTC will remain until the next hype!

My personal shitcoin sector favorites:

I think DeFi will perform strongly as substantially more security could be created in the next 6-12 months due to potential regulatory certainty. In general, however, I suspect that it doesn't really matter which coin you buy, as past experience has shown that towards the end of the cycle people will buy anything that hasn't yet made 10x - regardless of whether there is any fundamental added value.

With regard to L1, I think that $ETH (-1,46%) is currently undervalued. I see reasons for this in the fact that Vitalik Buterin is a miserable salesman (which I actually find positive), and Solana $SOL (+0,89%) can offer much lower fees at the expense of security. The ease of programming allows more dapps to be created. In general, I think that ETH is more in line with the basic idea of crypto than Solana, although it should be mentioned that Solana has gained massive adoption - for me a sign that most people have no idea what they are actually buying.

I think the SUI architecture is promising in principle, but I wouldn't overweight it - but I'm not too deep into the subject either.

L2 makes a lot of sense for ETH, but will only outperform when transaction costs are astronomical again. In general, I see transaction costs as a very good market indicator for timing as well as leverage in the market.

Memecoins:

The probability that Dogecoin $DOGE (-0,44%) continues to rise is high in my opinion. That's why I'm holding a small position. Especially if Elon Musk pushes the coin again, strong price movements could follow in the short term. If that happens, I will also buy less capitalized memecoins in the short term. However, you always have to keep this in mind: It only takes a few minutes and a few hundred dollars on networks like Solana to buy a new $PEPE (-2,26%) , $SHIB (-1,01%) or other meme coin. Such coins are often based purely on hype and momentum

Long-term outlook:

I think we are no longer early in crypto, but early in usability and institutional exposure. Only now is the real value being created as products can be used and regulatory certainty increases. I hope that the volatility of BTC will decrease due to the increasing market capitalization and that in the long run it will reflect modern digital gold rather than a risk-on asset.

In conclusion, I think that the AI theme has run its course and crypto could be the new risk-on draw - at least in the short term, as this is also fundamentally justified by potential regulation. Nevertheless, I think that AI currently offers greater fundamental added value in terms of productivity. Crypto is not really needed as long as the centralized services or fiat currencies work. Also, the majority actually has 0 added value and is only riding the crypto wave to attract capital. 99.9% do not correspond to the basic idea.

If a Blackswan event occurs, everything will be sold off in the short term, especially risk-on assets. That's why I always hold cash (currently even 20%) so that I have liquidity to buy. You should never be so naive as to believe that you are 100% right, but always stay humble, think in terms of probabilities and practice risk management!

To conclude once again:

stay in the game > outperform the game. There will be no new Bitcoin, I dare to promise that haha - everything else is speculative. The term "Shitcoin" should help you to always be aware that it is not driven by fundamental value, but by profit expectations!

Everything here is highly speculative and not investment advice, just my humble assessment after a good 8-9 years in the crypto market. Everyone please do what you think is right and don't judge others. "The only thing I can say with 100% certainty is that I can't say anything with 100% certainty": Did Einstein say that?

Congratulations on making it this far and not having a TikTok attention span. Basically, I wrote the whole thing for myself because it @JJJ inspired me to write down more of my thoughts in order to continue making rational decisions - thank you for that! Thanks also to @stefan_21 for the daily BTC education. If I'm honest: BTC is the real deal 😉

Additionally, it's important to make your investment decisions independently of any Youtube Fin or crypto influencers. For the most part, they are only out to push you into trading, as they earn money when you trade with their affiliate links on any exchanges. In general, this financial and especially crypto influencer scene is very, very lucrative due to the commissions - you should always be aware of that!

It has also helped me enormously to deal with very boring topics in order to draw conclusions about the exciting topics:

Bond market, interest rates, especially liquidity, interest rate spreads, fiscal policy, financial psychology, momentum, leverage, to name a few topics.

Of course, not everyone has the privilege of having the time to deal with these topics, but if you do, I can only recommend it. Not because I want to trade volatility or overweight bonds, but because it provides a very good understanding of the overall market and is a basic building block for risk management.

I don't know if anyone still reads here - never mind. Even if not, it has helped me. I've definitely written down enough thoughts for today, I should call my mom again.

Why $BTC (+0,1%) cannot be copied and why Bitcoin is fundamentally different from altcoins (870619)

Since the invention of Bitcoin in 2009, there have been countless imitators - from Bitcoin Cash to Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Diamond, Bitcoin SV and many more. But despite all these copies, Bitcoin itself remains the undisputed original and dominates the market capitalization of the entire crypto market.

The questions many may be asking themselves are:

• Why has no other project yet managed to replace or even seriously threaten Bitcoin?
• How can it be claimed that Bitcoin is absolutely limited when it could be copied an infinite number of times?

I will try to give you the answer to this question in today's article.

Bitcoin has often been copied, but never replaced

Bitcoin is an open source project - anyone can copy the source code, adapt it and create their own cryptocurrency. And that is exactly what has happened - countless times. The number of Bitcoin forks (spin-offs) is enormous. Especially in 2017, during the crypto boom, numerous "Bitcoin versions" emerged, including

• Bitcoin Cash
• Bitcoin Gold
• Bitcoin Diamond
• Bitcoin Pizza (yes, this really exists😂)
• etc.

Nevertheless, these projects never took off. The reason? It is not enough to copy the code of Bitcoin - the essence of Bitcoin lies much deeper - not just in the code.

What makes Bitcoin unique

(1) Decentralization

Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that is actually completely decentralized. There is no entity, no company and no leading personality that controls Bitcoin. Other projects, even the imitators, often fail because of their dependence on central developers or organizations.

(2) Network effects

Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency and has built up by far the largest ecosystem of users, nodes and miners over the years. New projects have no chance of catching up.

Example: If you want to communicate with a friend, you use a widespread network such as WhatsApp or Telegram. There's no point in developing your own app if nobody uses it. It's the same with Bitcoin - the network effect cannot be copied.

(3) The hashrate as an energy shield

The security of Bitcoin is based on the computing power (hashrate) that protects the network. Bitcoin is the most secure computer network in the world - stronger than any other blockchain project. No altcoin can mobilize nearly as much energy to secure the network against attacks. The more energy flows into the network, the more difficult it becomes to attack Bitcoin.

An attacker alone would have to mobilize more energy than the rest of the world to compromise the network - which is practically impossible.

Physics instead of just computer science: why Bitcoin cannot be copied

A common misconception is that Bitcoin is just a technical project. In reality, its strength lies not only in computer sciencebut also in physics - more precisely in the energy generated by mining.

As a result, Bitcoin has an anchor in the real world, which also ensures that the network continues to decentralize. Energy is only ever available to a limited extent in one place, which is why mining is automatically distributed around the world. Wherever energy is generated that cannot be used in any other way, it can be mined and monetized - a possibility that did not exist before Bitcoin.

As the Proof of Work consensus mechanism is a "winner takes it all" mechanism and other projects cannot compete with Bitcoin in this respect, more and more projects are switching to other consensus mechanisms such as Proof of Stake, which are not physically secured and are therefore only on information technology based only on information technology.

However, these consensus mechanisms are not comparable to Bitcoin in terms of security.

Proof of Stake, for example, rewards those who already own large quantities of coins, which leads to a concentration of assets and a centralized decision-making structure in the long term. An example of this is the concentration of control over validators in Ethereum after the switch to Proof of Stake.

Bitcoin is therefore practically invulnerable and uncopyable thanks to its "energy shield" - in stark contrast to altcoins, which are based purely on IT.

Other cryptocurrencies such as $ETH (-1,46%) for example, are coming under increasing competitive pressure from other, sometimes faster or cheaper coins such as $SOL (+0,89%)

In this case, one non-decentralized project faces competition from another, even less decentralized project.

The altcoins are therefore competing with each other. However, nothing comes close to Bitcoin because none of these other projects can even come close to the security and decentralization of Bitcoin. And security is the most important feature of a monetary network, which is what gives the whole thing trust - and therefore value.

What I simply want to say is:

-> Computer science can be copied, physics cannot.

The "mindblow": Bitcoin can copy, but cannot be copied

Bitcoin has an amazing ability: it can adopt good features of other cryptocurrencies, but cannot be copied itself.

While it is not possible for other projects to copy Bitcoin, as the physical layer cannot be copied, Bitcoin itself can very well adopt properties of other coins that are based purely on information technology based purely on computer science.

Taproot and SegWit show how Bitcoin integrates new technologies. While other coins advertise new functions such as smart contracts or fast payments as a unique selling point, Bitcoin integrates these features via soft forks or 2nd layer technologies such as the Lightning Network while remaining built on its solid foundation.

Bitcoin can therefore adopt future altcoin use cases - if they are found - which makes altcoins virtually obsolete.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is more than just code. It is a unique interplay of technology, energy and global acceptance that no other project can replicate.

There may be many copies, but only one true Bitcoin. And that's not just because of the computer science, but because of the fundamental principles and ecosystem that make Bitcoin a distinctive, uncopyable network.

Have a nice day!✌️🧡

#bitcoin

Good morning ☀️

How is it actually regulated if you sell the coin before the one-year holding period and do not transfer the money to your account, for example, but store it on the Euro Wallet in Coinbase$COIN (-7,73%) for example, do you still have to pay taxes or does anyone know? $BTC (+0,1%)
$XRP (+12,57%)
$SOL (+0,89%)

#steuern #tax office

Thanks for your help!

Your King 👑

Good old times ... $SOL (+0,89%)